Determinants of lipid clinic referral and attendance in a multi-ethnic adult population in south London: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Primary dyslipidaemias, including familial hypercholesterolaemia, are underdiagnosed genetic disorders that substantially increase risk for premature coronary artery disease in adults. Early identification of primary dyslipidaemias via lipid clinic referral optimises patient management and enables cascade screening of relatives. Improving the identification of primary dyslipidaemias, and understanding disparities in ascertainment and management, is an NHS priority. We aimed to assess determinants of lipid clinic referral or attendance (LCR) in ethnically diverse adults. METHODS: We did a retrospective cross-sectional study using the Lambeth DataNet containing anonymised data from 41 general practitioner (GP) practices in south London. We looked at referral data for adult patients aged 18 years and older from Jan 1, 1995, until May 14, 2018. LCR was the main outcome. We used sequential multilevel logistic regression models adjusted for practice effects to estimate the odds of LCR assessed across six ethnic groups (reference group White) and patient-level factors (demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle, comorbidities, total cholesterol [TC] >7·5mmol/L, statin prescription, and practice factors). The study was approved by NHS South East London Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and NHS Lambeth CCG. FINDINGS: 780 (0·23%) of 332 357 adult patients were coded as referred (n=538) or seen (n=252) in a lipid clinic. 164 487 (46·49%) were women (appendix). The fully adjusted model for odds of LCR showed the following significant associations for age (odds ratio [OR] 0·96, 95% CI 0·96-0·97, p<0·001); Black, African, Caribbean, or Black-British ethnicity (0·67, 0·53-0·84, p=0·001); ex-smoker status (1·29, 1·05-1·57, p=0·014); TC higher than 7·5 mmol/L (12·18, 9·60-15·45, p<0·001); statin prescription (14·01, 10·85-18·10, p<0·001); diabetes (0·72, 0·58-0·91, p=0·005); high-frequency GP attendance at seven or more GP consultations in the past year (1·49, 1·21-1·84, p<0·001); high GP-density (0·5-0·99 full-time equivalent GPs per 1000 patients; 2·70, 1·23-5·92, p=0·013). Sensitivity analyses for LCR restricted to familial hypercholesterolaemia-coded patients (n=581) found associations with TC higher than 7·5 mmol/L (4·26, 1·89-9·62, p<0·001), statin prescription (16·96, 2·19-131·36, p=0·007), and high GP-density (5·73, 1·27-25·93, p=0·023), with no significant associations with ethnicity. The relative contribution of GP practices to LCR was 6·32% of the total variance. There were no significant interactions between ethnicity and deprivation, age, or obesity. INTERPRETATION: While interpretation is limited by the accuracy and completeness of coded records, the study showed factors associated with a higher likelihood of LCR included individuals recorded as having TC higher than 7·5 mmol/L, statin prescription, ex-smoker status, high-frequency GP attendance, and registration at a GP practice with 0·5-0·99 GP density. Patients with increasing age; Black, African, Caribbean, or Black-British ethnicity patients; and patients with diabetes had lower odds of LCR. Finally, the difference in odds of LCR between Black and White patients highlights potential health inequalities. FUNDING: NHS Race & Health Observatory.

Factors affecting the delivery of community-based salon interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease and breast cancer among ethnically diverse women in South London: a concept-mapping approach.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, women from ethnically diverse and socioeconomically deprived communities are at increased risk of underdiagnosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and breast cancer. Promoting CVD prevention and awareness of breast cancer screening via community salons and primary health care partnerships can improve uptake of screening services and early detection. METHODS: Concept mapping is a multistage mixed methods participatory approach comprised of six stages: preparation, brainstorming, structuring of statements, representing statements, interpretation and utilisation of maps using Group wisdom software. A target of 20 salons, excluding male-only salons were approached. Salons included Salons included hairdressing or hairdressing and beauty salons. Purposeful and convenience sampling (online and face to face) among UK salons (hair and beauty) was conducted. Participants were given a focus prompt "What would be some factors that can influence the ability of salons to deliver this service?" and required to generate statements, which were sorted into categories based on similarity and rated for importance and feasibility. Concept maps using multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analyses were produced. FINDINGS: Of 35 participants invited, 25 (71%) consented and agreed to take part in concept mapping. Reported ages were 26-35 years (n=5, 20%), 36-45 years (n=12, 48%), 46-55 years (n=3, 12%), 56-65 years (n=5, 20%), and no age reported (n=10, 40%). Around 36% (n=9) of participants were from non-White ethnic groups, with 12% (n=3) being male and 88% (n=22) female. Seven clusters emerged. Salon staff capabilities and capacities and engaging in health conversations in community salons scored average bridging values of 0·09 and 0·2 respectively, indicating good cluster homogeneity (similar meaning statements were closely sorted). Facilitating health-care access with GP practices was rated highly important to effectively promote the intervention. Engaging in health conversations in community salons and salon incentives for participation were examples of factors that were highly feasible to address. The r correlation coefficient was 0·68 between importance and feasibility to address factors affecting community health interventions. INTERPRETATION: Salons are well positioned to support health promotion interventions. Actionable priorities were identified for a salon-GP surgery partnership to promote CVD prevention through lifestyle changes and health check uptake, raising breast cancer screening awareness and address issue of equity. FUNDING: National Institute of Health and Care Research (NIHR), Research for Patient Benefit (RfPB) Programme NIHR202769.

