Identifying the Optimum Strategy for Identifying Adults and Children With Celiac Disease: A Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Celiac disease (CD) is thought to affect around 1% of people in the United Kingdom, but only approximately 30% are diagnosed. The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying adults and children with CD in terms of who to test and which tests to use. METHODS: A decision tree and Markov model were used to describe testing strategies and model long-term consequences of CD. The analysis compared a selection of pre-test probabilities of CD above which patients should be screened, as well as the use of different serological tests, with or without genetic testing. Value of information analysis was used to prioritize parameters for future research. RESULTS: Using serological testing alone in adults, immunoglobulin A (IgA) tissue transglutaminase (tTG) at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was most cost-effective. If combining serological testing with genetic testing, human leukocyte antigen combined with IgA tTG at a 5% pre-test probability was most cost-effective. In children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leukocyte antigen plus IgA tTG. Value of information analysis highlighted the probability of late diagnosis of CD and the accuracy of serological tests as important parameters. The analysis also suggested prioritizing research in adult women over adult men or children. CONCLUSIONS: For adults, these cost-effectiveness results suggest UK National Screening Committee Criteria for population-based screening for CD should be explored. Substantial uncertainty in the results indicate a high value in conducting further research.

Early-Life Adversity Leaves Its Imprint on the Oral Microbiome for More Than 20 Years and Is Associated with Long-Term Immune Changes.

The early-life microbiome (ELM) interacts with the psychosocial environment, in particular during early-life adversity (ELA), defining life-long health trajectories. The ELM also plays a significant role in the maturation of the immune system. We hypothesised that, in this context, the resilience of the oral microbiomes, despite being composed of diverse and distinct communities, allows them to retain an imprint of the early environment. Using 16S amplicon sequencing on the EpiPath cohort, we demonstrate that ELA leaves an imprint on both the salivary and buccal oral microbiome 24 years after exposure to adversity. Furthermore, the changes in both communities were associated with increased activation, maturation, and senescence of both innate and adaptive immune cells, although the interaction was partly dependent on prior herpesviridae exposure and current smoking. Our data suggest the presence of multiple links between ELA, Immunosenescence, and cytotoxicity that occur through long-term changes in the microbiome.

What methods are being used to create an evidence base on the use of laboratory tests to monitor long-term conditions in primary care? A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown unwarranted variation in test ordering among GP practices and regions, which may lead to patient harm and increased health care costs. There is currently no robust evidence base to inform guidelines on monitoring long-term conditions. OBJECTIVES: To map the extent and nature of research that provides evidence on the use of laboratory tests to monitor long-term conditions in primary care, and to identify gaps in existing research. METHODS: We performed a scoping review-a relatively new approach for mapping research evidence across broad topics-using data abstraction forms and charting data according to a scoping framework. We searched CINAHL, EMBASE and MEDLINE to April 2019. We included studies that aimed to optimize the use of laboratory tests and determine costs, patient harm or variation related to testing in a primary care population with long-term conditions. RESULTS: Ninety-four studies were included. Forty percent aimed to describe variation in test ordering and 36% to investigate test performance. Renal function tests (35%), HbA1c (23%) and lipids (17%) were the most studied laboratory tests. Most studies applied a cohort design using routinely collected health care data (49%). We found gaps in research on strategies to optimize test use to improve patient outcomes, optimal testing intervals and patient harms caused by over-testing. CONCLUSIONS: Future research needs to address these gaps in evidence. High-level evidence is missing, i.e. randomized controlled trials comparing one monitoring strategy to another or quasi-experimental designs such as interrupted time series analysis if trials are not feasible.

Glucocorticoid receptor signaling in leukocytes after early life adversity.

Early life adversity (ELA) has been associated with inflammation and immunosenescence, as well as hyporeactivity of the HPA axis. Because the immune system and the HPA axis are tightly intertwined around the glucocorticoid receptor (GR), we examined peripheral GR functionality in the EpiPath cohort among participants who either had been exposed to ELA (separation from parents and/or institutionalization followed by adoption; n = 40) or had been reared by their biological parents (n = 72).Expression of the strict GR target genes FKBP5 and GILZ as well as total and 1F and 1H GR transcripts were similar between groups. Furthermore, there were no differences in GR sensitivity, examined by the effects of dexamethasone on IL6 production in LPS-stimulated whole blood. Although we did not find differences in methylation at the GR 1F exon or promoter region, we identified a region of the GR 1H promoter (CpG 1-9) that showed lower methylation levels in ELA.Our results suggest that peripheral GR signaling was unperturbed in our cohort and the observed immune phenotype does not appear to be secondary to an altered GR response to the perturbed HPA axis and glucocorticoid (GC) profile, although we are limited in our measures of GR activity and time points.

