Tradeoffs between soil, water, and carbon -- a national scale analysis from New Zealand.

The tradeoffs between the regulation of soil erosion, provision of fresh water, and climate regulation associated with new Pinus radiata forests in New Zealand are explored using national models. These three ecosystem services for which there is strong demand are monetised as commodities (avoided soil erosion is NZ $1 per tonne; water is NZ $1 per cubic metre; and sequestered carbon is assumed to be NZ $73 per tonne). This permits their summation on a spatial basis to produce a national map of the net benefit of these ecosystem services. Net benefit is spatially variable depending primarily on the relative mix of forest growth rates and demand for irrigation water. New P. radiata forests (once mature) generally reduce mass-movement erosion by an order of magnitude. This provides significant benefits for erosion control where there are high natural rates of erosion. Benefits are especially large in catchments where high sedimentation is increasing flood risk and degrading aquatic ecosystems. The generally high growth rates of P. radiata in New Zealand (8.5 tonnesCha(-1)yr(-1) on average for existing forest) add significant environmental benefits of carbon sinks to climate regulation. However, the reduction of water yield associated with new forests (between 30% and 50%) can neutralise these benefits in catchments where there is demand for irrigation water, such as the eastern foothills of the Southern Alps and the tussock grasslands in the South Island.

Integrating environmental and socio-economic indicators of a linked catchment-coastal system using variable environmental intensity.

Can we develop land use policy that balances the conflicting views of stakeholders in a catchment while moving toward long term sustainability? Adaptive management provides a strategy for this whereby measures of catchment performance are compared against performance goals in order to progressively improve policy. However, the feedback loop of adaptive management is often slow and irreversible impacts may result before policy has been adapted. In contrast, integrated modelling of future land use policy provides rapid feedback and potentially improves the chance of avoiding unwanted collapse events. Replacing measures of catchment performance with modelled catchment performance has usually required the dynamic linking of many models, both biophysical and socio-economic-and this requires much effort in software development. As an alternative, we propose the use of variable environmental intensity (defined as the ratio of environmental impact over economic output) in a loose coupling of models to provide a sufficient level of integration while avoiding significant effort required for software development. This model construct was applied to the Motueka Catchment of New Zealand where several biophysical (riverine water quantity, sediment, E. coli faecal bacteria, trout numbers, nitrogen transport, marine productivity) models, a socio-economic (gross output, gross margin, job numbers) model, and an agent-based model were linked. An extreme set of land use scenarios (historic, present, and intensive) were applied to this modelling framework. Results suggest that the catchment is presently in a near optimal land use configuration that is unlikely to benefit from further intensification. This would quickly put stress on water quantity (at low flow) and water quality (E. coli). To date, this model evaluation is based on a theoretical test that explores the logical implications of intensification at an unlikely extreme in order to assess the implications of likely growth trajectories from present use. While this has largely been a desktop exercise, it would also be possible to use this framework to model and explore the biophysical and economic impacts of individual or collective catchment visions. We are currently investigating the use of the model in this type of application.