Open Source Energy System Modeling Using Break-Even Costs to Inform State-Level Policy: A North Carolina Case Study.

Rigorous model-based analysis can help inform state-level energy and climate policy. In this study, we utilize an open-source energy system optimization model and publicly available data sets to examine future electricity generation, CO2 emissions, and CO2 abatement costs for the North Carolina electric power sector through 2050. Model scenarios include uncertainty in future fuel prices, a hypothetical CO2 cap, and an extended renewable portfolio standard. Across the modeled scenarios, solar photovoltaics represent the most cost-effective low-carbon technology, while trade-offs among carbon constrained scenarios largely involve natural gas and renewables. We also develop a new method to calculate break-even costs, which indicate the capital costs at which specific technologies become cost-effective within the model. Significant variation in break-even costs are observed across different technologies and scenarios. We illustrate how break-even costs can be used to inform the development of an extended renewable portfolio standard in North Carolina. Utilizing the break-even costs to calibrate a tax credit for onshore wind, we find that the resultant wind deployment displaces other renewables, and thus has a negligible effect on CO2 emissions. Such insights can provide crucial guidance to policymakers weighing different policy options. This study provides an analytical framework to conduct similar analyses in other states using an open source model and freely available data sets.

Solid Waste Management Policy Implications on Waste Process Choices and Systemwide Cost and Greenhouse Gas Performance.

Solid waste management (SWM) is a key function of local government and is critical to protecting human health and the environment. Development of effective SWM strategies should consider comprehensive SWM process choices and policy implications on system-level cost and environmental performance. This analysis evaluated cost and select environmental implications of SWM policies for Wake County, North Carolina using a life-cycle approach. A county-specific data set and scenarios were developed to evaluate alternatives for residential municipal SWM, which included combinations of a mixed waste material recovery facility (MRF), anaerobic digestion, and waste-to-energy combustion in addition to existing SWM infrastructure (composting, landfilling, single stream recycling). Multiple landfill diversion and budget levels were considered for each scenario. At maximum diversion, the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation costs ranged from 30 to 900 $/MTCO2e; the lower values were when a mixed waste MRF was used, and the higher values when anaerobic digestion was used. Utilization of the mixed waste MRF was sensitive to the efficiency of material separation and operating cost. Maintaining the current separate collection scheme limited the potential for cost and GHG reductions. Municipalities seeking to cost-effectively increase landfill diversion while reducing GHGs should consider waste-to-energy, mixed waste separation, and changes to collection.

US Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Absence of Federal Climate Policy.

The planned US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as well as uncertainty about federal climate policy has raised questions about the country's future emissions trajectory. Our model-based analysis accounts for uncertainty in fuel prices and energy technology capital costs and suggests that market forces are likely to keep US energy-related greenhouse gas emissions relatively flat or produce modest reductions: in the absence of new federal policy, 2040 greenhouse gas emissions range from +10% to -23% of the baseline estimate. Natural gas versus coal utilization in the electric sector represents a key trade-off, particularly under conservative assumptions about future technology innovation. The lowest emissions scenarios are produced when the cost of natural gas and electric vehicles declines, while coal and oil prices increase relative to the baseline.

Evaluation of Externality Costs in Life-Cycle Optimization of Municipal Solid Waste Management Systems.

The development of sustainable solid waste management (SWM) systems requires consideration of both economic and environmental impacts. Societal life-cycle costing (S-LCC) provides a quantitative framework to estimate both economic and environmental impacts, by including "budget costs" and "externality costs". Budget costs include market goods and services (economic impact), whereas externality costs include effects outside the economic system (e.g., environmental impact). This study demonstrates the applicability of S-LCC to SWM life-cycle optimization through a case study based on an average suburban U.S. county of 500 000 people generating 320 000 Mg of waste annually. Estimated externality costs are based on emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, PM2.5, PM10, NOx, SO2, VOC, CO, NH3, Hg, Pb, Cd, Cr (VI), Ni, As, and dioxins. The results indicate that incorporating S-LCC into optimized SWM strategy development encourages the use of a mixed waste material recovery facility with residues going to incineration, and separated organics to anaerobic digestion. Results are sensitive to waste composition, energy mix and recycling rates. Most of the externality costs stem from SO2, NOx, PM2.5, CH4, fossil CO2, and NH3 emissions. S-LCC proved to be a valuable tool for policy analysis, but additional data on key externality costs such as organic compounds emissions to water would improve future analyses.

Systematic Evaluation of Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Food Waste Management Strategies in the United States.

