The geography of climate and the global patterns of species diversity.

Climate's effect on global biodiversity is typically viewed through the lens of temperature, humidity and resulting ecosystem productivity1-6. However, it is not known whether biodiversity depends solely on these climate conditions, or whether the size and fragmentation of these climates are also crucial. Here we shift the common perspective in global biodiversity studies, transitioning from geographic space to a climate-defined multidimensional space. Our findings suggest that larger and more isolated climate conditions tend to harbour higher diversity and species turnover among terrestrial tetrapods, encompassing more than 30,000 species. By considering both the characteristics of climate itself and its geographic attributes, we can explain almost 90% of the variation in global species richness. Half of the explanatory power (45%) may be attributed either to climate itself or to the geography of climate, suggesting a nuanced interplay between them. Our work evolves the conventional idea that larger climate regions, such as the tropics, host more species primarily because of their size7,8. Instead, we underscore the integral roles of both the geographic extent and degree of isolation of climates. This refined understanding presents a more intricate picture of biodiversity distribution, which can guide our approach to biodiversity conservation in an ever-changing world.

Physical constraints on thermoregulation and flight drive morphological evolution in bats.

Body size and shape fundamentally determine organismal energy requirements by modulating heat and mass exchange with the environment and the costs of locomotion, thermoregulation, and maintenance. Ecologists have long used the physical linkage between morphology and energy balance to explain why the body size and shape of many organisms vary across climatic gradients, e.g., why larger endotherms are more common in colder regions. However, few modeling exercises have aimed at investigating this link from first principles. Body size evolution in bats contrasts with the patterns observed in other endotherms, probably because physical constraints on flight limit morphological adaptations. Here, we develop a biophysical model based on heat transfer and aerodynamic principles to investigate energy constraints on morphological evolution in bats. Our biophysical model predicts that the energy costs of thermoregulation and flight, respectively, impose upper and lower limits on the relationship of wing surface area to body mass (S-MR), giving rise to an optimal S-MR at which both energy costs are minimized. A comparative analysis of 278 species of bats supports the model's prediction that S-MR evolves toward an optimal shape and that the strength of selection is higher among species experiencing greater energy demands for thermoregulation in cold climates. Our study suggests that energy costs modulate the mode of morphological evolution in bats­hence shedding light on a long-standing debate over bats' conformity to ecogeographical patterns observed in other mammals­and offers a procedure for investigating complex macroecological patterns from first principles.

Macroecological correlates of Darwinian shortfalls across terrestrial vertebrates.

Most described species have not been explicitly included in phylogenetic trees-a problem named the Darwinian shortfall-owing to a lack of molecular and/or morphological data, thus hampering the explicit incorporation of evolution into large-scale biodiversity analyses. We investigate potential drivers of the Darwinian shortfall in tetrapods, a group in which at least one-third of described species still lack phylogenetic data, thus necessitating the imputation of their evolutionary relationships in fully sampled phylogenies. We show that the number of preserved specimens in scientific collections is the main driver of phylogenetic knowledge accumulation, highlighting the major role of biological collections in unveiling novel biodiversity data and the importance of continued sampling efforts to reduce knowledge gaps. Additionally, large-bodied and wide-ranged species, as well as terrestrial and aquatic amphibians and reptiles, are phylogenetically better known. Future efforts should prioritize phylogenetic research on organisms that are narrow-ranged, small-bodied and underrepresented in scientific collections, such as fossorial species. Addressing the Darwinian shortfall will be imperative for advancing our understanding of evolutionary drivers shaping biodiversity patterns and implementing comprehensive conservation strategies.

Funding as a determinant of Citation Impact in Scientific Papers in different countries.

