Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pharmacologic Treatments for Children: Research Priorities and Approach to Pediatric Studies.

Clinical trials of pharmacologic treatments of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are being rapidly designed and implemented in adults. Children are often not considered during development of novel treatments for infectious diseases until very late. Although children appear to have a lower risk compared with adults of severe COVID-19 disease, a substantial number of children globally will benefit from pharmacologic treatments. It will be reasonable to extrapolate efficacy of most treatments from adult trials to children. Pediatric trials should focus on characterizing a treatment's pharmacokinetics, optimal dose, and safety across the age spectrum. These trials should use an adaptive design to efficiently add or remove arms in what will be a rapidly evolving treatment landscape, and should involve a large number of sites across the globe in a collaborative effort to facilitate efficient implementation. All stakeholders must commit to equitable access to any effective, safe treatment for children everywhere.

Two Cases Illustrating the Diagnostic Challenge of Pediatric Blastomycosis Presenting as Osteomyelitis.

Blastomyces dermatitidis is a dimorphic fungus endemic to the United States and Canada. Although both Histoplasma and Blastomyces are found in similar geographic regions, Blastomyces is many times more likely to cause dissemination in the immunocompetent host, frequently involving the bone. However, given the indolent nature of this fungal infection and more prevalent bacterial etiologies of osteomyelitis, diagnosis and treatment are often significantly delayed. We review 2 pediatric cases that initially presented with isolated orthopedic symptoms without documented fever or pulmonary complaints, although both had signs of pulmonary infection on imaging. These cases demonstrate the importance of a high level of suspicion as well as appropriate diagnostic workup, including surgical pathology with fungal stains, when evaluating osteomyelitis in patients exposed to a Blastomyces-endemic region.

Update in Pediatric Musculoskeletal Infections: When It Is, When It Isn't, and What to Do.

Musculoskeletal infections, including osteomyelitis, septic arthritis, and pyomyositis, are a substantial cause of morbidity in children and adolescents. The increased virulence of infectious agents and the increased prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens, particularly methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, have resulted in a more complicated clinical course for diagnosis and management, which is evidenced by an increased length of hospital stays, incidence of complications, and number of surgical interventions. Musculoskeletal infections are a challenge for surgeons because they vary substantially in their presentation and in their required treatment, which is based on the causative organism, the location of the infection, and the age of the patient. The necessity for a prompt diagnosis is complicated by several diseases that may mimic musculoskeletal infection, including transient synovitis, autoimmune arthritis, and tumors. Recent innovations in diagnosis and management have provided surgeons with new options to differentiate musculoskeletal infections from these rapidly evolving disease pathologies. As diagnostic and treatment modalities improve, collaboration among surgeons from multiple disciplines is required to develop evidence-based clinical practice guidelines that minimize the effect of musculoskeletal infection and optimize clinical outcomes for patients.

Widespread Bordetella parapertussis Infections-Wisconsin, 2011-2012: Clinical and Epidemiologic Features and Antibiotic Use for Treatment and Prevention.

BACKGROUND: During October 2011-December 2012, concurrent with a statewide pertussis outbreak, 443 Bordetella parapertussis infections were reported among Wisconsin residents. We examined clinical features of patients with parapertussis and the effect of antibiotic use for treatment and prevention. METHODS: Patients with polymerase chain reaction results positive for B. parapertussis reported during October 2011-May 2012 were interviewed regarding presence and durations of pertussis-like symptoms and receipt of azithromycin treatment. Data regarding acute cough illnesses and receipt of azithromycin prophylaxis among parapertussis patient household members (HHMs) were also collected. Using multivariate repeated measures log-binomial regression analysis, we examined associations of treatment receipt by the HHM with the earliest illness onset and prophylaxis receipt among other HHMs with the presence of any secondary cough illnesses in the household. RESULTS: Among 218 patients with parapertussis, pertussis-like symptoms were frequently reported. Illness durations were significantly shorter among patients with treatment initiated 0-6 days after cough onset, compared with nonrecipients (median durations: 10 vs 19 days, P = .002). Among 361 HHMs from 120 households, compared with nonrecipients, prompt prophylaxis of HHMs was associated with no secondary cough illnesses (relative risk: 0.16; 95% confidence interval, .04-.69). CONCLUSIONS: Bordetella parapertussis infection causes pertussis-like illness that might be misclassified as pertussis if B. parapertussis testing is not performed. Prompt treatment might shorten illness duration, and prompt HHM prophylaxis might prevent secondary illnesses. Further study is needed to evaluate antibiotic effectiveness for preventing parapertussis and to determine risks and benefits of antibiotic use.