New regulations and targets limiting the disposal of food waste have been recently enacted in numerous jurisdictions. This analysis evaluated selected environmental implications of food waste management policies using life-cycle assessment. Scenarios were developed to evaluate management alternatives applicable to the waste discarded at facilities where food waste is a large component of the waste (e.g., restaurants, grocery stores, and food processors). Options considered include anaerobic digestion (AD), aerobic composting, waste-to-energy combustion (WTE), and landfilling, and multiple performance levels were considered for each option. The global warming impact ranged from approximately -350 to -45 kg CO2e Mg(-1) of waste for scenarios using AD, -190 to 62 kg CO2e Mg(-1) for those using composting, -350 to -28 kg CO2e Mg(-1) when all waste was managed by WTE, and -260 to 260 kg CO2e Mg(-1) when all waste was landfilled. Landfill diversion was found to reduce emissions, and diverting food waste from WTE generally increased emissions. The analysis further found that when a 20 year GWP was used instead of a 100 year GWP, every scenario including WTE was preferable to every scenario including landfill. Jurisdictions seeking to enact food waste disposal regulations should consider regional factors and material properties before duplicating existing statutes.

Characterization of uncertainty in estimation of methane collection from select U.S. landfills.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas generated from the anaerobic decomposition of waste in landfills. If captured, methane can be beneficially used to generate electricity. To inventory emissions and assist the landfill industry with energy recovery projects, the U.S. EPA developed the Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM) that includes two key parameters: the first-order decay rate (k) and methane production potential (L0). By using data from 11 U.S. landfills, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to quantify the effect of uncertainty in gas collection efficiency and municipal solid waste fraction on optimal k values and collectable methane. A dual-phase model and associated parameters were also developed to evaluate its performance relative to a single-phase model (SPM) similar to LandGEM. The SPM is shown to give lower error in estimating methane collection, with site-specific best-fit k values. Most of the optimal k values are notably greater than the U.S. EPA's default of 0.04 yr(-1), which implies that the gas generation decreases more rapidly than predicted at the current default. We translated the uncertainty in collectable methane into uncertainty in engine requirements and potential economic losses to demonstrate the practical significance to landfill operators. The results indicate that landfill operators could overpay for engine capacity by $30,000-780,000 based on overestimates of collectable methane.

How much do electric drive vehicles matter to future U.S. emissions?

Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles--known collectively as electric drive vehicles (EDVs)--may represent a clean and affordable option to meet growing U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand. The goal of this study is 2-fold: identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high LDV market penetration in the U.S. and quantify the associated change in CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions through midcentury. We employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES), a bottom-up energy system model, along with a U.S. data set developed for this analysis. To characterize EDV deployment through 2050, varying assumptions related to crude oil and natural gas prices, a CO2 policy, a federal renewable portfolio standard, and vehicle battery cost were combined to form 108 different scenarios. Across these scenarios, oil prices and battery cost have the biggest effect on EDV deployment. The model results do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions as EDV deployment increases. In addition to the trade-off between lower tailpipe and higher electric sector emissions associated with plug-in vehicles, the scenarios produce system-wide emissions effects that often mask the effect of EDV deployment.

Systematic exploration of efficient strategies to manage solid waste in U.S. municipalities: perspectives from the solid waste optimization life-cycle framework (SWOLF).

Solid waste management (SWM) systems must proactively adapt to changing policy requirements, waste composition, and an evolving energy system to sustainably manage future solid waste. This study represents the first application of an optimizable dynamic life-cycle assessment framework capable of considering these future changes. The framework was used to draw insights by analyzing the SWM system of a hypothetical suburban U.S. city of 100 000 people over 30 years while considering changes to population, waste generation, and energy mix and costs. The SWM system included 3 waste generation sectors, 30 types of waste materials, and 9 processes for waste separation, treatment, and disposal. A business-as-usual scenario (BAU) was compared to three optimization scenarios that (1) minimized cost (Min Cost), (2) maximized diversion (Max Diversion), and (3) minimized greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Min GHG) from the system. The Min Cost scenario saved $7.2 million (12%) and reduced GHG emissions (3%) relative to the BAU scenario. Compared to the Max Diversion scenario, the Min GHG scenario cost approximately 27% less and more than doubled the net reduction in GHG emissions. The results illustrate how the timed-deployment of technologies in response to changes in waste composition and the energy system results in more efficient SWM system performance compared to what is possible from static analyses.

Using observed data to improve estimated methane collection from select U.S. landfills.

