Interventions to improve oral health and related health behaviours of substance use, smoking, and diet in people with severe and multiple disadvantage: a systematic review of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Homelessness overlapping with substance use and offending is described as severe and multiple disadvantage (SMD). People experiencing SMD have poor oral health along with high levels of related behaviours such as substance use, smoking, and poor diet. Existing evidence largely describes the prevalence of oral health problems, substance use, and smoking in SMD groups. Little is known about interventions that can address these conditions in SMD groups. We aimed to review the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions on oral health and related health behaviours in adults experiencing SMD. METHODS: For this systematic review, we searched bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, EBSCO, Scopus) and grey literature for papers published from inception to February 2023. Two researchers independently reviewed the searches. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), comparative studies and economic evaluations were included. Risk of bias was assessed. Population included adults experiencing SMD (including homelessness and substance use or repeat offending). Outcomes included oral health, and related behaviours (substance use, smoking, poor diet). Results were narratively synthesised. This review was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020202416. FINDINGS: The review included 38 studies (published between 1991 and 2023), with 34 reporting effectiveness. These studies comprised of 23 RCTs and 11 quasi-experimental studies conducted in the USA (25 studies), Canada (seven studies), France (one study), and Spain (one study). The interventions involving multiple components, such as housing services with substance use and mental health support, effectively reduced substance use in SMD groups; these were mostly individual-level interventions. However, these studies had short follow-up periods and high attrition rates. Only one study addressed oral health outcomes, none focused on diet, and three RCTs covered smoking, with one intervention showing smoking abstinence at 4 weeks. Some limited evidence suggested cost-effectiveness of substance use interventions. INTERPRETATION: This review found that integrating services such as housing with other health-care services together could be effective in improving health behaviours, especially substance use among SMD groups. More evidence is needed specifically on oral health, smoking, and diet-related interventions. The generalisability of findings of this review is limited to high-income countries and shorter-term outcomes. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Policy Research Programme.

What works to support carers of older people and older carers? an international evidence map of interventions and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Unpaid carers of older people, and older unpaid carers, experience a range of adverse outcomes. Supporting carers should therefore be a public health priority. Our understanding of what works to support carers could be enhanced if future evaluations prioritise under-researched interventions and outcomes. To support this, we aimed to: map evidence about interventions to support carers, and the outcomes evaluated; and identify key gaps in current evidence. METHODS: Evidence gap map review methods were used. Searches were carried out in three bibliographic databases for quantitative evaluations of carer interventions published in OECD high-income countries between 2013 and 2023. Interventions were eligible if they supported older carers (50 + years) of any aged recipient, or any aged carers of older people (50 + years). FINDINGS: 205 studies reported across 208 publications were included in the evidence map. The majority evaluated the impact of therapeutic and educational interventions on carer burden and carers' mental health. Some studies reported evidence about physical exercise interventions and befriending and peer support for carers, but these considered a limited range of outcomes. Few studies evaluated interventions that focused on delivering financial information and advice, pain management, and physical skills training for carers. Evaluations rarely considered the impact of interventions on carers' physical health, quality of life, and social and financial wellbeing. Very few studies considered whether interventions delivered equitable outcomes. CONCLUSION: Evidence on what works best to support carers is extensive but limited in scope. A disproportionate focus on mental health and burden outcomes neglects other important areas where carers may need support. Given the impact of caring on carers' physical health, financial and social wellbeing, future research could evaluate interventions that aim to support these outcomes. Appraisal of whether interventions deliver equitable outcomes across diverse carer populations is critical.

Interventions for cold homes: a rapid review of the health impacts.

BACKGROUND: Cold homes are associated with an increased risk of adverse health outcomes for older people. To mitigate this risk, homes need to be heated to an appropriate temperature. This review aims to identify interventions designed to improve heating and temperatures within homes and summarize its impact on health, health service utilization and cost effectiveness. METHODS: A rapid review was conducted. Studies assessing the effects of structural, financial, or behavioural interventions designed to improve home temperatures of residents aged 18+ years were eligible. Searches were carried out in four databases. A search for grey literature, and backward and forward citation searching were performed. Data were summarized in a narrative synthesis and mapped using EPPI-Reviewer and EPPI-Mapper software. RESULTS: Eighteen studies reported across 19 publications were included. Structural interventions were associated with better mental health and quality of life, a reduction in health service utilization, and improvements in satisfaction with internal home temperature, social interactions and financial difficulties. The impact on physical health outcomes varied by age, gender and long-term conditions. Evidence about the impact of behavioural interventions was inconsistent. CONCLUSION: Structural improvements to increase home temperatures may offer the potential to improve some aspects of health. However, the impact on physical health, including which groups are most likely to benefit, is unclear. Key gaps include the lack of evidence about the impact of financial interventions, and the impact of all types of interventions, on quality of life, mortality and costs.

