The anemia-independent impact of myelodysplastic syndromes on health-related quality of life.

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are in the majority of cases characterized by anemia. Both anemia and MDS per se may directly contribute to impairments in health-related quality of life (HRQoL). In this study, we aimed to investigate the anemia-independent impact of MDS on HRQoL. We evaluated participants (≥ 50 years) from the large population-based Lifelines cohort (N = 44,694, mean age 59.0 ± 7.4 years, 43.6% male) and the European MDS Registry (EUMDS) (N = 1538, mean age 73.4 ± 9.0 years, 63.0% male), which comprises a cohort of lower-risk MDS patients. To enable comparison concerning HRQoL, SF-36 scores measured in Lifelines were converted to EQ-5D-3L index (range 0-1) and dimension scores. Lower-risk MDS patients had significantly lower HRQoL than those from the Lifelines cohort, as illustrated in both the index score and in the five different dimensions. Multivariable linear regression analysis demonstrated that MDS had an adjusted total impact on the EQ-5D index score (B = - 0.12, p < 0.001) and an anemia-independent "direct" impact (B = - 0.10, p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed an anemia-independent impact of MDS in the dimension mobility, self-care, usual activities, and anxiety/depression (all except pain/discomfort). This study demonstrates that the major part of the negative impact of lower-risk MDS on HRQoL is not mediated via anemia. Thus, the therapeutic focus should include treatment strategies directed at underlying pathogenic mechanisms to improve HRQoL, rather than aiming predominantly at increasing hemoglobin levels.

Development of a core outcome set for myelodysplastic syndromes - a Delphi study from the EUMDS Registry Group.

Treatment options for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) vary widely, depending on the natural disease course and patient-related factors. Comparison of treatment effectiveness is challenging as different endpoints have been included in clinical trials and outcome reporting. Our goal was to develop the first MDS core outcome set (MDS-COS) defining a minimum set of outcomes that should be reported in future clinical studies. We performed a comprehensive systematic literature review among MDS studies to extract patient- and/or clinically relevant outcomes. Clinical experts from the European LeukemiaNet MDS (EUMDS) identified 26 potential MDS core outcomes and participated in a three-round Delphi survey. After the first survey (56 experts), 15 outcomes met the inclusion criteria and one additional outcome was included. The second round (38 experts) resulted in six included outcomes. In the third round, a final check on plausibility and practicality of the six included outcomes and their definitions was performed. The final MDS-COS includes: health-related quality of life, treatment-related mortality, overall survival, performance status, safety, and haematological improvement. This newly developed MDS-COS represents the first minimum set of outcomes aiming to enhance comparability across future MDS studies and facilitate a better understanding of treatment effectiveness.

BiomarCaRE: rationale and design of the European BiomarCaRE project including 300,000 participants from 13 European countries.

Biomarkers are considered as tools to enhance cardiovascular risk estimation. However, the value of biomarkers on risk estimation beyond European risk scores, their comparative impact among different European regions and their role towards personalised medicine remains uncertain. Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) is an European collaborative research project with the primary objective to assess the value of established and emerging biomarkers for cardiovascular risk prediction. BiomarCaRE integrates clinical and epidemiological biomarker research and commercial enterprises throughout Europe to combine innovation in biomarker discovery for cardiovascular disease prediction with consecutive validation of biomarker effectiveness in large, well-defined primary and secondary prevention cohorts including over 300,000 participants from 13 European countries. Results from this study will contribute to improved cardiovascular risk prediction across different European populations. The present publication describes the rationale and design of the BiomarCaRE project.

Occupational therapy for persons with cognitive impairments.

