Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought.

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the fate of Amazon rainforests in response to climate change. Here, carbon (C) flux predictions of five terrestrial biosphere models (Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), Ecosystem Demography model version 2.1 (ED2), Integrated BIosphere Simulator version 2.6.4 (IBIS), Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 (JULES) and Simple Biosphere model version 3 (SiB3)) and a hydrodynamic terrestrial ecosystem model (the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (SPA) model) were evaluated against measurements from two large-scale Amazon drought experiments. Model predictions agreed with the observed C fluxes in the control plots of both experiments, but poorly replicated the responses to the drought treatments. Most notably, with the exception of ED2, the models predicted negligible reductions in aboveground biomass in response to the drought treatments, which was in contrast to an observed c. 20% reduction at both sites. For ED2, the timing of the decline in aboveground biomass was accurate, but the magnitude was too high for one site and too low for the other. Three key findings indicate critical areas for future research and model development. First, the models predicted declines in autotrophic respiration under prolonged drought in contrast to measured increases at one of the sites. Secondly, models lacking a phenological response to drought introduced bias in the sensitivity of canopy productivity and respiration to drought. Thirdly, the phenomenological water-stress functions used by the terrestrial biosphere models to represent the effects of soil moisture on stomatal conductance yielded unrealistic diurnal and seasonal responses to drought.

Performance evaluation of the SITE® model to estimate energy flux in a tropical semi-deciduous forest of the southern Amazon Basin.

The SITE® model was originally developed to study the response of tropical ecosystems to varying environmental conditions. The present study evaluated the applicability of the SITE model to simulation of energy fluxes in a tropical semi-deciduous forest of the southern Amazon Basin. The model was simulated with data representing the wet and dry season, and was calibrated according to each season. The output data of the calibrated model [net radiation (Rn), latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux (H)] were compared with data observed in the field for validation. Considering changes in parameter calibration for a time step simulation of 30 min, the magnitude of variation in temporal flux was satisfactory when compared to observation field data. There was a tendency to underestimate and overestimate LE and H, respectively. Of all the calibration parameters, the soil moisture parameter presented the highest variation over the seasons, thus influencing SITE model performance.

Carbon stocks and dynamics of different land uses on the Cerrado agricultural frontier.

The largest and most dynamic agricultural frontier in Brazil is known as MATOPIBA, an area that covers part of the Cerrado biome. Within this region, Western Bahia stands out as a large producer of soy and cotton. There are no studies that quantify carbon stocks for different land uses and land cover types in Western Bahia, which hinders comprehension of the role of agricultural expansion in carbon dynamics and the development of sustainable agriculture policies. Here, we evaluate how the land use changes in this region have affected the carbon balance in the aboveground biomass (AGB), belowground biomass (BGB), and soil reservoirs. We collected soil samples for areas with different land uses and land cover types to estimate soil carbon stocks (SCS) and combined remote sensing results and modeling techniques to develop a historical reconstruction of spatial patterns of SCS, AGB, and BGB during the period 1990-2018. The replacement of areas from the forest formations class with pasture and rainfed agriculture reduced the 100 cm depth SCS (SCS100) by 37.3% (p = 0.031) and 30.3% (p = 0.053), respectively. By contrast, the conversion of pasture and rainfed agriculture to irrigated agriculture increased SCS100 by 34% (p = 0.034) and 26.5% (p = 0.022), respectively. Spatial changes in historical carbon stocks are strongly associated with land use changes that occurred between 1990 and 2018. We estimated a non-significant loss of 61.9 Tg-C (p = 0.726) from the total carbon stocks (calculated as the sum of AGB, BGB, and SCS) of which 80% of the losses came from soil stocks, 11% from BGB, and 8% from AGB. These findings reveal the need to monitor carbon stocks in sandy soils to reduce the uncertainties of estimates and support the development of effective sustainable agriculture policies. The best alternatives for reducing carbon losses in the Cerrado are to maintain natural forest cover and to recover soils through sustainable soil management, especially in pasturelands where soil carbon stocks are lowest.

Nitrogen-Use Efficiency, Nitrous Oxide Emissions, and Cereal Production in Brazil: Current Trends and Forecasts.