Ethnic inequalities in the impact of COVID-19 on primary care consultations: a time series analysis of 460,084 individuals with multimorbidity in South London.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused rapid changes in primary care delivery in the UK, with concerns that certain groups of the population may have faced increased barriers to access. This study assesses the impact of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic on primary care consultations for individuals with multimorbidity and identifies ethnic inequalities. METHODS: A longitudinal study based on monthly data from primary care health records of 460,084 patients aged ≥18 years from 41 GP practices in South London, from February 2018 to March 2021. Descriptive analysis and interrupted time series (ITS) models were used to analyse the effect of the pandemic on primary care consultations for people with multimorbidity and to identify if the effect varied by ethnic groups and consultation type. RESULTS: Individuals with multimorbidity experienced a smaller initial fall in trend at the start of the pandemic. Their primary care consultation rates remained stable (879 (95% CI 869-890) per 1000 patients in February to 882 (870-894) March 2020), compared with a 7% decline among people without multimorbidity (223 consultations (95% CI 221-226) to 208 (205-210)). The gap in consultations between the two groups reduced after July 2020. The effect among individuals with multimorbidity varied by ethnic group. Ethnic minority groups experienced a slightly larger fall at the start of the pandemic. Individuals of Black, Asian, and Other ethnic backgrounds also switched from face-to-face to telephone at a higher rate than other ethnic groups. The largest fall in face-to-face consultations was observed among people from Asian backgrounds (their consultation rates declined from 676 (659-693) in February to 348 (338-359) in April 2020), which may have disproportionately affected their quality of care. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected primary care utilisation in patients with multimorbidity. While there is evidence of a successful needs-based prioritisation of multimorbidity patients within primary care at the start of the pandemic, inequalities among ethnic minority groups were found. Strengthening disease management for these groups may be necessary to control widening inequalities in future health outcomes.

Cost outcomes of potentially inappropriate prescribing in middle-aged adults: A Delphi consensus and cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) is common in older adults and is associated with increased medication costs and costs of associated adverse drug events. PIP also affects almost 1/5 of middle-aged adults (45-64 y), as defined by the PRescribing Optimally in Middle-aged People's Treatments (PROMPT) criteria. However, there has been little research on PIP medication costs within this age group. AIMS: Calculate the medication costs of PIP for middle-aged adults according to the 22 PROMPT criteria and compare with the cost of consensus-validated, evidence-based (adequate) alternative prescribing scenarios. METHODS: Adequate alternatives to the 22 PROMPT criteria were created via literature review. A Delphi consensus panel of experts was recruited (n = 16), supported by a patient and public involvement group, to achieve consensus on the alternatives. A retrospective repeated cross-sectional study from 2014 to 2019 was then conducted utilising pseudonymised primary care data from Lambeth DataNet in South London (41 general practices, n = 1 185 335, using Lambeth DataNet May 2020 extract) to calculate the cost of PIP. RESULTS: The cross-sectional study included 55 880 patients. The total PIP cost was £2.79 million, with adequate alternative prescribing costing £2.74 million (cost savings of £51 278). Duplicate drug classes was the most costly criterion for both PIP and alternative prescribing. CONCLUSION: This study calculated the medication costs of PIP and created alternative prescribing scenarios for the 22 PROMPT criteria. There is no substantial cost difference between adequate prescribing vs. PIP. Future studies should investigate the wider health economic costs of alternative prescribing, such as reducing hospital admissions.