Residual Disease After Primary Surgical Treatment for Advanced Epithelial Ovarian Cancer, Part 2: Network Meta-analysis Incorporating Expert Elicitation to Adjust for Publication Bias.

BACKGROUND: Previous work has identified a strong association between the achievements of macroscopic cytoreduction and improved overall survival (OS) after primary surgical treatment of advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. Despite the use of contemporary methodology, resulting in the most comprehensive currently available evidence to date in this area, opponents remain skeptical. AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY: We aimed to conduct sensitivity analyses to adjust for potential publication bias, to confirm or refute existing conclusions and recommendations, leveraging elicitation to incorporate expert opinion. We recommend our approach as an exemplar that should be adopted in other areas of research. DATA SOURCES: We conducted random-effects network meta-analyses in frequentist and Bayesian (using Markov Chain Montel Carlo simulation) frameworks comparing OS across residual disease thresholds in women with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer after primary cytoreductive surgery. Elicitation methods among experts in gynecology were used to derive priors for an extension to a previously reported Copas selection model and a novel approach using effect estimates calculated from the elicitation exercise, to attempt to adjust for publication bias and increase confidence in the certainty of the evidence. THERAPEUTIC ADVANCES: Analyses using data from 25 studies (n = 20,927 women) all showed the prognostic importance of complete cytoreduction (0 cm) in both frameworks. Experts accepted publication bias was likely, but after adjustment for their opinions, published results overpowered the informative priors incorporated into the Bayesian sensitivity analyses. Effect estimates were attenuated but conclusions were robust in all analyses. CONCLUSIONS: There remains a strong association between the achievement of complete cytoreduction and improved OS even after adjustment for publication bias using strong informative priors formed from an expert elicitation exercise. The concepts of the elicitation survey should be strongly considered for utilization in other meta-analyses.

Residual Disease Threshold After Primary Surgical Treatment for Advanced Epithelial Ovarian Cancer, Part 1: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: We present a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) that is the precursor underpinning the Bayesian analyses that adjust for publication bias, presented in the same edition in AJT. The review assesses optimal cytoreduction for women undergoing primary advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) surgery. AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY: To assess the impact of residual disease (RD) after primary debulking surgery in women with advanced EOC. This review explores the impact of leaving varying levels of primary debulking surgery. DATA SOURCES: We conducted a systematic review and random-effects NMA for overall survival (OS) to incorporate direct and indirect estimates of RD thresholds, including concurrent comparative, retrospective studies of ≥100 adult women (18+ years) with surgically staged advanced EOC (FIGO stage III/IV) who had confirmed histological diagnoses of ovarian cancer. Pairwise meta-analyses of all directly compared RD thresholds was previously performed before conducting this NMA, and the statistical heterogeneity of studies within each comparison was evaluated using recommended methods. THERAPEUTIC ADVANCES: Twenty-five studies (n = 20,927) were included. Analyses demonstrated the prognostic importance of complete cytoreduction to no macroscopic residual disease (NMRD), with a hazard ratio for OS of 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 1.8-2.2) for <1 cm RD threshold versus NMRD. NMRD was associated with prolonged survival across all RD thresholds. Leaving NMRD was predicted to provide longest survival (probability of being best = 99%). The results were robust to sensitivity analysis including only those studies that adjusted for extent of disease at primary surgery (hazard ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval, 1.9-2.6). The overall certainty of evidence was moderate and statistical adjustment of effect estimates in included studies minimized bias. CONCLUSIONS: The results confirm a strong association between complete cytoreduction to NMRD and improved OS. The NMA approach forms part of the methods guidance underpinning policy making in many jurisdictions. Our analyses present an extension to the previous work in this area.

What matters to people with multiple long-term conditions and their carers?

BACKGROUND: The number of people living with multiple long-term conditions is increasing worldwide. This presents challenges for health and care systems, which must adapt to meet the needs of this population. This study drew on existing data to understand what matters to people living with multiple long-term conditions and identify priorities for future research. METHODS: Two studies were conducted. (1) A secondary thematic analysis of interview, survey and workshop data collected from the 2017 James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership for Older People with Multiple Conditions, and patient and public involvement workshops; (2) a review of ongoing research and published research priorities, relating to older people (80+) living with multiple long-term conditions. FINDINGS: Older people with multiple long-term conditions identified a number of key concerns: access to care, support for both the patient and their carer, physical and mental health and well-being and identifying opportunities for early prevention. The review identified no published research priorities or ongoing research focusing specifically on populations aged over 80 years with multiple long-term conditions. CONCLUSION: Older people living with multiple long-term conditions experience care that is inadequate for their needs. A holistic approach to care that extends beyond treating single conditions will ensure wide-ranging needs are met. As multimorbidity rises worldwide, this is a critical message for practitioners across health and care settings. We also recommend key areas that should be given greater focus in future research and policy to inform effective and meaningful forms of support for people living with multiple long-term conditions.