GP's perspectives on laboratory test use for monitoring long-term conditions: an audit of current testing practice.

BACKGROUND: We have shown previously that current recommendations in UK guidelines for monitoring long-term conditions are largely based on expert opinion. Due to a lack of robust evidence on optimal monitoring strategies and testing intervals, the guidelines are unclear and incomplete. This uncertainty may underly variation in testing that has been observed across the UK between GP practices and regions. METHODS: Our objective was to audit current testing practices of GPs in the UK; in particular, perspectives on laboratory tests for monitoring long-term conditions, the workload, and how confident GPs are in ordering and interpreting these tests. We designed an online survey consisting of multiple-choice and open-ended questions that was promoted on social media and in newsletters targeting GPs practicing in UK. The survey was live between October-November 2019. The results were analysed using a mixed-methods approach. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 550 GPs, of whom 69% had more than 10 years of experience. The majority spent more than 30 min per day on testing (78%), but only half of the respondents felt confident in dealing with abnormal results (53%). There was a high level of disagreement for whether liver function tests and full blood counts should be done 'routinely', 'sometimes', or 'never' in patients with a certain long-term condition. The free text comments revealed three common themes: (1) pressures that promote over-testing, i.e. guidelines or protocols, workload from secondary care, fear of missing something, patient expectations; (2) negative consequences of over-testing, i.e. increased workload and patient harm; and (3) uncertainties due to lack of evidence and unclear guidelines. CONCLUSION: These results confirm the variation that has been observed in test ordering data. The results also show that most GPs spent a significant part of their day ordering and interpreting monitoring tests. The lack of confidence in knowing how to act on abnormal test results underlines the urgent need for robust evidence on optimal testing and the development of clear and unambiguous testing recommendations. Uncertainties surrounding optimal testing has resulted in an over-use of tests, which leads to a waste of resources, increased GP workload and potential patient harm.

Proinflammatory T Cell Status Associated with Early Life Adversity.

Early life adversity (ELA) has been associated with an increased risk for diseases in which the immune system plays a critical role. The ELA immune phenotype is characterized by inflammation, impaired cellular immunity, and immunosenescence. However, data on cell-specific immune effects are largely absent. Additionally, stress systems and health behaviors are altered in ELA, which may contribute to the generation of the ELA immune phenotype. The present investigation tested cell-specific immune differences in relationship to the ELA immune phenotype, altered stress parameters, and health behaviors in individuals with ELA (n = 42) and those without a history of ELA (control, n = 73). Relative number and activation status (CD25, CD69, HLA-DR, CD11a, CD11b) of monocytes, NK cells, B cells, T cells, and their main subsets were assessed by flow cytometry. ELA was associated with significantly reduced numbers of CD69+CD8+ T cells (p = 0.022), increased numbers of HLA-DR+ CD4 and HLA-DR+ CD8 T cells (p < 0.001), as well as increased numbers of CD25+CD8+ T cells (p = 0.036). ELA also showed a trend toward higher numbers of CCR4+CXCR3-CCR6+ CD4 T cells. Taken together, our data suggest an elevated state of immune activation in ELA, in which particularly T cells are affected. Although several aspects of the ELA immune phenotype were related to increased activation markers, neither stress nor health-risk behaviors explained the observed group differences. Thus, the state of immune activation in ELA does not seem to be secondary to alterations in the stress system or health-risk behaviors, but rather a primary effect of early life programming on immune cells.