Determinants of long-term opioid prescribing in an urban population: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Opioid prescribing has more than doubled in the UK between 1998 and 2016. Potential adverse health implications include dependency, falls and increased health expenditure. AIM: To describe the predictors of long-term opioid prescribing (LTOP) (≥3 opioid prescriptions in a 90-day period). DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective cross-sectional study in 41 general practices in South London. METHOD: Multi-level multivariable logistic regression to investigate the determinants of LTOP. RESULTS: Out of 320 639 registered patients ≥18 years, 2679 (0.8%) were identified as having LTOP. Patients were most likely to have LTOP if they had ≥5 long-term conditions (LTCs) (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 36.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 30.4-43.8) or 2-4 LTCs (AOR 13.8, CI 11.9-16.1) in comparison to no LTCs, were ≥75 years compared to 18-24 years (AOR 12.31, CI 7.1-21.5), were smokers compared to nonsmokers (AOR 2.2, CI 2.0-2.5), were female rather than male (AOR 1.9, CI 1.7-2.0) and in the most deprived deprivation quintile (AOR 1.6, CI 1.4-1.8) compared to the least deprived. In a separate model examining individual LTCs, the strongest associations for LTOP were noted for sickle cell disease (SCD) (AOR 18.4, CI 12.8-26.4), osteoarthritis (AOR 3.0, CI 2.8-3.3), rheumatoid arthritis (AOR 2.8, CI 2.2-3.4), depression (AOR 2.6, CI 2.3-2.8) and multiple sclerosis (OR 2.5, CI 1.4-4.4). CONCLUSION: LTOP was significantly higher in those aged ≥75 years, with multimorbidity or specific LTCs: SCD, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, depression and multiple sclerosis. These characteristics may enable the design of targeted interventions to reduce LTOP.

Demographic variation in fit note receipt and long-term conditions in south London.

OBJECTIVES: Introduced in the UK in 2010, the fit note was designed to address the problem of long-term sickness absence. We explored (1) associations between demographic variables and fit note receipt, 'maybe fit' use and long-term conditions, (2) whether individuals with long-term conditions receive more fit notes and are more likely to have the 'maybe fit' option selected and (3) whether long-term conditions explained associations between demographic variables and fit note receipt. METHODS: Data were extracted from Lambeth DataNet, a database containing electronic medical records of all 45 general practitioner (GP) practices within the borough of Lambeth. Individual-level anonymised data on GP consultations, prescriptions, Quality and Outcomes Framework diagnostic data and demographic information were analysed using survival analysis. RESULTS: In a sample of 326 415 people, 41 502 (12.7%) received a fit note. We found substantial differences in fit note receipt by gender, age, ethnicity and area-level deprivation. Chronic pain (HR 3.7 (95% CI 3.3 to 4.0)) and depression (HR 3.4 (95% CI 3.3 to 3.6)) had the highest rates for first fit note receipt. 'Maybe fit' recommendations were used least often in patients with epilepsy and serious mental illness. The presence of long-term conditions did not explain associations between demographic variables and fit note use. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, we show the relationships between fit note use and long-term conditions using individual-level primary care data from south London. Further research is required in order to evaluate this relatively new policy and to understand the needs of the population it was designed to support.

GP Training practices in England: a description of their unique features based on national data.

Postgraduate general practitioner (GP) training structures have been reorganised with the formation of Health Education England (HEE). We aimed to broaden the findings of previous studies and identify key features of GP training practices. In particular, we wanted to extend previous findings regarding QOF achievement and patient experience derived from the General Practice Patient Survey (GPPS), with recent data on the use of urgent cancer referral pathways ('Two Week Wait', or '2WW,' referrals) and secondary care utilisation by GP training Practices. We compared training and non-training practices, adjusting for differences in practice size and demographic features. Compared with non-training practices, we found reported patient satisfaction with 'access' was 2.0% higher (p < 0.001), 'communication' 0.75% higher (p < 0.001), 'overall experience' 2.8% higher (p < 0.001), 'continuity of care' 2.2% lower (p < 0.001). Mean QOF scores were 11 points higher in training practices (p < 0.001). There were few differences between the two types of practice in terms of Emergency hospital admissions, Ambulatory Care Sensitive (ACSC) admissions, Accident and Emergency attendances and Out-Patient attendances. Training practices used the 2WW referral pathway more frequently than non-training practices resulting in a 1.1% higher 'cancer detection rate' (p = 0.007).

