Directionality of HLA-DP permissive mismatches improves risk prediction in HCT for acute leukemia and MDS.

ABSTRACT: HLA-DP permissive mismatches can be assigned a direction according to their immunopeptidome divergence across core and noncore subsets. Noncore permissive graft-versus-host mismatches show significantly reduced risks of relapse without increased nonrelapse mortality compared with allele-matched pairs.

Does IPSS-R downstaging before transplantation improve the prognosis of patients with myelodysplastic neoplasms?

ABSTRACT: In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), higher revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) scores at transplant are associated with worse transplant outcome and, thus, lowering IPSS-R scores by therapeutic intervention before transplantation may seem beneficial. However, there is no evidence, to date, to support this approach. In a retrospective analysis, a total of 1482 patients with MDS with sufficient data to calculate IPSS-R score at diagnosis and at time of transplantation were selected from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation transplant registry and analyzed for transplant outcome in a multivariable Cox model including IPSS-R score at diagnosis, treatment intervention, change in IPSS-R score before transplant, and several patient and transplant variables. Transplant outcome was unaffected by IPSS-R score change in untreated patients and moderately superior in patients treated with chemotherapy with improved IPSS-R score at transplant. Improved IPSS-R score after hypomethylating agents (HMAs) or other therapies showed no beneficial effect. However, when IPSS-R score progressed after chemotherapy, HMAs, or other therapies, transplant outcome was worse than without any prior treatment. Similar results were found when reduction or increase in bone marrow (BM) blasts between diagnosis and transplantation was considered. The results show a limited benefit of IPSS-R score downstaging or reduction of BM blasts after chemotherapy and no benefit for HMAs or other treatments and thus question the role of prior therapy in patients with MDS scheduled for transplantation. The model-based survival estimates should help inform decision-making for both doctors and patients.

Haplotype reconstruction for genetically complex regions with ambiguous genotype calls: Illustration by the KIR gene region.

Advances in DNA sequencing technologies have enabled genotyping of complex genetic regions exhibiting copy number variation and high allelic diversity, yet it is impossible to derive exact genotypes in all cases, often resulting in ambiguous genotype calls, that is, partially missing data. An example of such a gene region is the killer-cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) genes. These genes are of special interest in the context of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. For such complex gene regions, current haplotype reconstruction methods are not feasible as they cannot cope with the complexity of the data. We present an expectation-maximization (EM)-algorithm to estimate haplotype frequencies (HTFs) which deals with the missing data components, and takes into account linkage disequilibrium (LD) between genes. To cope with the exponential increase in the number of haplotypes as genes are added, we add three components to a standard EM-algorithm implementation. First, reconstruction is performed iteratively, adding one gene at a time. Second, after each step, haplotypes with frequencies below a threshold are collapsed in a rare haplotype group. Third, the HTF of the rare haplotype group is profiled in subsequent iterations to improve estimates. A simulation study evaluates the effect of combining information of multiple genes on the estimates of these frequencies. We show that estimated HTFs are approximately unbiased. Our simulation study shows that the EM-algorithm is able to combine information from multiple genes when LD is high, whereas increased ambiguity levels increase bias. Linear regression models based on this EM, show that a large number of haplotypes can be problematic for unbiased effect size estimation and that models need to be sparse. In a real data analysis of KIR genotypes, we compare HTFs to those obtained in an independent study. Our new EM-algorithm-based method is the first to account for the full genetic architecture of complex gene regions, such as the KIR gene region. This algorithm can handle the numerous observed ambiguities, and allows for the collapsing of haplotypes to perform implicit dimension reduction. Combining information from multiple genes improves haplotype reconstruction.

Role of allogeneic transplantation in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia: an international collaborative analysis.

