Phenotype and predictors of insulin independence in adults presenting with diabetic ketoacidosis: a prospective cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to describe the phenotype of adults presenting with a first episode of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in Cape Town, South Africa, and identify predictors of insulin independence at 12 and 60 months after presentation. METHODS: A prospective, descriptive cohort study of all individuals, 18 years or older, presenting for the first time with DKA to four public-sector hospitals of the Groote Schuur Academic Health Complex was performed. Clinical, biochemical and laboratory data including GAD antibody and C-peptide status were collected at baseline. Insulin was systematically weaned and stopped in individuals who achieved normoglycaemia within the months after DKA. Individuals were followed for 12 months and then annually until 5 years after initial presentation with ketoacidosis. RESULTS: Eighty-eight individuals newly diagnosed with diabetes when presenting with DKA were included and followed for 5 years. The mean ± SD age was 35±10 years and the median (IQR) BMI at diagnosis was 28.5 (23.3-33.4) kg/m2. Overall, 46% were insulin independent 12 months after diagnosis and 26% remained insulin independent 5 years after presentation. Forty-one participants (47%) tested negative for anti-GAD and anti-IA-2 antibodies and had C-peptide levels >0.3 nmol/l; in this group, 68% were insulin independent at 12 months and 37% at 5 years after diagnosis. The presence of acanthosis nigricans was strongly associated with insulin independence (OR 27.1 [95% CI 7.2, 102.2]; p<0.001); a positive antibody status was associated with a lower likelihood of insulin independence at 12 months (OR 0.10 [95% CI 0.03, 0.36]; p<0.001). On multivariable analysis only acanthosis (OR 11.5 [95% CI 2.5, 53.2]; p=0.004) was predictive of insulin independence 5 years after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The predominant phenotype of adults presenting with a first episode of DKA in Cape Town, South Africa, was that of ketosis-prone type 2 diabetes. These individuals presented with obesity, acanthosis nigricans, negative antibodies and normal C-peptide and could potentially be weaned off insulin at follow-up. Classic type 1 diabetes (lower weight, antibody positivity, low or unrecordable C-peptide levels and long-term insulin dependence) was less common. The simple clinical sign of acanthosis nigricans is a strong predictor of insulin independence at 12 months and 5 years after initial presentation.

Transfers between health facilities of people living with diabetes attending primary health care services in the Western Cape Province of South Africa: A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Transfers between health facilities of people living with HIV attending primary health care (PHC) including hospital to PHC facility, PHC facility to hospital and PHC facility to PHC facility transfers occur frequently, affect health service planning, and are associated with disengagement from care and viraemia. Data on transfers among people living with diabetes attending PHC, particularly transfers between PHC facilities, are few. We assessed the transfer incidence rate of people living with diabetes attending PHC, and the association between transfers between PHC facilities and subsequent HbA1c values. METHODS: We analysed data on HbA1c tests at public sector facilities in the Western Cape Province (2016-March 2020). Individuals with an HbA1c in 2016-2017 were followed-up for 27 months and included in the analysis if ≥18 years at first included HbA1c, ≥2 HbA1cs during follow-up and ≥1 HbA1c at a PHC facility. A visit interval was the duration between two consecutive HbA1cs. Successive HbA1cs at different facilities of any type indicated any transfer, and HbA1cs at different PHC facilities indicated a transfer between PHC facilities. Mixed effects logistic regression adjusted for sex, age, rural/urban facility attended at the start of the visit interval, disengagement (visit interval >14 months) and a hospital visit during follow-up assessed the association between transfers between PHC facilities and HbA1c >8%. RESULTS: Among 102,813 participants, 22.6% had ≥1 transfer of any type. Including repeat transfers, there were 29,994 transfers (14.4 transfers per 100 person-years, 95% confidence interval [CI] 14.3-14.6). A total of 6996 (30.1%) of those who transferred had a transfer between PHC facilities. Visit intervals with a transfer between PHC facilities were longer (349 days, interquartile range [IQR] 211-503) than those without any transfer (330 days, IQR 182-422). The adjusted relative odds of an HbA1c ≥8% after a transfer between PHC facilities versus no transfer were 1.20 (95% CI 1.05-1.37). CONCLUSION: The volume of transfers involving PHC facilities requires consideration when planning services. Individuals who transfer between PHC facilities require additional monitoring and support.

Routine health data describe adherence and persistence patterns for oral diabetes medication for a virtual cohort in the Khayelitsha sub-district of Cape Town, South Africa.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is managed with combined lifestyle modifications and antidiabetic drugs, but people on treatment often fail to reach glycaemic control. Adherence is important for achieving optimal glycaemic control, and management of diabetes with drugs is a lifelong process, so understanding adherence through analysis of longitudinal medications data is important. Using retrospective routine health data and metformin dispensing records as a proxy for medication use, we describe longitudinal persistence and adherence to oral diabetes medication in a virtual cohort of 10541 people with diabetes (PLWD) in Khayelitsha subdistrict, Cape Town. Adherence was measured in 120-day sliding windows over two years and used to estimate metformin adherence trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression identified factors influencing these trajectories. Analysis of pharmacy dispensing records showed varying medication refill patterns: while some PLWD refilled prescriptions consistently, others had treatment gaps with periods of non-persistence and multiple treatment episodes-from one to five per individual across two years. There was a general trend of decreasing adherence over time across all sliding windows in the two-year period, with only 25% of the study population achieved medication adherence (> = 80% adherence) after two years. Four adherence trajectories; 'low adherence gradual decline (A), 'high adherence rapid decline' (B), 'low adherence gradual increase (C) and 'adherent' (D) were identified. Only trajectory D represented participants who were adherent at treatment start and remained adherent after two years. Taking HIV antiretroviral treatment before or concurrently with diabetes treatment and taking metformin in combination with sulphonylurea and/or insulin were associated with the long-term adherence (trajectory D). Routine data shows real life medication implementation patterns which might not be seen under controlled study conditions. This study illustrates the utility of these data in describing longitudinal adherence patterns at both an individual and population level.