Wintertime Nitrous Oxide Emissions in the San Joaquin Valley of California Estimated from Aircraft Observations.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lived greenhouse gas that also destroys stratospheric ozone. N2O emissions are uncertain and characterized by high spatiotemporal variability, making individual observations difficult to upscale, especially in mixed land use source regions like the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) of California. Here, we calculate spatially integrated N2O emission rates using nocturnal and convective boundary-layer budgeting methods. We utilize vertical profile measurements from the NASA DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from COlumn and VERtically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) campaign, which took place January-February, 2013. For empirical constraints on N2O source identity, we analyze N2O enhancement ratios with methane, ammonia, carbon dioxide, and carbon monoxide separately in the nocturnal boundary layer, nocturnal residual layer, and convective boundary layer. We find that an established inventory (EDGAR v4.3.2) underestimates N2O emissions by at least a factor of 2.5, that wintertime emissions from animal agriculture are important to annual totals, and that there is evidence for higher N2O emissions during the daytime than at night.

Two Supervised Machine Learning Approaches for Wind Velocity Estimation Using Multi-Rotor Copter Attitude Measurements.

In this work we address the adequacy of two machine learning methods to tackle the problem of wind velocity estimation in the lowermost region of the atmosphere using on-board inertial drone data within an outdoor setting. We fed these data, and accompanying wind tower measurements, into a K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to predict future windspeeds, by exploiting the stabilization response of two hovering drones in a wind field. Of the two approaches, we found that LSTM proved to be the most capable supervised learning model during more capricious wind conditions, and made competent windspeed predictions with an average root mean square error of 0.61 m·s-1 averaged across two drones, when trained on at least 20 min of flight data. During calmer conditions, a linear regression model demonstrated acceptable performance, but under more variable wind regimes the LSTM performed considerably better than the linear model, and generally comparable to more sophisticated methods. Our approach departs from other multi-rotor-based windspeed estimation schemes by circumventing the use of complex and specific dynamic models, to instead directly learn the relationship between drone attitude and fluctuating windspeeds. This exhibits utility in a range of otherwise prohibitive environments, like mountainous terrain or off-shore sites.

Wind Profiling in the Lower Atmosphere from Wind-Induced Perturbations to Multirotor UAS.

We present a model-based approach to estimate the vertical profile of horizontal wind velocity components using motion perturbations of a multirotor unmanned aircraft system (UAS) in both hovering and steady ascending flight. The state estimation framework employed for wind estimation was adapted to a set of closed-loop rigid body models identified for an off-the-shelf quadrotor. The quadrotor models used for wind estimation were characterized for hovering and steady ascending flight conditions ranging between 0 and 2 m/s. The closed-loop models were obtained using system identification algorithms to determine model structures and estimate model parameters. The wind measurement method was validated experimentally above the Virginia Tech Kentland Experimental Aircraft Systems Laboratory by comparing quadrotor and independent sensor measurements from a sonic anemometer and two SoDAR instruments. Comparison results demonstrated quadrotor wind estimation in close agreement with the independent wind velocity measurements. However, horizontal wind velocity profiles were difficult to validate using time-synchronized SoDAR measurements. Analysis of the noise intensity and signal-to-noise ratio of the SoDARs proved that close-proximity quadrotor operations can corrupt wind measurement from SoDARs, which has not previously been reported.

The role of vegetation-microclimate feedback in promoting shrub encroachment in the northern Chihuahuan desert.

Many arid and semi-arid landscapes around the world are affected by a shift from grassland to shrubland vegetation, presumably induced by climate warming, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and/or changing land use. This major change in vegetation cover is likely sustained by positive feedbacks with the physical environment. Recent research has focused on a feedback with microclimate, whereby cold intolerant shrubs increase the minimum nocturnal temperatures in their surroundings. Despite the rich literature on the impact of land cover change on local climate conditions, changes in microclimate resulting from shrub expansion into desert grasslands have remained poorly investigated. It is unclear to what extent such a feedback can affect the maximum extent of shrub expansion and the configuration of a stable encroachment front. Here, we focus on the case of the northern Chihuahuan desert, where creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) has been replacing grasslands over the past 100-150 years. We use a process-based coupled atmosphere-vegetation model to investigate the role of this feedback in sustaining shrub encroachment in the region. Simulations indicate that the feedback allows juvenile shrubs to establish in the grassland during average years and, once established, reduce their vulnerability to freeze-induced mortality by creating a warmer microclimate. Such a feedback is crucial in extreme cold winters as it may reduce shrub mortality. We identify the existence of a critical zone in the surroundings of the encroachment front, in which vegetation dynamics are bistable: in this zone, vegetation can be stable both as grassland and as shrubland. The existence of these alternative stable states explains why in most cases the shift from grass to shrub cover is found to be abrupt and often difficult to revert.