Background: Damage to the central nervous system can occur in adulthood, for example, due to stroke, trauma, tumours, or chronic diseases. After damage to the central nervous system, cognitive impairments occur in addition to physical limitations. Occupational therapy is most often prescribed for neurological diagnoses, including stroke and traumatic brain injury. Methods: The health technology assessment (HTA) report this HTA article is based on investigates the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and patient-related, social and ethical aspects of occupational therapy for patients with cognitive impairments compared to no occupational therapy. In addition, the effects of different occupational therapy interventions with and without cognitive components were compared in an explorative overview. Patients with moderate or severe dementia are excluded from the assessment. Systematic overviews, that is, systematic reviews of systematic reviews, were conducted. Results: For the evaluation of clinical effectiveness, a total of nine systematic reviews were included. No systematic review was identified for the assessment of costs or cost-effectiveness. Five systematic reviews were included for the assessment of patient and social aspects. For the assessment of clinical effectiveness compared with no occupational therapy, five systematic reviews comprising 20 randomised controlled trials with a total of 1,316 subjects reported small positive effects for the outcomes "global cognitive function" and "activities of daily living" as well as a non-quantified positive effect on the outcomes "health-related quality of life" and "behavioural control". No effect was found for individual components of cognition and measures of perception. The quality of the evidence for all outcomes is low due to a high risk of bias. In the supplementary presentations, no positive effects could be demonstrated on the basis of the available evidence. The quality of this evidence was not assessed. For the assessment of patient and social aspects, five systematic reviews on patients with a stroke or a traumatic brain injury - without specification regarding cognitive deficits or studies with their relatives - were included. It was reported that patients and family caregivers go through different phases of rehabilitation in which the discharge home is a decisive turning point. The discharge home represents a crucial breaking point. Regaining an active, self-determining role is a process that requires therapists to find the right level of support for patients and relatives. For the assessment of ethical aspects, nine documents were included. We identified ethical problem-solving models for occupational therapy and 16 ethical aspects in occupational therapy for cognitive deficits. The central theme of the analysis is the limited autonomy due to the consequences of the disease as well as the resulting tensions with those treating the patient. Conclusions: Based on this systematic overview, it can neither be proven nor excluded with certainty that occupational therapy for cognitive impairment is an effective therapy for adult patients with central nervous system injuries compared to no occupational therapy. There is a lack of randomised trials with sufficient sample size, well-defined interventions, and comparable concomitant therapies in the control groups, but there is also a lack of well-designed observational studies in routine care and health economic studies. The identified systematic reviews on patient and social aspects provide information on the needs of patients after stroke or traumatic brain injury and their relatives, but there is a lack of studies on this aspect in German-speaking countries. For the ethical assessment, in addition to the identified theoretical models for solving ethical conflicts in occupational therapy, more empirical studies on ethical aspects with patients with cognitive deficits and their relatives as well as occupational therapists are needed.

Stool DNA testing for early detection of colorectal cancer: systematic review using the HTA Core Model® for Rapid Relative Effectiveness Assessment.

Background: Stool DNA testing for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a non-invasive technology with the potential to supplement established CRC screening tests. The aim of this health technology assessment was to evaluate effectiveness and safety of currently CE-marked stool DNA tests, compared to other CRC tests in CRC screening strategies in an asymptomatic screening population. Methods: The assessment was carried out following the guidelines of the European Network for Health Technology Assessment (EUnetHTA). This included a systematic literature search in MED-LINE, Cochrane and EMBASE in 2018. Manufacturers were asked to provide additional data. Five patient interviews helped assessing potential ethical or social aspects and patients' experiences and preferences. We assessed the risk of bias using QUADAS-2, and the quality of the body of evidence using GRADE. Results: We identified three test accuracy studies, two of which investigated a multitarget stool DNA test (Cologuard®, compared fecal immunochemical test (FIT)) and one a combined DNA stool assay (ColoAlert®, compared to guaiac-based fecal occult blood test (gFOBT), Pyruvate Kinase Isoenzyme Type M2 (M2-PK) and combined gFOBT/M2-PK). We found five published surveys on patient satisfaction. No primary study investigating screening effects on CRC incidence or on overall mortality was found. Both stool DNA tests showed in direct comparison higher sensitivity for the detection of CRC and (advanced) adenoma compared to FIT, or gFOBT, respectively, but had lower specificity. However, these comparative results may depend on the exact type of FIT used. The reported test failure rates were higher for stool DNA testing than for FIT. The certainty of evidence was moderate to high for Cologuard® studies, and low to very low for the ColoAlert® study which refers to a former version of the product and yielded no direct evidence on the test accuracy for ad-vanced versus non-advanced adenoma. Conclusions: ColoAlert® is the only stool DNA test currently sold in Europe and is available at a lower price than Cologuard®, but reliable evidence is lacking. A screening study including the current product version of ColoAlert® and suitable comparators would, therefore, help evaluate the effectiveness of this screening option in a European context.