To determine the survival benefit of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) in chronic myelomonocytic leukemias (CMML), we assembled a retrospective cohort of CMML patients 18-70 years old diagnosed between 2000 and 2014 from an international CMML dataset (n = 730) and the EBMT registry (n = 384). The prognostic impact of allo-HCT was analyzed through univariable and multivariable time-dependent models and with a multistate model, accounting for age, sex, CMML prognostic scoring system (low or intermediate-1 grouped as lower-risk, intermediate-2 or high as higher-risk) at diagnosis, and AML transformation. In univariable analysis, lower-risk CMMLs had a 5-year overall survival (OS) of 20% with allo-HCT vs 42% without allo-HCT (P < .001). In higher-risk patients, 5-year OS was 27% with allo-HCT vs 15% without allo-HCT (P = .13). With multistate models, performing allo-HCT before AML transformation reduced OS in patients with lower-risk CMML, and a survival benefit was predicted for men with higher-risk CMML. In a multivariable analysis of lower-risk patients, performing allo-HCT before transformation to AML significantly increased the risk of death within 2 years of transplantation (hazard ratio [HR], 3.19; P < .001), with no significant change in long-term survival beyond this time point (HR, 0.98; P = .92). In higher-risk patients, allo-HCT significantly increased the risk of death in the first 2 years after transplant (HR 1.46; P = .01) but not beyond (HR, 0.60; P = .09). Performing allo-HCT before AML transformation decreases life expectancy in lower-risk patients but may be considered in higher-risk patients.

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients aged 60-79 years in Germany (1998-2018): a registry study.

Incidences of diseases treated with transplantation frequently peak at higher age. The contribution of age to total risk of transplantation has not been estimated amidst an aging society. We compare outcomes of 1,547 patients aged 70-79 years and 9,422 patients aged 60-69 years transplanted 1998-2018 for myeloid, lymphoid and further neoplasia in Germany. To quantify the contribution of population mortality to survival, we derive excess mortality based on a sex-, year- and agematched German population in a multistate model that incorporates relapse and graft-versus-host-disease (GvHD). Overall survival, relapse-free survival (RFS) and GvHD-free-relapse-free survival (GRFS) is inferior in patients aged 70-79 years, compared to patients aged 60-69 years, with 36% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 34-39%) versus 43% (41-44%), 32% (30- 35%) versus 36% (35-37%) and 23% (21-26%) versus 27% (26-28%) three years post-transplant (P<0.001). Cumulative incidences of relapse at three years are 27% (25-30%) for patients aged 70-79 versus 29% (29-30%) (60-69 years) (P=0.71), yet the difference in non-relapse mortality (NRM) (40% [38-43%] vs. 35% [34-36%] in patients aged 70-79 vs. 60-69 years) (P<0.001) translates into survival differences. Median OS of patients surviving >1 year relapse-free is 6.7 (median, 95% CI: 4.5-9.4, 70-79 years) versus 9 (8.4-10.1, 60-69 years) years since landmark. Three years after RFS of one year, excess NRM is 14% (95% CI: 12-18%) in patients aged 70-79 versus 12% [11-13%] in patients aged 60-69, while population NRM is 7% (6-7%) versus 3% (3-3%). Mortality for reasons other than relapse, GvHD, or age is as high as 27% (24-29%) and 22% (22-23%) four years after transplantation. In conclusion, survival amongst older patients is adequate after allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

Outcomes of CMML patients undergoing allo-HCT are significantly worse compared to MDS-a study of the CMWP of the EBMT.

Although CMML since long has been separated from MDS, many studies continue to evaluate the outcomes of both diseases after hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) together. Data evaluating outcomes of a large CMML cohort after allo-HCT compared to MDS are limited. We aim to compare outcomes of CMML to MDS patients who underwent allo-HCT between 2010 and 2018. Patients ≥18 years with CMML and MDS undergoing allo-HCT reported to the EBMT registry were analyzed. Progression to AML before allo-HCT was an exclusion criterion. Overall survival (OS), progression/relapse-free survival (PFS), relapse incidence (including progression) (REL), and non-relapse mortality (NRM) were evaluated in univariable and multivariable (MVA) Cox proportional hazard models including interaction terms between disease and confounders. In total, 10832 patients who underwent allo-HCT were included in the study, there were a total of 1466 CMML, and 9366 MDS. The median age at time of allo-HCT in CMML (median 60.5, IQR 54.3-65.2 years) was significantly higher than in the MDS cohort (median 58.8, IQR 50.2-64.5 years; p < .001). A significantly higher percentage of CMML patients were male (69.4%) compared to MDS (61.2%; p < .001). There were no clinically meaningful differences in the distribution of Karnofsky score, Sorror HCT-CI score at allo-HCT, and donor type, between the CMML and MDS patients. RIC platforms were utilized in 63.9% of CMML allo-HCT, and in 61.4% of MDS patients (p = .08). In univariable analyses, we found that OS, PFS, and REL were significantly worse in CMML when compared with MDS (all p < .0001), whereas no significant difference was observed in NRM (p = .77). In multivariable analyses, the HR comparing MDS versus CMML for OS was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74-0.88, p < .001), PFS 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.82, p < .001), relapse 0.66 (95% CI 0.59-0.74, p < .001), and NRM 0.87 (95% CI 0.78-0.98, p = .02), respectively. The association between baseline variables and outcome was found to be similar in MDS and CMML (all interaction p > .05) except for a decreasing trend over time of the risk of relapse in CMML (HR allo-HCT per year later 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.98), whereas no such trend was observed in MDS (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.98-1.02). The poor outcome observed for CMML could be related to variables not measured in this study or to factors inherent to the disease itself. This study demonstrates that outcomes of CMML patients after allo-HCT are significantly worse compared to MDS. The results of this study may contribute to future recommendations for allo-HCT in CMML patients.