Interventions for preventing obesity in children.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of childhood obesity is an international public health priority given the significant impact of obesity on acute and chronic diseases, general health, development and well-being. The international evidence base for strategies to prevent obesity is very large and is accumulating rapidly. This is an update of a previous review. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness of a range of interventions that include diet or physical activity components, or both, designed to prevent obesity in children. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsychINFO and CINAHL in June 2015. We re-ran the search from June 2015 to January 2018 and included a search of trial registers. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of diet or physical activity interventions, or combined diet and physical activity interventions, for preventing overweight or obesity in children (0-17 years) that reported outcomes at a minimum of 12 weeks from baseline. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently extracted data, assessed risk-of-bias and evaluated overall certainty of the evidence using GRADE. We extracted data on adiposity outcomes, sociodemographic characteristics, adverse events, intervention process and costs. We meta-analysed data as guided by the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions and presented separate meta-analyses by age group for child 0 to 5 years, 6 to 12 years, and 13 to 18 years for zBMI and BMI. MAIN RESULTS: We included 153 RCTs, mostly from the USA or Europe. Thirteen studies were based in upper-middle-income countries (UMIC: Brazil, Ecuador, Lebanon, Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, US-Mexico border), and one was based in a lower middle-income country (LMIC: Egypt). The majority (85) targeted children aged 6 to 12 years.Children aged 0-5 years: There is moderate-certainty evidence from 16 RCTs (n = 6261) that diet combined with physical activity interventions, compared with control, reduced BMI (mean difference (MD) -0.07 kg/m2, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.14 to -0.01), and had a similar effect (11 RCTs, n = 5536) on zBMI (MD -0.11, 95% CI -0.21 to 0.01). Neither diet (moderate-certainty evidence) nor physical activity interventions alone (high-certainty evidence) compared with control reduced BMI (physical activity alone: MD -0.22 kg/m2, 95% CI -0.44 to 0.01) or zBMI (diet alone: MD -0.14, 95% CI -0.32 to 0.04; physical activity alone: MD 0.01, 95% CI -0.10 to 0.13) in children aged 0-5 years.Children aged 6 to 12 years: There is moderate-certainty evidence from 14 RCTs (n = 16,410) that physical activity interventions, compared with control, reduced BMI (MD -0.10 kg/m2, 95% CI -0.14 to -0.05). However, there is moderate-certainty evidence that they had little or no effect on zBMI (MD -0.02, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.02). There is low-certainty evidence from 20 RCTs (n = 24,043) that diet combined with physical activity interventions, compared with control, reduced zBMI (MD -0.05 kg/m2, 95% CI -0.10 to -0.01). There is high-certainty evidence that diet interventions, compared with control, had little impact on zBMI (MD -0.03, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.01) or BMI (-0.02 kg/m2, 95% CI -0.11 to 0.06).Children aged 13 to 18 years: There is very low-certainty evidence that physical activity interventions, compared with control reduced BMI (MD -1.53 kg/m2, 95% CI -2.67 to -0.39; 4 RCTs; n = 720); and low-certainty evidence for a reduction in zBMI (MD -0.2, 95% CI -0.3 to -0.1; 1 RCT; n = 100). There is low-certainty evidence from eight RCTs (n = 16,583) that diet combined with physical activity interventions, compared with control, had no effect on BMI (MD -0.02 kg/m2, 95% CI -0.10 to 0.05); or zBMI (MD 0.01, 95% CI -0.05 to 0.07; 6 RCTs; n = 16,543). Evidence from two RCTs (low-certainty evidence; n = 294) found no effect of diet interventions on BMI.Direct comparisons of interventions: Two RCTs reported data directly comparing diet with either physical activity or diet combined with physical activity interventions for children aged 6 to 12 years and reported no differences.Heterogeneity was apparent in the results from all three age groups, which could not be entirely explained by setting or duration of the interventions. Where reported, interventions did not appear to result in adverse effects (16 RCTs) or increase health inequalities (gender: 30 RCTs; socioeconomic status: 18 RCTs), although relatively few studies examined these factors.Re-running the searches in January 2018 identified 315 records with potential relevance to this review, which will be synthesised in the next update. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Interventions that include diet combined with physical activity interventions can reduce the risk of obesity (zBMI and BMI) in young children aged 0 to 5 years. There is weaker evidence from a single study that dietary interventions may be beneficial.However, interventions that focus only on physical activity do not appear to be effective in children of this age. In contrast, interventions that only focus on physical activity can reduce the risk of obesity (BMI) in children aged 6 to 12 years, and adolescents aged 13 to 18 years. In these age groups, there is no evidence that interventions that only focus on diet are effective, and some evidence that diet combined with physical activity interventions may be effective. Importantly, this updated review also suggests that interventions to prevent childhood obesity do not appear to result in adverse effects or health inequalities.The review will not be updated in its current form. To manage the growth in RCTs of child obesity prevention interventions, in future, this review will be split into three separate reviews based on child age.

