Inter- and Intra-individual Variation, and Limited Prognostic Utility, of Serum Alkaline Phosphatase in a Trial of Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score are used as endpoints in trials of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We aimed to quantify inter- and intra-individual variation in levels of ALP and the ELF score over time, and evaluated their association with fibrosis progression. METHODS: We analyzed data from 234 patients with large-duct PSC enrolled in a 2-year, phase 2b placebo-controlled trial of simtuzumab. Participants were assessed by laboratory tests every 4 weeks, and liver biopsies collected at time of screening, week 48, and week 96. RESULTS: Serum levels of ALP and ELF scores did not differ significantly between simtuzumab and placebo groups, so the data were pooled. Median per-patient variations in ALP between clinic visits were approximately 12% over 12 weeks, 20% over 48 weeks, and 20% over 96 weeks. Reductions, unrelated to study intervention, of more than 40% in ALP were observed in 10.9% of patients with baseline activity greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN) and 12.5% of patients with more than 3-fold the ULN at 1 year. At 2 years, reductions of more than 40% in ALP were observed in 15.8% of patients with baseline activity greater than 2-fold the ULN and 17.9% of patients with more than 3-fold the ULN. Among the 209 patients with Ishak fibrosis stage 0-4 at baseline, serum ALP activity did not associate with development of cirrhosis or with a 2-point increase in fibrosis stage at 2 years. In contrast, the median per-patient variation in ELF scores between clinic visits was approximately 3% over 12 weeks, 4% over 48 weeks, and 4% over 96 weeks. Elevated ELF scores at baseline and at weeks 12, 24 and 48, each associated with development of cirrhosis at 2 years (odds ratio >2.75; P < .01 for all timepoints). ELF scores at baseline and weeks 12, 24 and 48, also associated with a 2-point increase in fibrosis stage at 2 years (odds ratios all greater than 2; P < .01 for all timepoints). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from patients with large-duct PSC enrolled in a prospective trial, we found large interindividual and intraindividual variations in serum ALP activity. Serum ALP activity did not associate with disease progression over a 2-year period. Variations in ELF score were smaller, and scores determined at multiple timepoints associated with fibrosis progression and development of cirrhosis.

Twelve weeks of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir all-oral regimen for patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 2 infection: Integrated analysis of three clinical trials.

AIM: The combination of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF) has been approved for the treatment of various hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes across many countries. This article presents an integrated analysis of three prospective phase II/III trials in the Asia-Pacific region to evaluate the efficacy and safety of 12 weeks of LDV/SOF in HCV genotype 2 patients without cirrhosis or with compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 200 patients were included in the integrated analysis. The primary end-point was the rate of sustained virologic response for 12 weeks after the end of therapy (SVR12), analyzed by fibrosis stage, treatment history, HCV genotype subtype, and presence of baseline resistance-associated substitutions (RAS). Safety was evaluated by adverse events and laboratory abnormalities. RESULTS: Twelve weeks of treatment with LDV/SOF was associated with high SVR12 rates (overall 98%) in patients with genotype 2 HCV, irrespective of fibrosis stage, treatment history, genotype 2 subtype, and presence of baseline non-structural protein 5A resistance-associated substitution (NS5A RAS), and LDV/SOF was well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: Twelve weeks of treatment with LDV/SOF provides a highly effective and safe treatment for patients with genotype 2 HCV, including those with advanced fibrosis. As a ribavirin-free and protease inhibitor-free regimen with minimal on-treatment monitoring requirements, LDV/SOF can potentially play a crucial role in achieving the WHO's goal of HCV elimination.