Determinants of low health-related quality of life in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes: EUMDS Registry study.

Patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) frequently experience a significant symptom burden, which reduces health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We aimed to identify determinants of low HRQoL in patients recently diagnosed with MDS, for guiding early intervention strategies. We evaluated longitudinal data in 2205 patients with MDS during their first year after diagnosis. Median values of EQ-5D 3-level (EQ-5D-3L) index (0.78) and visual analog scale (VAS) score (0.70) were used as thresholds for low HRQoL. In addition, the 5 dimensions of EQ-5D-3L were analyzed for impairments (any level vs "no problem" category). After multiple imputation of missing values, we used generalized estimating equations (GEE) to estimate odds ratios (OR) for univariable determinant screening (P < .15), and to subsequently derive multivariable models for low HRQoL with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Multivariable GEE analysis showed the following independent determinants (OR, 95% CI) for low EQ-5D index: increased age (60-75 years: 1.33, 1.01-1.75; >75: 1.84, 1.39-2.45), female sex (1.70, 1.43-2.03), high serum ferritin level (≥1000 vs ≤300 µg/L: 1.41, 1.06-1.87), comorbidity burden (per unit: 1.11, 1.02-1.20), and reduced Karnofsky performance status (KPS, per 10 units: 0.62, 0.58-0.67). For low VAS score, additional determinants were transfusion dependence (1.53, 1.03-2.29), low hemoglobin <10 g/dL (1.34, 1.12-1.61), and high body mass index (≥30 vs 23-29.9 kg/m2: 1.26, 1.02-1.57). Sex, KPS, comorbidity burden, hemoglobin count, and transfusion burden were determinants for all EQ-5D dimensions. Low HRQoL is determined by multiple factors, which should be considered in the management and shared decision making of patients with MDS. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00600860.

Decision-analytic modeling for early health technology assessment of medical devices - a scoping review.

Objective: The goal of this review was to identify decision-analytic modeling studies in early health technology assessments (HTA) of high-risk medical devices, published over the last three years, and to provide a systematic overview of model purposes and characteristics. Additionally, the aim was to describe recent developments in modeling techniques. Methods: For this scoping review, we performed a systematic literature search in PubMed and Embase including studies published in English or German. The search code consisted of terms describing early health technology assessment and terms for decision-analytic models. In abstract and full-text screening, studies were excluded that were not modeling studies for a high-risk medical device or an in-vitro diagnostic test. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) flow diagram was used to report on the search and exclusion of studies. For all included studies, study purpose, framework and model characteristics were extracted and reported in systematic evidence tables and a narrative summary. Results: Out of 206 identified studies, 19 studies were included in the review. Studies were either conducted for hypothetical devices or for existing devices after they were already available on the market. No study extrapolated technical data from early development stages to estimate potential value of devices in development. All studies except one included cost as an outcome. Two studies were budget impact analyses. Most studies aimed at adoption and reimbursement decisions. The majority of studies were on in-vitro diagnostic tests for personalized and targeted medicine. A timed automata model, to our knowledge a model type new to HTA, was tested by one study. It describes the agents in a clinical pathway in separate models and, by allowing for interaction between the models, can reflect complex individual clinical pathways and dynamic system interactions. Not all sources of uncertainty for in-vitro tests were explicitly modeled. Elicitation of expert knowledge and judgement was used for substitution of missing empirical data. Analysis of uncertainty was the most valuable strength of decision-analytic models in early HTA, but no model applied sensitivity analysis to optimize the test positivity cutoff with regard to the benefit-harm balance or cost-effectiveness. Value-of-information analysis was rarely performed. No information was found on the use of causal inference methods for estimation of effect parameters from observational data. Conclusion: Our review provides an overview of the purposes and model characteristics of nineteen recent early evaluation studies on medical devices. The review shows the growing importance of personalized interventions and confirms previously published recommendations for careful modeling of uncertainties surrounding diagnostic devices and for increased use of value-of-information analysis. Timed automata may be a model type worth exploring further in HTA. In addition, we recommend to extend the application of sensitivity analysis to optimize positivity criteria for in-vitro tests with regard to benefit-harm or cost-effectiveness. We emphasize the importance of causal inference methods when estimating effect parameters from observational data.