Exploring factors influencing quality of life variability among individuals with coeliac disease: an online survey.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with coeliac disease (CD) need to follow a strict gluten-free diet to manage symptoms and prevent complications. Restrictions imposed by the diet can be challenging and affect quality of life (QoL). We explored sources of variation in QoL among patients with CD. DESIGN: We conducted an online survey of coeliac patients in the UK, including a CD-specific QoL tool (CD-QOL V.1.0), questions on diet adherence and an optional comment box at the end. The survey was disseminated via social media and went live between January and March 2021. We performed multiple linear regression and free text analysis. RESULTS: We found a median CD-QOL score of 61 (IQR 44-76, range 4-100, n=215) suggesting good QoL (Good >59); however, the individual QoL scores varied significantly. Regression analyses showed that people who found diet adherence difficult and people adhering very strictly had a lower QoL. Free text comments suggested that people who adhered very strictly may do so because they have symptoms with minimal gluten exposure. People who found diet adherence difficult may be people who only recently started the diet and were still adjusting to its impact. Comments also highlighted that individuals with CD often perceive a lack of adequate follow-up care and support after diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Better support and follow-up care is needed for people with CD to help them adjust to a gluten-free diet and minimise the impact on their QoL. Better education and increased awareness are needed among food businesses regarding cross-contamination to reduce anxiety and accidental gluten exposure.

Understanding the patient's experience of coeliac disease diagnosis: a qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: Coeliac disease (CD) presents with non-specific symptoms, and delays to diagnosis are common. The traditional diagnostic pathway involves serological testing followed by endoscopic biopsy; however, the evidence is increasing about the effectiveness of a diagnosis without the need for a biopsy. AIM: To understand the patient's experience of being diagnosed with CD. DESIGN AND SETTING: A qualitative study was conducted, which involved semi-structured interviews with adults diagnosed with CD living in the UK. METHOD: Participants (n = 20) were purposefully sampled from 200 adults who had completed a diagnostic confidence survey. Interviews were conducted via video-conferencing software (Zoom), recorded, and transcribed verbatim. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Interviewees faced pre-diagnostic uncertainty, presenting with non-specific symptoms that many experienced for several years and may have normalised. GPs often attributed their symptoms to alternative diagnoses, commonly, irritable bowel syndrome or anaemia. Investigations caused further uncertainty, with half of the interviewees unaware that their initial serology included a test for CD, and reporting long waits for endoscopy and challenges managing their diet around the procedure. Their uncertainty reduced once they received their biopsy results. Endoscopy was presented as the 'gold standard' for diagnosis and most interviewees believed that the procedure was necessary for diagnostic confidence and conviction in a lifelong gluten-free diet. CONCLUSION: Patients experience uncertainty on the pathway to a diagnosis of CD. GPs could improve their experiences by being mindful of the possibility of CD and sharing information about serological testing. Policy and guidance should address the time to endoscopy and diet during diagnosis. If diagnosis without biopsy is adopted, then consideration should be given to clinical pathway implementation and communication approaches to reduce patient uncertainty.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the accuracy of McIsaac and Centor score in patients presenting to secondary care with pharyngitis.