Coupled Air Quality and Boundary-Layer Meteorology in Western U.S. Basins during Winter: Design and Rationale for a Comprehensive Study.

Wintertime episodes of high aerosol concentrations occur frequently in urban and agricultural basins and valleys worldwide. These episodes often arise following development of persistent cold-air pools (PCAPs) that limit mixing and modify chemistry. While field campaigns targeting either basin meteorology or wintertime pollution chemistry have been conducted, coupling between interconnected chemical and meteorological processes remains an insufficiently studied research area. Gaps in understanding the coupled chemical-meteorological interactions that drive high pollution events make identification of the most effective air-basin specific emission control strategies challenging. To address this, a September 2019 workshop occurred with the goal of planning a future research campaign to investigate air quality in Western U.S. basins. Approximately 120 people participated, representing 50 institutions and 5 countries. Workshop participants outlined the rationale and design for a comprehensive wintertime study that would couple atmospheric chemistry and boundary-layer and complex-terrain meteorology within western U.S. basins. Participants concluded the study should focus on two regions with contrasting aerosol chemistry: three populated valleys within Utah (Salt Lake, Utah, and Cache Valleys) and the San Joaquin Valley in California. This paper describes the scientific rationale for a campaign that will acquire chemical and meteorological datasets using airborne platforms with extensive range, coupled to surface-based measurements focusing on sampling within the near-surface boundary layer, and transport and mixing processes within this layer, with high vertical resolution at a number of representative sites. No prior wintertime basin-focused campaign has provided the breadth of observations necessary to characterize the meteorological-chemical linkages outlined here, nor to validate complex processes within coupled atmosphere-chemistry models.

Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high-elevation endemic salamander.

A frequent assumption in ecology is that biotic interactions are more important than abiotic factors in determining lower elevational range limits (i.e., the "warm edge" of a species distribution). However, for species with narrow environmental tolerances, theory suggests the presence of a strong environmental gradient can lead to persistence, even in the presence of competition. The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors is rarely considered together, although understanding when one exerts a dominant influence on controlling range limits may be crucial to predicting extinction risk under future climate conditions. We sampled multiple transects spanning the elevational range limit of Plethodon shenandoah and site and climate covariates were recorded. A two-species conditional occupancy model, accommodating heterogeneity in detection probability, was used to relate variation in occupancy with environmental and habitat conditions. Regional climate data were combined with datalogger observations to estimate the cloud base heights and to project future climate change impacts on cloud elevations across the survey area. By simultaneously accounting for species' interactions and habitat variables, we find that elevation, not competition, is strongly correlated with the lower elevation range boundary, which had been presumed to be restricted mainly as a result of competitive interactions with a congener. Because the lower elevational range limit is sensitive to climate variables, projected climate change across its high-elevation habitats will directly affect the species' distribution. Testing assumptions of factors that set species range limits should use models which accommodate detection biases.

A Mesoscale Model-Based Climatography of Nocturnal Boundary-Layer Characteristics over the Complex Terrain of North-Western Utah.

Nocturnal boundary-layer phenomena in regions of complex topography are extremely diverse and respond to a multiplicity of forcing factors, acting primarily at the mesoscale and microscale. The interaction between different physical processes, e.g., drainage promoted by near-surface cooling and ambient flow over topography in a statically stable environment, may give rise to special flow patterns, uncommon over flat terrain. Here we present a climatography of boundary-layer flows, based on a 2-year archive of simulations from a high-resolution operational mesoscale weather modelling system, 4DWX. The geographical context is Dugway Proving Ground, in north-western Utah, USA, target area of the field campaigns of the MATERHORN (Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations Program) project. The comparison between model fields and available observations in 2012-2014 shows that the 4DWX model system provides a realistic representation of wind speed and direction in the area, at least in an average sense. Regions displaying strong spatial gradients in the field variables, thought to be responsible for enhanced nocturnal mixing, are typically located in transition areas from mountain sidewalls to adjacent plains. A key dynamical process in this respect is the separation of dynamically accelerated downslope flows from the surface.