Closing the loop between horizon scanning and health technology assessment - an overview of topics submitted for appraisal in England.

OBJECTIVES: Horizon scanning for health technology appraisal (HTA) in England involves topic notification to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) via technology briefings. This activity is undertaken by the Innovation Observatory with submission timelines designed to ensure that HTA decisions align with regulatory approval time. In this paper, we aimed to track and assess the progression and current status of the topics notified for HTA and provide a descriptive analysis of these topics. METHODS: Technology briefings were mapped from submission to NICE technology appraisal/highly specialized technologies recommendations from April 2017 until October 2021. This was done using a combination of searches on Google and NICE website, searching a downloadable spreadsheet containing NICE topic selection decisions, and querying NICE Topic Selection team. Analysis was undertaken regarding type of indications and interventions of submitted topics and published guidance. RESULTS: Six-hundred and ninety-three topics entered the NICE scoping process, of which 94 percent were prioritized. As of November 2021, approximately 39 percent of prioritized topics were in scoping/in progress, 31 percent were proposed/completed, 20 percent were suspended/terminated, and 4 percent were referred back to Innovation Observatory (IO) for further monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: Our work demonstrates that horizon scanning for HTA is a complex and time-intensive process. Timelines and progress through HTA is challenging due to the growing number of innovative medicines, significant uncertainties, and limited transparency in clinical development and regulatory pathways. A better understanding of clinical trials and regulatory requirements may help eliminate some of this uncertainty and improve timely HTA.

Combination therapies for COVID-19: An overview of the clinical trials landscape.

The COVID-19 pandemic has driven an unprecedented level of global activity in drug discovery and clinical development for effective therapeutics targeting the coronavirus disease. There are currently 744 therapeutics being tested in 2879 clinical trials globally. Almost 90% of these clinical trials are focused on monotherapies. Combination therapies are the mainstay of antiviral therapeutics to increase the potency of the individual compounds and to combat the rapid evolution of resistance, although combination therapies have inherently complex clinical and regulatory development challenges. Increased understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 lifecycle and COVID-19 pathology provides a scientific rationale for evaluating the effectiveness of different combinations. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current clinical trial landscape for combination therapeutics targeting COVID-19 through weekly scanning of national and international clinical trial registries. Our analysis delves specifically into dual combination therapies in what can be defined as "pivotal clinical trials" (active, randomised, controlled and at least phase II), with a focus on new and repurposed therapeutic candidates that have shown positive signals and/or been granted authorisation for emergency use based on positive efficacy and safety data.

Factors associated with unmet need for support to maintain independence in later life: a systematic review of quantitative and qualitative evidence.

BACKGROUND: populations are considered to have an 'unmet need' when they could benefit from, but do not get, the necessary support. Policy efforts to achieve equitable access to long-term care require an understanding of patterns of unmet need. A systematic review was conducted to identify factors associated with unmet need for support to maintain independence in later life. METHODS: seven bibliographic databases and four non-bibliographic evidence sources were searched. Quantitative observational studies and qualitative systematic reviews were included if they reported factors associated with unmet need for support to maintain independence in populations aged 50+, in high-income countries. No limits to publication date were imposed. Studies were quality assessed and a narrative synthesis used, supported by forest plots to visualise data. FINDINGS: forty-three quantitative studies and 10 qualitative systematic reviews were included. Evidence across multiple studies suggests that being male, younger age, living alone, having lower levels of income, poor self-rated health, more functional limitations and greater severity of depression were linked to unmet need. Other factors that were reported in single studies were also identified. In the qualitative reviews, care eligibility criteria, the quality, adequacy and absence of care, and cultural and language barriers were implicated in unmet need. CONCLUSIONS: this review identifies which groups of older people may be most at risk of not accessing the support they need to maintain independence. Ongoing monitoring of unmet need is critical to support policy efforts to achieve equal ageing and equitable access to care.

