Association between traditional cardiovascular risk factors and mortality in the oldest old: untangling the role of frailty.

BACKGROUND: To date, there is no consensus regarding cardiovascular risk management in the very old. Studies have shown that the relationship between traditional cardiovascular risk factors and mortality is null or even inverted within this age group. This relationship could be modified by the presence of frailty. This study was performed to examine the effect of frailty on the association between cardiovascular risk factors and mortality in the oldest old. METHODS: The BELFRAIL study is a prospective, observational, population-based cohort study of 567 subjects aged 80 years and older. Data on cardiovascular risk factors were recorded. Frailty was assessed using three different models: the Groningen Frailty Indicator, Fried and Puts models. Participants were considered robust if they were 'not frail' according to all three models, and frail if they met the frailty criteria for one of the three models. The follow-up data on mortality and cause of death were registered. RESULTS: No cardiovascular risk factor was associated with mortality in subjects with and without cardiovascular disease. The presence of frailty was a strong risk factor for mortality [HR: 2.5, 95%CI: (1.9-3.2) for all-cause mortality; HR: 2.2, 95%CI: (1.4-3.4) for cardiovascular mortality]. In robust patients, a history of cardiovascular disease increased the risk for mortality [HR: 1.7, 95%CI: (1.1-2.5) for all-cause mortality; HR: 2.2, 95%CI: (1.2-3.9) for cardiovascular mortality]. In frail patients, there was no association between any of the traditional risk factors and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional cardiovascular risk factors were not associated with mortality in very old subjects. Frailty was shown to be a strong risk factor for mortality in this age group. However, frailty could not be used to identify additional subjects who might benefit more from cardiovascular risk management.

Too many, too few, or too unsafe? Impact of inappropriate prescribing on mortality, and hospitalization in a cohort of community-dwelling oldest old.

AIMS: Little is known about the impact of inappropriate prescribing (IP) in community-dwelling adults, aged 80 years and older. The prevalence at baseline (November 2008September 2009) and impact of IP (misuse and underuse) after 18 months on mortality and hospitalization in a cohort of community-dwelling adults, aged 80 years and older (n = 503) was studied. METHODS: Screening Tool of Older People's Prescriptions (STOPP-2, misuse) and Screening Tool to Alert to Right Treatment (START-2, underuse) criteria were cross-referenced and linked to the medication use (in Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical coding) and clinical problems. Survival analysis until death or first hospitalization was performed at 18 months after inclusion using Kaplan-Meier, with Cox regression to control for covariates. RESULTS: Mean age was 84.4 (range 80-102) years. Mean number of medications prescribed was 5 (range 0-16). Polypharmacy (≥5 medications, 58%), underuse (67%) and misuse (56%) were high. Underuse and misuse coexisted in 40% and were absent in 17% of the population. A higher number of prescribed medications was correlated with more misused medications (rs  = .51, P < 0.001) and underused medications (rs  = .26, P < 0.001). Mortality and hospitalization rate were 8.9%, and 31.0%, respectively. After adjustment for number of medications and misused medications, there was an increased risk of mortality (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.10, 1.76) and hospitalization (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.10, 1.45) for every additional underused medication. Associations with misuse were less clear. CONCLUSION: IP (polypharmacy, underuse and misuse) was highly prevalent in adults, aged 80 years and older. Surprisingly, underuse and not misuse had strong associations with mortality and hospitalization.