Familial hypercholesterolemia: A systematic review of modeling studies on screening interventions.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: FH is still underdiagnosed. Cost-effectiveness results of preventive screening strategies vary. We aimed at systematically assessing the benefits, harms and cost effectiveness of screening for familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) and at providing an overview of the main characteristics and methodological approaches of applied decision-analytic models. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted in MEDLINE, EconLit, CRD-databases and the CEA-registry for FH screening starting 2012. Earlier studies were included from a published systematic review. Results were reported in standardized semi-quantitative evidence tables. Costs were converted to current euros. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were recalculated according to economic guidelines. RESULTS: Out of our 211 retrieved studies, eight were included in the review in addition to six studies from an earlier review. Studies were conducted in Europe (UK, The Netherlands, Spain, Poland), USA and Australia evaluating cascade (CS), opportunistic (OS), universal screening (UniS), or combinations using genetic testing, clinical criteria or combinations. Studies evaluating only CS identified strategies with an ICER of up to 37,100 EUR/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) but some strategies were dominated depending on test combinations. UniS of newborns in combination with CS had an ICER≤15,000 EUR/QALY for sequential cholesterol-genetic screening. In other studies, UniS was dominated by OS/CS. CONCLUSIONS: Our systematic review demonstrates the values of FH screening and provides an overview of potentially relevant screening strategies to be tested using a decision-analytic model for the respective country or region. Future research is needed on the transferability of results to other countries and modeling spillover effects to newborns.

Causal evidence in health decision making: methodological approaches of causal inference and health decision science.

Objectives: Public health decision making is a complex process based on thorough and comprehensive health technology assessments involving the comparison of different strategies, values and tradeoffs under uncertainty. This process must be based on best available evidence and plausible assumptions. Causal inference and health decision science are two methodological approaches providing information to help guide decision making in health care. Both approaches are quantitative methods that use statistical and modeling techniques and simplifying assumptions to mimic the complexity of the real world. We intend to review and lay out both disciplines with their aims, strengths and limitations based on a combination of textbook knowledge and expert experience. Methods: To help understanding and differentiating the methodological approaches of causal inference and health decision science, we reviewed both methods with the focus on aims, research questions, methods, assumptions, limitations and challenges, and software. For each methodological approach, we established a group of four experts from our own working group to carefully review and summarize each method, followed by structured discussion rounds and written reviews, in which the experts from all disciplines including HTA and medicine were involved. The entire expert group discussed objectives, strengths and limitations of both methodological areas, and potential synergies. Finally, we derived recommendations for further research and provide a brief outlook on future trends. Results: Causal inference methods aim for drawing causal conclusions from empirical data on the relationship of pre-specified interventions on a specific target outcome and apply a counterfactual framework and statistical techniques to derive causal effects of exposures or interventions from these data. Causal inference is based on a causal diagram, more specifically, a directed acyclic graph (DAG), which encodes the assumptions regarding the causal relations between variables. Depending on the type of confounding and selection bias, traditional statistical methods or more complex g-methods are needed to derive valid causal effects. Besides the correct specification of the DAG and the statistical model, assumptions such as consistency, positivity, and exchangeability must be checked when aiming at causal inference. Health decision science aims for guiding policy decision making regarding health interventions considering and balancing multiple competing objectives of a decision based on data from multiple sources and studies, for example prevalence studies, clinical trials and long-term observational routine effectiveness studies, and studies on preferences and costs. It involves decision analysis, a systematic, explicit and quantitative framework to guide decisions under uncertainty. Decision analyses are based on decision-analytic models to mimic the course of disease as well as aspects and consequences of the intervention in order to quantitatively optimize the decision. Depending on the type of decision problem, decision trees, state-transition models, discrete event simulation models, dynamic transmission models, or other model types are applied. Models must be validated against observed data, and comprehensive sensitivity analyses must be performed to assess uncertainty. Besides the appropriate choice of the model type and the valid specification of the model structure, it must be checked if input parameters of effects can be interpreted as causal parameters in the model. Otherwise results will be biased. Conclusions: Both causal inference and health decision science aim for providing best causal evidence for informed health decision making. The strengths and limitations of both methods differ and a good understanding of both methods is essential for correct application but also for correct interpretation of findings from the described methods. Importantly, decision-analytic modeling should be combined with causal inference when developing guidance and recommendations regarding decisions on health care interventions.