Impact of residual disease as a prognostic factor for survival in women with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer after primary surgery.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer is the seventh most common cancer among women and a leading cause of death from gynaecological malignancies. Epithelial ovarian cancer is the most common type, accounting for around 90% of all ovarian cancers. This specific type of ovarian cancer starts in the surface layer covering the ovary or lining of the fallopian tube. Surgery is performed either before chemotherapy (upfront or primary debulking surgery (PDS)) or in the middle of a course of treatment with chemotherapy (neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) and interval debulking surgery (IDS)), with the aim of removing all visible tumour and achieving no macroscopic residual disease (NMRD). The aim of this review is to investigate the prognostic impact of size of residual disease nodules (RD) in women who received upfront or interval cytoreductive surgery for advanced (stage III and IV) epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). OBJECTIVES: To assess the prognostic impact of residual disease after primary surgery on survival outcomes for advanced (stage III and IV) epithelial ovarian cancer. In separate analyses, primary surgery included both upfront primary debulking surgery (PDS) followed by adjuvant chemotherapy and neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval debulking surgery (IDS). Each residual disease threshold is considered as a separate prognostic factor. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL (2021, Issue 8), MEDLINE via Ovid (to 30 August 2021) and Embase via Ovid (to 30 August 2021). SELECTION CRITERIA: We included survival data from studies of at least 100 women with advanced EOC after primary surgery. Residual disease was assessed as a prognostic factor in multivariate prognostic models. We excluded studies that reported fewer than 100 women, women with concurrent malignancies or studies that only reported unadjusted results. Women were included into two distinct groups: those who received PDS followed by platinum-based chemotherapy and those who received IDS, analysed separately. We included studies that reported all RD thresholds after surgery, but the main thresholds of interest were microscopic RD (labelled NMRD), RD 0.1 cm to 1 cm (small-volume residual disease (SVRD)) and RD > 1 cm (large-volume residual disease (LVRD)). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently abstracted data and assessed risk of bias. Where possible, we synthesised the data in meta-analysis. To assess the adequacy of adjustment factors used in multivariate Cox models, we used the 'adjustment for other prognostic factors' and 'statistical analysis and reporting' domains of the quality in prognosis studies (QUIPS) tool. We also made judgements about the certainty of the evidence for each outcome in the main comparisons, using GRADE. We examined differences between FIGO stages III and IV for different thresholds of RD after primary surgery. We considered factors such as age, grade, length of follow-up, type and experience of surgeon, and type of surgery in the interpretation of any heterogeneity. We also performed sensitivity analyses that distinguished between studies that included NMRD in RD categories of < 1 cm and those that did not. This was applicable to comparisons involving RD < 1 cm with the exception of RD < 1 cm versus NMRD. We evaluated women undergoing PDS and IDS in separate analyses. MAIN RESULTS: We found 46 studies reporting multivariate prognostic analyses, including RD as a prognostic factor, which met our inclusion criteria: 22,376 women who underwent PDS and 3697 who underwent IDS, all with varying levels of RD. While we identified a range of different RD thresholds, we mainly report on comparisons that are the focus of a key area of clinical uncertainty (involving NMRD, SVRD and LVRD). The comparison involving any visible disease (RD > 0 cm) and NMRD was also important. SVRD versus NMRD in a PDS setting In PDS studies, most showed an increased risk of death in all RD groups when those with macroscopic RD (MRD) were compared to NMRD. Women who had SVRD after PDS had more than twice the risk of death compared to women with NMRD (hazard ratio (HR) 2.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80 to 2.29; I2 = 50%; 17 studies; 9404 participants; moderate-certainty). The analysis of progression-free survival found that women who had SVRD after PDS had nearly twice the risk of death compared to women with NMRD (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.63 to 2.16; I2 = 63%; 10 studies; 6596 participants; moderate-certainty). LVRD versus SVRD in a PDS setting When we compared LVRD versus SVRD following surgery, the estimates were attenuated compared to NMRD comparisons. All analyses showed an overall survival benefit in women who had RD < 1 cm after surgery (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.32; I2 = 0%; 5 studies; 6000 participants; moderate-certainty). The results were robust to analyses of progression-free survival. SVRD and LVRD versus NMRD in an IDS setting The one study that defined the categories as NMRD, SVRD and LVRD showed that women who had SVRD and LVRD after IDS had more than twice the risk of death compared to women who had NMRD (HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.66; 310 participants; I2 = 56%, and HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.49 to 3.34; 343 participants; I2 = 35%; very low-certainty, for SVRD versus NMRD and LVRD versus NMRD, respectively). LVRD versus SVRD + NMRD in an IDS setting Meta-analysis found that women who had LVRD had a greater risk of death and disease progression compared to women who had either SVRD or NMRD (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.11; 6 studies; 1572 participants; I2 = 58% for overall survival and HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.52; 1145 participants; I2 = 60% for progression-free survival; very low-certainty). However, this result is biased as in all but one study it was not possible to distinguish NMRD within the < 1 cm thresholds. Only one study separated NMRD from SVRD; all others included NMRD in the SVRD group, which may create bias when comparing with LVRD, making interpretation challenging. MRD versus NMRD in an IDS setting Women who had any amount of MRD after IDS had more than twice the risk of death compared to women with NMRD (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.35 to 3.29, I2 = 81%; 906 participants; very low-certainty). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In a PDS setting, there is moderate-certainty evidence that the amount of RD after primary surgery is a prognostic factor for overall and progression-free survival in women with advanced ovarian cancer. We separated our analysis into three distinct categories for the survival outcome including NMRD, SVRD and LVRD. After IDS, there may be only two categories required, although this is based on very low-certainty evidence, as all but one study included NMRD in the SVRD category. The one study that separated NMRD from SVRD showed no improved survival outcome in the SVRD category, compared to LVRD. Further low-certainty evidence also supported restricting to two categories, where women who had any amount of MRD after IDS had a significantly greater risk of death compared to women with NMRD. Therefore, the evidence presented in this review cannot conclude that using three categories applies in an IDS setting (very low-certainty evidence), as was supported for PDS (which has convincing moderate-certainty evidence).