Association between atrial fibrillation, anticoagulation, risk of cerebrovascular events and multimorbidity in general practice: a registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: To date, there has been no comprehensive study on the association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and multimorbidity. The present study investigated the epidemiology of AF and the association between multimorbidity and the onset of AF. In addition, the correlation between multimorbidity and the use of anticoagulants and the risk of cerebrovascular events considering multimorbidity was explored in AF patients. METHODS: Intego is a primary care registry network in Belgium. A case-control study was performed using Intego data from a 10-year time interval (2002 to 2011). All patients aged 60 years and older in 2002 who had developed new AF between 2002 and 2011 were selected, as well as a group of matched control patients. In addition, the prescription of anticoagulants and incident cerebrovascular events were recorded in patients with AF. RESULTS: AF showed a prevalence of 5.3 % in 2002, and an upward trend was observed between 2002 and 2011. In all, 1830 patients with AF and 6622 control patients were included. AF patients had significantly more comorbidities (mCCI (modified Charlson Comorbidity Index) 5 ± 2 vs 4 ± 2, P < 0.001). In addition, 9.7 % of patients with AF developed a cerebrovascular event (mean follow-up time of 2.7 ± 2.5 years). Both the under- and overuse of anticoagulants was observed. Of the 49 % of patients with AF who were considered at high risk (CHADS2 ≥ 2), 50 % received anticoagulants in the first six months after diagnosis, whereas 49 % of patients who were at low risk (CHADS2 = 0) did not. CONCLUSIONS: AF is highly prevalent in older primary care patients and is significantly associated with multimorbidity. A discrepancy between the guidelines and clinical practice of anticoagulant use was observed. As multimorbidity seems to play a role in this, further qualitative research to study the perception and motives of the general practitioner is needed.

The clinical impact of valvular heart disease in a population-based cohort of subjects aged 80 and older.

BACKGROUND: In our ageing society, valvular heart diseases (VHD) have become an increasing public health problem. However, the lack of studies describing the impact of these diseases on the outcome of very old subjects makes it difficult to appreciate their real clinical burden. METHODS: Prospective, observational, population-based cohort study in Belgium. Five hundred fifty six subjects aged 80 years and older were followed up for 5.1 ± 0.25 years for mortality and 3.0 ± 0.25 years for hospitalization. Echocardiograms were performed at baseline. The Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS) was calculated for each subject. RESULTS: The prevalence of moderate-to-severe VHD was 17% (n = 97). Mitral stenosis was more prevalent in women and an age-dependent increase of the prevalence of severe aortic stenosis was seen. The overall disease burden was higher in participants with VHD (median CIRS 3 [IQR 3-5] vs 4 [IQR 3-6] (P = 0.008)). Moderate-to-severe VHD, and more specifically mitral stenosis and aortic stenosis, was found to be an independent predictor of both all-cause (HR 1.42 (95% CI 1.04-1.95)) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.13 (95% CI 1.38-3.29)). Moderate-to-severe VHD was also found to be an independent predictor of the need for a first unplanned hospitalization (HR 1.43 (95% CI 1.06-1.94)). CONCLUSIONS: A high prevalence of moderate-to-severe VHD was found in the very old. Moderate-to-severe VHD was identified as an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and as well for unplanned hospitalizations, independent of other structural cardiac abnormalities, ventricular function and major co-morbidities.

Treatment intentions of general practitioners regarding hypertension in the oldest old: a vignette study.

BACKGROUND: The recent literature has shown that the risk of hypertension in the old strongly depends on their physical abilities. However, it is unknown whether general practitioners (GPs) adapt their treatment strategies to the patient's independence. This study was conducted to investigate the treatment intentions of GPs for patients aged 80 and older with hypertension in relation to the patients' level of dependency. METHODS: A vignette study in Belgium. Flemish GPs (n = 305) were invited, directly or indirectly, by email to fill out a questionnaire, consisting of nine cases (three themes). In each theme, the level of dependency gradually increased. Per case, a score depending on the GP's treatment intention was calculated (range 0-3). The total score represented the 'Intention to Treat Hypertension in Older Persons' scale (ITHOP-scale). The difference between the score for robust patients and strongly dependent patients was calculated (delta score). RESULTS: The scores on the ITHOP scale showed a mean of 15.2 ± 6.0. A significant difference in treatment intention was found between robust patients and strongly dependent patients. The delta score showed a mean of 1.7 ± 1.8. Differences between the GPs were responsible for 75 % of the variance of the total score, and differences in the level of dependency did not influence the variance (G coefficient =0.82). The GP's experience showed an inverse relationship to the total and the delta score. CONCLUSION: Large differences in treatment intentions for hypertension in the very old exist between GPs, but the patient's level of dependency is not responsible for these differences.

Evaluating the scripts and thresholds of general practitioners for diagnosing heart failure in elderly people.