Pertussis and Influenza Vaccination Among Insured Pregnant Women ­ Wisconsin, 2013-2014.

On February 22, 2013, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) revised recommendations for vaccination of pregnant women to recommend tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) during every pregnancy, optimally at 27-36 weeks of gestation, to prevent pertussis among their newborns. Since 2004, influenza vaccination has been recommended for pregnant women in any trimester to prevent influenza and associated complications for mother and newborn. To evaluate vaccination of pregnant women in Wisconsin after the 2013 Tdap recommendation, health insurance claims data for approximately 49% of Wisconsin births were analyzed. The percentage of women who received Tdap during pregnancy increased from 13.8% of women delivering during January 2013 (63.1% of whom received Tdap 2-13 weeks before delivery) to 51.0% of women delivering during March 2014 (90.9% of whom received Tdap 2-13 weeks before delivery). Among women delivering during November 2013-March 2014, 49.4% had received influenza vaccine during pregnancy. After the 2013 recommendation, Tdap vaccination among pregnant women increased but plateaued at rates similar to influenza vaccination rates. Prenatal care providers should implement, evaluate, and improve Tdap and influenza vaccination programs, and strongly recommend that pregnant patients receive these vaccines to prevent severe illness and complications among mothers and infants.

Completeness and accuracy of the wisconsin immunization registry: an evaluation coinciding with the beginning of meaningful use.

CONTEXT: Vaccination coverage rates can be improved through the application of complete and accurate immunization information systems (IISs). OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the completeness and accuracy of Wisconsin's IIS, the Wisconsin Immunization Registry (WIR). DESIGN: Cross-sectional evaluation, comparing vaccination medical records (MRs) from provider clinics with WIR records. PARTICIPANTS: Medical records of patients born during 2009 were randomly selected from 251 Wisconsin clinics associated with the Vaccines for Children Program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Completeness: percentage of patients with client records in the WIR, percentage of patients up-to-date (%UTD) with the 4:3:1:3:3:1:4 vaccination series, and percentage of patients' MR vaccinations matched by administration date (±10 days) and type to vaccinations documented in the WIR. Accuracy: percentages of matched vaccinations with the same administration date, same trade name (TN), and same lot number. RESULTS: Of the 1863 selected patient MRs, 98% (n = 1833) had WIR client records and 97% of their 30 899 vaccinations were documented in the WIR. The %UTD was 49.3% using the MR only, 76.5% using the WIR only, and 75.2% as estimated by the National Immunization Survey. Among matched vaccinations, 99% had the same administration date, 96% had the same TN, and 95% had the same lot number. Compared with patients from clinics that entered data into the WIR using data exchange from electronic health records, patients from clinics that entered data using the Web-based user interface were less likely to have client records in the WIR (odds ratio: 0.3; 95% confidence interval: 0.1-0.9) and less likely to have accurate TNs (odds ratio: 0.3; 95% confidence interval: 0.1-0.5). CONCLUSIONS: The WIR was complete and accurate among this sample of children born during 2009 and provided a vaccination coverage assessment similar to the National Immunization Survey. Our results provide support for the expectation that meaningful use and other initiatives that increase data exchange from electronic health records to IISs will improve IIS data quality.