Ten-year efficacy and safety of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate treatment for chronic hepatitis B virus infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is a first-line treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to describe the efficacy and safety profiles of TDF treatment for up to 10 years in a well-described cohort of CHB patients. METHODS: Hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative and HBeAg-positive patients from two randomised, double-blind trials (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00117676 and NCT00116805) completed 48 weeks of randomised treatment with TDF or adefovir dipivoxil. A subset of these patients was then eligible to receive open-label TDF treatment for up to 10 years. At Year 10, patients were assessed for virological suppression, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) normalisation, serological response, safety and tolerability. RESULTS: Of 641 randomised and treated patients, 585 (91%) entered the open-label extension phase with 203 (32%) patients completing Year 10 of the study. At Year 10, 118/118 (100%) of HBeAg-negative patients and 78/80 (98%) of HBeAg-positive patients with available data achieved hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA < 69 IU/mL, while 88/106 (83%) and 60/77 (78%) patients achieved ALT normalisation, respectively. Of the 23 patients with HBeAg status available at Year 10, 12 (52%) and six (27%) experienced HBeAg loss and seroconversion, respectively. No resistance to TDF was documented up to Year 10. In the period between Year 8 and Year 10, the safety profile of TDF was similar to previous reports, with few patients experiencing renal- or bone-related adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Over 10 years, TDF had a favourable safety profile, was well tolerated, and resulted in continued maintenance of virological suppression with no documented resistance.

Correction to: Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Loss with Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Plus Peginterferon Alfa-2a: Week 120 Analysis.

The original version of this article unfortunately contained affiliation and textual errors. This has been corrected with this erratum.

Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Loss with Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Plus Peginterferon Alfa-2a: Week 120 Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss is the ideal clinical endpoint but is achieved rarely during oral antiviral treatment. A current unmet need in CHB management is achievement of HBsAg loss with a finite course of oral antiviral therapy, thereby allowing discontinuation of treatment. Significantly higher rates of HBsAg loss at 72 weeks post-treatment have been demonstrated when tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) was combined with pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) for 48 weeks compared with either monotherapy. This analysis provides follow-up data at week 120. METHODS: In an open-label, active-controlled study, 740 patients with chronic hepatitis B were randomly assigned to receive TDF plus PEG-IFN for 48 weeks (group A), TDF plus PEG-IFN for 16 weeks followed by TDF for 32 weeks (group B), TDF for 120 weeks (group C), or PEG-IFN for 48 weeks (group D). Efficacy and safety at week 120 were assessed. RESULTS: Rates of HBsAg loss at week 120 were significantly higher in group A (10.4%) than in group B (3.5%), group C (0%), and group D (3.5%). Rates of HBsAg loss and HBsAg seroconversion in group A were significantly higher than rates in group C (P < 0.001 for both) or group D (HBsAg loss: P = 0.002; HBsAg seroconversion: P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this analysis confirm the results from earlier time points which demonstrate the increased rate of HBsAg loss in patients treated with a finite course of PEG-IFN plus TDF compared with the rates in patients receiving either monotherapy.

Efficacy and safety of filgotinib as induction and maintenance therapy for Japanese patients with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis: a post-hoc analysis of the phase 2b/3 SELECTION trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The safety and efficacy of filgotinib, a once-daily oral Janus kinase 1 preferential inhibitor, were evaluated in Japanese patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) in the phase 2b/3 SELECTION trial. METHODS: SELECTION (NCT02914522) was a randomized, placebo-controlled trial comprising 2 induction studies and a maintenance study. Adults with moderately to severely active UC were randomized in induction study A (biologic-naïve) or B (biologic-experienced) to receive filgotinib 200 mg, 100 mg, or placebo once daily for 11 weeks. Patients in clinical remission or Mayo Clinic score response at week 10 entered the 47-week maintenance study. Efficacy and safety outcomes were assessed in Japanese patients enrolled in Japan. RESULTS: Overall, 37 and 72 Japanese patients were enrolled in Japan in induction studies A and B, respectively, and 54 entered the maintenance study. Numerically higher proportions of filgotinib 200 mg-treated than placebo-treated patients achieved clinical remission in induction study A (4/15 [26.7%] vs. 0/6 [0%]) and the maintenance study (5/20 [25.0%] vs. 0/9 [0%]), but not induction study B (1/29 [3.4%] vs. 1/14 [7.1%]). Both doses were well tolerated, and no new safety signals were noted. Herpes zoster was reported in 1 filgotinib 200 mg-treated patient in each of induction study A (2.3%, 1/44) and the maintenance study (5.0%, 1/20). CONCLUSIONS: These data, alongside those of the overall SELECTION population, suggest the potential of filgotinib 200 mg as a viable treatment option for Japanese patients with UC. Owing to small patient numbers, data should be interpreted cautiously.