BACKGROUND: Multiple diagnostic algorithms for heart failure exist. However, it is unclear whether these algorithms are incorporated in the 'scripts' clinicians use in every day practice. Scripts are networks of organised knowledge that are acquired and accumulated during clinical training and are refined with each clinical encounter. This study was conducted to evaluate the scripts and thresholds that GPs use to diagnose heart failure in patients aged 75 years and older. METHODS: The scripts and thresholds of 130 Belgian GPs in training and 63 experienced trainers were compared using an online questionnaire based on the same principles as the script concordance test. Two major cases with an open question and 19 minor cases with closed questions were presented. For the minor cases, all of the respondents were asked to assign a diagnostic power to individual cues. Based on these powers, a diagnostic threshold was calculated for each respondent for the two major cases. RESULTS: The trainers and trainees used the same scripts to diagnose heart failure in the two major cases. Only ~50 % of the participants used natriuretic peptides in their scripts, although they judged it as the most powerful marker to demonstrate or exclude heart failure. The power that respondents gave to several cues differed significantly according to the context in which these cues were presented. In general, the average exclusive power of different cues was lower than the demonstrative power of the cues. There was no difference in diagnostic threshold between the trainers and trainees. CONCLUSION: Young, inexperienced GPs used the same scripts as older, more experienced GPs. In general, technical investigations were less frequently queried, compared to elements of the medical history and the clinical examination. The clinical context had a strong impact on the diagnostic power that was assigned to different factors.

No relation between CMV infection and mortality in the oldest old: results from the Belfrail study.

OBJECTIVE: previous studies have demonstrated an association between cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and mortality in adults. In this prospective study, it was investigated whether these findings could be confirmed in the oldest old. METHODOLOGY: data obtained from a prospective observational cohort study (2008-2012) of 549 community-dwelling persons in Belgium aged 80 and older. RESULTS: seventy-six percent were anti-CMV seropositive of whom 37.5% had an anti-CMV IgG titre in the highest tertile (>250 IU/ml). After a median time of follow-up of 1,049 days, 127 deaths occurred. Cox proportional hazard models failed to show an association between CMV serostatus and all-cause mortality. Among persons seropositive for CMV, after adjusting for multiple confounders an anti-CMV in the highest tertile was statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 1.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.08, 2.48). CONCLUSION: in contrast to previous findings, a positive CMV serostatus was not associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality in this cohort of very old people. This is probably the result of a survival effect. CMV seropositive subjects with high anti-CMV titres were at higher risk for all-cause mortality compared with other individuals. This may reflect CMV infection reactivation to be more common in the end stages of life.

The diagnostic accuracy of the MyDiagnostick to detect atrial fibrillation in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is very common in people aged 65 or older. This condition increases the risk of death, congestive heart failure and thromboembolic conditions. Many patients with atrial fibrillation are asymptomatic and a cerebrovascular accident (CVA) is often the first clinical presentation. Guidelines concerning the prevention of CVA recommend monitoring the heart rate in patients aged 65 or older. Recently, the MyDiagnostick (Applied Biomedical Systems BV, Maastricht, The Netherlands) was introduced as a new screening tool which might serve as an alternative for the less accurate pulse palpation. This study was designed to explore the diagnostic accuracy of the MyDiagnostick for the detection of atrial fibrillation. METHODS: A phase II diagnostic accuracy study in a convenience sample of 191 subjects recruited in primary care. The majority of participants were patients with a known history of atrial fibrillation (n=161). Readings of the MyDiagnostick were compared with electrocardiographic recordings. Sensitivity and specificity and their 95% confidence interval were calculated using 2x2 tables. RESULTS: A prevalence of 54% for an atrial fibrillation rhythm was found in the study population at the moment of the study. A combination of three measurements with the MyDiagnostick for each patient showed a sensitivity of 94% (95% CI 87 - 98) and a specificity of 93% (95% CI 85 - 97). CONCLUSION: The MyDiagnostick is an easy-to-use device that showed a good diagnostic accuracy with a high sensitivity and specificity for atrial fibrillation in a convenience sample in primary care. Future research is needed to determine the place of the MyDiagnostick in possible screening or case-finding strategies for atrial fibrillation.

