RESUMO
Objective of the study--to forecast morbidity (of respiratory diseases) among adolescents via mathematic modelling during primary exploitation of new aluminium production (exemplified by Taishet city). Incidence during 2003-2011 of all diseases in the adolescents equalled 1129,1 per thousand, of respiratory diseases--627,4 per thousand. The mathematic model was designed to reveal role of environmental hazards in morbidity formation. According to medium-term forecast results, launching the aluminium production plant in East Siberia in 3 years will increase by 67% the morbidity with respiratory diseases in the adolescents.
Assuntos
Alumínio/toxicidade , Exposição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumopatias/epidemiologia , Modelos Teóricos , Adolescente , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Previsões , Humanos , Incidência , Pneumopatias/induzido quimicamente , Metalurgia/estatística & dados numéricos , Sibéria/epidemiologia , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
Soil contamination with heavy metals, arsenic, and their impact on human health continues to be one of the most pressing problems. The results of studies performed in various industrial centers of the Irkutsk region are presented. Toxic substances are found to be accumulated in soils and biosubstrates of the children population.