Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) score has the major impact on outcome prediction in elderly surgical patients with colorectal cancer: The FRAGIS study.

BACKGROUND: This study aims (I) to evaluate whether the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) score is associated with postoperative outcomes and (II) to develop a prognostic model for individual complication-risk prediction following colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery. METHOD: This is a prospective multicentric cohort study. Consecutive ≥75-year-old candidates for elective CRC surgery were enrolled from October 2017 to August 2019. Patients underwent standardized preoperative geriatric assessment including the MPI. Patients with MPI score > 0.33 were classified as frail. Logistic regression models were employed to evaluate variables associated with major postoperative complications and mortality, using 10-fold cross-validated LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) for model selection. RESULTS: In all, 104 patients were included, 34 (33%) had MPI score > 0.33. Major postoperative complications occurred in 52% of frail versus 16% of fit (MPI score ≤ 0.33) patients (p < .01). Both 30-day (9% vs. 0%; p = .033) and 90-day mortality (18% vs. 1%; p < .01) were higher among frail patients. In multivariate analysis, MPI score was associated with adverse outcomes. A final postoperative complication predictive model was created, including MPI score, gait-speed test, ASA (American Society of Anesthesiology) score, surgical approach, and stoma creation. CONCLUSION: MPI score is strongly associated with postoperative major complications in CRC elderly patients and it is a primary component of an individual prediction model.

Is the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator Accurate in Predicting Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in the Emergency Setting? An Italian Single-center Preliminary Study.

BACKGROUND: The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator (SRC) is an open-access online tool that estimates the chance for adverse postoperative outcomes. The risk is estimated based on 21 patient-related variables and customized for specific surgical procedures. The purpose of this monocentric retrospective study is to validate its predictive value in an Italian emergency setting. METHODS: From January to December 2018, 317 patients underwent surgical procedures for acute cholecystitis (n = 103), appendicitis (n = 83), gastrointestinal perforation (n = 45), and intestinal obstruction (n = 86). Patients' personal risk was obtained and divided by the average risk to calculate a personal risk ratio (RR). Areas under the ROC curves (AUC) and Brier score were measured to assess both the discrimination and calibration of the predictive model. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.772 (95%CI 0.722-0.817, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.161) for serious complications, 0.887 (95%CI 0.847-0.919, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.072) for death, and 0.887 (95%CI 0.847-0.919, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.106) for discharge to nursing or rehab facility. Pneumonia, cardiac complications, and surgical site infection presented an AUC of 0.794 (95%CI 0.746-0.838, p < 0.001; Brier 0.103), 0.836 (95%CI 0.790-0.875, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.081), and 0.729 (95%CI 0.676-0.777, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.131), respectively. A RR > 1.24, RR > 1.52, and RR > 2.63 predicted the onset of serious complications (sensitivity = 60.47%, specificity = 64.07%; NPV = 81%), death (sensitivity = 82.76%, specificity = 62.85%; NPV = 97%), and discharge to nursing or rehab facility (sensitivity = 80.00%, specificity = 69.12%; NPV = 95%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The calculator appears to be accurate in predicting adverse postoperative outcomes in our emergency setting. A RR cutoff provides a much more practical method to forecast the onset of a specific type of complication in a single patient.

Open abdomen: is a dedicated emergency surgery team needed? A single center retrospective study on 141 consecutive patients.

BACKGROUND: Open Abdomen (OA) is widely used when facing a catastrophic abdomen. Still, no indication is validated by a strong and high quality of evidence. The study reports the 5 year experience of a dedicated emergency general surgery (EGS) team. METHODS: Retrospective observational cohort study. Patients undergoing OA management from 2/01/2015 to 19/07/2020 for trauma, non-traumatic emergencies or rescue surgery. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-one patients. Age 66.9 ± 15.1. Male 58.2%.9.3% OA for trauma, 64.5% for non-traumatic emergencies and 26.2% for rescue surgery. 40.4% performed by the EGS team 52.4% indication for surgery was a severe intra-abdominal infection. TAC device: commercial negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) (83%), Sandwich VAC (12%), commercial NPWT with polypropylene mesh (5%) for pregressive fascial traction. Enteroatmospheric fistula (EAF) in 3 patients. OA duration 5.3 days (1-25). A 1.8 revision surgeries (0-12) required for definitive closure; ICU stay 9.9 days (0-78). 30-day mortality 23.5%. Overall and 1-year mortality were 47.5% and 43.3%. Overall survival 9.9 months. An increased one-year mortality rate was found in the >65 group (P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We reported a wide use of OA in septic abdomen (90% of cases). We had a low rate of EAF, short ICU stay and OA duration. These results are related to the fact that patients were treated by a dedicated EGS team, suggesting that OA management should be cared for as much as possible by trained and experienced surgeons. Prospective studies with more accurate patient selection are needed to prove our conclusions.

Trend of emergency general surgery procedures during COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: In early 2020, the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) spread rapidly throughout the whole world, causing a massive response in terms of health resource disposal. Moreover, lockdowns were imposed in entire countries. This study aims to assess whether there was a downward trend in emergency general surgery (EGS) procedures accomplished throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and to determine patients' and diseases' characteristics. METHODS: This is a multicentric retrospective observational cohort analysis conducted on patients who underwent EGS procedures during the lockdown and the same period of the previous year in the three Third Level Hospitals of Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy. RESULTS: During the study period, 138 patients underwent EGS procedures versus the 197 patients operated on in 2019, meaning a 30.0% decrease in the number of surgeries performed. The incidence rate for EGS procedures was 2.5 surgeries per day during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to 3.5 surgeries per day in 2019 (P<0.001). The characteristics of patients operated on in 2020 were comparable to those of patients who underwent EGS in 2019, except for the higher prevalence of male patients during the COVID-19 pandemic (76.8 vs. 55.8; P<0.001). No difference was recorded in disease severity between the two study periods. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant reduction in EGS procedures carried out was recorded. However, no clear explanation can be given to elucidate this fact.