Prediction of mortality and functional decline by changes in eGFR in the very elderly: the Leiden 85-plus study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease is high in the elderly, but the effects of a decrease in the eGFR on mortality and functioning are still unclear. The aim of this study was to determine whether the combination of the eGFR and the eGFR slope is a predictor of mortality and functional decline. METHODS: The eGFR (MDRD equation) and the eGFR slope were calculated. The slope was calculated using four annual eGFR measurements taken from 85 to 88 years of age. Mortality and changes in the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) and the Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scores were analysed as outcomes from 88 years onwards. RESULTS: 378 persons aged 88 years participating to the Leiden 85 plus study, an observational prospective cohort study in the general population, were included. A combined analysis of the baseline eGFR and the eGFR slope showed that an eGFR of >60 ml/min combined with an eGFR decrease of ≥3 ml/min/year and an eGFR of <60 ml/min combined with an of eGFR decrease ≥5 ml/min/year were independent predictors of increased mortality. The baseline eGFR, the eGFR slope and a combination of both factors did not predict changes in the MMSE, GDS or ADL scores between 88 and 90 years. CONCLUSION: The combination of the eGFR and the eGFR decrease allows the identification of subgroups of very elderly with increased mortality risks and of subgroups of very elderly with an eGFR of <60 ml/min without an increased risk of mortality.

The evolution of renal function and the incidence of end-stage renal disease in patients aged ≥ 50 years.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is high, especially among older patients. METHODS: In order to identify risk factors for the evolution towards end-stage renal disease (ESRD), a cohort of patients ≥ 50 years of age for whom at least four serum creatinine measurements were available were selected from a primary care-based database. The slope of changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula) was calculated, and ESRD was defined as eGFR <15 mL/min. Risk factors for ESRD were analysed using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: The cohort included 24,682 patients (13,305 women) with a mean age at first available measurement of 64 years. During follow-up (average 7.8 years), 212 patients (0.9%) developed ESRD. The incidence of ESRD per 10,000 person-years is low and depends on baseline eGFR (Stages 0-2: 3, Stage 3A: 13, Stage 3B: 121 and Stage 4: 765). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for patients with baseline eGFR in Stage 3B or 4 depended on age (HR = 0.47 or 0.41 for patients 65-79 years and HR = 0.26 or 0.32 for patients ≥ 80 years compared with patients aged 50-64 years). Females (HR = 1.48) and patients with diabetes (HR = 1.20), hypertension (HR = 1.25), high total cholesterol (HR = 1.28) or high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (HR = 1.39) were at higher risk for ESRD. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline eGFR, diabetes, high cholesterol, high LDL, hypertension and female gender are independent risk factors for developing ESRD. Older age at baseline predicts a lower risk.

Differential diagnosis in a primary care population with presumed airway obstruction: a real-life study.

BACKGROUND: Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have major symptoms in common. However, the mode of the underlying chronic airway inflammation is different. There is still no single diagnostic test that can be considered a gold standard to distinguish asthma from COPD. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy for asthma and COPD of a series of diagnostic steps in a population older than 40 years with probable obstructive airway disease (OAD) in primary care. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, patients without a certain diagnosis underwent a work-up, including office spirometry by their general practitioner (GP). They were then referred to a pulmonologist, and they had control visits with their GP. The diagnostic gain of subsequent steps was calculated for 2 endpoints, namely the specialist's opinion and the GP's final opinion. RESULTS: Up to 60% of the patients failed to consult with the pulmonologist. For this subgroup, the office spirometry induced significantly more diagnostic congruency than any other diagnostic step. The specialists rejected 44.5% of the diagnoses made by the GPs, including spirometry. High values of diagnostic gain were found after the office spirometry and after the specialist's advice. Up to 25% of the population taking bronchodilators were judged not to suffer from OAD. CONCLUSIONS: Office spirometry added significantly more to the diagnostic certainty of the GPs than questionnaires, history and clinical examination. A pulmonologist's advice contributed more to diagnostic certainty than any other diagnostic step. Nevertheless, 26% of the diagnoses made by the chest physicians were reconsidered by the GPs.

Validated methods of cough assessment: a systematic review of the literature.