Safety and efficacy of stopping tenofovir disoproxil fumarate in patients with chronic hepatitis B following at least 8 years of therapy: a prespecified follow-up analysis of two randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Effective and well tolerated nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment exists for patients with chronic hepatitis B, although treatment is generally anticipated to be life-long, with concomitant costs and treatment-related side-effects. We aimed to characterise the outcomes of patients with persistent viral suppression who discontinued nucleotide analogue use after extended treatment. METHODS: The primary objective of this prespecified analysis was to evaluate the safety of stopping long-term tenofovir disoproxil fumarate therapy in patients enrolled in two (completed) randomised controlled studies, GS-US-174-0102 (ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00117676) and GS-US-174-0103 (ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00116805). In those studies, patients who had completed 8 years or more of nucleotide analogue treatment, were hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive with hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA concentration of less than 29 IU/mL, and were unwilling or unable to continue therapy were required by protocol to enter a 24-week treatment-free follow-up (TFFU) phase. We present data for patients in the TFFU phase who were assessed at baseline and monitored every 4 weeks for changes in qualitative serum HBsAg, HBV DNA, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) concentrations in addition to standard safety assessments. FINDINGS: Of 124 patients who entered the TFFU phase, 54 (44%) patients did not complete 24 weeks of follow-up (median 12 weeks; IQR 0-20). Overall, 32 (26%) patients reported an adverse event. Serious adverse events occurred in five (4%) patients, including elevated ALT concentrations in two patients, hepatic flare in two patients, and increased lipase in one patient. 38 (31%) of patients had grade 3 or higher laboratory abnormalities, the majority of which were ALT elevations (36 patients). Of the 106 hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients who entered the TFFU phase, 63 (59%) were followed for 24 weeks. HBsAg loss was observed in five (5%) of the 106 HBeAg-negative patients who entered the TFFU phase, and 37 (35%) had both HBV DNA concentrations of less than 2000 IU/mL and ALT concentrations less than the ULN at TFFU week 24. 18 HBeAg-positive patients entered the TFFU phase, of whom seven (39%) were followed up for 24 weeks. Of these seven patients, none had HBsAg loss or HBV DNA of less than 2000 IU/mL and one (14%) had an ALT less than the ULN at week 24. INTERPRETATION: Within 24 weeks of stopping 8 years or more of nucleotide analogue therapy almost a third of patients experienced a grade 3 or higher laboratory abnormality. Although few patients achieved HBsAg loss, a subgroup of HBeAg-negative patients can achieve a low-replicative state within a short duration of follow-up. FUNDING: Gilead Sciences, Inc.

Teriparatide reduces the fracture risk associated with increasing number and severity of osteoporotic fractures.

The relationship between prior fractures and risk of new fractures was evaluated in 931 postmenopausal women with prevalent vertebral fractures randomized to daily placebo or teriparatide (20 mug) in the Fracture Prevention Trial. The median observation time was 21 months. Among placebo patients with one, two, or three or more prevalent vertebral fractures, 7%, 16%, and 23%, respectively, developed vertebral fractures (by Cochran-Armitage trend test, P < 0.001), and 3%, 9%, and 17% developed moderate or severe vertebral fractures (P < 0.001). Among placebo patients with mild, moderate, or severe prevalent vertebral fractures, 10%, 13%, and 28%, respectively, developed vertebral fractures (P < 0.001), and 4%, 8%, and 23% developed moderate or severe vertebral fractures (P < 0.001). Among placebo patients with zero, one, or two or more prior nonvertebral fragility fractures, 4%, 8%, and 18%, respectively, developed nonvertebral fragility fractures (P < 0.001). In the teriparatide-treated group, there was no significant increase in vertebral or nonvertebral fracture risk in these subgroups. In summary, the number and severity of prevalent vertebral fractures independently predicted the risk for new vertebral fractures, and the number of prior nonvertebral fractures predicted the risk for new nonvertebral fractures in placebo patients. However, in teriparatide-treated patients, the increased fracture risk associated with prior number and severity of fracture was not observed.

Prognostic utility of a semiquantitative spinal deformity index.

