Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change.

Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding the future impacts on ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals' natural adaptive capacity to such change. Here we estimate how the ability of symbionts to evolve tolerance to heat stress, or for coral hosts to shuffle to favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling, both individually and when combined, favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production (NCCP) under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19%-35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive NCCP by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP. Without symbiont adaptive capacity, the number of coral reefs with positive NCCP drops to 9%-13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive NCPP of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5).

Macroalgae exhibit diverse responses to human disturbances on coral reefs.

Scientists and managers rely on indicator taxa such as coral and macroalgal cover to evaluate the effects of human disturbance on coral reefs, often assuming a universally positive relationship between local human disturbance and macroalgae. Despite evidence that macroalgae respond to local stressors in diverse ways, there have been few efforts to evaluate relationships between specific macroalgae taxa and local human-driven disturbance. Using genus-level monitoring data from 1205 sites in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, we assess whether macroalgae percent cover correlates with local human disturbance while accounting for factors that could obscure or confound relationships. Assessing macroalgae at genus level revealed that no genera were positively correlated with all human disturbance metrics. Instead, we found relationships between the division or genera of algae and specific human disturbances that were not detectable when pooling taxa into a single functional category, which is common to many analyses. The convention to use percent cover of macroalgae as an indication of local human disturbance therefore likely obscures signatures of local anthropogenic threats to reefs. Our limited understanding of relationships between human disturbance, macroalgae taxa, and their responses to human disturbances impedes the ability to diagnose and respond appropriately to these threats.

Cloudiness reduces the bleaching response of coral reefs exposed to heat stress.

Climate change and warming ocean temperatures are a threat to coral reef ecosystems. Since the 1980s, there has been an increase in mass coral bleaching and associated coral mortality due to more frequent and severe thermal stress. Although most research has focused on the role of temperature, coral bleaching is a product of the interacting effects of temperature and other environmental variables such as solar radiation. High light exacerbates the effects of thermal stress on corals, whereas reductions in light can reduce sensitivity to thermal stress. Here, we use an updated global dataset of coral bleaching observations (n = 35,769) from 1985 to 2017 and satellite-derived datasets of SST and clouds to examine for the first time at a global scale the influence of cloudiness on the likelihood of bleaching from thermal stress. We find that among coral reefs exposed to severe bleaching-level heat stress (Degree Heating Weeks >8°Cˑweek), bleaching severity is inversely correlated with the interaction of heat stress and cloud fraction anomalies (p < 0.05), such that higher cloudiness implies reduced bleaching response. A Random Forest model analysis employing different set of environmental variables shows that a model employing Degree Heating Weeks and the 30-day cloud fraction anomaly most accurately predicts bleaching severity (Accuracy = 0.834; Cohen's Kappa = 0.769). Based on these results and global warm-season cloudiness patterns, we develop a 'cloudy refugia' index which identifies the central equatorial Pacific and French Polynesia as regions where cloudiness is most likely to protect corals from bleaching. Our findings suggest that incorporating cloudiness into prediction models can help delineate bleaching responses and identify reefs which may be more resilient to climate change.

A carbon footprint study of the Canadian medical residency interview tour.

BACKGROUND: Each spring, thousands of Canadian medical students travel across the country to interview for residency positions, a process known as the CaRMS tour. Despite the large scale of travel, the CaRMS tour has received little environmental scrutiny. PURPOSE: To estimate the national carbon footprint of flights associated with the CaRMS tour, as well as reductions in emissions achievable by transitioning to alternative models. METHODS: We developed a three-question online commuter survey to collect the unique travel itineraries of applicants in the 2020 CaRMS tour. We calculated the emissions associated with all flights and modelled expected emissions for two alternative in-person interview models, and two virtual interview models. RESULTS: We collected 960 responses out of 2943 applicants across all 17 Canadian medical schools. We calculated the carbon footprint of flights for the 2020 CaRMS as 4239 tCO2e (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents), averaging 1.44 tCO2e per applicant. The average applicant's tour emissions represent 35.1% of the average Canadian's annual household carbon footprint, and the emissions of 26.7% of respondents exceeded their entire annual '2050 carbon budget.' Centralized in-person interviews could reduce emissions by 13.7% to 74.7%, and virtual interviews by at least 98.4% to 99.9%. CONCLUSIONS: Mandatory in-person residency interviews in Canada contribute significant emissions and reflect a culture of emissions-intensive practices. Considerable decarbonization of the CaRMS tour is possible, and transitioning to virtual interviews could eliminate the footprint almost entirely.

Global inequities between polluters and the polluted: climate change impacts on coral reefs.