BACKGROUND: Cough is a common symptom for which patients often seek medical advice and consume vast amounts of drugs. It is a real challenge for both the physician and the clinical researcher to evaluate a cough's clinical importance and its precise response to treatment. OBJECTIVES: This systematic literature review has the following objectives: first, to make an inventory of the validated tools for assessing cough, and second, to investigate the extent to which the results of various assessment methods can be correlated. METHODS: Two independent investigators searched the Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases for validation studies on cough assessment tools. RESULTS: Thirty-four studies were included. Several ambulatory cough monitors automatically identify cough and have been validated in a limited number of patients. Three cough-specific quality-of-life scales (Leicester Cough Questionnaire, Cough Quality of Life Questionnaire, and Burden of Cough Questionnaire) have been validated. No validation studies of descriptive scores or visual analogue scales were found. The correlations between quality-of-life scores and cough frequency were good. The correlations between descriptive scores or visual analogue scales and more objective methods, such as cough frequency monitoring or quality-of-life scores, were inconsistent. CONCLUSION: Cough-specific quality-of-life questionnaires can provide valid outcomes for research into cough. Although the current developments in cough monitoring devices are promising, further studies on a larger scale, under more realistic conditions, and for different patterns of cough are required before they can be recommended for widespread use.

To screen or not to screen for peripheral arterial disease in subjects aged 80 and over in primary health care: a cross-sectional analysis from the BELFRAIL study.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is common in older people. An ankle-brachial index (ABI) < 0.9 can be used as an indicator of PAD. Patients with low ABI have increased mortality and a higher risk of serious cardiovascular morbidity. However, because 80% of the patients are asymptomatic, PAD remains unrecognised in a large group of patients. The aims of this study were 1) to examine the prevalence of reduced ABI in subjects aged 80 and over, 2) to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the medical history and clinical examination for reduced ABI and 3) to investigate the difference in functioning and physical activity between patients with and without reduced ABI. METHODS: A cross-sectional study embedded within the BELFRAIL study. A general practitioner (GP) centre, located in Hoeilaart, Belgium, recruited 239 patients aged 80 or older. Only three criteria for exclusion were used: urgent medical need, palliative situation and known serious dementia. The GP recorded the medical history and performed a clinical examination. The clinical research assistant performed an extensive examination including Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15), Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Tinetti test and the LASA Physical Activity Questionnaire (LAPAQ). ABI was measured using an automatic oscillometric appliance. RESULTS: In 40% of patients, a reduced ABI was found. Cardiovascular risk factors were unable to identify patients with low ABI. A negative correlation was found between the number of cardiovascular morbidities and ABI. Cardiovascular morbidity had a sensitivity of 65.7% (95% CI 53.4-76.7) and a specificity of 48.6% (95% CI 38.7-58.5). Palpation of the peripheral arteries showed the highest negative predictive value (77.7% (95% CI 71.8-82.9)). The LAPAQ score was significantly lower in the group with reduced ABI. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of PAD is very high in patients aged 80 and over in general practice. The clinical examination, cardiovascular risk factors and the presence of cardiovascular morbidity were not able to identify patients with a low ABI. A screening strategy for PAD by determining ABI could be considered if effective interventions for those aged 80 and over with a low ABI become available through future research.

Methods to evaluate renal function in elderly patients: a systematic literature review.

CONTEXT: multiple studies of elderly patients show that the prevalence of chronic renal failure in people aged 65 years and older is dependent on the method used to calculate the glomerular filtration rate. We performed a systematic literature search with research question: What is the best method that could be applicable in clinical practice for evaluating renal function in the elderly? Studies using inulin, Cr-51-EDTA, Tc-DTPA or iohexol assays as the gold standard were included. METHODS: we searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases. Articles found were screened first by title and abstract and then by five criteria. Retained articles were scored using an adapted version of QUADAS. RESULTS: twelve articles had an identified population or subpopulation aged 65 years and older. The studies were heterogeneous with regard to the population investigated and the statistical procedures used to compare the methods and equations with the gold standard. The Cockcroft-Gault (CG) and MDRD equations and the serum cystatin C concentration produced the highest correlations with the gold standard. CONCLUSIONS: no accurate method to evaluate renal function in the elderly was found. Serum cystatin C concentration and the CG and MDRD formula might be valuable parameters, although there is insufficient evidence.

Diagnostic accuracy of plasma NT-proBNP levels for excluding cardiac abnormalities in the very elderly.