The semiquantitative spinal deformity index (SDI) is a summary measure of the vertebral fracture status of the spine incorporating both the number and severity of vertebral fractures. For each vertebra, a visual semiquantitative grade of 0, 1, 2, or 3 is assigned for no fracture or mild, moderate, or severe fracture, respectively, and the SDI is calculated by summing the fracture grades of all vertebrae (T4 to L4). We investigated the effect of prevalent vertebral fracture number and severity, as integrated by the SDI, on 3-year vertebral fracture risk by performing logistic regression modeling with data from the MORE trial. There was a striking linear relationship between baseline SDI and the model-based vertebral fracture risk estimates, with a near-perfect correlation (r = 0.98, P < 0.001). However, the SDI may be overly simplistic, as a given SDI value can be attained through differing vertebral fracture scenarios (i.e., an SDI of 3 can be realized three ways), each corresponding to potentially different vertebral fracture risk. To address this issue, a second, more complex model was constructed that included individual predictor variables for number of mild, number of moderate, and number of severe prevalent vertebral fractures. The model-based risk estimates for vertebral fracture using the SDI and the more complex model were highly correlated (r = 0.91, P < 0.001), giving almost identical values up to an SDI of 5. Thus, for most clinical scenarios, it is not necessary to consider the particular fracture configuration that led to a given SDI score for predicting a patient's future vertebral fracture risk. These results validate the SDI as an accurate tool for assessing future vertebral fracture risk; patients with greater baseline SDI had greater future risk for vertebral fractures.

Reduction in vertebral fracture risk in teriparatide-treated postmenopausal women as assessed by spinal deformity index.

Teriparatide is the first bone-building drug available for the treatment of osteoporosis. We investigated the efficacy of this compound as assessed by spinal deformity index (SDI) using data from the Fracture Prevention Trial (FPT). The FPT was a randomized, double blind trial of placebo versus teriparatide 20 microg (TPTD20) versus teriparatide 40 microg (TPTD40) administered by daily self-injection. Patients included in the current analyses were those patients from the placebo (n = 398) and TPTD20 (the approved dose, n = 403) groups with baseline and follow-up radiographs and at least one vertebral fracture at baseline. For each vertebra, a visual semiquantitative grade of 0, 1, 2, or 3 was assigned for no fracture or mild, moderate, or severe fracture, respectively; the SDI was calculated by summing the fracture grades of all T4 to L4 vertebrae. The mean SDI increased in the placebo and TPTD20 groups by 0.485 and 0.134, respectively (P < 0.001). The proportions of patients with SDI increases >1, >2, and >3 were reduced by 85%, 80%, and 80%, respectively. In the placebo group, increasing baseline SDI was correlated with the mean increase in SDI during the trial (r = 0.080, P = 0.01), consistent with the progressive natural history of osteoporosis. However, in the TPTD20 group, increasing baseline SDI was not correlated with the mean increase in SDI during the trial (P = 0.297) indicating that teriparatide mitigated or eliminated the increased risk associated with increasing fracture burden. Increases in SDI during the trial were associated with increasing proportions of patients with new or worsening back pain and greater mean height loss (P < 0.0001), demonstrating an association with important clinical consequences. The results indicate that teriparatide greatly reduced the increase in fracture burden in the FPT and mitigated or eliminated the risk for future fractures imparted by increasing baseline fracture burden.

Differential effects of teriparatide on BMD after treatment with raloxifene or alendronate.

UNLABELLED: We investigated the effects of 18 months of treatment with teriparatide in patients previously treated with long-term antiresorptive therapy using bone turnover markers and bone densitometry. Previous raloxifene treatment allowed for teriparatide-induced early bone marker and BMD increases comparable with previously published results for treatment-näive patients. Conversely, previous alendronate treatment reduced the bone marker and BMD response. INTRODUCTION: Teriparatide [rhPTH(1-34)] has been shown to increase BMD and reduce the risk of fracture in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Our objective was to investigate the skeletal effects of 18 months of treatment with teriparatide in women whose osteoporosis was previously treated with either alendronate or raloxifene. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Daily subcutaneous injections of 20 microg teriparatide were administered for 18 months to 59 postmenopausal women, 60-87 years of age, with BMD T-scores

Relationship between changes in biochemical markers of bone turnover and BMD to predict vertebral fracture risk.

