Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale, continental analysis of forest change.

The scale of investigation for disturbance-influenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact locations are unknown. This research quantified disturbance proportion and pattern (as contagion) at multiple scales across North America. This pattern of scale-associated variability can guide selection of study and management extents, for example, to minimize variance (measured as standard deviation) between any landscapes within an ecoregion. We identified the proportion and pattern of forest disturbance (30 m grain size) across multiple landscape extents up to 180 km2. We explored the variance in proportion of disturbed area and the pattern of that disturbance between landscapes (within an ecoregion) as a function of the landscape extent. In many ecoregions, variance between landscapes within an ecoregion was minimal at broad landscape extents (low standard deviation). Gap-dominated regions showed the least variance, while fire-dominated showed the largest. Intensively managed ecoregions displayed unique patterns. A majority of the ecoregions showed low variance between landscapes at some scale, indicating an appropriate extent for incorporating natural regimes and unknown future disturbances was identified. The quantification of the scales of disturbance at the ecoregion level provides guidance for individuals interested in anticipating future disturbances which will occur in unknown spatial locations. Information on the extents required to incorporate disturbance patterns into planning is crucial for that process.

Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.

Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions.

Forested watersheds provide the highest water quality among all land cover types, but the benefit of this ecosystem service depends on landscape context.

Conversion of natural land cover can degrade water quality in water supply watersheds and increase treatment costs for Public Water Systems (PWSs), but there are few studies that have fully evaluated land cover and water quality relationships in mixed use watersheds across broad hydroclimatic settings. We related upstream land cover (forest, other natural land covers, development, and agriculture) to observed and modeled water quality across the southeastern US and specifically at 1746 PWS drinking water intake facilities. While there was considerable complexity and variability in the relationship between land cover and water quality, results suggest that Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP) and Suspended Sediment (SS) concentrations decrease significantly with increasing forest cover, and increase with increasing developed or agricultural cover. Catchments with dominant (>90 %) agricultural land cover had the greatest export rates for TN, TP, and SS based on SPARROW model estimates, followed by developed-dominant, then forest- and other-natural-dominant catchments. Variability in modeled TN, TP, and SS export rates by land cover type was driven by variability in natural background sources and catchment characteristics that affected water quality even in forest-dominated catchments. Both intake setting (i.e., run-of-river or reservoir) and upstream land cover were important determinants of water quality at PWS intakes. Of all PWS intakes, 15 % had high raw water quality, and 85 % of those were on reservoirs. Of the run-of-river intakes with high raw water quality, 75 % had at least 50 % forest land cover upstream. In addition, PWS intakes obtaining surface water supply from smaller upstream catchments may experience the largest losses of natural land cover based on projections of land cover in 2070. These results illustrate the complexity and variability in the relationship between land cover and water quality at broad scales, but also suggest that forest conservation can enhance the resilience of drinking water supplies.

The geodiv r package: Tools for calculating gradient surface metrics.

The geodiv r package calculates gradient surface metrics from imagery and other gridded datasets to provide continuous measures of landscape heterogeneity for landscape pattern analysis. geodiv is the first open-source, command line toolbox for calculating many gradient surface metrics and easily integrates parallel computing for applications with large images or rasters (e.g. remotely sensed data). All functions may be applied either globally to derive a single metric for an entire image or locally to create a texture image over moving windows of a user-defined extent.We present a comprehensive description of the functions available through geodiv. A supplemental vignette provides an example application of geodiv to the fields of landscape ecology and biogeography. geodiv allows users to easily retrieve estimates of spatial heterogeneity for a variety of purposes, enhancing our understanding of how environmental structure influences ecosystem processes. The package works with any continuous imagery and may be widely applied in many fields where estimates of surface complexity are useful.

Potential geographic distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition from intensive livestock production in North Carolina, USA.

To examine the consequences of increased spatial aggregation of livestock production facilities, we estimated the annual production of nitrogen in livestock waste in North Carolina, USA, and analyzed the potential distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition from confined animal feeding operations ("CAFO") lagoons. North Carolina is a national center for industrial livestock production. Livestock is increasingly being raised in CAFOs, where waste is frequently held, essentially untreated, in open-air lagoons. Reduced nitrogen in lagoons is volatilized as ammonia (NH(3)), transported atmospherically, and deposited to other ecosystems. The Albemarle-Pamlico Sound, NC, is representative of nitrogen-sensitive coastal waters, and is a major component of the second largest estuarine complex in the U.S. We used GIS to model the area of water in the Sound within deposition range of CAFOs. We also evaluated the number of lagoons within deposition range of each 1 km(2) grid cell of the state. We considered multiple scenarios of atmospheric transport by varying distance and directionality. Modeled nitrogen deposition rates were particularly elevated for the Coastal Plain. This pattern matches empirical data, suggesting that observed regional patterns of reduced nitrogen deposition can be largely explained by two factors: limited atmospheric transport distance, and spatial aggregation of CAFOs. Under our medium-distance scenario, a small portion (roughly 22%) of livestock production facilities contributes disproportionately to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Albemarle-Pamlico Sound. Furthermore, we estimated that between 14-37% of the state receives 50% of the state's atmospheric nitrogen deposition from CAFO lagoons. The estimated total emission from livestock is 134,000 t NH(3) yr(-1), 73% of which originates from the Coastal Plain. Stronger waste management and emission standards for CAFOs, particularly those on the Coastal Plain nearest to sensitive water bodies, may help mitigate negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems.

An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068), while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each). We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV) for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.