BACKGROUND: Centor and McIsaac scores are clinical prediction rules for diagnosing group A streptococcus (GAS) infection in patients with pharyngitis. Their recommended thresholds vary between guidelines. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the McIsaac and Centor scores to diagnose GAS pharyngitis and evaluate their impact on antibiotic prescribing at each threshold in patients presenting to secondary care. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science were searched from inception to September 2022. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies of patients presenting with acute pharyngitis to emergency or outpatient clinics that estimated the accuracy of McIsaac or Centor scores against throat cultures and/or rapid antigen detection tests (RADT) as reference standards. TESTS: Centor or McIsaac score. REFERENCE STANDARD: Throat cultures and/or RADT. ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS: Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies. METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS: The sensitivities and specificities of the McIsaac and Centor scores were pooled at each threshold using bivariate random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Fourteen studies were included (eight McIsaac and six Centor scores). Eight studies had unclear and six had a high risk of bias. The McIsaac score had higher estimated sensitivity and lower specificity relative to Centor scores at equivalent thresholds but with wide and overlapping confidence regions. Using either score as a triage to RADT to decide antibiotic treatment would reduce antibiotic prescription to patients with non-GAS pharyngitis relative to RADT test for everyone, but also reduce antibiotic prescription to patients with GAS. DISCUSSION: Centor and McIsaac scores are equally ineffective at triaging patients who need antibiotics presenting with pharyngitis at hospitals. At high thresholds, too many true positive cases are missed, whereas at low thresholds, too many false positives are treated, leading to the over prescription of antibiotics. The former may be compensated by adequate safety netting by clinicians, ensuring that patients can seek help if symptoms worsen.

Use of drugs for hyperlipidaemia and diabetes and risk of primary and secondary brain tumours: nested case-control studies using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have suggested that fibrates and glitazones may have a role in brain tumour prevention. We examined if there is support for these observations using primary care records from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). DESIGN: We conducted two nested case-control studies using primary and secondary brain tumours identified within CPRD between 2000 and 2016. We selected cases and controls among the population of individuals who had been treated with any anti-diabetic or anti-hyperlipidaemic medication to reduce confounding by indication. SETTING: Adults older than 18 years registered with a general practitioner in the UK contributing data to CPRD. RESULTS: We identified 7496 individuals with any brain tumour (4471 primary; 3025 secondary) in total. After restricting cases and controls to those prescribed any anti-diabetic or anti-hyperlipidaemic medication, there were 1950 cases and 7791 controls in the fibrate and 480 cases with 1920 controls in the glitazone analyses. Longer use of glitazones compared with all other anti-diabetic medications was associated with a reduced risk of primary (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.89 per year, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.98), secondary (aOR 0.87 per year, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.99) or combined brain tumours (aOR 0.88 per year, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.95). There was little evidence that fibrate exposure was associated with risk of either primary or secondary brain tumours. CONCLUSIONS: Longer exposure to glitazones was associated with reduced primary and secondary brain tumour risk. Further basic science and population-based research should explore this finding in greater detail, in terms of replication and mechanistic studies.

The oral microbiome is associated with HPA axis response to a psychosocial stressor.

Intense psychosocial stress during early life has a detrimental effect on health-disease balance in later life. Simultaneously, despite its sensitivity to stress, the developing microbiome contributes to long-term health. Following stress exposure, HPA-axis activation regulates the "fight or flight" response with the release of glucose and cortisol. Here, we investigated the interaction between the oral microbiome and the stress response. We used a cohort of 115 adults, mean age 24, who either experienced institutionalisation and adoption (n = 40) or were non-adopted controls (n = 75). Glucose and cortisol measurements were taken from participants following an extended socially evaluated cold pressor test (seCPT) at multiple time points. The cohort´s oral microbiome was profiled via 16S-V4 sequencing on microbial DNA from saliva and buccal samples. Using mixed-effect linear regressions, we identified 12 genera that exhibited an interaction with host's cortisol-glucose response to stress, strongly influencing intensity and clearance of cortisol and glucose following stress exposure. Particularly, the identified taxa influenced the glucose and cortisol release profiles and kinetics following seCPT exposure. In conclusion, our study provided evidence for the oral microbiome modifying the effect of stress on the HPA-axis and human metabolism, as shown in glucose-cortisol time series data.

Variation in laboratory testing for patients with long-term conditions: a longitudinal cohort study in UK primary care.