The anaerobic decomposition of solid waste in a landfill produces methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and if recovered, a valuable energy commodity. Methane generation from U.S. landfills is usually estimated using the U.S. EPA's Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM). Default values for the two key parameters within LandGEM, the first-order decay rate (k) and the methane production potential (L0) are based on data collected in the 1990s. In this study, observed methane collection data from 11 U.S. landfills and estimates of gas collection efficiencies developed from site-specific gas well installation data were included in a reformulated LandGEM equation. Formal search techniques were employed to optimize k for each landfill to find the minimum sum of squared errors (SSE) between the LandGEM prediction and the observed collection data. Across nearly all landfills, the optimal k was found to be higher than the default AP-42 of 0.04 yr(-1) and the weighted average decay for the 11 landfills was 0.09 - 0.12 yr(-1). The results suggest that the default k value assumed in LandGEM is likely too low, which implies that more methane is produced in the early years following waste burial when gas collection efficiencies tend to be lower.

Evaluation of optimal model parameters for prediction of methane generation from selected U.S. landfills.

In practice, methane generation at U.S. landfills is typically predicted by using the EPA's Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM), which includes two parameters, the methane production potential (L0, m3 CH4 Mg-1 wet waste) and the first-order decay rate constant (k, yr-1). Default parameters in LandGEM (L0 = 100 and k = 0.04) were determined using data that reflect landfill management practices in the 1990s. In this study, methane collection data from 21 U.S. landfills were used to estimate the best fit k by inverse modeling of measured methane collection data in consideration of a time-varying gas collection efficiency. Optimal values of k were identified at a range of L0s between 55 and 160. The best fit k was greater than the U.S. EPA's default parameter of 0.04 yr-1 at 14 of the 21 landfills studied. Surprisingly, the best fit k was often observed at L0 values greater than 100 m3 CH4 Mg-1 wet waste which again is the U.S. EPA default. The results show that there is wide variation in the best estimate of k. While there was a tendency for landfills, or sections of landfills that received more moisture to exhibit higher decay rates, the results were not consistent. Some landfills exhibited high decay rates even though the data suggested that they were relatively dry while some wet landfills exhibited low decay rates. The results suggest that L0 captures many factors and that the data may be most useful for site specific analysis as opposed to general landfill predictions.

Analysis of material recovery facilities for use in life-cycle assessment.

Insights derived from life-cycle assessment of solid waste management strategies depend critically on assumptions, data, and modeling at the unit process level. Based on new primary data, a process model was developed to estimate the cost and energy use associated with material recovery facilities (MRFs), which are responsible for sorting recyclables into saleable streams and as such represent a key piece of recycling infrastructure. The model includes four modules, each with a different process flow, for separation of single-stream, dual-stream, pre-sorted recyclables, and mixed-waste. Each MRF type has a distinct combination of equipment and default input waste composition. Model results for total amortized costs from each MRF type ranged from $19.8 to $24.9 per Mg (1Mg=1 metric ton) of waste input. Electricity use ranged from 4.7 to 7.8kWh per Mg of waste input. In a single-stream MRF, equipment required for glass separation consumes 28% of total facility electricity consumption, while all other pieces of material recovery equipment consume less than 10% of total electricity. The dual-stream and mixed-waste MRFs have similar electricity consumption to a single-stream MRF. Glass separation contributes a much larger fraction of electricity consumption in a pre-sorted MRF, due to lower overall facility electricity consumption. Parametric analysis revealed that reducing separation efficiency for each piece of equipment by 25% altered total facility electricity consumption by less than 4% in each case. When model results were compared with actual data for an existing single-stream MRF, the model estimated the facility's electricity consumption within 2%. The results from this study can be integrated into LCAs of solid waste management with system boundaries that extend from the curb through final disposal.

The influence of large-scale wind power on global climate.

Large-scale use of wind power can alter local and global climate by extracting kinetic energy and altering turbulent transport in the atmospheric boundary layer. We report climate-model simulations that address the possible climatic impacts of wind power at regional to global scales by using two general circulation models and several parameterizations of the interaction of wind turbines with the boundary layer. We find that very large amounts of wind power can produce nonnegligible climatic change at continental scales. Although large-scale effects are observed, wind power has a negligible effect on global-mean surface temperature, and it would deliver enormous global benefits by reducing emissions of CO(2) and air pollutants. Our results may enable a comparison between the climate impacts due to wind power and the reduction in climatic impacts achieved by the substitution of wind for fossil fuels.