Identifying older adults with frailty approaching end-of-life: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: People with frailty may have specific needs for end-of-life care, but there is no consensus on how to identify these people in a timely way, or whether they will benefit from intervention. AIM: To synthesise evidence on identification of older people with frailty approaching end-of-life, and whether associated intervention improves outcomes. DESIGN: Systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42020462624). DATA SOURCES: Six databases were searched, with no date restrictions, for articles reporting prognostic or intervention studies. Key inclusion criteria were adults aged 65 and over, identified as frail via an established measure. End-of-life was defined as the final 12 months. Key exclusion criteria were proxy definitions of frailty, or studies involving people with cancer, even if also frail. RESULTS: Three articles met the inclusion criteria. Strongest evidence came from one study in English primary care, which showed distinct trajectories in electronic Frailty Index scores in the last 12 months of life, associated with increased risk of death. We found no studies evaluating established clinical tools (e.g. Gold Standards Framework) with existing frail populations. We found no intervention studies; the literature on advance care planning with people with frailty has relied on proxy definitions of frailty. CONCLUSION: Clear implications for policy and practice are hindered by the lack of studies using an established approach to assessing frailty. Future end-of-life research needs to use explicit approaches to the measurement and reporting of frailty, and address the evidence gap on interventions. A focus on models of care that incorporate a palliative approach is essential.

What matters to people with multiple long-term conditions and their carers?

BACKGROUND: The number of people living with multiple long-term conditions is increasing worldwide. This presents challenges for health and care systems, which must adapt to meet the needs of this population. This study drew on existing data to understand what matters to people living with multiple long-term conditions and identify priorities for future research. METHODS: Two studies were conducted. (1) A secondary thematic analysis of interview, survey and workshop data collected from the 2017 James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership for Older People with Multiple Conditions, and patient and public involvement workshops; (2) a review of ongoing research and published research priorities, relating to older people (80+) living with multiple long-term conditions. FINDINGS: Older people with multiple long-term conditions identified a number of key concerns: access to care, support for both the patient and their carer, physical and mental health and well-being and identifying opportunities for early prevention. The review identified no published research priorities or ongoing research focusing specifically on populations aged over 80 years with multiple long-term conditions. CONCLUSION: Older people living with multiple long-term conditions experience care that is inadequate for their needs. A holistic approach to care that extends beyond treating single conditions will ensure wide-ranging needs are met. As multimorbidity rises worldwide, this is a critical message for practitioners across health and care settings. We also recommend key areas that should be given greater focus in future research and policy to inform effective and meaningful forms of support for people living with multiple long-term conditions.

Effects of Digital Technologies on Older People's Access to Health and Social Care: Umbrella Review.