Several factors influence the citation impact. This paper constructed paths from funding to citation impact on a country basis. Country data came from Incites® (2011-2020). The (2013 to 2018) UNESCO database was used to define investments in Research and Development (R&D). An overall analysis and analyses by clusters formed by investments in R&D were carried out. Countries that invest relatively less in R&D tend to have less investment by businesses and publish fewer documents. Some differences exist in this pattern. For example, countries in the lowest investment group show higher international collaboration and publications in Open Access Journals. This leads to a higher impact but below countries with the highest investments in R&D. The paths from funding to high impact differed by cluster. While international collaboration appeared in several clusters, the % of papers in Q1 (Top) journal quartile, based on citations, was in almost all clusters. More investments in R&D and open access publishing do not necessarily lead to high impact.

Long-term unsustainable patterns of development rather than recent deforestation caused the emergence of Orthocoronavirinae species.

We investigated whether a set of phylogeographical tracked emergent events of Orthocoronavirinae were related to developed, urban and polluted environments worldwide. We explored coronavirus records in response to climate (rainfall parameters), population density, CO2 emission, Human Developmental Index (HDI) and deforestation. We contrasted environmental characteristics from regions with spillovers or encounters of wild Orthocoronavirinae against adjacent areas having best-preserved conditions. We used all complete sequenced CoVs genomes deposited in NCBI and GISAID databases until January 2021. Except for Deltacoronavirus, concentrated in Hong Kong and in birds, the other three genera were scattered all over the planet, beyond the original distribution of the subfamily, and found in humans, mammals, fishes and birds, wild or domestic. Spillovers and presence in wild animals were only reported in developed/densely populated places. We found significantly more occurrences reported in places with higher HDI, CO2 emission, or population density, along with more rainfall and more accentuated seasonality. Orthocoronavirinae occurred in areas with significantly higher human populations, CO2 emissions and deforestation rates than in adjacent locations. Intermediately disturbed ecosystems seemed more vulnerable for Orthocoronavirinae emergence than forested regions in frontiers of deforestation. Sadly, people experiencing poverty in an intensely consumerist society are the most vulnerable.

Too simple models may predict the island rule for the wrong reasons.

Biddick & Burns (2021) proposed a null/neutral model that reproduces the island rule as a product of random drift. We agree that it is unnecessary to assume adaptive processes driving island dwarfing or gigantism, but several flaws make their approach unrealistic and thus unsuitable as a stochastic model for evolutionary size changes.

Profiles not metrics: the case of Brazilian universities.

Public universities, and science in general, in Brazil, are under attack from key persons of the government in interviews and articles published in non-scientific journals. Here we look at bibliography data from international science metric platforms (Scival® and Incites®) and official Brazilian agencies such as CAPES and CNPq to reach some conclusions based on scientific analysis. Brazilian Science has shown a steady improvement in quantity and quality over the last 20 years but has recently suffered (since 2015) under severe financial restrictions. An increase in international collaboration also increased citation impact, reaching almost five times the world average. While the medical and natural sciences show the highest impact and prominence, social sciences and the humanities also have spotlight areas with international excellence. Different research institutions and universities offer a variety of production profiles and impacts. This diagnosis shows the need for universities and research institutes in Brazil and funding agencies to undergo strategic planning for definition of mission/vision, goals to be reached, and areas for priority development. Continued support of public universities by the government is necessary for Brazilian autonomy in science and technology and its full integration in the world scientific community.

Large-scale Degradation of the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin.

The Tocantins-Araguaia Basin is one of the largest river systems in South America, located entirely within Brazilian territory. In the last decades, capital-concentrating activities such as agribusiness, mining, and hydropower promoted extensive changes in land cover, hydrology, and environmental conditions. These changes are jeopardizing the basin's biodiversity and ecosystem services. Threats are escalating as poor environmental policies continue to be formulated, such as environmentally unsustainable hydropower plants, large-scale agriculture for commodity production, and aquaculture with non-native fish. If the current model persists, it will deepen the environmental crisis in the basin, compromising broad conservation goals and social development in the long term. Better policies will require thought and planning to minimize growing threats and ensure the basin's sustainability for future generations.