Core set of patient-reported outcomes for myelodysplastic syndromes: an EUMDS Delphi study involving patients and hematologists.

Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are relevant and valuable end points in the care of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). However, a consensus-based selection of PROs for MDS, derived by both patients and hematologists, is lacking. We aimed to develop a core set of PROs for patients with MDS as part of the prospective European LeukemiaNet MDS (EUMDS) Registry. According to international guidelines, candidate PROs were identified from a comprehensive literature search of MDS studies. Overall, 40 PROs were selected and evaluated in a two-round Delphi survey by 40 patients with MDS and 38 hematologists in the first round and 38 patients and 32 hematologists in the second round. Based on an agreement scale and predefined inclusion criteria, both patients and hematologists selected "general quality of life" as a core PRO. Hematologists also selected "transfusion-dependency burden" and "ability to work/activities of daily living" as core PROs. The second Delphi round increased PRO rating agreements. Statistically significant rating differences between patients and hematologists were observed for 28 PROs (Mann-Whitney U test; P < .05) in the first round and for 19 PROs in the second round, with "disease knowledge" and "confidence in health care services" rated notably higher by patients. The overall mean PRO ratings correlation between the 2 groups was moderate (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient = 0.5; P < .05). This first consensus on a core set of PROs jointly developed by patients and hematologists forms the basis for patient-centered care in daily practice and clinical research.

Benefits and Harms of a Prevention Program for Iodine Deficiency Disorders: Predictions of the Decision-Analytic EUthyroid Model.

Background: Iodine deficiency is one of the most prevalent causes of intellectual disability and can lead to impaired thyroid function and other iodine deficiency disorders (IDDs). Despite progress made on eradicating iodine deficiency in the last decades in Europe, IDDs are still prevalent. Currently, evidence-based information on the benefit/harm balance of IDD prevention in Europe is lacking. We developed a decision-analytic model and conducted a public health decision analysis for the long-term net benefit of a mandatory IDD prevention program for the German population with moderate iodine deficiency, as a case example for a European country. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model simulating the incidence and consequences of IDDs in the absence or presence of a mandatory IDD prevention program (iodine fortification of salt) in an open population with current demographic characteristics in Germany and with moderate ID. We collected data on the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and quality of life from European studies for all health states of the model. Our primary net-benefit outcome was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) predicted over a period of 120 years. In addition, we calculated incremental life years and disease events over time. We performed a systematic and comprehensive uncertainty assessment using multiple deterministic one-way sensitivity analyses. Results: In the base-case analysis, the IDD prevention program is more beneficial than no prevention, both in terms of QALYs and life years. Health gains predicted for the open cohort over a time horizon of 120 years for the German population (82.2 million inhabitants) were 33 million QALYs and 5 million life years. Nevertheless, prevention is not beneficial for all individuals since it causes additional hyperthyroidism (2.7 million additional cases). Results for QALY gains were stable in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: IDD prevention via mandatory iodine fortification of salt increases quality-adjusted life expectancy in a European population with moderate ID, and is therefore beneficial on a population level. However, further ethical aspects should be considered before implementing a mandatory IDD prevention program. Costs for IDD prevention and treatment should be determined to evaluate the cost effectiveness of IDD prevention.