UNLABELLED: The change in BMD is a poor predictor of vertebral fracture risk after raloxifene treatment. One-year percent change in bone turnover and BMD was used to predict vertebral fracture risk. The percent change in osteocalcin was determined to be a better predictor of vertebral fracture risk than BMD. INTRODUCTION: The association between baseline BMD and fracture risk is well understood. However, the relationship between changes in BMD and fracture risk is not well defined. It has previously been demonstrated that BMD change was a poor predictor of vertebral fracture risk in raloxifene-treated women, whereas bone turnover markers were significantly associated with fracture risk. In the current analysis, we explore the prediction of vertebral fracture risk using changes in both BMD and bone turnover. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) trial was a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of 7705 women with osteoporosis treated with raloxifene 60 or 120 mg/day for 3 years. Markers of bone turnover were measured in one-third of the study population (n = 2503), and the present analyses include these women. Logistic regression models were constructed using one-year percent changes in BMD and bone turnover and relevant baseline demographics to predict the risk of vertebral fracture with pooled raloxifene therapy at 3 years. All covariates were standardized before modeling to facilitate direct comparisons between changes in BMD and bone turnover. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Prevalent vertebral fracture status (p < 0.0001), baseline lumbar spine BMD (p < 0.0001), and number of years postmenopausal (p = 0.0005) were independent predictors of fracture risk in raloxifene-treated patients. Therapy-by-change in femoral neck BMD (p = 0.02) and therapy-by-change in osteocalcin (OC; p = 0.01) were also significant for all treatment groups, indicating that changes in BMD and OC have different effects on fracture risk for the placebo and pooled raloxifene groups. The final model included significant baseline variables and change in OC (p = 0.01), whereas change in femoral neck BMD was not significant. After adjustment of each significant baseline variable, the percent change in OC was better able to predict the reduction in vertebral fracture risk than the percent change in femoral neck BMD in patients treated with raloxifene.

Efficacy and safety of raloxifene 60 milligrams/day in postmenopausal Asian women.

In healthy Caucasian postmenopausal women, raloxifene increases bone mineral density (BMD), decreases biochemical markers of bone turnover, and lowers low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, without effects on high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and triglycerides. This randomized, double-blind study examines the effects of raloxifene 60 mg/d (n = 483) or placebo (n = 485) in healthy postmenopausal Asian women (mean age 57 yr) from Australia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Serum osteocalcin, serum N-telopeptide, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides were assessed at baseline and 6 months. Lumbar spine BMD was measured at baseline and 1 yr in 309 women from 4 countries. Clinical adverse events were recorded at each interim visit. At 6 months, raloxifene 60 mg/d significantly decreased osteocalcin, N-telopeptide, total cholesterol, and LDL cholesterol by medians of 15.9%, 14.6%, 5.3%, and 7.7%, respectively, from placebo. Changes in HDL cholesterol and triglycerides were similar between raloxifene and placebo. Raloxifene 60 mg/d increased mean lumbar spine BMD (1.9%) from placebo at 1 yr (P = 0.0003). The incidences of hot flashes (placebo 3.5%, raloxifene 5.6%, P = 0.12), and leg cramps (placebo 2.7%, raloxifene 4.3%, P = 0.16) were not different between groups. No case of venous thromboembolism was reported. The effects of raloxifene 60 mg/d on bone turnover, BMD, and serum lipids in healthy postmenopausal Asian women were similar to that previously reported in Caucasian women.

Prevention of osteoporosis and uterine effects in postmenopausal women taking raloxifene for 5 years.