Improving the Diagnosis and Treatment of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Children in Primary Care: Results from the DUTY Prospective Diagnostic Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: Up to 50% of urinary tract infections (UTIs) in young children are missed in primary care. Urine culture is essential for diagnosis, but urine collection is often difficult. Our aim was to derive and internally validate a 2-step clinical rule using (1) symptoms and signs to select children for urine collection; and (2) symptoms, signs, and dipstick testing to guide antibiotic treatment. METHODS: We recruited acutely unwell children aged under 5 years from 233 primary care sites across England and Wales. Index tests were parent-reported symptoms, clinician-reported signs, urine dipstick results, and clinician opinion of UTI likelihood (clinical diagnosis before dipstick and culture). The reference standard was microbiologically confirmed UTI cultured from a clean-catch urine sample. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve of coefficient-based (graded severity) and points-based (dichotomized) symptom/sign logistic regression models, and we then internally validated the AUROC using bootstrapping. RESULTS: Three thousand thirty-six children provided urine samples, and culture results were available for 2,740 (90%). Of these results, 60 (2.2%) were positive: the clinical diagnosis was 46.6% sensitive, with an AUROC of 0.77. Previous UTI, increasing pain/crying on passing urine, increasingly smelly urine, absence of severe cough, increasing clinician impression of severe illness, abdominal tenderness on examination, and normal findings on ear examination were associated with UTI. The validated coefficient- and points-based model AUROCs were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, increasing to 0.90 and 0.90, respectively, by adding dipstick nitrites, leukocytes, and blood. CONCLUSIONS: A clinical rule based on symptoms and signs is superior to clinician diagnosis and performs well for identifying young children for noninvasive urine sampling. Dipstick results add further diagnostic value for empiric antibiotic treatment.

Long term condition morbidity in English general practice: a cross-sectional study using three composite morbidity measures.

BACKGROUND: The burden of morbidity represented by patients with long term conditions (LTCs) varies substantially between general practices. This study aimed to determine the characteristics of general practices with high morbidity burden. METHOD: Retrospective cross-sectional study; general practices in England, 2014/15. Three composite morbidity measures (MMs) were constructed to quantify LTC morbidity at practice level: a count of LTCs derived from the 20 LTCs included in the UK Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) disease registers, expressed as 'number of QOF LTCs per 100 registered patients'; the % of patients with one or more QOF LTCs; the % of patients with one or more of 15 broadly defined LTCs included in the GP Patient Survey (GPPS). Determinants of MM scores were analysed using multi-level regression models. Analysis was based on a national dataset of English general practices (n = 7779 practices); GPPS responses (n = 903,357); general practice characteristics (e.g. list size, list size per full time GP); patient demographic characteristics (age, deprivation status); secondary care utilisation (out-patient, emergency department, emergency admission rates). RESULTS: Mean MM scores (95% CIs) were: 57.7 (±22.3) QOF LTCs per 100 registered patients; 22.8% (±8.2) patients with a QOF LTC; 63.5% (±11.7) patients with a GPPS LTC. The proportion of elderly patients and social deprivation scores were the strongest predictors of each MM score; scores were largely independent of practice characteristics. MM scores were positive predictors of secondary care utilization and negative predictors' access, continuity of care and overall satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: Wide variation in LTC morbidity burden was observed across English general practice. Variation was determined by demographic factors rather than practice characteristics. Higher rates of secondary care utilisation in practices with higher morbidity burden have implications for resource allocation and commissioning budgets; lower reported satisfaction in these practices suggests that practices may struggle with increased workload. There is a need for a readily available metric to define the burden of morbidity and multimorbidity in general practice.

Early diagnostic suggestions improve accuracy of family physicians: a randomized controlled trial in Greece.

BACKGROUND: In a recent randomized controlled trial, providing UK family physicians with 'early support' (possible diagnoses to consider before any information gathering) was associated with diagnosing hypothetical patients on computer more accurately than control. Another group of physicians, who gathered information, gave a diagnosis, and subsequently received a list of possible diagnoses to consider ('late support'), were no more accurate than control, despite being able to change their initial diagnoses. OBJECTIVE: To replicate the UK study findings in another country with a different primary health care system. METHODS: All study materials were translated into Greek. Greek family physicians were randomly allocated to one of three groups: control, early support and late support. Participants saw nine scenarios in random order. After reading some information about the patient and the reason for encounter, they requested more information to diagnose. The main outcome measure was diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: One hundred fifty Greek family physicians participated. The early support group was more accurate than control [odds ratio (OR): 1.67 (1.21-2.31)]. Like their UK counterparts, physicians in the late support group rarely changed their initial diagnoses after receiving support. The pooled OR for the early support versus control comparison from the meta-analysis of the UK and Greek data was 1.40 (1.13-1.67). CONCLUSION: Using the same methodology with a different sample of family physicians in a different country, we found that suggesting diagnoses to consider before physicians start gathering information was associated with more accurate diagnoses. This constitutes further supportive evidence of a generalizable effect of early support.