The agriculture sector has historically been a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere. Although the use of synthetic fertilizers is one of the most common widespread agricultural practices, over-fertilization can lead to negative economic and environmental consequences, such as high production costs, depletion of energy resources, and increased GHG emissions. Here, we provide an analysis to understand the evolution of cereal production and consumption of nitrogen (N) fertilizers in Brazil and to correlate N use efficiency (NUE) with economic and environmental losses as N2O emissions. Our results show that the increased consumption of N fertilizers is associated with a large decrease in NUE in recent years. The CO2 eq. of N2O emissions originating from N fertilization for cereal production were approximately 12 times higher in 2011 than in 1970, indicating that the inefficient use of N fertilizers is directly related to environmental losses. The projected N fertilizer forecasts are 2.09 and 2.37 million ton for 2015 and 2023, respectively. An increase of 0.02% per year in the projected NUE was predicted for the same time period. However, decreases in the projected CO2 eq. emissions for future years were not predicted. In a hypothetical scenario, a 2.39% increase in cereal NUE would lead to $ 21 million savings in N fertilizer costs. Thus, increases in NUE rates would lead not only to agronomic and environmental benefits but also to economic improvement.

Deforestation and climate feedbacks threaten the ecological integrity of south-southeastern Amazonia.

A mosaic of protected areas, including indigenous lands, sustainable-use production forests and reserves and strictly protected forests is the cornerstone of conservation in the Amazon, with almost 50 per cent of the region now protected. However, recent research indicates that isolation from direct deforestation or degradation may not be sufficient to maintain the ecological integrity of Amazon forests over the next several decades. Large-scale changes in fire and drought regimes occurring as a result of deforestation and greenhouse gas increases may result in forest degradation, regardless of protected status. How severe or widespread these feedbacks will be is uncertain, but the arc of deforestation in south-southeastern Amazonia appears to be particularly vulnerable owing to high current deforestation rates and ecological sensitivity to climate change. Maintaining forest ecosystem integrity may require significant strengthening of forest conservation on private property, which can in part be accomplished by leveraging existing policy mechanisms.

Mecanismos de controle da variação sazonal da transpiração de uma floresta tropical no nordeste da amazônia / Control mechanisms of the seasonal variation of transpiration in a northeast amazonian tropical rainforest

No presente trabalho foram estudadas a variação sazonal da transpiração, de uma floresta tropical, e sua dependência com fatores bióticos e abióticos. Utilizaram-se dados do projeto CARBOPARA, parte integrante do Experimento de Grande Escala da Biosfera-Atmosfera na Amazônia (LBA), coletados na reserva florestal de Caxiuanã, região nordeste da Amazônia. A evapotranspiração total num intervalo de 39 dias para o período chuvoso foi 108,2 mm, com valor médio de 2,9 mm dia-1, enquanto, durante o período menos chuvoso, a evapotranspiração total num intervalo de 29 dias foi 128,8 mm, com média de 4,3 mm dia-1 para o período. Os valores máximos da condutividade de superfície (Cs), nos dois períodos, ocorreram às 08:00 hl, sendo estes valores de 0,060 m s-1 e 0,045 m s-1 para o período chuvoso e menos chuvoso, respectivamente. A condutância aerodinâmica média (Ca) foi 0,164 m s-1 e 0,210 m s-1, para os períodos chuvoso e menos chuvoso, respectivamente. Os valores máximos da Ca observados para os períodos chuvoso e menos chuvoso foram, respectivamente, 0,220 e 0,375 m s-1. Verificou-se que Cs guarda uma relação exponencial inversa com o déficit de vapor de água atmosférico, para diferentes intervalos de irradiância solar global. A análise horária do fator de desacoplamento sugere que a evapotranspiração, durante a manhã, tem um maior controle realizado pela disponibilidade de energia, quando comparado ao período menos chuvoso. Durante a tarde verifica-se que o dossel da floresta progressivamente tende a estar mais acoplado à atmosfera, para ambos os períodos estudados, demonstrando maior controle superficial na transpiração.

Variação espacial e temporal da precipitação no Estado do Pará / Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation in the State of Pará

Estudos sobre a climatologia das precipitações no Estado do Pará são essenciais para o planejamento das atividades agrícolas. A variação da precipitação anual e sazonal no Estado do Pará foi analisada com base em séries históricas de 23 anos (1976-1998) de dados diários de chuva. A análise foi realizada para 31 localidades do Estado do Pará, sendo os resultados representados em mapas com a utilização de técnicas de sistemas de informações geográficas (SIG). A variabilidade da precipitação anual e sazonal foi caracterizada com base no coeficiente de variação e no índice de variabilidade interanual relativo. A variação desses coeficientes para a precipitação anual no Estado do Pará foi de 15 a 30 por cento. As características mensais da estação chuvosa, em termos de início, fim e duração, foram determinadas utilizando-se o critério proposto por KASSAM (1979). A variação entre as datas de plantio precoces e tardias corresponderam aos decêndios identificados pelos dias julianos 309319 e 353363, respectivamente.