For many ecosystem services, it remains uncertain whether the impacts of climate change will be mostly negative or positive and how these changes will be geographically distributed. These unknowns hamper the identification of regional winners and losers, which can influence debate over climate policy. Here, we use coral reefs to explore the spatial variability of climate stress by modelling the ecological impacts of rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification, two important coral stressors associated with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We then combine these results with national per capita emissions to quantify inequities arising from the distribution of cause (CO2 emissions) and effect (stress upon reefs) among coral reef countries. We find pollution and coral stress are spatially decoupled, creating substantial inequity of impacts as a function of emissions. We then consider the implications of such inequity for international climate policy. Targets for GHG reductions are likely to be tied to a country's emissions. Yet within a given level of GHG emissions, our analysis reveals that some countries experience relatively high levels of impact and will likely experience greater financial cost in terms of lost ecosystem productivity and more extensive adaptation measures. We suggest countries so disadvantaged be given access to international adaptation funds proportionate with impacts to their ecosystem. We raise the idea that funds could be more equitably allocated by formally including a metric of equity within a vulnerability framework.

Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching.

Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress.

Increase in the extent of mass coral bleaching over the past half-century, based on an updated global database.

The recurrence of mass coral bleaching and associated coral mortality in the past few decades have raised questions about the future of coral reef ecosystems. Although coral bleaching is well studied, our understanding of the spatial extent of bleaching events continues to be limited by geographical biases in data collection. To address this gap, we updated a previous observational database and spatially modelled the probability of past bleaching occurrence. First, an existing raw observational database was updated to cover the 1963-2017 period using searches of the academic and grey literature and outreach to coral reef monitoring organizations. Then, in order to provide spatially-explicit global coverage, we employed indicator kriging to spatially model the probability of bleaching occurrence each year from 1985 through 2017 at 0.05° x 0.05° lat-long resolution. The updated raw database has 37,774 observations, including 22,650 positive bleaching reports, three times that in the previous version. The spatial interpolation suggests that 71% of the world's coral reefs likely (>66% probability) experienced bleaching at least once during the 1985 and 2017 period. The mean probability of bleaching across all reefs globally was 29-45% in the most severe bleaching years of 1998, 2005, 2010 and 2016. Modelled bleaching probabilities were positively related with annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks (DHW), a measure of thermal stress, across all years (p<0.001), and in each global bleaching event (p<0.01). In addition, the annual maximum DHW of reef cells that very likely (>90% probability) experienced bleaching increased over time at three times the rate of all reef cells, suggesting a possible increase in reef thermal tolerance. The raw and spatially interpolated databases can be used by other researchers to enhance real-time predictions, calibrate models for future projections, and assess the change in coral reef response to thermal stress over time.

Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change.

Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs.

An evaluation of the effect of recent temperature variability on the prediction of coral bleaching events.

Over the past 30 years, warm thermal disturbances have become commonplace on coral reefs worldwide. These periods of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) can lead to coral bleaching, a breakdown of the symbiosis between the host coral and symbiotic dinoflagellates which reside in coral tissue. The onset of bleaching is typically predicted to occur when the SST exceeds a local climatological maximum by 1 degrees C for a month or more. However, recent evidence suggests that the threshold at which bleaching occurs may depend on thermal history. This study uses global SST data sets (HadISST and NOAA AVHRR) and mass coral bleaching reports (from Reefbase) to examine the effect of historical SST variability on the accuracy of bleaching prediction. Two variability-based bleaching prediction methods are developed from global analysis of seasonal and interannual SST variability. The first method employs a local bleaching threshold derived from the historical variability in maximum annual SST to account for spatial variability in past thermal disturbance frequency. The second method uses a different formula to estimate the local climatological maximum to account for the low seasonality of SST in the tropics. The new prediction methods are tested against the common globally fixed threshold method using the observed bleaching reports. The results find that estimating the bleaching threshold from local historical SST variability delivers the highest predictive power, but also a higher rate of Type I errors. The second method has the lowest predictive power globally, though regional analysis suggests that it may be applicable in equatorial regions. The historical data analysis suggests that the bleaching threshold may have appeared to be constant globally because the magnitude of interannual variability in maximum SST is similar for many of the world's coral reef ecosystems. For example, the results show that a SST anomaly of 1 degrees C is equivalent to 1.73-2.94 standard deviations of the maximum monthly SST for two-thirds of the world's coral reefs. Coral reefs in the few regions that experience anomalously high interannual SST variability like the equatorial Pacific could prove critical to understanding how coral communities acclimate or adapt to frequent and/or severe thermal disturbances.

Corn-based ethanol production compromises goal of reducing nitrogen export by the Mississippi River.

Corn cultivation in the United States is expected to increase to meet demand for ethanol. Nitrogen leaching from fertilized corn fields to the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River system is a primary cause of the bottom-water hypoxia that develops on the continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico each summer. In this study, we combine agricultural land use scenarios with physically based models of terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen to examine the effect of present and future expansion of corn-based ethanol production on nitrogen export by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers to the Gulf of Mexico. The results show that the increase in corn cultivation required to meet the goal of 15-36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by the year 2022 suggested by a recent U.S. Senate energy policy would increase the annual average flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers by 10-34%. Generating 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol by the year 2022 will increase the odds that annual DIN export exceeds the target set for reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico to >95%. Examination of extreme mitigation options shows that expanding corn-based ethanol production would make the already difficult challenges of reducing nitrogen export to the Gulf of Mexico and the extent of hypoxia practically impossible without large shifts in food production and agricultural management.