How Modelers Model: the Overlooked Social and Human Dimensions in Model Intercomparison Studies.

There is a growing realization that the complexity of model ensemble studies depends not only on the models used but also on the experience and approach used by modelers to calibrate and validate results, which remain a source of uncertainty. Here, we applied a multi-criteria decision-making method to investigate the rationale applied by modelers in a model ensemble study where 12 process-based different biogeochemical model types were compared across five successive calibration stages. The modelers shared a common level of agreement about the importance of the variables used to initialize their models for calibration. However, we found inconsistency among modelers when judging the importance of input variables across different calibration stages. The level of subjective weighting attributed by modelers to calibration data decreased sequentially as the extent and number of variables provided increased. In this context, the perceived importance attributed to variables such as the fertilization rate, irrigation regime, soil texture, pH, and initial levels of soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks was statistically different when classified according to model types. The importance attributed to input variables such as experimental duration, gross primary production, and net ecosystem exchange varied significantly according to the length of the modeler's experience. We argue that the gradual access to input data across the five calibration stages negatively influenced the consistency of the interpretations made by the modelers, with cognitive bias in "trial-and-error" calibration routines. Our study highlights that overlooking human and social attributes is critical in the outcomes of modeling and model intercomparison studies. While complexity of the processes captured in the model algorithms and parameterization is important, we contend that (1) the modeler's assumptions on the extent to which parameters should be altered and (2) modeler perceptions of the importance of model parameters are just as critical in obtaining a quality model calibration as numerical or analytical details.

Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.

Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi-stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%-40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2-4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N2 O emissions (N2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N2 O emissions at field scale is discussed.

Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one.

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

Impact of rising temperatures on historical wheat yield, phenology, and grain size in Catalonia.

Introduction: Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, impacting crop yields and necessitating adaptive strategies in breeding programs. This study investigates the genetic yield progress of wheat varieties in Catalonia, Spain, from 2007 to 2021, and examines the relationship between genetic yield and climate-related factors, such as temperature. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for ensuring the resilience of wheat crops in the face of changing environmental conditions. Methods: Genetic yield progress was assessed using a linear regression function, comparing the average yield changes of newly released wheat varieties to benchmark varieties. Additionally, a quadratic function was employed to model genetic yield progress in winter wheat (WW). The study also analyzed correlations between genetic yield (GY) and normalized values of hectoliter weight (HLW) and the number of grains (NG) for both spring wheat (SW) and WW. Weather data were used to confirm climate change impacts on temperature and its effects on wheat growth and development. Results: The study found that genetic yield was stagnant for SW but increased linearly by 1.31% per year for WW. However, the quadratic function indicated a possible plateau in WW genetic yield progress in recent years. Positive correlations were observed between GY and normalized values of HLW and NG for both SW and WW. Climate change was evident in Catalonia, with temperatures increasing at a rate of 0.050 °C per year. This rise in temperature had detrimental effects on days to heading (DH) and HLW, with reductions observed in both SW and WW for each °C increase in annual minimum and average temperature. Discussion: The findings highlighted the urgent need to address the impact of climate change on wheat cultivation. The stagnation of genetic yield in SW and the potential plateau in WW genetic yield progress call for adaptive measures. Breeding programs should prioritize phenological adjustments, particularly sowing date optimization, to align with the most favorable months of the year. Moreover, efforts should be made to enhance HLW and the number of grains per unit area in new wheat varieties to counteract the negative effects of rising temperatures. This research underscores the importance of ongoing monitoring and adaptation in agricultural practices to ensure yield resilience in the context of a changing climate.

Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.102.

Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.102.

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

Author Correction: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

Nature Plants 3, 17102 (2017); published online 17 July 2017; corrected online 27 September 2017.

A Comparative Nitrogen Balance and Productivity Analysis of Legume and Non-legume Supported Cropping Systems: The Potential Role of Biological Nitrogen Fixation.

The potential of biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) to provide sufficient N for production has encouraged re-appraisal of cropping systems that deploy legumes. It has been argued that legume-derived N can maintain productivity as an alternative to the application of mineral fertilizer, although few studies have systematically evaluated the effect of optimizing the balance between legumes and non N-fixing crops to optimize production. In addition, the shortage, or even absence in some regions, of measurements of BNF in crops and forages severely limits the ability to design and evaluate new legume-based agroecosystems. To provide an indication of the magnitude of BNF in European agriculture, a soil-surface N-balance approach was applied to historical data from 8 experimental cropping systems that compared legume and non-legume crop types (e.g., grains, forages and intercrops) across pedoclimatic regions of Europe. Mean BNF for different legume types ranged from 32 to 115 kg ha-1 annually. Output in terms of total biomass (grain, forage, etc.) was 30% greater in non-legumes, which used N to produce dry matter more efficiently than legumes, whereas output of N was greater from legumes. When examined over the crop sequence, the contribution of BNF to the N-balance increased to reach a maximum when the legume fraction was around 0.5 (legume crops were present in half the years). BNF was lower when the legume fraction increased to 0.6-0.8, not because of any feature of the legume, but because the cropping systems in this range were dominated by mixtures of legume and non-legume forages to which inorganic N as fertilizer was normally applied. Forage (e.g., grass and clover), as opposed to grain crops in this range maintained high outputs of biomass and N. In conclusion, BNF through grain and forage legumes has the potential to generate major benefit in terms of reducing or dispensing with the need for mineral N without loss of total output.

Continuous measurement of stem-diameter growth response of Pinus pinea seedlings mycorrhizal with Rhizopogon roseolus and submitted to two water regimes.

Linear variable differential transformer (LVDT) sensors were used to detect continuous diameter growth responses of Pinus pinea (stone pine) seedlings inoculated with the ectomycorrhizal fungus Rhizopogon roseolus. Colonised and non-colonised seedlings provided with sensors were submitted to different water regimes in two consecutive experiments established in a controlled-temperature greenhouse module (cycle 1), and in an adjacent module without temperature control (cycle 2). Under regular irrigation, colonised seedlings showed significantly higher growth than non-colonised seedlings. Water-stressed seedlings showed no benefit from inoculation in terms of growth. Also, seedlings with a high colonisation level recovered more slowly from water stress than control seedlings. A significant positive relationship between maximum daily shrinkage (amplitude of the daily stem contraction) and global radiation was observed only in the first water-stress period in cycle 1 and in regularly irrigated seedlings in both cycles. However, no differential responses due to inoculation were observed. The mycorrhizal colonisation of the seedlings at the end of the experiment was related with the initial colonisation level. Mycorrhizal colonisation by R. roseolus in old roots was maintained at significantly higher levels in seedlings which had an initial colonisation level >50% than in seedlings with <50% initial colonisation. Also, more newly formed roots became colonised in seedlings which had an initial colonisation level >50% than in seedlings with an initial colonisation <50%, which had almost no new root colonisation. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that LVDT sensors can be used to detect a differential response of plants according to water supply, mycorrhizal status and, in some cases, to their colonisation level. The results are discussed in relation to the predictive possibilities of the method for the selection of efficient mycorrhizal fungi for the promotion of plant growth.