The economic impact of prevention, monitoring and treatment strategies for iodine deficiency disorders in Germany.

OBJECTIVE: More than 30% of the German population suffers from mild to moderate iodine deficiency causing goiter and other iodine deficiency disorders (IDDs). The economic burden of iodine deficiency is still unclear. We aimed to assess costs for prevention, monitoring and treatment of IDDs in Germany. DESIGN: We performed a comprehensive cost analysis. METHODS: We assessed direct medical costs and direct non-medical costs for inpatient and outpatient care of IDDs and costs for productivity loss due to the absence of work in 2018. Additionally, we calculated total costs for an IDD prevention program comprising universal salt iodization (USI). We performed threshold analyses projecting how many cases of IDDs or related treatments would need to be avoided for USI to be cost-saving. RESULTS: Annual average costs per case in the year of diagnosis were € 211 for goiter/thyroid nodules; € 308 for hyperthyroidism; and € 274 for hypothyroidism. Average one-time costs for thyroidectomy were € 4184 and € 3118 for radioiodine therapy. Average costs for one case of spontaneous abortion were € 916. Annual costs of intellectual disability were € 14,202. In the German population, total annual costs for USI would amount to 8 million Euro. To be cost-saving, USI would need to prevent, for example, 37,900 cases of goiter/thyroid nodules. CONCLUSION: USI potentially saves costs, if a minimum amount of IDDs per year could be avoided. In order to recommend the implementation of USI, a full health-economic evaluation including a comprehensive benefit-harm assessment is needed.

Cost-Effectiveness of Early Detection and Prevention Strategies for Endometrial Cancer-A Systematic Review.

Endometrial cancer is the most common female genital tract cancer in developed countries. We systematically reviewed the current health-economic evidence on early detection and prevention strategies for endometrial cancer based on a search in relevant databases (Medline/Embase/Cochrane Library/CRD/EconLit). Study characteristics and results including life-years gained (LYG), quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were summarized in standardized evidence tables. Economic results were transformed into 2019 euros using standard conversion methods (GDP-PPP, CPI). Seven studies were included, evaluating (1) screening for endometrial cancer in women with different risk profiles, (2) risk-reducing interventions for women at increased or high risk for endometrial cancer, and (3) genetic testing for germline mutations followed by risk-reducing interventions for diagnosed mutation carriers. Compared to no screening, screening with transvaginal sonography (TVS), biomarker CA-125, and endometrial biopsy yielded an ICER of 43,600 EUR/LYG (95,800 EUR/QALY) in women with Lynch syndrome at high endometrial cancer risk. For women considering prophylactic surgery, surgery was more effective and less costly than screening. In obese women, prevention using Levonorgestrel as of age 30 for five years had an ICER of 72,000 EUR/LYG; the ICER for using oral contraceptives for five years as of age 50 was 450,000 EUR/LYG. Genetic testing for mutations in women at increased risk for carrying a mutation followed by risk-reducing surgery yielded ICERs below 40,000 EUR/QALY. Based on study results, preventive surgery in mutation carriers and genetic testing in women at increased risk for mutations are cost-effective. Except for high-risk women, screening using TVS and endometrial biopsy is not cost-effective and may lead to overtreatment. Model-based analyses indicate that future biomarker screening in women at increased risk for cancer may be cost-effective, dependent on high test accuracy and moderate test costs. Future research should reveal risk-adapted early detection and prevention strategies for endometrial cancer.