Impact of comorbidities and body mass index on the outcomes of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation in myelofibrosis: A study on behalf of the Chronic Malignancies Working Party of EBMT.

Investigating the evaluation of eligibility for transplant in myelofibrosis (MF): The role of HCT-CI and BMI. HCT-CI emerges as a key prognostic factor, while BMI shows limited impact. This study expands insights for better clinical decision-making in MF allo-HCT.

Outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant in patients diagnosed with blast phase of myeloproliferative neoplasms: A retrospective study from the Chronic Malignancies Working Party of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (allo-HCT) provides the only potential route to long-term remission in patients diagnosed with blast phase transformation of myeloproliferative neoplasm (BP-MPN). We report on a large, retrospective European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation registry-based study of BP-MPN patients undergoing allo-HCT. BP-MPN patients undergoing first allo-HCT between 2005 and 2019 were included. A total of 663 patients were included. With a median follow-up of 62 months, the estimated 3-year overall survival (OS) was 36% (95% confidence interval [CI], 32-36). Factors associated with lower OS were Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS) <90 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.65, p < .001) and active disease at allo-HCT (HR 1.45, p < .001), whereas patients undergoing allo-HCT more recently associated with a higher OS (HR 0.96, p = .008). In a selected patient's population, the 3-year OS of patients undergoing allo-HCT in complete response (CR) and with a KPS ≥90 was 60%. KPS < 90 (HR 1.4, p = .001) and active disease (HR 1.44, p = .0004) were associated with a lower progression-free survival (PFS). Conversely, most recent allo-HCT associated with a higher PFS (HR 0.96, p = .008). Active disease at allo-HCT (HR 1.34, p = .03) was associated with a higher cumulative incidence of relapse (RI) and allo-HCT in earlier calendar years (HR 0.96, p = .02) associated with a lower RI. Last, KPS < 90 (HR 1.91, p < .001), active disease (HR 1.74, p = .003) and allo-HCT from mismatched related donors were associated with a higher non-relapse mortality (HR 2.66, p = .003). In this large series of BP-MPN patients, about one third were alive at 3 years after transplantation. Patients undergoing allo-HCT in the more recent era, with a KPS ≥90 and in CR at transplant had a better prognosis.

Estimating distribution of length of stay in a multi-state model conditional on the pathway, with an application to patients hospitalised with Covid-19.

Multi-state models are used to describe how individuals transition through different states over time. The distribution of the time spent in different states, referred to as 'length of stay', is often of interest. Methods for estimating expected length of stay in a given state are well established. The focus of this paper is on the distribution of the time spent in different states conditional on the complete pathway taken through the states, which we call 'conditional length of stay'. This work is motivated by questions about length of stay in hospital wards and intensive care units among patients hospitalised due to Covid-19. Conditional length of stay estimates are useful as a way of summarising individuals' transitions through the multi-state model, and also as inputs to mathematical models used in planning hospital capacity requirements. We describe non-parametric methods for estimating conditional length of stay distributions in a multi-state model in the presence of censoring, including conditional expected length of stay (CELOS). Methods are described for an illness-death model and then for the more complex motivating example. The methods are assessed using a simulation study and shown to give unbiased estimates of CELOS, whereas naive estimates of CELOS based on empirical averages are biased in the presence of censoring. The methods are applied to estimate conditional length of stay distributions for individuals hospitalised due to Covid-19 in the UK, using data on 42,980 individuals hospitalised from March to July 2020 from the COVID19 Clinical Information Network.

