Seasonality in extra-pulmonary tuberculosis notifications in Germany 2004-2014- a time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Seasonality in tuberculosis (TB) has been found in different parts of the world, showing a peak in spring/summer and a trough in autumn/winter. The evidence is less clear which factors drive seasonality. It was our aim to identify and evaluate seasonality in the notifications of TB in Germany, additionally investigating the possible variance of seasonality by disease site, sex and age group. METHODS: We conducted an integer-valued time series analysis using national surveillance data. We analysed the reported monthly numbers of started treatments between 2004 and 2014 for all notified TB cases and stratified by disease site, sex and age group. RESULTS: We detected seasonality in the extra-pulmonary TB cases (N = 11,219), with peaks in late spring/summer and troughs in fall/winter. For all TB notifications together (N = 51,090) and for pulmonary TB only (N = 39,714) we did not find a distinct seasonality. Additional stratified analyses did not reveal any clear differences between age groups, the sexes, or between active and passive case finding. CONCLUSION: We found seasonality in extra-pulmonary TB only, indicating that seasonality of disease onset might be specific to the disease site. This could point towards differences in disease progression between the different clinical disease manifestations. Sex appears not to be an important driver of seasonality, whereas the role of age remains unclear as this could not be sufficiently investigated.

External quality assessment (EQA) of Neisseria gonorrhoeae antimicrobial susceptibility testing in primary laboratories in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, an increase in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) of Neisseria gonorrhoeae has been observed. Until now, no protocol for an external quality assessment (EQA) has been available for Germany. The German gonococcal resistance network (GORENET) performed an EQA of primary laboratories in Germany in order to assess quality of antibiotic susceptibility testing, to gain information about laboratory procedures and to assess the impact of these procedures on test results. METHODS: Laboratories assessed drug susceptibility to cefixime, ceftriaxone, azithromycin, penicillin and ciprofloxacin for five N. gonorrhoeae strains, using their standard laboratory protocols. Minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) were compared to World Health Organisation (WHO) consensus results (or, if not available, reference laboratory results), while deviation by +/- one doubling dilution was accepted. Data on laboratory procedures were collected via a standardised questionnaire. Generalized linear models and conditional inference trees (CTREE) were used to assess relationships between laboratory procedures and testing outcomes. RESULTS: Twenty-one primary laboratories participated in the EQA in June 2018. 96% of ciprofloxacin MICs were reported within accepted deviations, as well as 88% for cefixime, 85% for ceftriaxone, 79% for penicillin and 70% for azithromycin. The use of interpretation standards and general laboratory procedures like agar base, incubation settings or the use of control strains strongly differed between laboratories. In statistical analysis, incubation time of cultures < 24 h was associated with correct measurements. Additionally, a 5% CO2 concentration was associated with correct results regarding azithromycin compared to 3%. CTREE analysis showed that incubation time, humidity and CO2 concentration had the greatest influence on the average deviation from consensus results. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, we report the development of a protocol for N. gonorrhoeae antimicrobial susceptibility testing in Germany. While testing results were in accordance with the expected consensus results in 70-96%, depending on the antibiotic agent, laboratory methodology was heterogeneous and may significantly affect the testing quality. We therefore recommend the development of a standard operating procedure (SOP) for N. gonorrhoeae susceptibility testing in Germany.

Dating apps and websites as tools to reach anonymous sexual contacts during an outbreak of hepatitis A among men who have sex with men, Berlin, 2017.

BackgroundIn an outbreak of hepatitis A among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Berlin (2016 and 2017), patients frequently reported anonymous sex and use of dating applications to meet sexual contacts, hampering tracing and vaccination of contacts.AimOur objective was to evaluate dating apps and websites as a means of spreading prevention messages among MSM during the ongoing outbreak.MethodsAdvertisements in different formats were placed on three MSM dating apps and eight websites for anonymous dating during three weeks in March and April 2017. We calculated frequency of ads shown and click-through rates (CTR) and investigated the independent effect of format and platform on the number of clicks using a negative binomial regression model. We evaluated the campaign's impact using a survey among visitors of a large gay-lesbian street-festival in Berlin.ResultsOverall, 1,920,180 ads were shown and clicked on 8,831 times (CTR = 0.46%). The multivariable model showed significantly more clicks on one dating app (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 9.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 7.7-12.2) than on websites and on full-screen ads (IRR = 3.1; 95% CI: 2.5-3.8) than on banner ads. Of 266 MSM who participated in the survey, 190 (71%) knew about the outbreak and 39 (15%) declared to have been vaccinated recently because of the campaign.ConclusionsDating apps provided a means to rapidly reach and influence a substantial number of MSM in Berlin and should complement case-based contact tracing among MSM in outbreak settings. Clicking on ads depended on platform and format used.