Long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening for hepatitis C virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is an emerging problem in public health. In most countries, the majority of HCV infected people are yet undiagnosed. Early detection and treatment may result in better health outcomes and save costs by preventing future advanced liver disease. The evidence for long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HCV screening was systematically reviewed. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search on long-term health-economic effects of HCV screening and included Health Technology Assessment (HTA) reports, systematic reviews, long-term clinical trials, full health economic and decision-analytic modelling studies with a sufficiently long time horizon and patient-relevant long-term outcomes such as life-years gained (LYG) or quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. Economic results were converted to 2005 Euros. RESULTS: Seven studies were included. Target population, HCV prevalence, study perspective, discount rate, screening and antiviral treatment mode varied. The incremental effectiveness of HCV screening and early treatment compared to no screening and standard care varied from 0.0004 to 0.066 LYG, and from 0.0001 to 0.072 QALY. Incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility ratios of HCV screening vs. no screening were 3900-243,700 euro/LYG and 18,300-1,151,000 euro/QALY. HCV screening seems to be cost-effective in populations with high HCV prevalence, but not in low HCV prevalence populations. CONCLUSIONS: HCV screening and early treatment have the potential to improve average life-expectancy, but should focus on populations with elevated HCV prevalence to be cost-effective. Further research on the long-term health-economic impact of HCV screening when combined with appropriate monitoring strategies in different European health care systems is needed.

Budget Impact Analysis of Cancer Screening: A Methodological Review.

BACKGROUND: Budget impact analyses (BIAs) describe changes in intervention- and disease-related costs of new technologies. Evidence on the quality of BIAs for cancer screening is lacking. OBJECTIVES: We systematically reviewed the literature and methods to assess how closely BIA guidelines are followed when BIAs are performed for cancer-screening programs. DATA SOURCES: Systematic searches were conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit, CRD (Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York), and CEA registry of the Tufts Medical Center. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Eligible studies were BIAs evaluating cancer-screening programs published in English, 2010-2018. SYNTHESIS METHODS: Standardized evidence tables were generated to extract and compare study characteristics outlined by the ISPOR BIA Task Force. RESULTS: Nineteen studies were identified evaluating screening for breast (5), colorectal (6), cervical (3), lung (1), prostate (3), and skin (1) cancers. Model designs included decision-analytic models (13) and simple cost calculators (6). From all studies, only 53% reported costs for a minimum of 3 years, 58% compared to a mix of screening options, 42% reported model validation, and 37% reported uncertainty analysis for participation rates. The quality of studies appeared to be independent of cancer site. LIMITATIONS: "Gray" literature was not searched, misinterpretation is possible due to limited information in publications, and focus was on international methodological guidelines rather than regional guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Our review highlights considerable variability in the extent to which BIAs evaluating cancer-screening programs followed recommended guidelines. The annual budget impact at least over the next 3-5 years should be estimated. Validation and uncertainty analysis should always be conducted. Continued dissemination efforts of existing best-practice guidelines are necessary to ensure high-quality analyses.

Alternative Conversion Methods for Transition Probabilities in State-Transition Models: Validity and Impact on Comparative Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness.

Background. In state-transition models (STMs), decision problems are conceptualized using health states and transitions among those health states after predefined time cycles. The naive, commonly applied method (C) for cycle length conversion transforms all transition probabilities separately. In STMs with more than 2 health states, this method is not accurate. Therefore, we aim to describe and compare the performance of method C with that of alternative matrix transformation methods. Design. We compare 2 alternative matrix transformation methods (Eigenvalue method [E], Schure-Padé method [SP]) to method C applied in an STM of 3 different treatment strategies for women with breast cancer. We convert the given annual transition matrix into a monthly-cycle matrix and evaluate induced transformation errors for the transition matrices and the long-term outcomes: life years, quality-adjusted life-years, costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and the performance related to the decisions. In addition, we applied these transformation methods to randomly generated annual transition matrices with 4, 7, 10, and 20 health states. Results. In theory, there is no generally applicable correct transformation method. Based on our simulations, SP resulted in the smallest transformation-induced discrepancies for generated annual transition matrices for 2 treatment strategies. E showed slightly smaller discrepancies than SP in the strategy, where one of the direct transitions between health states was excluded. For long-term outcomes, the largest discrepancy occurred for estimated costs applying method C. For higher dimensional models, E performs best. Conclusions. In our modeling examples, matrix transformations (E, SP) perform better than transforming all transition probabilities separately (C). Transition probabilities based on alternative conversion methods should therefore be applied in sensitivity analyses.

