A New Type 2 Diabetes Microsimulation Model to Estimate Long-Term Health Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a microsimulation model to estimate the health effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of public health and clinical interventions for preventing/managing type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We combined newly developed equations for complications, mortality, risk factor progression, patient utility, and cost-all based on US studies-in a microsimulation model. We performed internal and external validation of the model. To demonstrate the model's utility, we predicted remaining life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and lifetime medical cost for a representative cohort of 10 000 US adults with type 2 diabetes. We then estimated the cost-effectiveness of reducing hemoglobin A1c from 9% to 7% among adults with type 2 diabetes, using low-cost, generic, oral medications. RESULTS: The model performed well in internal validation; the average absolute difference between simulated and observed incidence for 17 complications was < 8%. In external validation, the model was better at predicting outcomes in clinical trials than in observational studies. The cohort of US adults with type 2 diabetes was projected to have an average of 19.95 remaining life-years (from mean age 61), incur $187 729 in discounted medical costs, and accrue 8.79 discounted QALYs. The intervention to reduce hemoglobin A1c increased medical costs by $1256 and QALYs by 0.39, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $9103 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Using equations exclusively derived from US studies, this new microsimulation model achieves good prediction accuracy in US populations. The model can be used to estimate the long-term health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes in the United States.

Automated Electronic Frailty Index is Associated with Non-home Discharge in Patients Undergoing Open Revascularization for Peripheral Vascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is associated with adverse surgical outcomes including post-operative complications, needs for post-acute care, and mortality. While multiple frailty screening tools exist, most are time and resource intensive. Here we examine the association of an automated electronic frailty index (eFI), derived from routine data in the Electronic Health Record (EHR), with outcomes in vascular surgery patients undergoing open, lower extremity revascularization. METHODS: A retrospective analysis at a single academic medical center from 2015 to 2019 was completed. Information extracted from the EHR included demographics, eFI, comorbidity, and procedure type. Frailty status was defined as fit (eFI≤0.10), pre-frail (0.100.21). Outcomes included length of stay (LOS), 30-day readmission, and non-home discharge. RESULTS: We included 295 patients (mean age 65.9 years; 31% female), with the majority classified as pre-frail (57%) or frail (32%). Frail patients exhibited a higher degree of comorbidity and were more likely to be classified as American Society of Anesthesiologist class IV (frail: 46%, pre-frail: 27%, and fit: 18%, P = 0.0012). There were no statistically significant differences in procedure type, LOS, or 30-day readmissions based on eFI. Frail patients were more likely to expire in the hospital or be discharged to an acute care facility (31%) compared to pre-frail (14%) and fit patients (15%, P = 0.002). Adjusting for comorbidity, risk of non-home discharge was higher comparing frail to pre-frail patients (OR 3.01, 95% CI 1.40-6.48). DISCUSSION: Frail patients, based on eFI, undergoing elective, open, lower extremity revascularization were twice as likely to not be discharged home.

Influence of Preoperative and Postoperative Factors on Prolonged Length of Stay and Readmission After Minimally Invasive Radical Prostatectomy.

Background: The mean length of stay (LOS) after minimally invasive radical prostatectomy (MI-RP) is <2 days. Our main objective was to utilize the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database to evaluate preoperative factors that may contribute to prolonged hospital stay and readmission. Materials and Methods: Utilizing the NSQIP database, records for surgery with the Current Procedural Terminology code 55866 (prostatectomy) between 2007 and 2017 were evaluated. Chi-square and t-tests were used to assess the effects of preoperative factors on prolonged LOS and rates of hospital readmission within 30 days. Odds ratios (ORs), p-values, and confidence intervals were determined using multivariable logistic regression. Results: A total of 40,764 patients underwent MI-RP between 2007 and 2017. Of these, 11.7% reported an LOS of >2 days, whereas 3.9% of patients were readmitted to the hospital within 30 days. Preoperative congestive heart failure within 30 days of surgery was shown to be strongly associated with both prolonged LOS (OR = 6.16) and readmission (OR = 3.28). Bleeding requiring transfusion was demonstrated to be the most significant postoperative factor for prolonged LOS (OR = 23.9), whereas unplanned intubation was shown to be the most significant postoperative factor for readmission (OR = 57.1). Body mass index (BMI) >30 was associated with both prolonged LOS and increase in readmission. Conclusions: Upon NSQIP database analysis, cardiopulmonary factors and BMI were demonstrated to have negative impacts on postoperative quality indicators. Patients with comorbidities should be counseled preoperatively concerning their individual risk factors. Mitigation of these factors is important in ensuring optimal outcomes.

Estimating chromatographic enantioselectivity (α) from gradient enantioselective chromatography data.

Calculation of chromatographic enantioselectivity (α) is critically important in enantioselective chromatographic method development studies. The fact that α can only be calculated from isocratic elution conditions, whereas gradient elution conditions are predominantly used in method development screening, presents some problems for the use of α as a scoring indicator for automated, intelligent enantioselective chromatography method development systems. In this study, an empirical algorithm was developed to estimate α at isocratic conditions based upon information collected from a gradient elution. The algorithm was validated for SFC applications and has been shown to accurately predict enantioselectivity for a wide variety of racemic test analytes eluted on different chiral column and mobile phase conditions.

Effect of pravastatin in people with diabetes and chronic kidney disease.

Although diabetes is a major cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD), limited data describe the cardiovascular benefit of hydroxymethyl glutaryl CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) in people with both of these conditions. This study sought to determine whether pravastatin reduced the incidence of first or recurrent cardiovascular events in people with non-dialysis-dependent CKD and concomitant diabetes, using data from three randomized trials of pravastatin 40 mg daily versus placebo. CKD was defined by estimated GFR <60 or 60 to 89.9 ml/min per 1.73 m2 with proteinuria. Of 19,737 patients, 4099 (20.8%) had CKD but not diabetes at baseline, 873 (4.4%) had diabetes but not CKD, and 571 (2.9%) had both conditions. The primary composite outcome was time to myocardial infarction, coronary death, or percutaneous/surgical coronary revascularization. Median follow-up was 64 mo. After adjustment for trial and random treatment assignment, the incidence of the primary outcome was lowest in individuals with neither CKD nor diabetes (15.2%), intermediate in individuals with only CKD (18.6%) or only diabetes (21.3%), and highest in individuals with both characteristics (27.0%). Pravastatin reduced the relative likelihood of the primary outcome to a similar extent in subgroups defined by the presence or absence of CKD and diabetes. For example, pravastatin was associated with a significant reduction in the relative risk of the primary outcome by 25% in patients with CKD and concomitant diabetes and by 24% in individuals with neither characteristic. However, the absolute reduction in the risk of the primary outcome as a result of pravastatin use was highest in patients with both CKD and diabetes (6.4%) and lowest in individuals with neither characteristic (3.5%). In conclusion, stage 2 or early stage 3 CKD and diabetes both are associated with higher cardiovascular risk, and pravastatin reduces cardiovascular event rates in people with neither, one, or both characteristics. Given the high absolute benefit of pravastatin in patient with diabetes and stage 2 or early stage 3 CKD, this population in particular should be targeted for widespread use of statins. Additional studies are needed to determine whether these benefits apply to patients with more severe CKD, and recruitment to such studies should be given high priority.