BACKGROUND: In the elderly the diagnosis of chronic heart failure is often challenging and the availability of echocardiography can be limited. Plasma levels of NT-proBNP are valuable tools to diagnose patients with heart failure. However, the performance of this biomarker to detect cardiac abnormalities in the very elderly remains unclear. The aims of this study were to investigate the relation between NT-proBNP and cardiac abnormalities and to evaluate the use of NT-proBNP to exclude structural and functional cardiac abnormalities in a community-based sample of "well-functioning" nonagenarians. METHODS: A diagnostic cross-sectional study embedded within the Leiden 85-plus Study in the municipality of Leiden, the Netherlands. Plasma NT-proBNP levels were measured and 2-dimensional echocardiography was performed in a subgroup of 80 well-functioning nonagenarians. Linear regression analysis was used to explore the relation between NT-proBNP and cardiac abnormalities and ROC curve analysis was used to assess the performance of NT-proBNP to exclude cardiac abnormalities. The upper limit of the lowest tertile of NT-proBNP was used as a cut-off value. RESULTS: NT-proBNP levels were associated with abnormal left ventricular (LV) dimensions, LV systolic and diastolic function, left atrial enlargement and valvular heart disease. LV mass, E/A ratio and degree of aortic regurgitation were identified as independent predictors of NT-proBNP. NT-proBNP levels were higher with greater number of echocardiographic abnormalities (P < 0.001). A cut-off level of 269.5 pg/mL identified patients with abnormal LV dimensions or depressed LV systolic function (sensitivity 85%, negative predictive value (NPV) 77%, area under the curve 0.75 (95% CI 0.64-0.85)). In addition, high NPV were found for LV systolic dysfunction, left atrial enlargement, severe valvular heart disease and pulmonary hypertension. The test performance of NT-proBNP to exclude any echocardiographic abnormality showed a sensitivity of 82% and a NPV of 65%. CONCLUSIONS: In this convenience sample of well-functioning nonagenarians NT-proBNP was related to a wide variety of functional and structural echocardiographic abnormalities. Moreover, NT-proBNP could be used to exclude echocardiographic abnormalities in well-functioning nonagenarians and might be used to indicate who needs to be referred for further cardiovascular examination.

The BELFRAIL (BFC80+) study: a population-based prospective cohort study of the very elderly in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: In coming decades the proportion of very elderly people living in the Western world will dramatically increase. This forthcoming "grey epidemic" will lead to an explosion of chronic diseases. In order to anticipate booming health care expenditures and to assure that social security is funded in the future, research focusing on the relationship between chronic diseases, frailty and disability is needed. The general aim of the BELFRAIL cohort study (BFC80+) is to study the dynamic interaction between health, frailty and disability in a multi-system approach focusing on cardiac dysfunction and chronic heart failure, lung function, sarcopenia, renal insufficiency and immunosenescence. METHODS/DESIGN: The BFC80+ is a prospective, observational, population-based cohort study of subjects aged 80 years and older in three well-circumscribed areas of Belgium. In total, 29 general practitioner (GP) centres were asked to include patients aged 80 and older. Only three exclusion criteria were used: severe dementia, in palliative care and medical emergency. Two sampling methods for the recruitment of patients were used. Between November 2, 2008 and September 15, 2009, 567 subjects were included in the BFC80+ study. Every study participant was invited to undergo four study visits. The GP recorded background variables and medical history and performed a detailed anamnesis and clinical examination. The clinical research assistant performed an extensive examination including performance testing, questionnaires and technical examinations. Echocardiography was performed at home by a cardiologist. A blood sample was collected in the morning. Follow-up reporting of hard outcome measures including mortality, hospitalization and morbidity was organized. A second data collection is planned after 18 months. DISCUSSION: The BFC80+ was designed to acquire a better understanding of the epidemiology and pathophysiology of chronic diseases in the very elderly and to study the dynamic interaction between health, frailty and disability in a multi-system approach. The wide variety of dimensions investigated in the BFC80+ will enable us not only to investigate in depth the relationship between the different physiological systems but also to initiate new research questions based on this unique database of community-dwelling elderly.

Usable knowledge, hazardous ignorance - beyond the percentage correct score.