Discontinuation of anti-PD-1 monotherapy in advanced melanoma-Outcomes of daily clinical practice.

There is no consensus on the optimal treatment duration of anti-PD-1 for advanced melanoma. The aim of our study was to gain insight into the outcomes of anti-PD-1 discontinuation, the association of treatment duration with progression and anti-PD-1 re-treatment in relapsing patients. Analyses were performed on advanced melanoma patients in the Netherlands who discontinued first-line anti-PD-1 monotherapy in the absence of progressive disease (n = 324). Survival was estimated after anti-PD-1 discontinuation and with a Cox model the association of treatment duration with progression was assessed. At the time of anti-PD-1 discontinuation, 90 (28%) patients had a complete response (CR), 190 (59%) a partial response (PR) and 44 (14%) stable disease (SD). Median treatment duration for patients with CR, PR and SD was 11.2, 11.5 and 7.2 months, respectively. The 24-month progression-free survival and overall survival probabilities for patients with a CR, PR and SD were, respectively, 64% and 88%, 53% and 82%, 31% and 64%. Survival outcomes of patients with a PR and CR were similar when anti-PD-1 discontinuation was not due to adverse events. Having a PR at anti-PD-1 discontinuation and longer time to first response were associated with progression [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.81 (95% confidence interval, CI = 1.11-2.97) and HR = 1.10 (95% CI = 1.02-1.19; per month increase)]. In 17 of the 27 anti-PD-1 re-treated patients (63%), a response was observed. Advanced melanoma patients can have durable remissions after (elective) anti-PD-1 discontinuation.

External validation of models for KIR2DS1/KIR3DL1-informed selection of hematopoietic cell donors fails.

Several studies suggest that harnessing natural killer (NK) cell reactivity mediated through killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) could reduce the risk of relapse after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. Based on one promising model, information on KIR2DS1 and KIR3DL1 and their cognate ligands can be used to classify donors as KIR-advantageous or KIR-disadvantageous. This study was aimed at externally validating this model in unrelated donor hematopoietic cell transplantation. The impact of the predictor on overall survival (OS) and relapse incidence was tested in a Cox regression model adjusted for patient age, a modified disease risk index, Karnofsky performance status, donor age, HLA match, sex match, cytomegalovirus match, conditioning intensity, type of T-cell depletion, and graft type. Data from 2222 patients with acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome were analyzed. KIR genes were typed by using high-resolution amplicon-based next-generation sequencing. In univariable analyses and subgroup analyses, OS and the cumulative incidence of relapse of patients with a KIR-advantageous donor were comparable to patients with a KIR-disadvantageous donor. The adjusted hazard ratio from the multivariable Cox regression model was 0.99 (Wald test, P = .93) for OS and 1.04 (Wald test, P = .78) for relapse incidence. We also tested the impact of activating donor KIR2DS1 and inhibition by KIR3DL1 separately but found no significant impact on OS and the risk of relapse. Thus, our study shows that the proposed model does not universally predict NK-mediated disease control. Deeper knowledge of NK-mediated alloreactivity is necessary to predict its contribution to graft-versus-leukemia reactions and to eventually use KIR genotype information for donor selection.

Improved outcome of patients with graft-versus-host disease after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for hematologic malignancies over time: an EBMT mega-file study.