BACKGROUND: Use of laboratory testing has increased in the UK over the past few decades, with considerable geographical variation. AIM: To evaluate what laboratory tests are used to monitor people with hypertension, type 2 (T2) diabetes, or chronic kidney disease (CKD) and assess variation in test use in UK primary care. DESIGN & SETTING: Longitudinal cohort study of people registered with UK general practices between June 2013 and May 2018 and previously diagnosed with hypertension, T2 diabetes, or CKD. METHOD: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care data linked to ethnic group and deprivation was used to examine testing rates over time, by GP practice, age, sex, ethnic group, and socioeconomic deprivation, with age-sex standardisation. RESULTS: Nearly 1 million patients were included, and more than 27 million tests. The most ordered tests were for renal function (1463 per 1000 person-years), liver function (1063 per 1000 person-years), and full blood count (FBC; 996 per 1000 person-years). There was evidence of undertesting (compared with current guidelines) for HbA1c and albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) or microalbumin, and potential overtesting of lipids, FBC, liver function, and thyroid function. Some GP practices had up to 27 times higher testing rates than others (HbA1c testing among patients with CKD). CONCLUSION: Testing rates are no longer increasing, but they are not always within the guidelines for monitoring long-term conditions (LTCs). There was considerable variation by GP practice, indicating uncertainty over the most appropriate testing frequencies for different conditions. Standardising the monitoring of LTCs based on the latest evidence would provide greater consistency of access to monitoring tests.

Implementing Germ Defence digital behaviour change intervention via all primary care practices in England to reduce respiratory infections during the COVID-19 pandemic: an efficient cluster randomised controlled trial using the OpenSAFELY platform.

BACKGROUND: Germ Defence ( www.germdefence.org ) is an evidence-based interactive website that promotes behaviour change for infection control within households. To maximise the potential of Germ Defence to effectively reduce the spread of COVID-19, the intervention needed to be implemented at scale rapidly. METHODS: With NHS England approval, we conducted an efficient two-arm (1:1 ratio) cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) to examine the effectiveness of randomising implementation of Germ Defence via general practitioner (GP) practices across England, UK, compared with usual care to disseminate Germ Defence to patients. GP practices randomised to the intervention arm (n = 3292) were emailed and asked to disseminate Germ Defence to all adult patients via mobile phone text, email or social media. Usual care arm GP practices (n = 3287) maintained standard management for the 4-month trial period and then asked to share Germ Defence with their adult patients. The primary outcome was the rate of GP presentations for respiratory tract infections (RTI) per patient. Secondary outcomes comprised rates of acute RTIs, confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses and suspected COVID-19 diagnoses, COVID-19 symptoms, gastrointestinal infection diagnoses, antibiotic usage and hospital admissions. The impact of the intervention on outcome rates was assessed using negative binomial regression modelling within the OpenSAFELY platform. The uptake of the intervention by GP practice and by patients was measured via website analytics. RESULTS: Germ Defence was used 310,731 times. The average website satisfaction score was 7.52 (0-10 not at all to very satisfied, N = 9933). There was no evidence of a difference in the rate of RTIs between intervention and control practices (rate ratio (RR) 1.01, 95% CI 0.96, 1.06, p = 0.70). This was similar to all other eight health outcomes. Patient engagement within intervention arm practices ranged from 0 to 48% of a practice list. CONCLUSIONS: While the RCT did not demonstrate a difference in health outcomes, we demonstrated that rapid large-scale implementation of a digital behavioural intervention is possible and can be evaluated with a novel efficient prospective RCT methodology analysing routinely collected patient data entirely within a trusted research environment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered in the ISRCTN registry (14602359) on 12 August 2020.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: the accuracy of serological tests to support the diagnosis of coeliac disease.

BACKGROUND: There is growing support for a biopsy avoidant approach to diagnose coeliac disease in both children and adults, using a serological diagnosis instead. AIMS: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of serological tests for coeliac disease in adults and children. METHODS: Seven electronic databases were searched between January 1990 and August 2020. Eligible diagnostic studies evaluated the accuracy of serological tests for coeliac disease against duodenal biopsy. Risk of bias assessment was performed using QUADAS-2. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate serology sensitivity and specificity at the most commonly reported thresholds. RESULTS: 113 studies (n = 28,338) were included, all in secondary care populations. A subset of studies were included in meta-analyses due to variations in diagnostic thresholds. Summary sensitivity and specificity of immunoglobulin A (IgA) anti-tissue transglutaminase were 90.7% (95% confidence interval: 87.3%, 93.2%) and 87.4% (84.4%, 90.0%) in adults (5 studies) and 97.7% (91.0%, 99.4%) and 70.2% (39.3%, 89.6%) in children (6 studies); and of IgA endomysial antibodies were 88.0% (75.2%, 94.7%) and 99.6% (92.3%, 100%) in adults (5 studies) and 94.5% (88.9%, 97.3%) and 93.8% (85.2%, 97.5%) in children (5 studies). CONCLUSIONS: Anti-tissue transglutaminase sensitivity appears to be sufficient to rule out coeliac disease in children. The high specificity of endomysial antibody in adults supports its use to rule in coeliac disease. This evidence underpins the current development of clinical guidelines for a serological diagnosis of coeliac disease. Studies in primary care are needed to evaluate serological testing strategies in this setting.