Estimating the effectiveness of tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) for preventing pertussis: evidence of rapidly waning immunity and difference in effectiveness by Tdap brand.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) for preventing pertussis among adolescents during a statewide outbreak of pertussis in Wisconsin during 2012. METHODS: We used the population-based Wisconsin Immunization Registry (WIR) to construct a cohort of Wisconsin residents born during 1998-2000 and collect Tdap vaccination histories. Reports of laboratory-confirmed pertussis with onset during 2012 were matched to WIR clients. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of pertussis and Tdap VE estimates [(1 - IRR)*100%], by year of Tdap vaccine receipt and brand (Boostrix/Adacel), were estimated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Tdap VE decreased with increasing time since receipt, with VEs of 75.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 55.2%-86.5%) for receipt during 2012, 68.2% (95% CI, 60.9%-74.1%) for receipt during 2011, 34.5% (95% CI, 19.9%-46.4%) for receipt during 2010, and 11.9% (95% CI, -11.1% to 30.1%) for receipt during 2009/2008; point estimates were higher among Boostrix recipients than among Adacel recipients. Among Tdap recipients, increasing time since receipt was associated with increased risk, and receipt of Boostrix (vs Adacel) was associated with decreased risk of pertussis (adjusted IRR, 0.62 [95% CI, .52-.74]). CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate waning immunity following vaccination with either Tdap brand. Boostrix was more effective than Adacel in preventing pertussis in our cohort, but these findings may not be generalizable to adolescent cohorts that received different diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccines (DTaP) during childhood and should be further examined in studies that include childhood DTaP history.

Using a bayesian latent class model to evaluate the utility of investigating persons with negative polymerase chain reaction results for pertussis.

Pertussis remains difficult to control. Imperfect sensitivity of diagnostic tests and lack of specific guidance regarding interpretation of negative test results among patients with compatible symptoms may contribute to its spread. In this study, we examined whether additional pertussis cases could be identified if persons with negative pertussis test results were routinely investigated. We conducted interviews among 250 subjects aged ≤18 years with pertussis polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results reported from 2 reference laboratories in Wisconsin during July-September 2010 to determine whether their illnesses met the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's clinical case definition (CCD) for pertussis. PCR validity measures were calculated using the CCD as the standard for pertussis disease. Two Bayesian latent class models were used to adjust the validity measures for pertussis detectable by 1) culture alone and 2) culture and/or more sensitive measures such as serology. Among 190 PCR-negative subjects, 54 (28%) had illnesses meeting the CCD. In adjusted analyses, PCR sensitivity and the negative predictive value were 1) 94% and 99% and 2) 43% and 87% in the 2 types of models, respectively. The models suggested that public health follow-up of reported pertussis patients with PCR-negative results leads to the detection of more true pertussis cases than follow-up of PCR-positive persons alone. The results also suggest a need for a more specific pertussis CCD.

Pediatric global health education: correlation of website information and curriculum.

OBJECTIVE: Web sites describing residency programs are initial sources of information for applicants. The correlation of global health content on pediatric residency program Web sites with reported curricula is unknown. To determine the accuracy of global health education, information on program Web sites was compared with queried program content responses. STUDY DESIGN: The Fellowship and Residency Electronic Interactive Database was used to assess pediatric residency programs' Web sites for global health education, applying American Academy of Pediatrics consensus guidelines. The authors developed a questionnaire using these consensus guidelines and contacted each program to assess Web site findings, and χ(2) tests were used to compare data from these 2 sources. RESULTS: Of 194 programs, 177 had operational Web sites, of which 98 participated in the questionnaire (55%). Ninety-three of 177 programs (53%) reported global health education on Web sites, whereas 80 of 98 programs (82%) reported global health education through direct questioning (P < .001). Results include provision of resident salaries during global health elective (Web site 5% vs questionnaire 98%, P < .001), mandatory training before global health elective (8% vs 20%, P = .02), presence of global health elective curriculum (24% vs 75%, P < .001), postexperience debriefing (16% vs 29%, P = .05), and bidirectional resident exchange (2% vs 13%, P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate continued expansion of pediatric global health education, but significant differences exist between information on Web sites and data obtained through direct questioning. Accurate representation of global health opportunities would allow for more informed decision-making among prospective applicants. Findings also suggest substantial variability in global health curricula that needs to be addressed through improved planning and cooperation among training programs.