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGvHD) remains a major threat to successful outcome following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation though advances in prophylaxis and supportive care have been made. The aim of this study is to test whether the incidence and mortality of aGvHD have decreased over time. 102,557 patients with a median age of 47.6 years and with malignancies after first allogeneic sibling or unrelated donor (URD) transplant were studied in the following periods: 1990-1995, 1996-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010 and 2011-2015. Findings: 100-day incidences of aGvHD grades II-IV decreased from 40% to 38%, 32%, 29% and 28%, respectively, over calendar time (P<0.001). In multivariate analysis URD, not in complete remission (CR) at transplant or untreated, and female donor for male recipient were factors associated with increased risk whereas the use of ATG/alemtuzumab decreased aGvHD incidence. Median follow-up was 214, 169, 127, 81 and 30 months, respectively, for the periods analyzed. Three-year-survival after aGvHD grades II-IV increased significantly from 38% to 40%, 43%, 44%, and 45%, respectively. In multivariate analysis URD, not in CR at transplant, peripheral blood as stem cell source, female donor for male recipient, and the use of ATG/alemtuzumab were associated with increased mortality whereas reduced-intensity conditioning was linked to lower mortality. Mortality increased with increasing patient age but decreased in the recent cohorts. Our analysis demonstrates that aGvHD has decreased over recent decades and also that the survival rates of patients affected with aGvHD has improved.

Real-world outcomes of advanced melanoma patients not represented in phase III trials.

The aim was to provide evidence on systemically treated patients with advanced melanoma not represented in phase III trials to support clinical decision-making. Analysis were performed on advanced melanoma patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2017 in the Netherlands, treated with immune- or targeted therapy, who met ≥1 trial exclusion criteria. These criteria were derived from the KEYNOTE-006 and CHECKMATE-067/-066 phase III trials. Prognostic importance of factors associated with overall survival (OS) was assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox models, predicted OS probabilities of prognostic subgroups and a conditional inference survival tree (CIST). A nationwide population-based registry was used as data source. Of 2536 systemically treated patients with advanced melanoma, 1004 (40%) patients were ineligible for phase IIII trials. Ineligible patients had a poorer median OS (mOS) compared to eligible patients (8.8 vs 23 months). Eligibility criteria strongly associated with OS in systemically treated ineligible patients were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Score (ECOG PS) ≥2, brain metastases (BM) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) of >500 U/L. Patients with ECOG PS of ≥2 with or without symptomatic BM had a predicted mOS of 6.5 and 11.3 months and a 3-year survival probability of 9.3% and 23.6%, respectively. The CIST showed the strongest prognostic covariate for survival was LDH, followed by ECOG PS. The prognosis of patients with LDH of >500 U/L is poor, but long-term survival is possible. The prognosis of ineligible patients with advanced melanoma in real-world was very heterogeneous and highly dependent on LDH value, ECOG PS and symptomatic BM.

MYD88 mutations identify a molecular subgroup of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with an unfavorable prognosis.

The 2016 World Health Organization classification defines diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) subtypes based on Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection and oncogenic rearrangements of MYC/BCL2/BCL6 as drivers of lymphomagenesis. A subset of DLBCL, however, is characterized by activating mutations in MYD88/CD79B We investigated whether MYD88/CD79B mutations could improve the classification and prognostication of DLBCL. In 250 primary DLBCL, MYD88/CD79B mutations were identified by allele-specific polymerase chain reaction or next-generation-sequencing, MYC/BCL2/BCL6 rearrangements were analyzed by fluorescence in situ hybridization, and EBV was studied by EBV-encoded RNA in situ hybridization. Associations of molecular features with clinicopathologic characteristics, outcome, and prognosis according to the International Prognostic Index (IPI) were investigated. MYD88 and CD79B mutations were identified in 29.6% and 12.3%, MYC, BCL2, and BCL6 rearrangements in 10.6%, 13.6%, and 20.3%, and EBV in 11.7% of DLBCL, respectively. Prominent mutual exclusivity between EBV positivity, rearrangements, and MYD88/CD79B mutations established the value of molecular markers for the recognition of biologically distinct DLBCL subtypes. MYD88-mutated DLBCL had a significantly inferior 5-year overall survival than wild-type MYD88 DLBCL (log-rank; P=0.019). DLBCL without any of the studied aberrations had superior overall survival compared to cases carrying ≥1 aberrancy (log-rank; P=0.010). MYD88 mutations retained their adverse prognostic impact upon adjustment for other genetic and clinical variables by multivariable analysis and improved the prognostic performance of the IPI. This study demonstrates the clinical utility of defining MYD88-mutated DLBCL as a distinct molecular subtype with adverse prognosis. Our data call for sequence analysis of MYD88 in routine diagnostics of DLBCL to optimize classification and prognostication, and to guide the development of improved treatment strategies.

