Dynamic Prediction of Death in Patients With Tuberculous Meningitis Using Time-updated Glasgow Coma Scale and Plasma Sodium Measurements.

BACKGROUND: Pretreatment predictors of death from tuberculous meningitis (TBM) are well established, but whether outcome can be predicted more accurately after the start of treatment by updated clinical variables is unknown. Hence, we developed and validated models that dynamically predict mortality using time-updated Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and plasma sodium measurements, together with patient baseline characteristics. METHODS: We included 1048 adults from 4 TBM studies conducted in southern Vietnam from 2004 to 2016. We used a landmarking approach to predict death within 120 days after treatment initiation using time-updated data during the first 30 days of treatment. Separate models were built for patients with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to evaluate performance of the models at days 10, 20, and 30 of treatment to predict mortality by 60, 90, and 120 days. Our internal validation was corrected for overoptimism using bootstrap. We provide a web-based application that computes mortality risk within 120 days. RESULTS: Higher GCS indicated better prognosis in all patients. In HIV-infected patients, higher plasma sodium was uniformly associated with good prognosis, whereas in HIV-uninfected patients the association was heterogeneous over time. The bias-corrected AUC of the models ranged from 0.82 to 0.92 and 0.81 to 0.85 in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected individuals, respectively. The models outperformed the previously published baseline models. CONCLUSIONS: Time-updated GCS and plasma sodium measurements improved predictions based solely on information obtained at diagnosis. Our models may be used in practice to define those with poor prognosis during treatment.

A modified decontamination and storage method for sputum from patients with tuberculosis.

Background: Collecting and storing large number of sputum samples with a view to culturing these in the future requires an efficient initial handling method. We devised a modified sputum digestion and decontamination method that maximised storage capacity and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) recovery from culture while minimising laboratory workload and risk of contamination. Methods: We collected smear microscopy positive sputum samples from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). The sputum samples were split and processed using both the standard N-Acetyl-L-cysteine and sodium hydroxide (NALC-NaOH) method and our modified method before freezing and later culturing in BD BACTEC 960 Mycobacterium Growth Indicator Tubes (MGIT) system. We assessed the Time to Positivity (TPP) and Growth Unit (GU) data. Results: We selected 22 sputum samples to compare two digestion and decontamination methods. The samples that underwent the modified method had longer TTP (p < 0.05) but similar GU in comparison to standard method. Overall, 1/22 samples failed to grow in MGIT after being processed by the modified method. We then applied the modified method to 348 sputum samples with Rifampicin resistance detected by GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay, which were frozen for between 1-25 months. The overall MGIT positive, negative, and contamination rate was 90.5%, 7.8%, and 1.7%, respectively. There was no significant difference in MGIT result when samples were grouped by duration of storage or positive smear grade. Conclusions: Our modified method yielded acceptable M.tb recovery rate and low contamination risk while allowing us to collect and store thousands of sputum samples over a long period of time for future tests.