Brain activity of professional investors signals future stock performance.

A major aspiration of investors is to better forecast stock performance. Interestingly, emerging "neuroforecasting" research suggests that brain activity associated with anticipatory reward relates to market behavior and population-wide preferences, including stock price dynamics. In this study, we extend these findings to professional investors processing comprehensive real-world information on stock investment options while making predictions of long-term stock performance. Using functional MRI, we sampled investors' neural responses to investment cases and assessed whether these responses relate to future performance on the stock market. We found that our sample of investors could not successfully predict future market performance of the investment cases, confirming that stated preferences do not predict the market. Stock metrics of the investment cases were not predictive of future stock performance either. However, as investors processed case information, nucleus accumbens (NAcc) activity was higher for investment cases that ended up overperforming in the market. These findings remained robust, even when controlling for stock metrics and investors' predictions made in the scanner. Cross-validated prediction analysis indicated that NAcc activity could significantly predict future stock performance out-of-sample above chance. Our findings resonate with recent neuroforecasting studies and suggest that brain activity of professional investors may help in forecasting future stock performance.

Neural similarity at temporal lobe and cerebellum predicts out-of-sample preference and recall for video stimuli.

The extent to which brains respond similarly to a specific stimulus, across a small group of individuals, has been previously found to predict out-of-sample aggregate preference for that stimulus. However, the location in the brain where neural similarity predicts out-of-sample preference remains unclear. In this article, we attempt to identify the neural substrates in three functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies. Two fMRI studies (N = 40 and 20), using previously broadcasted TV commercials, show that spatiotemporal neural similarity at temporal lobe and cerebellum predict out-of-sample preference and recall. A follow-up fMRI study (N = 28) with previously unseen movie-trailers replicated the predictive effect of neural similarity. Moreover, neural similarity provided unique information on out-of-sample preference above and beyond in-sample preference. Overall, the findings suggest that neural similarity at temporal lobe and cerebellum - traditionally associated with sensory integration and emotional processing - may reflect the level of engagement with video stimuli.

fMRI activities in the emotional cerebellum: a preference for negative stimuli and goal-directed behavior.

Several studies indicate that the cerebellum might play a role in experiencing and/or controlling emphatic emotions, but it remains to be determined whether there is a distinction between positive and negative emotions, and, if so, which specific parts of the cerebellum are involved in these types of emotions. Here, we visualized activations of the cerebellum and extracerebellar regions using high-field fMRI, while we asked participants to observe and imitate images with pictures of human faces expressing different emotional states or with moving geometric shapes as control. The state of the emotions could be positive (happiness and surprise), negative (anger and disgust), or neutral. The positive emotional faces only evoked mild activations of crus 2 in the cerebellum, whereas the negative emotional faces evoked prominent activations in lobules VI and VIIa in its hemispheres and lobules VIII and IX in the vermis. The cerebellar activations associated with negative emotions occurred concomitantly with activations of mirror neuron domains such as the insula and amygdala. These data suggest that the potential role of the cerebellum in control of emotions may be particularly relevant for goal-directed behavior that is required for observing and reacting to another person's (negative) expressions.

Cocaine craving is associated with electrophysiological brain responses to cocaine-related stimuli.

Several studies show that substance dependence disorders are characterized by an enhanced processing of substance-related stimuli. The present study was designed to examine the association between craving levels and selective processing of drug cues in cocaine-dependent patients using event-related brain potentials (ERPs). In abstinent cocaine-dependent patients and a healthy control group, we studied the late positive potential (LPP) amplitudes elicited by neutral and cocaine-related stimuli. The results show that cocaine-dependent patients have an enhanced electrophysiological response in the late LPP time window to cocaine-related stimuli as compared to controls, suggesting an enhanced processing of these stimuli. Most importantly, a robust association was observed between cocaine craving and LPP amplitude. High craving levels were associated with larger LPP amplitudes at central electrode sites in the right hemisphere. These findings are in line with theories linking motivational aspects and appetitive stimulus processing. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that ERPs are a useful index to assess motivational properties of stimuli in cocaine-dependent patients. These findings suggest that electrophysiological measures may have clinical relevance in substance use disorders.