Construction and assessment of prediction rules for binary outcome in the presence of missing predictor data using multiple imputation and cross-validation: Methodological approach and data-based evaluation.

We investigate calibration and assessment of predictive rules when missing values are present in the predictors. Our paper has two key objectives. The first is to investigate how the calibration of the prediction rule can be combined with use of multiple imputation to account for missing predictor observations. The second objective is to propose such methods that can be implemented with current multiple imputation software, while allowing for unbiased predictive assessment through validation on new observations for which outcome is not yet available. We commence with a review of the methodological foundations of multiple imputation as a model estimation approach as opposed to a purely algorithmic description. We specifically contrast application of multiple imputation for parameter (effect) estimation with predictive calibration. Based on this review, two approaches are formulated, of which the second utilizes application of the classical Rubin's rules for parameter estimation, while the first approach averages probabilities from models fitted on single imputations to directly approximate the predictive density for future observations. We present implementations using current software that allow for validation and estimation of performance measures by cross-validation, as well as imputation of missing data in predictors on the future data where outcome is missing by definition. To simplify, we restrict discussion to binary outcome and logistic regression throughout. Method performance is verified through application on two real data sets. Accuracy (Brier score) and variance of predicted probabilities are investigated. Results show substantial reductions in variation of calibrated probabilities when using the first approach.

Family Mismatched Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation for Myelofibrosis: Report from the Chronic Malignancies Working Party of European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

This analysis included 56 myelofibrosis (MF) patients transplanted from family mismatched donor between 2009 and 2015 enrolled in the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation database. The median age was 57years (range, 38 to 72); 75% had primary MF and 25% had secondary MF. JAK2 V617F was mutated in 61%. Donors were HLA mismatched at 2 or more loci. Stem cells were sourced from bone marrow in 66% and peripheral blood in 34%. The median CD34+ cell dose was 4.8 × 106/kg (range, 1.7 to 22.9; n = 43). Conditioning was predominantly myeloablative in 70% and reduced intensity in the remainder. Regimens were heterogeneous with thiotepa, busulfan, fludarabine, and post-transplant cyclophosphamide used in 59%. The incidence of neutrophil engraftment by 28days was 82% (range, 70% to 93%), at a median of 21days (range, 19 to 23). At 2years the cumulative incidence of primary graft failure was 9% (95% CI 1% to 16%) and secondary graft failure was 13% (95% CI 4% to 22%). The cumulative incidence of acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) grades II to IV and III to IV was 28% (95% CI 16% to 40%) and 9% (95% CI 2% to 17%) at 100days. The cumulative incidence of chronic GVHD at 1 year was 45% (95% CI 32% to 58%), but the cumulative incidence of death without chronic GVHD by 1 year was 20% (95% CI 10% to 31%). With a median follow-up of 32 months, the 1- and 2-year overall survival was 61% (95% CI 48% to 74%) and 56% (95% CI 41% to 70%), respectively. The 1- and 2- year progression-free survival was 58% (95% CI 45% to 71%) and 43% (95% CI 28% to 58%), respectively, with a 2-year cumulative incidence of relapse of 19% (95% CI 7% to 31%). The 2-year nonrelapse mortality was 38% (95% CI 24% to 51%). This retrospective study of MF allo-SCT using family mismatched donors demonstrated feasibility of the approach, timely neutrophil engraftment in over 80% of cases, and acceptable overall and progression-free survival rates with relapse rates not dissimilar to the unrelated donor setting. However, strategies to minimize the risk of graft failure and the relatively high nonrelapse mortality need to be used, ideally in a multicenter prospective fashion.

Comparison of Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System and MYelofibrosis SECondary to PV and ET Prognostic Model for Prediction of Outcome in Polycythemia Vera and Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation.