Phylogenetic niche conservatism and plant diversification in South American subtropical grasslands along multiple climatic dimensions.

Phylogenetic niche conservatism can be investigated at multiple scales on an explicit geographical context. Haplotype-based comparative analyses of lineages occupying the same region, and thus subjected to similar environmental factors, allow decoupling shared evolutionary and ecological patterns, as well as multiple dimensions of adaptive diversification. Here we aimed to assess the role of environmental drivers on diversification of subtropical grassland, based on haplotypic diversity of two plant genera. We sampled two closely related and co-distributed grassland plant genera, Petunia and Calibrachoa, across their entire distribution area. Eigenvectors extracted from pairwise distances based on chloroplast DNA haplotypes were used to fit Phylogenetic Signal-Representation (PSR) curves to estimate evolutionary patterns in 19 bioclimatic variables and altitude. The PSR curves showed that altitude, precipitation, and temperature variables changed at different rates with haplotype differentiation. Altitude and temperature traits evolved under conditions closer to a neutral dynamics, whereas precipitation traits differentiated following more complex models. Our results indicated that the diversification in the two genera was more limited by precipitation conditions. Based on these novel findings, we suggest that future studies should test the possible impact of precipitation variables on the process of ecological differentiation in these genera.

Complete chloroplast genome sequence of Caryocar brasiliense Camb. (Caryocaraceae) and comparative analysis brings new insights into the plastome evolution of Malpighiales.

Caryocar brasiliense (Caryocaraceae) is a Neotropical tree species widely distributed in Brazilian Savannas. This species is very popular in central Brazil mainly by the use of its fruits in the local cuisine, and indeed it is one of the candidates, among Brazilian native plants, for fast track incorporation into cropping systems. Here we sequenced the complete chloroplast genome of C. brasiliense and used the data to access its genomic resources using high-throughput sequencing. The chloroplast exhibits a genome length of 165,793 bp and the typical angiosperm quadripartite structure with two copies of an inverted repeat sequence (IRa and IRb) of 34,902 bp each, separating a small single copy (SSC) region of 11,852 bp and a large single copy (LSC) region of 84,137 bp. The annotation analysis identified 136 genes being 87 protein-coding, eight rRNA and 37 tRNA genes. We identified 49 repetitive DNA elements and 85 microsatellites. A bayesian phylogenetic analysis helped to understand previously unresolved relationships in Malpighiales, placing Caryocaraceae as a separated group in the order, with high supported nodes. This study synthetizes valuable information for further studies allowing a better understanding of evolutionary patterns in the group and providing resources for future breeding programs.

Drivers of Phylogenetic Assemblage Structure of the Furnariides, a Widespread Clade of Lowland Neotropical Birds.

Species co-occurrence in local assemblages is shaped by distinct processes at different spatial and temporal scales. Here we focus on historical explanations and examine the phylogenetic structure of local assemblages of the Furnariides clade (Aves: Passeriformes), assessing the influence of diversification rates on the assembly and species co-occurrence within those assemblages. Using 120 local assemblages across Bolivia and Argentina and a nearly complete phylogeny for the clade, we analyzed assemblage phylogenetic structure, applying a recently developed model (DAMOCLES, or dynamic assembly model of colonization, local extinction, and speciation) accounting for the historical processes of speciation, colonization, and local extinction. We also evaluated how diversification rates determine species co-occurrence. We found that the assembly of Furnariides assemblages can be explained largely by speciation, colonization, and local extinction without invoking current local species interactions. Phylogenetic structure of open habitat assemblages mainly showed clustering, characterized by faster rates of colonization and local extinction than in forest habitats, whereas forest habitat assemblages were congruent with the model's equal rates expectation, thus highlighting the influence of habitat preferences on assembly and co-occurrence patterns. Our results suggest that historical processes are sufficient to explain local assemblage phylogenetic structure, while there is little evidence for species ecological interactions in avian assemblage diversity and composition.