Health facility assessments of cervical cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment services in Gulu, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is ranked globally in the top three cancers for women younger than 45 years, with the average age of death at 59 years of age. The highest burden of disease is in low-to-middle income countries (LMICs), responsible for 90% of the 311,000 cervical cancer deaths in 2018. This growing health disparity is due to the lack of quality screening and treatment programs, low human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination rates, and high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection rates. To address these gaps in care, we need to develop a clear understanding of the resources and capabilities of LMICs' health care facilities to provide prevention, early diagnosis through screening, and treatment for cervical cancer. OBJECTIVES: This project aimed to assess baseline available cervical cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment resources, at facilities designated as Health Center III or above, in Gulu, Uganda. METHODS: We adapted the World Health Organization's Harmonized Health Facility Assessment for our own HFA and grading scale, deploying it in October 2021 for a cross-sectional analysis of 21 health facilities in Gulu. RESULTS: Grading of Health Center IIIs (n = 16) concluded that 37% had "excellent" or "good" resources available, and 63% of facilities had "poor" or "fair" resources available. Grading of Health Center IVs and above (n = 5) concluded that 60% of facilities had "excellent" or "good" resources, and 40% had "fair" resources available. DISCUSSION: The analysis of health facilities in Gulu demonstrated subpar resources available for cervical cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment. Focused efforts are needed to expand health centers' resources and capability to address rising cervical cancer rates and related health disparities in LMICs. The development process for this project's HFA can be applied to global cervical cancer programming to determine gaps in resources and indicate areas to target improved health equity.

A comprehensive review of clinical and real-world safety data for the four-component serogroup B meningococcal vaccine (4CMenB).

INTRODUCTION: Neisseria meningitidis causes invasive meningococcal disease and, globally, significant morbidity, with serogroup B (MenB) being the most common cause of endemic disease and outbreaks in several regions. Extensive use of the four-component serogroup B meningococcal vaccine (4CMenB; Bexsero, GSK) and its inclusion in immunization programs in several countries have generated substantial safety data during the 9 years since its first authorization in 2013. AREAS COVERED: 4CMenB safety data from clinical trials and post-marketing surveillance studies (2011 to 2022), and spontaneously reported adverse events of medical interest from the GSK global safety database. We discuss these safety findings in relation to the benefit of 4CMenB vaccination and implications for further enhancing vaccine confidence. EXPERT OPINION: 4CMenB has been consistently well tolerated across clinical trials and post-licensure surveillance studies, despite a higher incidence of fever reported in infants than with other pediatric vaccines. Surveillance data have not identified any significant safety issues, consistent with an acceptable safety profile of 4CMenB. These findings highlight the need to balance the risk of relatively common, transient, post-immunization fever with the benefit of affording protection that reduces the risk of uncommon but potentially fatal meningococcal infection.

The four-component serogroup B meningococcal vaccine 4CMenB (Bexsero®, GSK) was licensed in 2013 and has acquired substantial safety evidence through clinical trial and real-world data. Availability of real-world and clinical 4CMenB safety evidence is important to help address vaccination hesitancy. This comprehensive review of safety data, from 9 years of 4CMenB use including recent data from the real world, shows no significant safety issues in a variety of age groups. Data show that transient fever may occur after vaccination. Invasive meningococcal disease, although rare, can be life-threatening. Abundant safety data from this review can help reassure individuals and healthcare providers on the use of 4CMenB.

Health Care Providers Working Cross-Culturally: Pitfalls, Pearls, and Preparation Resources for Culture Shock.

Health care providers engaging in cross-cultural work will likely experience culture shock, a psychological, behavioral, and physiologic response to new cultural environments that can significantly affect travelers. Culture shock has the potential for both negative and positive outcomes. Well-being, health, and professionalism can be negatively influenced during the peak of culture shock, but the experience may also positively promote transformative learning and professional identity formation. Culture shock has been carefully researched for different types of sojourners, such as undergraduate students and business personnel, but minimally for health care providers. This article defines culture shock, describes different health care-related cross-cultural opportunities, identifies factors contributing to culture shock, describes complexities related to measuring culture shock, depicts common cross-cultural challenges encountered by traveling health care providers, and offers tangible guidance to help prepare for culture shock. We conclude with a call for further research and resource development to support the well-being of an increasingly global health care workforce. [Pediatr Ann. 2023;52(9):e335-e343.].

Liver Transplantation for Refractory Congenital Cytomegaloviral Hepatitis.

Congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) is the most common congenital infection. Here, we report on a case of severe, refractory cCMV hepatitis resulting in end-stage liver disease. A male infant born at 37 weeks gestational age presented with petechiae, splenomegaly, and jaundice associated with a direct hyperbilirubinemia, elevated transaminases, and thrombocytopenia. Urine screen was positive for CMV, and he was treated with valganciclovir. He progressed to decompensated cirrhosis with ascites, hypoglycemia, and coagulopathy and was listed for liver transplant at 4 months of age. At 5 months of age, he developed massive hematemesis with hemorrhagic shock and underwent emergent portocaval shunt followed by living donor liver transplant with a left lateral segment graft. Postoperatively, he received CMV immune globulin and intravenous ganciclovir and cleared his viremia by 2 months post-transplant. This case illustrates the diagnostic and management challenges of severe cCMV hepatitis and reports a successful liver transplantation despite active CMV viremia.

Impact of universal varicella vaccination on the use and cost of antibiotics and antivirals for varicella management in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to estimate the impact of universal varicella vaccination (UVV) on the use and costs of antibiotics and antivirals for the management of varicella among children in the United States (US). METHODS: A decision tree model of varicella vaccination, infections and treatment decisions was developed. Results were extrapolated to the 2017 population of 73.5 million US children. Model parameters were populated from published sources. Treatment decisions were derived from a survey of health care professionals' recommendations. The base case modelled current vaccination coverage rates in the US with additional scenarios analyses conducted for 0%, 20%, and 80% coverage and did not account for herd immunity benefits. RESULTS: Our model estimated that 551,434 varicella cases occurred annually among children ≤ 18 years in 2017. Antivirals or antibiotics were prescribed in 23.9% of cases, with unvaccinated children receiving the majority for base case. The annual cost for varicella antiviral and antibiotic treatment was approximately $14 million ($26 per case), with cases with no complications accounting for $12 million. Compared with the no vaccination scenario, the current vaccination rates resulted in savings of $181 million (94.7%) for antivirals and $78 million (95.0%) for antibiotics annually. Scenario analyses showed that higher vaccination coverage (from 0% to 80%) resulted in reduced annual expenditures for antivirals (from $191 million to $41 million), and antibiotics ($82 million to $17 million). CONCLUSIONS: UVV was associated with significant reductions in the use of antibiotics and antivirals and their associated costs in the US. Higher vaccination coverage was associated with lower use and costs of antibiotics and antivirals for varicella management.

Recognition & management of varicella infections and accuracy of antimicrobial recommendations: Case vignettes study in the US.

BACKGROUND: In 1995, the CDC recommended one-dose routine varicella immunization for children <12 years of age, expanding its recommendation to two doses in 2006. Today, with widespread varicella vaccination coverage, an estimated 3.5 million cases of varicella, 9,000 hospitalizations, and 100 deaths are prevented annually in the United States. Since varicella infections are now uncommon, health care providers (HCPs) may not recognize varicella infections and may prescribe inappropriate treatment. METHODS: An online survey of HCPs was conducted to assess recognition and management of varicella infections. Responses to eight varicella vignettes describing patients with varying varicella symptoms were analyzed and descriptive analyses performed. Stratified analysis comparing responses of those licensed before and in/after 1996 was also performed. RESULTS: 153 HCPs (50 nurse practitioners, 103 doctors) completed the survey. Mean age of respondents was 44 years. 62% were female, and 82% were licensed before 1996. Varicella infection was correctly diagnosed 79% of the time. HCPs correctly recognized uncomplicated varicella vignettes 85% of the time versus 61% of the time for complicated varicella vignettes. Antibiotics were recommended 17% of the time and antivirals 18% of the time, of which 25% and 69% (respectively) were not appropriate per guidelines. HCPs licensed before 1996 were better able to recognize varicella compared to those licensed later, but prescribed more antimicrobials medications to treat varicella. CONCLUSIONS: Although most HCPs recognized varicella infection, a sizable proportion could not recognize cases with complications, and some of the varicella cases were inappropriately treated with antibiotics and/or antivirals. Additional HCP training and high vaccination coverage are important strategies to avoid inaccurate diagnoses and minimize unnecessary exposure to antimicrobial/antiviral therapies.