We aimed to validate the MYelofibrosis SECondary to PV and ET prognostic model (MYSEC-PM) in 159 patients with myelofibrosis secondary to polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation registry undergoing transplantation from matched siblings or unrelated donors. Furthermore, we aimed to test its prognostic performance in comparison with the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS). Score performance was analyzed using the concordance index (C): the probability that a patient who experienced an event had a higher risk score than a patient who did not (C > .5 suggesting predictive ability). Median follow-up of the total cohort was 41 months (range, 34 to 54), 45 months in post-PV and 38 months in post-ET myelofibrosis. Survival at 1, 2, and 4 years was 70% (95% CI, 63% to 77%), 61% (95% CI, 53% to 69%), and 52% (95% CI, 43% to 61%) for the total cohort; 70% (95% CI, 59% to 80%), 61% (95% CI, 49% to 73%), and 51% (95% CI, 38% to 64%) for post-PV; and 71% (95% CI, 61% to 81%), 61% (95% CI, 50% to 72%), and 54% (95% CI, 42% to 66%) for post-ET myelofibrosis (P = .78). Overall, the DIPSS was not significantly predictive of outcome (P = .28). With respect to the MYSEC-PM, overall survival at 4 years was 69% for the low-risk, 55% for the intermediate 1-risk, 47% for the intermediate 2-risk, and 22% (0% to 45%) for the high-risk groups. The prognostic model was predictive of survival overall (P = .05), whereas groups with intermediate 2 and high risk showed no significant difference (P = .44). Assessment of prognostic utility yielded a C-index of .575 (95% CI, .502 to .648) for the DIPSS, whereas assessment of the MYSEC-PM resulted in a C-statistics of .636 (95% CI, .563 to .708), indicating improvement in prediction of post-transplant survival using the new MYSEC-PM. In addition, transplantations from an unrelated donor in comparison with an HLA-identical sibling showed worse outcome (P = .04), and transplant recipients seropositive for cytomegalovirus in comparison with seronegative recipients (P = .01) showed worse survival. In conclusion, incorporating transplant-specific and clinical and mutational information together with the MYSEC-PM may enhance risk stratification.

Impact of primary disease on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation for transformed secondary acute leukaemia.

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) and chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia (CMML) can progress to secondary acute myeloid leukaemia (sAML). We compared the outcome of 4214 sAML patients who received allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) from an unrelated (62%) or human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-identical sibling donor (38%) according the underlying disease: MDS (n = 3541), CMML (n = 251) or MPN (n = 422). After a median follow up of 46·5 months, the estimated 3-year progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for the entire group was 36% (34-37%) and 41% (40-43%), respectively. The cumulative incidence of relapse and non-relapse mortality (NRM) was 37% (35-39%) and 27% (26-29%), respectively. In a multivariable analysis for OS, besides age (P < 0·001), unrelated donor (P = 0·011), cytomegalovirus ± constellation (P = 0·007), Karnofsky index ≤ 80 (P < 0·001), remission status (P < 0·001), peripheral blood as stem cell source (P = 0·009), sAML from MPN (P = 0·003) remained a significant factor in comparison to sAML from MDS, while worse outcome of sAML from CMML did not reach statistical significance (P = 0·06). This large registry study demonstrates a major impact of the underlying disease on outcome of sAML after allo-HSCT.

Long-term outcome after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for myelofibrosis.

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant remains the only curative treatment for myelofibrosis. Most post-transplantation events occur during the first two years and hence we aimed to analyze the outcome of 2-year disease-free survivors. A total of 1055 patients with myelofibrosis transplanted between 1995 and 2014 and registered in the registry of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation were included. Survival was compared to the matched general population to determine excess mortality and the risk factors that are associated. In the 2-year survivors, disease-free survival was 64% (60-68%) and overall survival was 74% (71-78%) at ten years; results were better in younger individuals and in women. Excess mortality was 14% (8-21%) in patients aged <45 years and 33% (13-53%) in patients aged ≥65 years. The main cause of death was relapse of the primary disease. Graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) before two years decreased the risk of relapse. Multivariable analysis of excess mortality showed that age, male sex recipient, secondary myelofibrosis and no GvHD disease prior to the 2-year landmark increased the risk of excess mortality. This is the largest study to date analyzing long-term outcome in patients with myelofibrosis undergoing transplant. Overall it shows a good survival in patients alive and in remission at two years. However, the occurrence of late complications, including late relapses, infectious complications and secondary malignancies, highlights the importance of screening and monitoring of long-term survivors.