Disease patterns in high-cost individuals with multimorbidity: a retrospective cross-sectional study in primary care.

BACKGROUND: 'High-cost' individuals with multimorbidity account for a disproportionately large share of healthcare costs and are at most risk of poor quality of care and health outcomes. AIM: To compare high-cost with lower-cost individuals with multimorbidity and assess whether these populations can be clustered based on similar disease patterns. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional study based on 2019/2020 electronic medical records from adults registered to primary care practices (n = 41) in a London borough. METHOD: Multimorbidity is defined as having ≥2 long-term conditions (LTCs). Primary care costs reflected consultations, which were costed based on provider and consultation types. High cost was defined as the top 20% of individuals in the cost distribution. Descriptive analyses identified combinations of 32 LTCs and their contribution to costs. Latent class analysis explored clustering patterns. RESULTS: Of 386 238 individuals, 101 498 (26%) had multimorbidity. The high-cost group (n = 20 304) incurred 53% of total costs and had 6833 unique disease combinations, about three times the diversity of the lower-cost group (n = 81 194). The trio of anxiety, chronic pain, and depression represented the highest share of costs (5%). High-cost individuals were best grouped into five clusters, but no cluster was dominated by a single LTC combination. In three of five clusters, mental health conditions were the most prevalent. CONCLUSION: High-cost individuals with multimorbidity have extensive heterogeneity in LTCs, with no single LTC combination dominating their primary care costs. The frequent presence of mental health conditions in this population supports the need to enhance coordination of mental and physical health care to improve outcomes and reduce costs.

Assessment of ethnic inequalities in diagnostic coding of familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH): A cross-sectional database study in Lambeth, South London.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Differences in the perceived prevalence of familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) by ethnicity are unclear. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence, determinants and management of diagnostically-coded FH in an ethnically diverse population in South London. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of 40 practices in 332,357 adult patients in Lambeth was undertaken. Factors affecting a (clinically coded) diagnosis of FH were investigated by multi-level logistic regression adjusted for socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, co-morbidities, and medications. RESULTS: The age-adjusted FH % prevalence rate (OR, 95%CI) ranged from 0.10 to 1.11, 0.00-1.31. Lower rates of FH coding were associated with age (0.96, 0.96-0.97) and male gender (0.75, 0.65-0.87), p < 0.001. Compared to a White British reference group, a higher likelihood of coded FH was noted in Other Asians (1.33, 1.01-1.76), p = 0.05, with lower rates in Black Africans (0.50, 0.37-0.68), p < 0.001, Indians (0.55, 0.34-0.89) p = 0.02, and in Black Caribbeans (0.60, 0.44-0.81), p = 0.001. The overall prevalence using Simon Broome criteria was 0.1%; we were unable to provide ethnic specific estimates due to low numbers. Lower likelihoods of FH coding (OR, 95%CI) were seen in non-native English speakers (0.66, 0.53-0.81), most deprived income quintile (0.68, 0.52-0.88), smokers (0.68,0.55-0.85), hypertension (0.62, 0.52-0.74), chronic kidney disease (0.64, 0.41-0.99), obesity (0.80, 0.67-0.95), diabetes (0.31, 0.25-0.39) and CVD (0.47, 0.36-0.63). 20% of FH coded patients were not prescribed lipid-lowering medications, p < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Inequalities in diagnostic coding of FH patients exist. Lower likelihoods of diagnosed FH were seen in Black African, Black Caribbean and Indian ethnic groups, in contrast to higher diagnoses in White and Other Asian ethnic groups. Hypercholesterolaemia requiring statin therapy was associated with FH diagnosis, however, the presence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors lowered the diagnosis rate for FH.

Co-development of breast cancer health promotion educational materials for ethnically diverse women working with hairdressing and beauty salons: BELONG study.