Cause-specific student absenteeism monitoring in K-12 schools for detection of increased influenza activity in the surrounding community-Dane County, Wisconsin, 2014-2020.

BACKGROUND: Schools are primary venues of influenza amplification with secondary spread to communities. We assessed K-12 student absenteeism monitoring as a means for early detection of influenza activity in the community. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between September 2014 and March 2020, we conducted a prospective observational study of all-cause (a-TOT), illness-associated (a-I), and influenza-like illness-associated (a-ILI) absenteeism within the Oregon School District (OSD), Dane County, Wisconsin. Absenteeism was reported through the electronic student information system. Students were visited at home where pharyngeal specimens were collected for influenza RT-PCR testing. Surveillance of medically-attended laboratory-confirmed influenza (MAI) occurred in five primary care clinics in and adjoining the OSD. Poisson general additive log linear regression models of daily counts of absenteeism and MAI were compared using correlation analysis. FINDINGS: Influenza was detected in 723 of 2,378 visited students, and in 1,327 of 4,903 MAI patients. Over six influenza seasons, a-ILI was significantly correlated with MAI in the community (r = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.53-0.63) with a one-day lead time and a-I was significantly correlated with MAI in the community (r = 0.49; 0.44-0.54) with a 10-day lead time, while a-TOT performed poorly (r = 0.27; 0.21-0.33), following MAI by six days. DISCUSSION: Surveillance using cause-specific absenteeism was feasible and performed well over a study period marked by diverse presentations of seasonal influenza. Monitoring a-I and a-ILI can provide early warning of seasonal influenza in time for community mitigation efforts.

Reproductive health at conflict borders: a cross-sectional survey of human rights violations and perinatal outcomes at the Thai-Myanmar border.

BACKGROUND: Human rights violations (HRVs) are common in conflict and displacement contexts. Women are especially vulnerable to HRVs in these contexts, and perinatal health is acutely sensitive to related stressors and health care barriers. However, how HRVs affect immediate and long-term perinatal health in chronic displacement settings has not been closely investigated. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether and how HRVs in these contexts are tied directly to displacement circumstances or other marginalizing factors affecting local migrant and minority populations generally. METHODS: We investigated these questions using novel survey data from 577 women at the northern Thai-Myanmar border, where thousands of people have fled conflict in Shan State, Myanmar, for refuge in a range of precarious settings in Thailand, including unofficial refugee camps, villages, and worksites. We compared HRV exposures by ethnicity, country of birth, legal documentation, and residential setting. We then analyzed perinatal outcomes associated with HRV frequency, timing, and type. RESULTS: Birth in Myanmar, and ethnic minority and precarious legal status more broadly, predicted higher HRV prevalence. HRV frequency significantly predicted unmet antenatal care and lower birth weight, along with HRVs related to labor exploitation and violence or conflict. HRVs timed closer to pregnancies were more adversely associated with perinatal outcomes. Resource/property deprivation was the strongest predictor of pregnancy complications. CONCLUSIONS: Human rights must be urgently attended to, through expanded HRV screenings and responsive care, and policy changes to further protect migrant workers, displaced persons, and others in precarious legal status situations.

Potential impact of COVID-19 pandemic on vaccination coverage in children: A case study of measles-containing vaccine administration in the United States (US).

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home orders have caused an unprecedented decrease in the administration of routinely recommended vaccines. However, the impact of this decrease on overall vaccination coverage in a specific birth cohort is not known. METHODS: We projected measles vaccination coverage for the cohort of children becoming one year old in 2020 in the United States, for different durations of stay-at-home orders, along with varying catch-up vaccination efforts. RESULTS: A 15% sustained catch-up rate outside stay-at-home orders (compared to what would be expected via natality information) may be necessary to achieve projected vaccination coverage similar to previous years. Permanent decreases in vaccine administration could lead to projected vaccination coverage levels below 80%. CONCLUSION: Modeling measles vaccination coverage under a range of scenarios provides useful information about the potential magnitude and impact of under-immunization. Sustained catch-up efforts are needed to assure that measles vaccination coverage remains high.