OBJECTIVE: Raloxifene hydrochloride (60 mg/day) is a selective estrogen receptor modulator indicated for the prevention and treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Raloxifene treatment for 3 years increases bone mineral density (BMD) and, unlike tamoxifen (a triphenylethylene selective estrogen receptor modulator), does not stimulate the endometrium in healthy postmenopausal women. The effect of longer duration of treatment with raloxifene is not known. Therefore, the main objectives of these analyses are (1) to compare the effect of 5 years of treatment with raloxifene (60 mg/day) with placebo in terms of the likelihood of developing osteoporosis and (2) to evaluate the effect of 5 years of raloxifene treatment on the endometrium and incidence of vaginal bleeding. DESIGN: The current analyses include integrated data from two identically designed, prospective, double-blinded trials including postmenopausal women (mean age, 55 years) randomly assigned to either placebo (n = 143) or raloxifene (60 mg/day; n = 185). Osteoporosis and osteopenia were diagnosed according to World Health Organization criteria, using the manufacturer's database for the lumbar spine and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey's 1998 reference base for the hip. Endometrial thickness was determined using transvaginal ultrasonography. Clinical diagnoses of endometrial hyperplasia or endometrial cancer were confirmed by blinded review of histopathology reports. RESULTS: Compared with the case of placebo, raloxifene treatment for 5 years reduced bone turnover markers (osteocalcin: -10.9%, P < 0.001; bone-specific alkaline phosphatase: -7.2%, P = 0.042; urinary C-telopeptide: -11.1%, P = 0.034) and was associated with increased BMD in the lumbar spine (2.8%; P < 0.001) and total hip BMD (2.6%; P < 0.001). Women taking raloxifene were less likely to develop osteoporosis (relative risk [RR] for raloxifene v placebo: 0.13; 95% CI: 0.00, 0.37; P = 0.001) or osteopenia (RR: 0.23; 95% CI: 0.00, 0.81; P = 0.038) at the lumbar spine and were more likely to convert to normal BMD status at the lumbar spine (RR: 4.01; 95% CI: 1.34, 11.23; P = 0.043) and total hip (RR: 3.92; 95% CI: 1.12,14.27; P = 0.011) at 5 years, compared with the case of placebo. Raloxifene also significantly reduced total cholesterol (-5.5%; P < 0.001) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-8.7%; P < 0.001), compared with the case of placebo. No significant changes in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P = 0.257) or triglycerides (P = 0.620) were detected. Incidence of hot flashes was higher among women taking raloxifene compared with those taking placebo [raloxifene, 47 (28.8%); placebo, 21 (16.8%); P = 0.017]. Women taking placebo or raloxifene reported a similar incidence of vaginal bleeding (P = 0.999) or of mean endometrial thickness of more than 5 mm at baseline and at each visit, up to the 5-year endpoint (P >/= 0.349). No diagnoses of endometrial hyperplasia or endometrial cancer were made in either treatment group. CONCLUSIONS: Five years of raloxifene treatment in healthy postmenopausal women preserves BMD, significantly reduces the likelihood of development of osteoporosis, and was not associated with an increased rate of vaginal bleeding, endometrial hyperplasia, or endometrial carcinoma, compared with the case of placebo.

Raloxifene prevents the growth of uterine leiomyomas in premenopausal women.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of raloxifene administration on uterine leiomyoma size in premenopausal women. DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, open-label, controlled clinical trial. SETTING: Tertiary care unit, University of Vienna, Austria. PATIENT(S): Twenty-five premenopausal women with uterine leiomyomas. INTERVENTION(S): Three months of treatment with raloxifene (180 mg/d) or no treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Baseline to end point percent change difference in leiomyoma volume between the therapy and control groups. RESULT(S): Raloxifene treatment prevented the progression of uterine leiomyomas. Compared with no medical intervention, raloxifene resulted in a decrease of myoma volume. Raloxifene was clinically well tolerated. No significant differences were detected in symptoms related to leiomyomas and hormonal status. CONCLUSION(S): In premenopausal women, high-dose raloxifene is well tolerated and inhibits the growth of leiomyomas.

How conservative is Fisher's exact test? A quantitative evaluation of the two-sample comparative binomial trial.