BACKGROUND: Improved screening uptake is essential for early breast cancer detection, women's health and reducing health disparities. However, minority ethnic and deprived communities often face lower breast cancer screening rates and limited access to culturally tailored educational materials. A recent review found limited culturally tailored materials for breast cancer education. AIM: To investigate the culturally appropriate interfaces and preferences of salon staff in educating their clients about breast cancer METHOD: We used a two-stage approach, following the Double Diamond framework; discover and define phases. Relevant breast cancer materials (i.e., based on cultural appropriateness, English language presentation, and alignment with the UK context) were assessed using the Suitability Assessment of Materials (SAM) toolkit. Interviews with ethnically diverse salon staff provided insights into their needs and preferences for client education materials. Thematic analysis was applied to interview transcripts. RESULTS: Cultural appropriateness was evident in 9/14 (64%) of the materials identified (e.g., targeting black ethnicities with positive representations). Of those, six of them demonstrated an overall SAM rating of 76% ("Superior"). Thematic analysis of interviews identified seven key themes, including the importance of engagement strategies, education and awareness for health promotion, salon staff's role, preferred training methods, supportive materials, inclusivity, representation, and participant satisfaction. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the SAM toolkit's role in selecting suitable educational materials for breast cancer prevention. The research offers prospects for improving breast cancer awareness in ethnically diverse communities and addressing healthcare access disparities, with salon hairdressers emerging as crucial advocates for health promotion.

Effect of on-demand vs continuous prescription of proton pump inhibitors on symptom burden and quality of life: results of a real-world randomized controlled trial in primary care patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the impact of on-demand versus continuous prescribing of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) on symptom burden and health-related quality of life in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) presenting to primary care. METHODS: Thirty-six primary care centres across Europe enrolled adult GERD patients from electronic health records. Participants were randomised to on-demand or continuous PPI prescriptions and were followed for 8 weeks. PPI intake, symptom burden, and quality of life were compared between the two groups using mixed-effect regression analyses. Spearman's correlation was used to assess the association between changes in PPI dose and patient-reported outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 488 patients (median age 51 years, 58% women) completed the initial visit, with 360 attending the follow-up visit. There was no significant difference in PPI use between the continuous and on-demand prescription groups (b=.57, 95%CI:0.40-1.53), although PPI use increased in both groups (b = 1.33, 95%CI:0.65 - 2.01). Advice on prescribing strategy did not significantly affect patient-reported outcomes. Both symptom burden (Reflux Disease Questionnaire, b=-0.61, 95%CI:-0.73 - -0.49) and quality of life (12-item Short Form Survey physical score b = 3.31, 95%CI:2.17 - 4.45) improved from baseline to follow-up in both groups. Increased PPI intake correlated with reduced reflux symptoms (n = 347, ρ=-0.12, p = 0.02) and improved quality of life (n = 217, ρ = 0.16, p = 0.02). CONCLUSION: In real-world settings, both continuous and on-demand PPI prescriptions resulted in similar increases in PPI consumption with no difference in treatment effects. Achieving an adequate PPI dose to alleviate reflux symptom burden improves quality of life in GERD patients. EudraCT number 2014-001314-25.

Continuous and on-demand prescription increase in proton pump inhibitor consumption equally in real-world settings and did not result in different outcomes.Reaching a sufficient dose of proton pump inhibitor to reduce reflux symptom burden improves quality of life in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease.

Mechanisms for Integrating Real Data into Search Game Simulations: An Application to Winter Health Service Pressures and Preventative Policies.

While modelling and simulation are powerful techniques for exploring complex phenomena, if they are not coupled with suitable real-world data any results obtained are likely to require extensive validation. We consider this problem in the context of search game modelling, and suggest that both demographic and behaviour data are used to configure certain model parameters. We show this integration in practice by using a combined dataset of over 150,000 individuals to configure a specific search game model that captures the environment, population, interventions and individual behaviours relating to winter health service pressures. The presence of this data enables us to more accurately explore the potential impact of service pressure interventions, which we do across 33,000 simulations using a computational version of the model. We find government advice to be the best-performing intervention in simulation, in respect of improved health, reduced health inequalities, and thus reduced pressure on health service utilisation.

