Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The public health impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. METHODS: Using a mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. RESULTS: The impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R = 1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalization) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focused on hospitalized-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Development, environmental degradation, and disease spread in the Brazilian Amazon.

The Amazon is Brazil's greatest natural resource and invaluable to the rest of the world as a buffer against climate change. The recent election of Brazil's president brought disputes over development plans for the region back into the spotlight. Historically, the development model for the Amazon has focused on exploitation of natural resources, resulting in environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. Although considerable attention has focused on the long-term global cost of "losing the Amazon," too little attention has focused on the emergence and reemergence of vector-borne diseases that directly impact the local population, with spillover effects to other neighboring areas. We discuss the impact of Amazon development models on human health, with a focus on vector-borne disease risk. We outline policy actions that could mitigate these negative impacts while creating opportunities for environmentally sensitive economic activities.

Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia.

Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymized line list data on approximately 105,000 Zika virus disease and 412,000 chikungunya fever suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases during the 2014-2017 epidemics. We first determined the week of invasion in each city. Out of 1,122, 288 cities met criteria for epidemic invasion by ZIKV and 338 cities by CHIKV. We analyzed risk factors for invasion using linear and logistic regression models. We also estimated that the geographic origin of both epidemics was located in Barranquilla, north Colombia. We assessed the spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of both viruses to analyze transmission between cities using a suite of (i) gravity models, (ii) Stouffer's rank models, and (iii) radiation models with two types of distance metrics, geographic distance and travel time between cities. Invasion risk was best captured by a gravity model when accounting for geographic distance and intermediate levels of density dependence; Stouffer's rank model with geographic distance performed similarly well. Although a few long-distance invasion events occurred at the beginning of the epidemics, an estimated distance power of 1.7 (95% CrI: 1.5-2.0) from the gravity models suggests that spatial spread was primarily driven by short-distance transmission. Similarities between the epidemics were highlighted by jointly fitted models, which were preferred over individual models when the transmission intensity was allowed to vary across arboviruses. However, ZIKV spread considerably faster than CHIKV.

Spatiotemporal variations in exposure: Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study.

Age-stratified serosurvey data are often used to understand spatiotemporal trends in disease incidence and exposure through estimating the Force-of-Infection (FoI). Typically, median or mean FoI estimates are used as the response variable in predictive models, often overlooking the uncertainty in estimated FoI values when fitting models and evaluating their predictive ability. To assess how this uncertainty impact predictions, we compared three approaches with three levels of uncertainty integration. We propose a performance indicator to assess how predictions reflect initial uncertainty.In Colombia, 76 serosurveys (1980-2014) conducted at municipality level provided age-stratified Chagas disease prevalence data. The yearly FoI was estimated at the serosurvey level using a time-varying catalytic model. Environmental, demographic and entomological predictors were used to fit and predict the FoI at municipality level from 1980 to 2010 across Colombia.A stratified bootstrap method was used to fit the models without temporal autocorrelation at the serosurvey level. The predictive ability of each model was evaluated to select the best-fit models within urban, rural and (Amerindian) indigenous settings. Model averaging, with the 10 best-fit models identified, was used to generate predictions.Our analysis shows a risk of overconfidence in model predictions when median estimates of FoI alone are used to fit and evaluate models, failing to account for uncertainty in FoI estimates. Our proposed methodology fully propagates uncertainty in the estimated FoI onto the generated predictions, providing realistic assessments of both central tendency and current uncertainty surrounding exposure to Chagas disease.

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

Genomic Epidemiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, Colombia.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Colombia was first diagnosed in a traveler arriving from Italy on February 26, 2020. However, limited data are available on the origins and number of introductions of COVID-19 into the country. We sequenced the causative agent of COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), from 43 clinical samples we collected, along with another 79 genome sequences available from Colombia. We investigated the emergence and importation routes for SARS-CoV-2 into Colombia by using epidemiologic, historical air travel, and phylogenetic observations. Our study provides evidence of multiple introductions, mostly from Europe, and documents >12 lineages. Phylogenetic findings validate the lineage diversity, support multiple importation events, and demonstrate the evolutionary relationship of epidemiologically linked transmission chains. Our results reconstruct the early evolutionary history of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia and highlight the advantages of genome sequencing to complement COVID-19 outbreak investigations.

Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions.

BACKGROUND: After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their "test, trace, isolate" strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea's outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. METHODS: We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. RESULTS: We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI, 1.64-2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June, Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent "lockdown" measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high-incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late February. Testing the capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly; however, we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst early adoption of testing and contact tracing is likely to be important for South Korea's successful outbreak control, other factors including regional implementation of strong social distancing measures likely also contributed. The high volume of testing and the low number of deaths suggest that South Korea experienced a small epidemic relative to other countries. Caution is needed in attempting to replicate the South Korean response in populations with larger more geographically widespread epidemics where finding, testing, and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult.

Complementary Paths to Chagas Disease Elimination: The Impact of Combining Vector Control With Etiological Treatment.

Background: The World Health Organization's 2020 goals for Chagas disease are (1) interrupting vector-borne intradomiciliary transmission and (2) having all infected people under care in endemic countries. Insecticide spraying has proved efficacious for reaching the first goal, but active transmission remains in several regions. For the second, treatment has mostly been restricted to recently infected patients, who comprise only a small proportion of all infected individuals. Methods: We extended our previous dynamic transmission model to simulate a domestic Chagas disease transmission cycle and examined the effects of both vector control and etiological treatment on achieving the operational criterion proposed by the Pan American Health Organization for intradomiciliary, vectorial transmission interruption (ie, <2% seroprevalence in children <5 years of age). Results: Depending on endemicity, an antivectorial intervention that decreases vector density by 90% annually would achieve the transmission interruption criterion in 2-3 years (low endemicity) to >30 years (high endemicity). When this strategy is combined with annual etiological treatment in 10% of the infected human population, the seroprevalence criterion would be achieved, respectively, in 1 and 11 years. Conclusions: Combining highly effective vector control with etiological (trypanocidal) treatment in humans would substantially reduce time to transmission interruption as well as infection incidence and prevalence. However, the success of vector control may depend on prevailing vector species. It will be crucial to improve the coverage of screening programs, the performance of diagnostic tests, the proportion of people treated, and the efficacy of trypanocidal drugs. While screening and access can be incremented as part of strengthening the health systems response, improving diagnostics performance and drug efficacy will require further research.

Increasing access to comprehensive care for Chagas disease: development of a patient-centered model in Colombia.

Worldwide, over 6 million people are infected with Trypanosoma cruzi, the pathogen that causes Chagas disease (CD). In the Americas, CD creates the greatest burden in disability-adjusted life years of any parasitic infection. In Colombia, 437 000 people are infected with T. cruzi, of whom 131 000 suffer from cardiomyopathy. Colombia's annual costs for treating patients with advanced CD reach US$ 175 016 000. Although timely etiological treatment can significantly delay or prevent development of cardiomyopathy-and costs just US$ 30 per patient-fewer than 1% of people with CD in Colombia and elsewhere receive it. This represents a missed opportunity for increasing patients' healthy, productive years of life while significantly reducing the economic burden on the health care system. Key barriers are complexities and delays in the diagnosis and treatment process, lack of awareness of CD among both patients and health care professionals, and administrative barriers at the primary care level. In 2015, stakeholders from government, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and patient associations participated in a seminar in the city of Bogotá on eliminating barriers to diagnosis and treatment for CD. The seminar gave birth to a model of care for increasing patient access, including a patient road map that simplifies diagnostic and treatment processes, shifting them from specialists to primary care facilities. The patient road map was implemented in a pilot project in four endemic communities beginning in 2016, with the goal of testing and refining the model so it can be implemented nationally. This article describes key components in the development of a new, recently implemented model of care for CD in Colombia.