The debate as to which statistical methodology is most appropriate for the analysis of the two-sample comparative binomial trial has persisted for decades. Practitioners who favor the conditional methods of Fisher, Fisher's exact test (FET), claim that only experimental outcomes containing the same amount of information should be considered when performing analyses. Hence, the total number of successes should be fixed at its observed level in hypothetical repetitions of the experiment. Using conditional methods in clinical settings can pose interpretation difficulties, since results are derived using conditional sample spaces rather than the set of all possible outcomes. Perhaps more importantly from a clinical trial design perspective, this test can be too conservative, resulting in greater resource requirements and more subjects exposed to an experimental treatment. The actual significance level attained by FET (the size of the test) has not been reported in the statistical literature. Berger (J. R. Statist. Soc. D (The Statistician) 2001; 50:79-85) proposed assessing the conservativeness of conditional methods using p-value confidence intervals. In this paper we develop a numerical algorithm that calculates the size of FET for sample sizes, n, up to 125 per group at the two-sided significance level, alpha = 0.05. Additionally, this numerical method is used to define new significance levels alpha(*) = alpha+epsilon, where epsilon is a small positive number, for each n, such that the size of the test is as close as possible to the pre-specified alpha (0.05 for the current work) without exceeding it. Lastly, a sample size and power calculation example are presented, which demonstrates the statistical advantages of implementing the adjustment to FET (using alpha(*) instead of alpha) in the two-sample comparative binomial trial.

Anti-vertebral fracture efficacy of raloxifene: a meta-analysis.

In the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) trial, raloxifene reduced the risk of vertebral fracture. However, a systematic analysis of the anti-vertebral fracture efficacy of raloxifene, which includes the results of newly reported studies, has not been performed. A meta-analysis was carried out using all randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials to determine whether the reduction in the risk for vertebral fracture, reported with raloxifene, was consistent among studies, and to define more accurately the point estimate of the odds ratio. Three prevention studies, two arms of the MORE trial, and three additional treatment studies in which fracture data were available from prospectively scheduled spinal radiographs were included in the analysis. A systematic review of the literature (MedLine, EMBASE) confirmed that no studies with raloxifene had been excluded from this analysis. The effects of raloxifene 60 mg/day (RLX60) and 120 mg/day pooled with 150 mg/day (RLX120/150) were analyzed by intention to treat. There was no significant heterogeneity among the studies included in the meta-analysis. Odds ratio estimates (95% CI) were 0.60 (0.49, 0.74) for RLX60 and 0.51 (0.41, 0.64) for RLX120/150. From these data we infer that raloxifene consistently reduces the risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women.

Effects of raloxifene, hormone replacement therapy, and placebo on bone turnover in postmenopausal women.

Raloxifene, a nonsteroidal selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM), increases bone mineral density (BMD), decreases biochemical markers of bone turnover, and prevents incident vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women, while sparing the breast and endometrium from the undesirable stimulation caused by estrogen. How the long-term beneficial effects of raloxifene on bone turnover, as assessed by bone histomorphometry, compare with hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and placebo are not known. We studied 66 healthy postmenopausal women (age 55 to 75 years, mean 63 years) who were randomized to either raloxifene 150 mg/day, HRT (Premarin 0.625 mg/day, and Provera 2.5 mg/day), or placebo for 1 year. All women received 1-1.5 g of calcium/day. Following double tetracycline labeling, transiliac bone biopsies were obtained at baseline and 1 year and analyzed for changes in histologic indexes of bone remodeling on the cancellous surface as well as at the endocortical subdivision of the endosteal envelope, the location of the greatest fraction of postmenopausal bone loss. BMD and biochemical markers of bone turnover were also determined at baseline and 1 year. Four paired biopsies were obtained in the HRT group, six in the raloxifene group, and five in the placebo group. The frequency of remodeling events on cancellous bone and rate of bone formation in both cancellous and endocortical bone increased in the placebo group, while these measurements decreased in both drug treatment groups. Using analysis of mean percentage changes, when compared with the placebo group, these changes were significantly different for both raloxifene and HRT treatment groups (p<0.02). In all subjects, the bone was lamellar with discrete tetracycline labels and there was no evidence of marrow fibrosis or abnormal bone cells. BMD increased from baseline at the lumbar spine (p<0.05 in the HRT group) and in the total body (p<0.05 for both raloxifene and HRT). Compared with that of the raloxifene group, the increase in BMD was greater in the HRT group at the lumbar spine but not in the total body. Serum bone alkaline phosphatase, serum osteocalcin, and urine C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen significantly decreased (p<0.05) in both active treatment groups, changes significantly different from those seen with placebo. Overall, these results support the hypothesis that raloxifene preserves bone mass by reducing the elevated bone turnover found in postmenopausal women receiving placebo, by mechanisms similar to those operative in postmenopausal women receiving HRT.