Identifying populations with chronic pain in primary care: developing an algorithm and logic rules applied to coded primary care diagnostic and medication data.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of chronic pain prevalence using coded primary care data are likely to be substantially lower than estimates derived from community surveys. Most primary care studies have estimated chronic pain prevalence using data searches confined to analgesic medication prescriptions. Increasingly, following recent NICE guideline recommendations, patients and doctors opt for non-drug treatment of chronic pain thus excluding these patients from prevalence estimates based on medication codes. We aimed to develop and test an algorithm combining medication codes with selected diagnostic codes to estimate chronic pain prevalence using coded primary care data. METHODS: Following a scoping review 4 criteria were developed to identify cohorts of people with chronic pain. These were (1) people with one of 12 ('tier 1') conditions that almost always results in the individual having chronic pain (2) people with one of 20 ('tier 2') conditions included when there are also 3 or more prescription-only analgesics issued in the last 12 months (3) chronic neuropathic pain, or (4) 4 or more prescription-only analgesics issued in the last 12 months. These were translated into 8 logic rules which included 1,932 SNOMED CT codes. RESULTS: The algorithm was run on primary care data from 41 GP Practices in Lambeth. The total population consisted of 386,238 GP registered adults ≥ 18 years as of the 31st March 2021. 64,135 (16.6%) were identified as people with chronic pain. This definition demonstrated notably high rates in Black ethnicity females, and higher rates in the most deprived, and older population. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of chronic pain prevalence using structured healthcare data have previously shown lower prevalence estimates for chronic pain than reported in community surveys. This has limited the ability of researchers and clinicians to fully understand and address the complex multifactorial nature of chronic pain. Our study demonstrates that it may be possible to establish more representative prevalence estimates using structured data than previously possible. Use of logic rules offers the potential to move systematic identification and population-based management of chronic pain into mainstream clinical practice at scale and support improved management of symptom burden for people experiencing chronic pain.

Identifying multimorbidity clusters with the highest primary care use: 15 years of evidence from a multi-ethnic metropolitan population.

BACKGROUND: People with multimorbidity have complex healthcare needs. Some co-occurring diseases interact with each other to a larger extent than others and may have a different impact on primary care use. AIM: To assess the association between multimorbidity clusters and primary care consultations over time. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective longitudinal (panel) study design was used. Data comprised electronic primary care health records of 826 166 patients registered at GP practices in an ethnically diverse, urban setting in London between 2005 and 2020. METHOD: Primary care consultation rates were modelled using generalised estimating equations. Key controls included the total number of long-term conditions, five multimorbidity clusters, and their interaction effects, ethnic group, and polypharmacy (proxy for disease severity). Models were also calibrated by consultation type and ethnic group. RESULTS: Individuals with multimorbidity used two to three times more primary care services than those without multimorbidity (incidence rate ratio 2.30, 95% confidence interval = 2.29 to 2.32). Patients in the alcohol dependence, substance dependence, and HIV cluster (Dependence+) had the highest rate of increase in primary care consultations as additional long-term conditions accumulated, followed by the mental health cluster (anxiety and depression). Differences by ethnic group were observed, with the largest impact in the chronic liver disease and viral hepatitis cluster for individuals of Black or Asian ethnicity. CONCLUSION: This study identified multimorbidity clusters with the highest primary care demand over time as additional long-term conditions developed, differentiating by consultation type and ethnicity. Targeting clinical practice to prevent multimorbidity progression for these groups may lessen future pressures on primary care demand by improving health outcomes.

What factors influence differential uptake of NHS Health Checks, diabetes and hypertension reviews among women in ethnically diverse South London? Cross-sectional analysis of 63,000 primary care records.

Background: Uptake of health checks among women has not been examined in relation to patient and General Practitioner (GP) practice level factors. We investigated patient and practice level factors associated with differential uptake of health checks. Methods: Primary care records from 44 practices in Lambeth for women aged 40-74 years old (N = 62,967) from 2000-2018 were analysed using multi-level logistic regression models. An odds ratio (OR) >1 indicates increased occurrence of no health check. Findings: The mean age (IQR) of the included female sample (aged 40-74 years) was 52.9 years (45.0-59.0). Adjusted for patient-level factors (age, ethnicity, English as first language, overweight/obesity, smoking, attendance to GP practices, and co-morbidity), the odds of non-uptake of health checks were higher for Other White (OR 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.33), and Other ethnicity (1.20, 1.07-1.35) vs. White British. It was also higher for 50-69 year olds (1.55, 1.47-1.62), 70-74 year olds (1.60, 1.49-1.72) vs. 40-49 year olds. These ORs did not change on adjustments for practice level factors (proportion of patients living in deprived areas, proportion of patients with ≥1 chronic condition, ≥3 emergency diabetes admissions annually, GP density/1000 patients, quality outcome framework score of ≥ 95%, and patient satisfaction scores of ≥80%). Non-uptake was lower for Black Caribbeans, Bangladeshis, overweight/obese patients, frequent practice attenders and comorbid patients. Interpretation: Differential uptake in health checks remained after adjustment for patient and practice level factors. Better measures of social determinants of health and of practice context are needed. Funding: NIHR Research for Patient Benefit Programme (NIHR202769).