En todo el mundo, hay más de 6 millones de personas infectadas por el Trypanosoma cruzi, el agente patógeno causante de la enfermedad de Chagas. En la Región de las Américas, esta es la infección parasitaria que tiene la mayor carga en cuanto a años de vida ajustados en función de la discapacidad. En Colombia, 437 000 personas están infectadas por el T. cruzi; de ese total, 131 000 sufren de miocardiopatía. En ese país, el costo anual de tratar a los pacientes que tienen la enfermedad de Chagas se ubica en US$ 175 016 000. A pesar de que un tratamiento etiológico oportuno puede retrasar o prevenir significativamente la aparición de una miocardiopatía ­a un costo de apenas US$ 30 por paciente­ menos de 1% de las personas con enfermedad de Chagas en Colombia y otros países lo reciben. Esto implica que se pierde la oportunidad de incrementar el número de años de vida saludables y productivos de los pacientes y, al mismo tiempo, reducir significativamente la carga económica que soporta el sistema de atención de salud. Los obstáculos clave son la complejidad y las demoras en los procesos de diagnóstico y tratamiento, la falta de conocimiento sobre la enfermedad de Chagas por parte de los pacientes y de los profesionales de la salud, y las barreras administrativas que existen a nivel de la atención primaria.En el 2015, representantes del gobierno, la comunidad académica, organizaciones no gubernamentales y asociaciones de pacientes participaron en un seminario en Bogotá sobre la eliminación de las barreras al diagnóstico y el tratamiento de la enfermedad de Chagas. En este seminario se elaboró un modelo de atención para aumentar el acceso de los pacientes, incluida una hoja de ruta centrada en el paciente que simplifica los procesos de diagnóstico y tratamiento al trasladarlos de los especialistas a los establecimientos de atención primaria. La hoja de ruta centrada en el paciente se aplicó a principios del 2016 como parte de un proyecto piloto que se puso en marcha en cuatro comunidades endémicas con el objetivo de poner a prueba y perfeccionar el modelo para luego poder aplicarlo en todo el país. En este artículo se describen los componentes clave que se usaron para crear un modelo de atención de la enfermedad de Chagas puesto en marcha recientemente en Colombia.

Em todo o mundo, cerca de 6 milhões de pessoas são infectadas pelo Trypanosoma cruzi, o patógeno causador da doença de Chagas. Nas Américas, esta infecção parasitária é responsável pela maior carga de anos de vida perdidos ajustados por incapacidade. Na Colômbia, estima-se que 437 mil pessoas são infectadas pelo T. cruzi, das quais 131 mil têm miocardiopatia. O custo anual para tratar os pacientes com doença de Chagas em estágio avançado chega a US$ 175.016.000. Embora o tratamento oportuno mirando o agente etiológico possa postergar significativamente, ou prevenir, a ocorrência de miocardiopatia, ao custo de apenas US$ 30 por paciente, menos de 1% dos portadores da doença de Chagas é tratado na Colômbia e em outros lugares. Representa uma perda de oportunidade de prolongar os anos de vida saudável e produtiva dos pacientes e de reduzir consideravelmente o ônus econômico ao sistema de saúde. Os principais entraves são a complexidade e a demora do processo de diagnóstico e tratamento, a falta de conhecimento sobre a doença por parte dos pacientes e dos profissionais da saúde e os obstáculos administrativos ao nível da atenção primária. Em 2015, interessados diretos de setores do governo, comunidade acadêmica, organizações não governamentais e associações de pacientes participaram de um seminário realizado na cidade de Bogotá em que discutiram como eliminar as barreiras ao diagnóstico e ao tratamento da doença de Chagas. Deste seminário nasceu um modelo para aumentar o acesso dos pacientes à atenção à saúde, com a preparação de um guia simplificado para o diagnóstico e o tratamento e a transição do atendimento dos serviços especializados aos serviços de atenção primária. Como parte de um projeto-piloto, a partir de 2016, o guia do paciente foi implantado em quatro comunidades endêmicas com o propósito de testar e aprimorar o modelo para que possa ser implantado em todo o país. O presente artigo descreve os principais componentes deste modelo de atenção para a doença de Chagas recém-implantado na Colômbia.

High-Resolution Molecular Typing of Trypanosoma cruzi in 2 Large Outbreaks of Acute Chagas Disease in Colombia.