Climatic niche evolution in turtles is characterized by phylogenetic conservatism for both aquatic and terrestrial species.

Understanding how the climatic niche of species evolved has been a topic of high interest in current theoretical and applied macroecological studies. However, little is known regarding how species traits might influence climatic niche evolution. Here, we evaluated patterns of climatic niche evolution in turtles (tortoises and freshwater turtles) and whether species habitat (terrestrial or aquatic) influences these patterns. We used phylogenetic, climatic and distribution data for 261 species to estimate their climatic niches. Then, we compared whether niche overlap between sister species was higher than between random species pairs and evaluated whether niche optima and rates varied between aquatic and terrestrial species. Sister species had higher values of niche overlap than random species pairs, suggesting phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism in turtles. The climatic niche evolution of the group followed an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with different optimum values for aquatic and terrestrial species, but we did not find consistent evidence of differences in their rates of climatic niche evolution. We conclude that phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism occurs among turtle species. Furthermore, terrestrial and aquatic species occupy different climatic niches but these seem to have evolved at similar evolutionary rates, reinforcing the importance of habitat in understanding species climatic niches and their evolution.

Quantitative genetics of body size evolution on islands: an individual-based simulation approach.

According to the island rule, small-bodied vertebrates will tend to evolve larger body size on islands, whereas the opposite happens to large-bodied species. This controversial pattern has been studied at the macroecological and biogeographical scales, but new developments in quantitative evolutionary genetics now allow studying the island rule from a mechanistic perspective. Here, we develop a simulation approach based on an individual-based model to model body size change on islands as a progressive adaptation to a moving optimum, determined by density-dependent population dynamics. We applied the model to evaluate body size differentiation in the pigmy extinct hominin Homo floresiensis, showing that dwarfing may have occurred in only about 360 generations (95% CI ranging from 150 to 675 generations). This result agrees with reports suggesting rapid dwarfing of large mammals on islands, as well as with the recent discovery that small-sized hominins lived in Flores as early as 700 kyr ago. Our simulations illustrate the power of analysing ecological and evolutionary patterns from an explicit quantitative genetics perspective.

Analyzing community-weighted trait means across environmental gradients: should phylogeny stay or should it go?

Functional traits mediate ecological responses of organisms to the environment, determining community structure. Community-weighted trait means (CWM) are often used to characterize communities by combining information on species traits and distribution. Relating CWM variation to environmental gradients allows for evaluating species sorting across the metacommunity, either based on correlation tests or ordinary least squares (OLS) models. Yet, it is not clear if phylogenetic signal in both traits and species distribution affect those analyses. On one hand, phylogenetic signal might indicate niche conservatism along clade evolution, reinforcing the environmental signal in trait assembly patterns. On the other hand, it might introduce phylogenetic autocorrelation to mean trait variation among communities. Under this latter scenario, phylogenetic signal might inflate type I error in analysis relating CWM variation to environmental gradients. We explore multiple ways phylogenetic history may influence analysis relating CWM to environmental gradients. We propose the concept of neutral trait diffusion, which predicts that for a functional trait x, CWM variation among local communities does not deviate from the expectation that x evolved according to a neutral evolutionary process. Based on this framework we introduce a graphical tool called neutral trait diffusion representation (NTDR) that allows for the evaluation of whether it is necessary to carry out phylogenetic correction in the trait prior to analyzing the association between CWM and environmental gradients. We illustrate the NTDR approach using simulated traits, phylogenies and metacommunities. We show that even under moderate phylogenetic signal in both the trait used to define CWM and species distribution across communities, OLS models relating CWM variation to environmental gradients lead to inflated type I error when testing the null hypothesis of no association between CWM and environmental gradient. To overcome this issue, we propose a phylogenetic correction for OLS models and evaluate its statistical performance (type I error and power). Phylogeny-corrected OLS models successfully control for type I error in analysis relating CWM variation to environmental gradients but may show decreased power. Combining the exploratory tool of NTDR and phylogenetic correction in traits, when necessary, guarantees more precise inferences about the environmental forces driving trait-mediated species sorting across metacommunities.