BACKGROUND: Little attention has been paid to the metacognitive ability of medical students. AIM: We used confidence marking to explore certainty of knowledge and ignorance. METHODS: One hundred and twenty-seven of 169 general practice trainees took part. Students sat a written multiple choice question (MCQ) test. Each answer was followed by a degree of certainty judgement. Answers attributed with a high degree of certainty were used to compute overall usable knowledge, hazardous ignorance, proportions of knowledge that is usable and of ignorance that is hazardous. The former variables were analysed according to MCQ score, year of training and gender. RESULTS: At a group level, the mean amount of usable knowledge on the MCQ was 21.13%, mean amount of hazardous ignorance on the MCQ was 5.21%, mean proportion of knowledge that was usable was 36.57%, mean proportion of ignorance that was hazardous was 14.32%. There were neither significant differences between highest and lowest quartiles of MCQ score, nor according to year of training. Men had higher levels of ignorance that is hazardous. CONCLUSION: A third of trainees' knowledge was partial. A sixth of their ignorance was hazardous. Confidence marking can aid formative assessment and could potentially be implemented into summative assessments.

Biomarkers versus traditional risk factors to predict cardiovascular events in very old adults: cross-validated prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To test new cardiovascular (CV) risk models in very old adults with and without a history of CV disease (CVD), based on traditional risk factors and biomarkers. DESIGN: Cross-validated prospective cohort study. The models were tested in the BELFRAIL Study and externally validated in the Leiden 85-plus Study. SETTING: General practice, Belgium and The Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: The BELFRAIL cohort consisted of 266 patients aged 80 years or older without a history of CVD and 260 with a history of CVD. The Leiden 85-plus Study consisted of 264 patients aged 85 years without a history of CVD and 282 with a history of CVD. OUTCOME MEASURES: The model with traditional risk factors and biomarkers, as well as the model using only biomarkers, was compared with the model with only traditional risk factors to predict 3-year CV morbidity and mortality. A competing-risk analysis was performed, and the continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net benefit were used to compare the predictive value of the different models. RESULTS: Traditional risk factors poorly predicted CV mortality and morbidity. In participants without a history of CVD, adding N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) improved the prediction (NRI 0.56 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.99) and relative IDI 4.01 (95% CI 2.19 to 6.28)). In participants with a history of CVD, the NRI with the addition of NT-pro-BNP and high-sensitivity C reactive protein was 0.38 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.70), and the relative IDI was 0.53 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.90). Moreover, in participants without a history of CVD, NT-pro-BNP performed well as a stand-alone predictor (NRI 0.32 (95% CI -0.12 to 0.74) and relative IDI 3.44 (95% CI 1.56 to 6.09)). CONCLUSIONS: This study tested new risk models to predict CV morbidity and mortality in very old adults. Especially, NT-pro-BNP showed a strong added predictive value. This opens perspectives for clinicians who are in need of an easily applicable strategy for CV risk prediction in very old adults.

The accuracy of plasma natriuretic peptide levels for diagnosis of cardiac dysfunction and chronic heart failure in community-dwelling elderly: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: measurement of plasma natriuretic peptide levels has been proposed as a simple, accessible test to assist the diagnosis of cardiac dysfunction and heart failure. Most studies have been hospital based and have investigated the relationship between natriuretic peptides and cardiac dysfunction or heart failure in younger populations. OBJECTIVE: we performed a systematic review to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of plasma natriuretic peptide measurement in elderly patients from the general population. METHODS: electronic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE from January 1985 to May 2008 were performed. Diagnostic cohort and cross-sectional studies on the accuracy of natriuretic peptides for diagnosis of cardiac dysfunction or chronic heart failure in people aged 75 and over in the community were included. The quality of the selected studies was assessed with the modified QUADAS tool and the data extracted by two independent reviewers. RESULTS: five studies were included. The general quality of the studies was moderate. The extracted data could not be pooled. Negative likelihood ratios for cardiac dysfunction ranged from 0.09 to 0.29. CONCLUSION: we found limited evidence supporting the use of plasma natriuretic peptide measurement for diagnosis of cardiac dysfunction or heart failure in the elderly of 75 years and over in the general population. Important questions about the implementation of plasma natriuretic peptide measurement in daily practice remain unresolved.