Hypertension and cardiovascular risk factor management in a multi-ethnic cohort of adults with CKD: a cross sectional study in general practice.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension, especially if poorly controlled, is a key determinant of chronic kidney disease (CKD) development and progression to end stage renal disease (ESRD). AIM: To assess hypertension and risk factor management, and determinants of systolic blood pressure control in individuals with CKD and hypertension. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional survey using primary care electronic health records from 47/49 general practice clinics in South London. METHODS: Known effective interventions, management of hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with CKD Stages 3-5 were investigated. Multivariable logistic regression analysis examined the association of demographic factors, comorbidities, deprivation, and CKD coding, with systolic blood pressure control status as outcome. Individuals with diabetes were excluded. RESULTS: Adults with CKD Stages 3-5 and hypertension represented 4131/286,162 (1.4%) of the total population; 1984 (48%) of these individuals had undiagnosed CKD without a recorded CKD clinical code. Hypertension was undiagnosed in 25% of the total Lambeth population, and in patients with CKD without diagnosed hypertension, 23.0% had systolic blood pressure > 140 mmHg compared with 39.8% hypertensives, p < 0.001. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that factors associated with improved systolic blood pressure control in CKD included diastolic blood pressure control, serious mental illness, history of cardiovascular co-morbidities, CKD diagnostic coding, and age < 60 years. African ethnicity and obesity were associated with poorer systolic blood pressure control. CONCLUSION: We found both underdiagnosed CKD and underdiagnosed hypertension in patients with CKD. The poor systolic blood pressure control in older age groups ≥ 60 years and in Black African or obese individuals is clinically important as these groups are at increased risk of mortality for cardiovascular diseases.

Inequalities in developing multimorbidity over time: A population-based cohort study from an urban, multi-ethnic borough in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Social and material deprivation accelerate the development of multimorbidity, yet the mechanisms which drive multimorbidity pathways and trajectories remain unclear. We aimed to examine the association between health inequality, risk factors and accumulation or resolution of LTCs, taking disease sequences into consideration. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort of adults aged 18 years and over, registered between April 2005 and May 2020 in general practices in one inner London borough (n = 826,936). Thirty-two long term conditions (LTCs) were selected using a consensus process, based on a definition adapted to the demographic characteristics of the local population. sThe development and resolution of these LTCs were examined according to sociodemographic and clinical risk factors (hypertension; moderate obesity (BMI 30·0-39·9 kg/m2), high cholesterol (total cholesterol > 5 mmol/L), smoking, high alcohol consumption (>14 units per week), and psychoactive substance use), through the application of multistate Markov chain models. FINDINGS: Participants were followed up for a median of 4.2 years (IQR = 1·8 - 8·4); 631,760 (76%) entered the study with no LTCs, 121,424 (15%) with 1 LTC, 41,720 (5%) with 2 LTCs, and 31,966 (4%) with three or more LTCs. At the end of follow-up, 194,777 (24%) gained one or more LTCs, while 45,017 (5%) had resolved LTCs and 27,021 (3%) died. In multistate models, deprivation (hazard ratio [HR] between 1·30 to 1·64), female sex (HR 1·13 to 1·20), and Black ethnicity (HR 1·20 to 1·30; vs White) were independently associated with increased risk of transition from one to two LTCs, and shorter time spent in a healthy state. Substance use was the strongest risk factor for multimorbidity with an 85% probability of gaining LTCs over the next year. First order Markov chains identified consistent disease sequences including: chronic pain or osteoarthritis followed by anxiety and depression; alcohol and substance dependency followed by HIV, viral hepatitis, and liver disease; and morbid obesity followed by diabetes, hypertension, and chronic pain. INTERPRETATION: We examined the relations among 32 LTCs, taking the order of disease occurrence into consideration. Distinctive patterns for the development and accumulation of multimorbidity have emerged, with increased risk of transitioning from no conditions to multimorbidity and mortality related to ethnicity, deprivation and gender. Musculoskeletal disorders, morbid obesity and substance abuse represent common entry points to multimorbidity trajectories.