Ecological drivers of plant genetic diversity at the southern edge of geographical distributions: Forestal vines in a temperate region.

The Tropical Niche Conservatism hypothesis is one of the most relevant theories to explain why tropical diversity is high, although the mechanisms underlying this hypothesis require further clarification. A possible research avenue to address the underlying mechanisms includes determining population-level processes associated with such a hypothesis, in particular by trying to identify how adaptation may occur in extreme niche conditions at the edges of species ranges. However, the determinants of molecular diversity at the edges of geographical distributions of tropical taxa are still poorly known. Here we assessed which environmental variables determine diversity in nuclear and plastid genetic markers for populations of four Passiflora species in the southern limit of their geographical distributions. Climatic factors can drive genetic diversity, and their importance varies according to the marker. The primary predictors are variables representing higher temperatures during cold periods of the year and higher precipitation during dry periods. We concluded that, although these species are present in colder areas at the edge of their range, Tropical Niche Conservatism acts as a restraining force on genetic diversity in southern populations of Passiflora.

Island Rule, quantitative genetics and brain-body size evolution in Homo floresiensis.

Colonization of islands often activate a complex chain of adaptive events that, over a relatively short evolutionary time, may drive strong shifts in body size, a pattern known as the Island Rule. It is arguably difficult to perform a direct analysis of the natural selection forces behind such a change in body size. Here, we used quantitative evolutionary genetic models, coupled with simulations and pattern-oriented modelling, to analyse the evolution of brain and body size in Homo floresiensis, a diminutive hominin species that appeared around 700 kya and survived up to relatively recent times (60-90 kya) on Flores Island, Indonesia. The hypothesis of neutral evolution was rejected in 97% of the simulations, and estimated selection gradients are within the range found in living natural populations. We showed that insularity may have triggered slightly different evolutionary trajectories for body and brain size, which means explaining the exceedingly small cranial volume of H. floresiensis requires additional selective forces acting on brain size alone. Our analyses also support previous conclusions that H. floresiensis may be most likely derived from an early Indonesian H. erectus, which is coherent with currently accepted biogeographical scenario for Homo expansion out of Africa.

Ecological opportunities, habitat, and past climatic fluctuations influenced the diversification of modern turtles.

Habitat may be viewed as an important life history component potentially related to diversification patterns. However, differences in diversification rates between aquatic and terrestrial realms are still poorly explored. Testudines is a group distributed worldwide that lives in aquatic and terrestrial environments, but until now no-one has evaluated the diversification history of the group as a whole. We aim here to investigate the diversification history of turtles and to test if habitat influenced speciation rate in these animals. We reconstructed the phylogeny of the modern species of chelonians and estimated node divergence dates using molecular markers and a Bayesian approach. Then, we used Bayesian Analyses of Macroevolutionary Mixtures to evaluate the diversification history of turtles and evaluate the effect of habitat on this pattern. Our reconstructed phylogeny covered 300 species (87% of the total diversity of the group). We found that the emydid subfamily Deirochelyinae, which forms the turtle hotspot in south-eastern United States, had an increase in its speciation rate, and that Galapagos tortoises had similar increases. Current speciation rates are lower in terrestrial turtles, contradicting studies supporting the idea terrestrial animals diversify more than aquatic species. Our results suggest that habitat, ecological opportunities, island invasions, and climatic factors are important drivers of diversification in modern turtles and reinforce the importance of habitat as a diversification driver.

Could refuge theory and rivers acting as barriers explain the genetic variability distribution in the Atlantic Forest?