BACKGROUND: The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic prompted the rapid implementation of new and existing digital technologies to facilitate access to health and care services during physical distancing. Older people may be disadvantaged in that regard if they are unable to use or have access to smartphones, tablets, computers, or other technologies. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we synthesized evidence on the impact of digital technologies on older adults' access to health and social services. METHODS: We conducted an umbrella review of systematic reviews published from January 2000 to October 2019 using comprehensive searches of 6 databases. We looked for reviews in a population of adults aged ≥65 years in any setting, reporting outcomes related to the impact of technologies on access to health and social care services. RESULTS: A total of 7 systematic reviews met the inclusion criteria, providing data from 77 randomized controlled trials and 50 observational studies. All of them synthesized findings from low-quality primary studies, 2 of which used robust review methods. Most of the reviews focused on digital technologies to facilitate remote delivery of care, including consultations and therapy. No studies examined technologies used for first contact access to care, such as online appointment scheduling. Overall, we found no reviews of technology to facilitate first contact access to health and social care such as online appointment booking systems for older populations. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of digital technologies on equitable access to services for older people is unclear. Research is urgently needed in order to understand the positive and negative consequences of digital technologies on health care access and to identify the groups most vulnerable to exclusion.

Secondary transfer of emergency stroke patients eligible for mechanical thrombectomy by air in rural England: economic evaluation and considerations.

BACKGROUND: Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is a time-sensitive emergency procedure for patients who had ischaemic stroke leading to improved health outcomes. Health systems need to ensure that MT is delivered to as many patients as quickly as possible. Using decision modelling, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of secondary transfer by helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) compared with ground emergency medical services (GEMS) of rural patients eligible for MT in England. METHODS: The model consisted of (1) a short-run decision tree with two branches, representing secondary transfer transportation strategies and (2) a long-run Markov model for a theoretical population of rural patients with a confirmed ischaemic stroke. Strategies were compared by lifetime costs: quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost per QALY gained and net monetary benefit. Sensitivity and scenario analyses explored uncertainty around parameter values. RESULTS: We used the base case of early-presenting (<6 hours to arterial puncture) patient aged 75 years who had stroke to compare HEMS and GEMS. This produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £28 027 when a 60 min reduction in travel time was assumed. Scenario analyses showed the importance of the reduction in travel time and futile transfers in lowering ICERs. For late presenting (>6 hours to arterial puncture), ground transportation is the dominant strategy. CONCLUSION: Our model indicates that using HEMS to transfer patients who had stroke eligible for MT from remote hospitals in England may be cost-effective when: travel time is reduced by at least 60 min compared with GEMS, and a £30 000/QALY threshold is used for decision-making. However, several other logistic considerations may impact on the use of air transportation.

Metabolic risk factors and incident advanced liver disease in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD): A systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. Many individuals have risk factors associated with NAFLD, but the majority do not develop advanced liver disease: cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, or hepatocellular carcinoma. Identifying people at high risk of experiencing these complications is important in order to prevent disease progression. This review synthesises the evidence on metabolic risk factors and their potential to predict liver disease outcomes in the general population at risk of NAFLD or with diagnosed NAFLD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies. Databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov) were searched up to 9 January 2020. Studies were included that reported severe liver disease outcomes (defined as liver cirrhosis, complications of cirrhosis, or liver-related death) or advanced fibrosis/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in adult individuals with metabolic risk factors, compared with individuals with no metabolic risk factors. Cohorts selected on the basis of a clinically indicated liver biopsy were excluded to better reflect general population risk. Risk of bias was assessed using the QUIPS tool. The results of similar studies were pooled, and overall estimates of hazard ratio (HR) were obtained using random-effects meta-analyses. Of 7,300 unique citations, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria and were of sufficient quality, with 18 studies contributing data suitable for pooling in 2 random-effects meta-analyses. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) was associated with an increased risk of incident severe liver disease events (adjusted HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.83-2.76, p < 0.001, I2 99%). T2DM data were from 12 studies, with 22.8 million individuals followed up for a median of 10 years (IQR 6.4 to 16.9) experiencing 72,792 liver events. Fourteen studies were included in the meta-analysis of obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m2) as a prognostic factor, providing data on 19.3 million individuals followed up for a median of 13.8 years (IQR 9.0 to 19.8) experiencing 49,541 liver events. Obesity was associated with a modest increase in risk of incident severe liver disease outcomes (adjusted HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28, p < 0.001, I2 87%). There was also evidence to suggest that lipid abnormalities (low high-density lipoprotein and high triglycerides) and hypertension were both independently associated with incident severe liver disease. Significant study heterogeneity observed in the meta-analyses and possible under-publishing of smaller negative studies are acknowledged to be limitations, as well as the potential effect of competing risks on outcome. CONCLUSIONS: In this review, we observed that T2DM is associated with a greater than 2-fold increase in the risk of developing severe liver disease. As the incidence of diabetes and obesity continue to rise, using these findings to improve case finding for people at high risk of liver disease will allow for effective management to help address the increasing morbidity and mortality from liver disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018115459.