Oral transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi has gained relevance because of its association with high morbidity and lethality rates. This transmission route is responsible for maintaining the infection of the parasite in sylvatic cycles, and human cases have been associated mainly with the consumption of food contaminated with triatomine feces or didelphid secretions. Several ecological changes allow the intrusion of sylvatic reservoirs and triatomines to the domestic environments with subsequent food contamination. Here, high-resolution molecular tools were used to detect and genotype T. cruzi across humans, reservoirs, and insect vectors in 2 acute outbreaks of presumptive oral transmission in eastern Colombia.

Risk factors associated with Chagas disease in pregnant women in Santander, a highly endemic Colombian area.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with Chagas disease in pregnant women in an endemic area of Santander, Colombia. METHODS: Cross-sectional study included 23 municipalities of Santander, Colombia. Serological IFAT and ELISA tests were undertaken to detect IgG anti- Trypanosoma cruzi. A questionnaire was conducted for assessing the risk factors of each participant. Newborns were evaluated at birth and followed up to 1 year of age to determine congenital infection. RESULTS: An overall prevalence of 3.2% (95% CI 2.4-4.2) among 1518 pregnant women was detected. Prevalences by provinces were as follows: Guanentina: 6.0% (95% CI 4.1-8.5), García Rovira: 2.9% (95% CI: 1.5-4.8) and Comunera: 0.4% (0.4-2.3). The main risk factors identified were age >32 years old (OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.1-3.9); currently having a thatched roof (OR: 11.8; CI95% 2.2-63.2) and a thatched roof during childhood (OR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.4-6.6); having below primary school education level (OR: 4.6; 95% CI: 2.2-9.5); and a history of a close contact with the vector (triatomine bugs) at least once during their lifetime (OR: 6.9; 95% CI: 3.7-12.9). No congenital cases were detected by parasitological or serological techniques. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women is a potential source of infection in this Colombian endemic area. The main risk factors associated with seropositivity were related to conditions favouring the contact with the vector. The results show that it is necessary to continue an active surveillance in order to offer diagnosis and treatment to mothers and their newborns in addition to screening to pregnant women from endemic areas.

Epidemiological findings, estimates of the instantaneous reproduction number, and control strategies of the first Mpox outbreak in Latin America.

BACKGROUND: The 2022-2023 period marked the largest global Mpox outbreak, with Latin America's situation notably underexplored. This study aims to estimate Mpox's instantaneous reproduction number (R(t)), analyze epidemiological trends, and map vaccination efforts in six Latin American countries. METHODS: Utilizing Pan American Health Organization Mpox surveillance data, we examined demographic characteristics, cumulative incidence rates, and epidemic curves, calculated R(t) with weekly sliding windows for each country, alongside a review of vaccination initiatives. RESULTS: From 2022 to 2023, 25,503 Mpox cases and 71 deaths were reported across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, with a significant majority (91.8%-98.5%) affecting men, with a mean age of 32-35 years. Maximum R(t) values varied across countries: Argentina (2.63; 0.85 to 5.39), Brazil (3.13; 2.61 to 3.69), Chile (2.91; 1.55 to 4.70), Colombia (3.15; 2.07 to 4.44), Mexico (2.28; 1.18 to 3.75), and Peru (2.84; 2.33 to 3.40). The epidemic's peak occurred between August and September 2022 with R(t) values subsequently dropping below 1. From November 2022, and as of February 2024, only Chile, Peru, and Brazil had initiated Mpox vaccination campaigns, with Colombia launching a Clinical Trial. CONCLUSION: The peak of the Mpox epidemic in the studied countries occurred before the commencement of vaccination programs. This trend may be then partly attributed to a combination of behavioral modifications in key affected communities and contact tracing local programs. Therefore, the proportion of the at-risk population that remains susceptible is still uncertain, highlighting the need for continued surveillance and evaluation of vaccination strategies.

The identification of two Trypanosoma cruzi I genotypes from domestic and sylvatic transmission cycles in Colombia based on a single polymerase chain reaction amplification of the spliced-leader intergenic region.