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most species-rich ecoregions in the world. The historical origins of this richness and the evolutionary processes that produced diversification and promoted speciation in this ecosystem remain poorly understood. In this context, focusing on Passiflora contracta, an endemic species from the Atlantic Forest distributed exclusively at sea level along forest edges, this study aimed to characterize the patterns of genetic variability and explore two hypotheses that attempt to explain the possible causes of the genetic diversity in this region: the refuge and riverine barrier theories. We employed Bayesian methods combined with niche modeling to identify genetically homogeneous groups, to determine the diversification age, and identify long-term climate stability areas to species survival. The analyses were performed using molecular markers from nuclear and plastid genomes, with samples collected throughout the entire geographic distribution of the species, and comparisons with congeners species. The results indicated that populations were genetically structured and provided evidence of demographic stability. The molecular markers indicated the existence of a clear structure and the presence of five homogeneous groups. Interestingly, the separation of the groups coincides with the geographical locations of local rivers, corroborating the hypothesis of rivers acting as barriers to gene flow in this species. The highest levels of genetic diversity and the areas identified as having long-term climate stability were found in the same region reported for other species as a possible refuge area during the climatic changes of the Quaternary.

Geographically weighted regression as a generalized Wombling to detect barriers to gene flow.

Barriers to gene flow play an important role in structuring populations, especially in human-modified landscapes, and several methods have been proposed to detect such barriers. However, most applications of these methods require a relative large number of individuals or populations distributed in space, connected by vertices from Delaunay or Gabriel networks. Here we show, using both simulated and empirical data, a new application of geographically weighted regression (GWR) to detect such barriers, modeling the genetic variation as a "local" linear function of geographic coordinates (latitude and longitude). In the GWR, standard regression statistics, such as R(2) and slopes, are estimated for each sampling unit and thus are mapped. Peaks in these local statistics are then expected close to the barriers if genetic discontinuities exist, capturing a higher rate of population differentiation among neighboring populations. Isolation-by-Distance simulations on a longitudinally warped lattice revealed that higher local slopes from GWR coincide with the barrier detected with Monmonier algorithm. Even with a relatively small effect of the barrier, the power of local GWR in detecting the east-west barriers was higher than 95 %. We also analyzed empirical data of genetic differentiation among tree populations of Dipteryx alata and Eugenia dysenterica Brazilian Cerrado. GWR was applied to the principal coordinate of the pairwise FST matrix based on microsatellite loci. In both simulated and empirical data, the GWR results were consistent with discontinuities detected by Monmonier algorithm, as well as with previous explanations for the spatial patterns of genetic differentiation for the two species. Our analyses reveal how this new application of GWR can viewed as a generalized Wombling in a continuous space and be a useful approach to detect barriers and discontinuities to gene flow.

Differential effects of temperature change and human impact on European Late Quaternary mammalian extinctions.

Species that inhabited Europe during the Late Quaternary were impacted by temperature changes and early humans, resulting in the disappearance of half of the European large mammals. However, quantifying the relative importance that each factor had in the extinction risk of species has been challenging, mostly due to the spatio-temporal biases of fossil records, which complicate the calibration of realistic and accurate ecological niche modeling. Here, we overcome this problem by using ecotypes, and not real species, to run our models. We created 40 ecotypes with different temperature requirements (mean temperature from -20 °C to 25 °C and temperature range from 10 °C to 40 °C) and used them to quantify the effect of climate change and human impact. Our results show that cold-adapted ecotypes would have been highly affected by past temperature changes in Europe, whereas temperate and warm-adapted ecotypes would have been positively affected by temperature change. Human impact affected all ecotypes negatively, and temperate ecotypes suffered the greatest impacts. Based on these results, the extinction of cold-adapted species like Mammuthus primigenius may be related to temperature change, while the extinction of temperate species, like Crocuta crocuta, may be related to human impact. Our results suggest that temperature change and human impact affected different ecotypes in distinct ways, and that the interaction of both impacts may have shaped species extinctions in Europe.