Optimising clinical effectiveness and quality along the atrial fibrillation anticoagulation pathway: an economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) represents the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia. A service evaluation was carried out at an anticoagulation clinic in Newcastle upon-Tyne to explore the efficacy of introducing self-testing of anticoagulation status for AF patients on warfarin. The analysis presented aims to assess the potential cost savings and clinical outcomes associated with introducing self-testing at a clinic in the Northeast of England, and to determine the cost-effectiveness of a redesigned treatment pathway including genetic testing and self-testing components. METHODS: Questionnaires were administered to individuals participating in the service evaluation to understand the patient costs associated with clinical monitoring (139 patients), and quality-of-life before and after the introduction of self-testing (varying numbers). Additionally, data on time in therapeutic range (TTR) were captured at multiple time points to identify any change in outcome. Finally, an economic model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of introducing a redesigned treatment pathway, including genetic testing and self-testing, for AF patients. RESULTS: The average cost per patient of attending the anticoagulation clinic was £16.24 per visit (including carer costs). Costs were higher amongst patients tested at the hospital clinic than those tested at the community clinic. Improvements in quality-of-life across all psychological topics, and improved TTR, were seen following the introduction of self-testing. Results of the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the redesigned treatment pathway was less costly and more effective than current practice. CONCLUSIONS: Allowing AF patients on warfarin to self-test, rather than attend clinic to have their anticoagulation status assessed, has the potential to reduce patient costs. Additionally, self-testing may result in improved quality-of-life and TTR. Introducing genetic testing to guide patient treatment based on sensitivity to warfarin, and applying this in combination with self-testing, may also result in improved patient outcomes and reduced costs to the health service in the long-term.

Economic evaluation of type 2 diabetes prevention programmes: Markov model of low- and high-intensity lifestyle programmes and metformin in participants with different categories of intermediate hyperglycaemia.

BACKGROUND: National guidance on preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the UK recommends low-intensity lifestyle interventions for individuals with intermediate categories of hyperglycaemia defined in terms of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or 'at-risk' levels of HbA1c. In a recent systematic review of economic evaluations of such interventions, most studies had evaluated intensive trial-based lifestyle programmes in participants with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). This study examines the costs and effects of different intensity lifestyle programmes and metformin in participants with different categories of intermediate hyperglycaemia. METHODS: We developed a decision tree and Markov model (50-year horizon) to compare four approaches, namely (1) a low-intensity lifestyle programme based on current NICE guidance, (2) a high-intensity lifestyle programme based on the US Diabetes Prevention Program, (3) metformin, and (4) no intervention, modelled for three different types of intermediate hyperglycaemia (IFG, IGT and HbA1c). A health system perspective was adopted and incremental analysis undertaken at an individual and population-wide level, taking England as a case study. RESULTS: Low-intensity lifestyle programmes were the most cost-effective (£44/QALY, £195/QALY and £186/QALY compared to no intervention in IGT, IFG and HbA1c, respectively). Intensive lifestyle interventions were also cost-effective compared to no intervention (£2775/QALY, £6820/QALY and £7376/QALY, respectively, in IGT, IFG and HbA1c). Metformin was cost-effective relative to no intervention (£5224/QALY, £6842/QALY and £372/QALY in IGT, IFG and HbA1c, respectively), but was only cost-effective relative to other treatments in participants identified with HbA1c. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY, low- and high-intensity lifestyle programmes were cost-effective 98%, 99% and 98% and 81%, 81% and 71% of the time in IGT, IFG and HbA1c, respectively. An England-wide programme for 50-59 year olds could reduce T2DM incidence by < 3.5% over 50 years and would cost 0.2-5.2% of the current diabetes budget for 2-9 years. DISCUSSION: This analysis suggests that current English national policy of low-intensity lifestyle programmes in participants with IFG or HbA1c will be cost-effective and have the most favourable budget impact, but will prevent only a fraction of cases of T2DM. Additional approaches to prevention need to be investigated urgently.

A Delphi study and ranking exercise to support commissioning services: future delivery of Thrombectomy services in England.