Analysis of Health Care Costs in Elderly Patients with Multiple Chronic Conditions Using a Finite Mixture of Generalized Linear Models.

In this paper we analysed healthcare costs in a sample of elderly patients suffering from multimorbidity. On the one hand, multimorbid individuals consume a disproportionally large share of healthcare resources. On the other hand, the patient specific number and combination of co-occurring single diseases result in inhomogeneous data leading to biased estimates when using traditional regression techniques. Therefore, we applied a mixture of regressions in order to control for unobserved heterogeneity focussing on the identification of multimorbidity patterns. We used a subsample of N = 1050 patients from a multicentre prospective cohort study of randomly selected multimorbid primary care patients aged 65 to 85 years in Germany (ISRCTN 89818205) who completed a detailed questionnaire on healthcare utilization during the 6-month period preceding the interview. Disease combinations of 1047 were included. We detected four different groups of patients with regard to total costs. These groups corresponded largely to findings from the epidemiological literature. The effect of the presence of an additional disease on costs differed between groups. Moreover, two diametrically opposed cost trends were detected with respect to the number of co-occurring diseases. While in one group costs increased with the number of co-occurring diseases, in a second group cost tended to decrease. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of multiple chronic conditions on health care costs: an analysis based on an advanced tree-based regression model.

BACKGROUND: To analyze the impact of multimorbidity (MM) on health care costs taking into account data heterogeneity. METHODS: Data come from a multicenter prospective cohort study of 1,050 randomly selected primary care patients aged 65 to 85 years suffering from MM in Germany. MM was defined as co-occurrence of ≥3 conditions from a list of 29 chronic diseases. A conditional inference tree (CTREE) algorithm was used to detect the underlying structure and most influential variables on costs of inpatient care, outpatient care, medications as well as formal and informal nursing care. RESULTS: Irrespective of the number and combination of co-morbidities, a limited number of factors influential on costs were detected. Parkinson's disease (PD) and cardiac insufficiency (CI) were the most influential variables for total costs. Compared to patients not suffering from any of the two conditions, PD increases predicted mean total costs 3.5-fold to approximately € 11,000 per 6 months, and CI two-fold to approximately € 6,100. The high total costs of PD are largely due to costs of nursing care. Costs of inpatient care were significantly influenced by cerebral ischemia/chronic stroke, whereas medication costs were associated with COPD, insomnia, PD and Diabetes. Except for costs of nursing care, socio-demographic variables did not significantly influence costs. CONCLUSIONS: Irrespective of any combination and number of co-occurring diseases, PD and CI appear to be most influential on total health care costs in elderly patients with MM, and only a limited number of factors significantly influenced cost. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN89818205.

Barriers and drivers to adult vaccination among family physicians - Insights for tailoring the immunization program in Germany.

BACKGROUND: In Germany, vaccination gaps exist mainly among adolescents and adults. Family physicians (FPs) administer adult vaccines. FPs strongly influence the vaccination behavior and attitudes of their patients, so their own vaccination-related attitudes and behaviors are critical to achieve high vaccination coverage. The aim of this study was to identify determinants of FPs' own vaccination uptake and their recommendation behavior. METHOD: 700 FPs participated in a random sampled telephone survey. Respondents were interviewed in both their roles as vaccine recipients and vaccine providers. Thus, participants indicated their own vaccination status and recommendation behavior as primary outcomes. Primary determinants were the 5C psychological antecedents of vaccination. In addition, participants indicated demographic data and other barriers towards vaccination. Association between outcome and determinants were examined using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Around 60% of physicians reported to be vaccinated against influenza, pertussis and hepatitis B, and the majority claimed to recommend vaccines to patients. Own vaccination status was significantly associated with the recommendation of vaccines. Of the psychological determinants confidence in the safety of vaccines was associated with own vaccination and recommendation behavior. Collective responsibility, constraints and complacency were associated with own vaccination status. Being from western Germany and being a homeopathic FP were independently associated with lower own vaccination behavior. Vaccine shortages (52.5%) and cost coverage problems (25.6%) were reported frequently as system-related barriers. There was a perception that the National Immunization Technical Advisory Group was influenced by other interests (14.8%) and that people are vaccinated against too many diseases (8%). Around 40% had implemented an office-based reminder system. DISCUSSION: FPs' vaccination behaviors are associated with various psychological determinants and additional barriers. In particular, confidence can leverage FPs' vaccination behaviors. Promoting office-based reminder systems, reducing system-related barriers, and building trust in official recommendations are additional measures to improve adult vaccination in Germany.

Intestinal colonization with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-PE) during long distance travel: A cohort study in a German travel clinic (2016-2017).