A single polymerase chain reaction (PCR) reaction targeting the spliced-leader intergenic region of Trypanosoma cruzi I was standardised by amplifying a 231 bp fragment in domestic (TcIDOM) strains or clones and 450 and 550 bp fragments in sylvatic strains or clones. This reaction was validated using 44 blind coded samples and 184 non-coded T. cruzi I clones isolated from sylvatic triatomines and the correspondence between the amplified fragments and their domestic or sylvatic origin was determined. Six of the nine strains isolated from acute cases suspected of oral infection had the sylvatic T. cruzi I profile. These results confirmed that the sylvatic T. cruzi I genotype is linked to cases of oral Chagas disease in Colombia. We therefore propose the use of this novel PCR reaction in strains or clones previously characterised as T. cruzi I to distinguish TcIDOMfrom sylvatic genotypes in studies of transmission dynamics, including the verification of population selection within hosts or detection of the frequency of mixed infections by both T. cruzi I genotypes in Colombia.

Correction: The epidemiology of Mayaro virus in the Americas: A systematic review and key parameter estimates for outbreak modelling.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009418.].

From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease.

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021-2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000-648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8-1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900-3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Contemporary cryptic sexuality in Trypanosoma cruzi.

Clonal propagation is considered to be the predominant mode of reproduction among many parasitic protozoa. However, this assumption may overlook unorthodox, infrequent or cryptic sexuality. Trypanosoma cruzi, which causes Chagas disease, is known to undergo non-Mendelian genetic exchange in the laboratory. In the field, evidence of extant genetic exchange is limited. In this study, we undertook intensive sampling of T. cruzi Discrete Typing Unit I in endemic eastern Colombia. Using Fluorescence-activated cell sorting, we generated 269 biological clones from 67 strains. Each clone was genotyped across 24 microsatellite loci. Subsequently, 100 representative clones were typed using 10 mitochondrial sequence targets (3.76 Kbp total). Clonal diversity among humans, reservoir hosts and vectors suggested complex patterns of superinfection and/or coinfection in oral and vector-borne Chagas disease cases. Clonal diversity between mother and foetus in a congenital case demonstrates that domestic TcI genotypes are infective in utero. Importantly, gross incongruence between nuclear and mitochondrial markers is strong evidence for widespread genetic exchange throughout the data set. Furthermore, a confirmed mosaic maxicircle sequence suggests intermolecular recombination between individuals as a further mechanism of genetic reassortment. Finally, robust dating based on mitochondrial DNA indicates that the emergence of a widespread domestic TcI clade that we now name TcI(DOM) (formerly TcIa/VEN(Dom)) occurred 23 000 ± 12 000 years ago and was followed by population expansion, broadly corresponding with the earliest human migration into the Americas.

Chagasic patients are able to respond against a viral antigen from influenza virus.

BACKGROUND: Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas' disease, is an obligate intracellular parasite which induces a CD8+ T cell immune response with secretion of cytokines and release of cytotoxic granules. Although an immune-suppressive effect of T. cruzi on the acute phase of the disease has been described, little is known about the capacity of CD8+ T cell from chronic chagasic patients to respond to a non-T. cruzi microbial antigen. METHODS: In the present paper, the frequency, phenotype and the functional activity of the CD8+ T cells specific from Flu-MP*, an influenza virus epitope, were determined in 13 chagasic patients and 5 healthy donors. RESULTS: The results show that Flu-MP* peptide specific CD8+ T cells were found with similar frequencies in both groups. In addition, Flu-MP* specific CD8+ T cells were distributed in the early or intermediate/late differentiation stages without showing enrichment of a specific sub-population. The mentioned Flu-MP* specific CD8+ T cells from chagasic patients were predominately TEM (CCR7- CD62L-), producing IL-2, IFNγ, CD107a/b and perforin, and did not present significant differences when compared with those from healthy donors. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the hypothesis that there is no CD8+ T cell nonspecific immune-suppression during chronic Chagas disease infection. Nonetheless, other viral antigens must be studied in order to confirm our findings.