BACKGROUND: Intra-arterial thrombectomy is the gold standard treatment for large artery occlusive stroke. However, the evidence of its benefits is almost entirely based on trials delivered by experienced neurointerventionists working in established teams in neuroscience centres. Those responsible for the design and prospective reconfiguration of services need access to a comprehensive and complementary array of information on which to base their decisions. This will help to ensure the demonstrated effects from trials may be realised in practice and account for regional/local variations in resources and skill-sets. One approach to elucidate the implementation preferences and considerations of key experts is a Delphi survey. In order to support commissioning decisions, we aimed using an electronic Delphi survey to establish consensus on the options for future organisation of thrombectomy services among physicians with clinical experience in managing large artery occlusive stroke. METHODS: A Delphi survey was developed with 12 options for future organisation of thrombectomy services in England. A purposive sampling strategy established an expert panel of stroke physicians from the British Association of Stroke Physicians (BASP) Clinical Standards and/or Executive Membership that deliver 24/7 intravenous thrombolysis. Options with aggregate scores falling within the lowest quartile were removed from the subsequent Delphi round. Options reaching consensus following the two Delphi rounds were then ranked in a final exercise by both the wider BASP membership and the British Society of Neuroradiologists (BSNR). RESULTS: Eleven stroke physicians from BASP completed the initial two Delphi rounds. Three options achieved consensus, with subsequently wider BASP (97%, n = 43) and BSNR members (86%, n = 21) assigning the highest approval rankings in the final exercise for transferring large artery occlusive stroke patients to nearest neuroscience centre for thrombectomy based on local CT/CT Angiography. CONCLUSIONS: The initial Delphi rounds ensured optimal reduction of options by an expert panel of stroke physicians, while subsequent ranking exercises allowed remaining options to be ranked by a wider group of experts within stroke to reach consensus. The preferred implementation option for thrombectomy is investigating suspected acute stroke patients by CT/CT Angiography and secondary transfer of large artery occlusive stroke patients to the nearest neuroscience (thrombectomy) centre.

Automated data analysis of unstructured grey literature in health research: A mapping review.

The amount of grey literature and 'softer' intelligence from social media or websites is vast. Given the long lead-times of producing high-quality peer-reviewed health information, this is causing a demand for new ways to provide prompt input for secondary research. To our knowledge, this is the first review of automated data extraction methods or tools for health-related grey literature and soft data, with a focus on (semi)automating horizon scans, health technology assessments (HTA), evidence maps, or other literature reviews. We searched six databases to cover both health- and computer-science literature. After deduplication, 10% of the search results were screened by two reviewers, the remainder was single-screened up to an estimated 95% sensitivity; screening was stopped early after screening an additional 1000 results with no new includes. All full texts were retrieved, screened, and extracted by a single reviewer and 10% were checked in duplicate. We included 84 papers covering automation for health-related social media, internet fora, news, patents, government agencies and charities, or trial registers. From each paper, we extracted data about important functionalities for users of the tool or method; information about the level of support and reliability; and about practical challenges and research gaps. Poor availability of code, data, and usable tools leads to low transparency regarding performance and duplication of work. Financial implications, scalability, integration into downstream workflows, and meaningful evaluations should be carefully planned before starting to develop a tool, given the vast amounts of data and opportunities those tools offer to expedite research.

Assessing quality of life in solid organ transplant recipients: A systematic review of the development, content, and quality of available condition- and transplant-specific patient-reported outcome measures.

PURPOSE: We aimed to identify the condition- and transplant-specific patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) available to measure quality of life (QoL) in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients, examine their development and content, and critically appraise the quality of their measurement properties, to inform recommendations for clinical and research use. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane CENTRAL, and Scopus from inception to 27th January 2023. Search hits were screened for eligibility by two independent reviewers; papers reporting the development and/or validation of condition- and transplant-specific PROMs measuring QoL in adult SOT recipients were considered eligible. We abstracted and synthesised data on PROM characteristics, development (item generation and/or reduction), and content (QoL dimensions). Quality appraisal and synthesis were informed by the Consensus-based Standards for the Selection of Health Measurement Instruments (COSMIN) guidelines, and included methodological and quality assessment of measurement properties, GRADE levels of evidence, feasibility and interpretability. RESULTS: We identified 33 papers reporting 26 QoL PROMs validated in SOT recipients (kidney n = 10 PROMs; liver n = 6; lung n = 3; heart n = 2; pancreas n = 1; multiple organs n = 4). Patient discussions (n = 17 PROMs) and factor analysis (n = 11) were the most common item generation and reduction techniques used, respectively. All PROMs measured ≥3 of nine QoL dimensions (all measured emotional functioning); KDQoL-SF and NIDDK-QA measured all nine. Methodological quality was variable; no PROM had low evidence or better for all measurement properties. All PROMs were COSMIN recommendation category 'B', primarily because none had sufficient content validity. CONCLUSIONS: There are many condition- and transplant-specific QoL PROMs validated in SOT recipients, particularly kidney. These findings can help inform PROM selection for clinicians and researchers. However, caution is required when adopting measures, due to the substantial heterogeneity in development, content, and quality. Each PROM has potential but requires further research to be recommendable. Greater consideration of patient and professional involvement in PROM development in this setting is needed to ensure sufficient content validity.