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Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a "theory of everything" for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To analyse the presence of VC at the start of dialysis and its relationship with events and/or death from cardiovascular causes in the course of follow-up. METHODS: In the study, we included patients who started dialysis between November 2003 and September 2007. In the first month of treatment, we assessed the presence of VC by Doppler echocardiography, along with demographic factors and risk factors for cardiovascular disease, coronary artery disease, stroke, atrial fibrillation (AF), and cardiac dimensional and functional electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters. The biochemistry values assessed were: haemoglobin, calcium/phosphorous/iPTH metabolism, cholesterol and fractions, triglycerides, troponin I, albumin, CRP and glycosylated haemoglobin. We analysed the association between VC and the presence of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and/or death from cardiovascular causes up to transplantation, death or the end of the study (December 2012). RESULTS: Of 256 enrolled patients (83% haemodialysis, 17% peritoneal dialysis), 128 (50%) had VC (mitral: 39, aortic: 20, both: 69). In the multivariate analysis, VC was associated with older age (OR: 1.110; 95% CI: 1.073-1.148; p = 0.000) and lower albumin levels (OR: 0.29; 95% CI: 0.14-0.61; p = 0.001). In a follow-up lasting 42.1 ± 30.2 months (898.1 patient-years), 68 patients suffered MI, stroke and/or died from cardiovascular causes. In the Cox regression analysis, older age (HR: 1.028; 95% CI: 1.002-1.055; p = 0.037), coronary artery disease and/or stroke (HR: 1.979; 95% CI: 1.111-3.527; p = 0.021), AF (HR: 2.474; 95% CI: 1.331-4.602; p = 0.004), and the presence of VC at the start of dialysis (HR: 1.996; 95% CI: 1.077-3.700; p = 0.028) were the predictor variables for the occurrence of the analysed events. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of VC at the start of dialysis is high and its presence predicts the occurrence of events and/or cardiovascular death in the course of follow-up.