BACKGROUND: Intercontinental travel contributes to the spread of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-PE). We assessed risk factors for intestinal ESBL-PE colonization in people travelling to low and middle income countries in the tropics and subtropics to better understand how travel affects ESBL-PE spread. METHOD: This prospective cohort study in travellers attending a travel clinic in Leipzig, Germany was conducted in 2016-2017. Information on risk factors related to travel, symptoms, antibiotic use, health care usage, accommodation, destination, diet and hygiene was collected by questionnaire after travel. Stools were phenotypically tested for ESBL-PE before and after travel. Risk factors for ESBL-PE colonization were identified using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 230 travellers that were ESBL-PE negative before travelling, 23% (n = 53) travellers returned positive. Multivariable analyses showed that age, type of accommodation and travelling to Asia were associated with ESBL-PE colonization. CONCLUSIONS: Given that a considerable amount of travellers returned with ESBL-PE, we recommend raising awareness in returning high-risk travellers, e.g. those returning from high-risk areas. They should be aware that they may carry antimicrobial-resistant bacteria after travel, and how they can prevent its spread. The role of the type of accommodation as a factor favouring intestinal colonization with ESBL-PE requires further investigation.

Spatio-temporal analysis of fox rabies cases in Germany 2005-2006.

Aiming to achieve new insights into rabies dynamics, this paper is the first to investigate fox rabies in Germany from a space-time pattern perspective. Based on a locally restricted dataset covering a fourteen month period, our findings indicate a strongly aggregated spatiotemporal point pattern resulting from an inhomogeneous stochastic process. In contrast to spatial or temporal approaches or cellular automata, our analysis focuses on the disease dynamics in time and space in a continuous time domain. Our findings confirm existing theories regarding fox rabies control highlighting the potential risk of urban areas and the need for effective rabies vaccination.

Femoral fracture rates after discharge from the hospital to the community.

Previous studies found that the risk of a femoral fracture in residents newly admitted to nursing homes was highest during the first months after admission and declined thereafter. Many nursing home admissions are preceded by a hospitalization. Therefore, the present study aimed to analyze if a similar risk pattern of fall-related fractures could also be observed in community-dwelling people at home after discharge from the hospital. Routine data of more than 690,000 German people aged 65 years and older with more than 2 million hospital discharges were used to calculate fracture rates in the first 6 months after hospitalization, for people discharged to live in the community. Incidence rates of femoral fractures as a function of time since discharge from hospital were analyzed. Analyses were stratified by sex, age, the need for care, and diagnostic groups. For femoral fractures the incidence was highest during the first months after discharge and declined thereafter. This pattern was observed in women and men, in different age-groups, in different diagnostic groups, and in people with and without the need for care. For example, rates for femoral fractures in women declined from 17.4 to 11.0 per 1000 person years over the first 6 months after admission, and in men over the same time period from 8.2 to 4.5 per 1000 person-years, respectively. We conclude that the first weeks at home after discharge from the hospital are associated with an increased risk for femoral fractures.

Telephone-based health coaching for chronically ill patients: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The rising prevalence of chronic conditions constitutes a major burden for patients and healthcare systems and is predicted to increase in the upcoming decades. Improving the self-management skills of patients is a strategy to steer against this burden. This could lead to better outcomes and lower healthcare costs. Health coaching is one method for enhancing the self-management of patients and can be delivered by phone. The effects of telephone-based health coaching are promising, but still inconclusive. Economic evaluations and studies examining the transferability of effects to different healthcare systems are still rare. Aim of this study is to evaluate telephone-based health coaching for chronically ill patients in Germany. METHODS/DESIGN: The study is a prospective randomized controlled trial comparing the effects of telephone-based health coaching with usual care during a 4-year time period. Data are collected at baseline and after 12, 24 and 36 months. Patients are selected based on one of the following chronic conditions: diabetes, coronary artery disease, asthma, hypertension, heart failure, COPD, chronic depression or schizophrenia. The health coaching intervention is carried out by trained nurses employed by a German statutory health insurance. The frequency and the topics of the health coaching are manual-based but tailored to the patients' needs and medical condition, following the concepts of motivational interviewing, shared decision-making and evidence-based-medicine. Approximately 12,000 insurants will be enrolled and randomized into intervention and control groups. Primary outcome is the time until hospital readmission within two years after enrolling in the health coaching, assessed by routine data. Secondary outcomes are patient-reported outcomes like changes in quality of life, depression and anxiety and clinical values assessed with questionnaires. Additional secondary outcomes are further economic evaluations like health service use as well as costs and hospital readmission rates. The statistical analyses includes intention-to-treat and as-treated principles. The recruitment will be completed in September 2014. DISCUSSION: This study will provide evidence regarding economic and clinical effects of telephone-delivered health coaching. Additionally, this study will show whether health coaching is an adequate option for the German healthcare system to address the growing burden of chronic diseases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register (Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien; DRKS) DRKS00000584.