Guidance for a causal comparative effectiveness analysis emulating a target trial based on big real world evidence: when to start statin treatment.

Aim: The aim of this project is to describe a causal (counterfactual) approach for analyzing when to start statin treatment to prevent cardiovascular disease using real-world evidence. Methods: We use directed acyclic graphs to operationalize and visualize the causal research question considering selection bias, potential time-independent and time-dependent confounding. We provide a study protocol following the 'target trial' approach and describe the data structure needed for the causal assessment. Conclusion: The study protocol can be applied to real-world data, in general. However, the structure and quality of the database play an essential role for the validity of the results, and database-specific potential for bias needs to be explicitly considered.

Decision-analytic evaluation of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of management programmes in chronic heart failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: While management programmes (MPs) for chronic heart failure (CHF) are clinically effective, their cost-effectiveness remains uncertain. Thus, this study sought to determine the cost-effectiveness of MPs. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed a Markov model to estimate life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, lifetime costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness of MPs as compared to standard care. Standard care was defined by the EuroHeart Failure Survey for Germany, MP efficacy was derived from our recent meta-analysis and cost estimates were based on the German healthcare system. For a population with a mean age 67 years (35% female) at onset of CHF, our model predicted an average quality-adjusted life expectancy of 2.64 years for standard care and 2.83 years for MP. MP yielded additional lifetime costs of euro1700 resulting in an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of euro8900 (95% CI: dominant to 177,100) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the ICUR was sensitive to age and sex. CONCLUSION: MPs increase life expectancy in patients with CHF by an average of 84 days and increase lifetime cost of care by approximately euro1700. MPs improve outcomes in a cost-effective manner, although they are not cost-saving on a lifetime horizon.

Recommendations for primary studies evaluating therapeutic medical devices were identified and systematically reported through reviewing existing guidance.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to review existing recommendations on study design, conduct, analysis, and reporting for primary studies of therapeutic medical devices (TMDs) and the closely related field of interventional procedures. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We performed a targeted literature review of publications with recommendations for study design, conduct, analysis, and reporting for primary studies of TMDs and related technologies. We combined an electronic database search with a systematic screening of tables of content of selected journals and scanning the reference lists of relevant articles. RESULTS: We identified 40 publications authored or commissioned primarily by regulators, health technology assessment agencies, and expert groups. We identified study designs of randomized clinical trials that specifically address the quick, incremental development of TMDs and provider and patient preferences. The importance of contextual factors for TMD interventions should be considered during the selection of patients, providers, and centers, as well as in data collection and analysis. We also identified guidance for the analysis and quantification of learning curves as well as for the design and analysis of large registries of high quality. CONCLUSION: The methodology to conduct primary research for TMDs should be disseminated to support improvement of the evidence base for health technology assessments.

Ten recommendations for assessing the comparative effectiveness of therapeutic medical devices: a targeted review and adaptation.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to review existing guidance on the methods for evaluation of the comparative effectiveness (CE) of therapeutic medical devices (TMDs) and develop recommendations for systematic reviews (SRs) of CE of TMDs as part of health technology assessments. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We performed a targeted literature review of evaluation frameworks and recommendations for evaluation methods for TMDs and related technologies. An electronic database search was combined with systematic screening of tables of content of selected journals and scanning the reference lists of relevant papers. RESULTS: We identified a framework for SRs of complex interventions (FSRCIs) and three documents providing detailed methodology for TMD evaluation. We applied the FSRCIs to TMD evaluation taking into account the more complex composition of the intervention, its rapid, incremental development, as well as the dependency of treatment effects on contextual factors and user proficiency. In 10 recommendations, including a template for a logic model for TMD, we summarized relevant factors that should be systematically considered. CONCLUSION: The quality of SRs of CE assessments of TMDs can be improved by applying these recommendations. This also may require an increase of the quality of primary studies.