Development and external validation of a clinical prediction model to aid coeliac disease diagnosis in primary care: An observational study.

Background: Coeliac disease (CD) affects approximately 1% of the population, although only a fraction of patients are diagnosed. Our objective was to develop diagnostic prediction models to help decide who should be offered testing for CD in primary care. Methods: Logistic regression models were developed in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD (between Sep 9, 1987 and Apr 4, 2021, n=107,075) and externally validated in CPRD Aurum (between Jan 1, 1995 and Jan 15, 2021, n=227,915), two UK primary care databases, using (and controlling for) 1:4 nested case-control designs. Candidate predictors included symptoms and chronic conditions identified in current guidelines and using a systematic review of the literature. We used elastic-net regression to further refine the models. Findings: The prediction model included 24, 24, and 21 predictors for children, women, and men, respectively. For children, the strongest predictors were type 1 diabetes, Turner syndrome, IgA deficiency, or first-degree relatives with CD. For women and men, these were anaemia and first-degree relatives. In the development dataset, the models showed good discrimination with a c-statistic of 0·84 (95% CI 0·83-0·84) in children, 0·77 (0·77-0·78) in women, and 0·81 (0·81-0·82) in men. External validation discrimination was lower, potentially because 'first-degree relative' was not recorded in the dataset used for validation. Model calibration was poor, tending to overestimate CD risk in all three groups in both datasets. Interpretation: These prediction models could help identify individuals with an increased risk of CD in relatively low prevalence populations such as primary care. Offering a serological test to these patients could increase case finding for CD. However, this involves offering tests to more people than is currently done. Further work is needed in prospective cohorts to refine and confirm the models and assess clinical and cost effectiveness. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme (grant number NIHR129020).

Defining the optimum strategy for identifying adults and children with coeliac disease: systematic review and economic modelling.

BACKGROUND: Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disorder triggered by ingesting gluten. It affects approximately 1% of the UK population, but only one in three people is thought to have a diagnosis. Untreated coeliac disease may lead to malnutrition, anaemia, osteoporosis and lymphoma. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to define at-risk groups and determine the cost-effectiveness of active case-finding strategies in primary care. DESIGN: (1) Systematic review of the accuracy of potential diagnostic indicators for coeliac disease. (2) Routine data analysis to develop prediction models for identification of people who may benefit from testing for coeliac disease. (3) Systematic review of the accuracy of diagnostic tests for coeliac disease. (4) Systematic review of the accuracy of genetic tests for coeliac disease (literature search conducted in April 2021). (5) Online survey to identify diagnostic thresholds for testing, starting treatment and referral for biopsy. (6) Economic modelling to identify the cost-effectiveness of different active case-finding strategies, informed by the findings from previous objectives. DATA SOURCES: For the first systematic review, the following databases were searched from 1997 to April 2021: MEDLINE® (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA), Embase® (Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands), Cochrane Library, Web of Science™ (Clarivate™, Philadelphia, PA, USA), the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform ( WHO ICTRP ) and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For the second systematic review, the following databases were searched from January 1990 to August 2020: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Kleijnen Systematic Reviews ( KSR ) Evidence, WHO ICTRP and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For prediction model development, Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and a subcohort of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were used; for estimates for the economic models, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum was used. REVIEW METHODS: For review 1, cohort and case-control studies reporting on a diagnostic indicator in a population with and a population without coeliac disease were eligible. For review 2, diagnostic cohort studies including patients presenting with coeliac disease symptoms who were tested with serological tests for coeliac disease and underwent a duodenal biopsy as reference standard were eligible. In both reviews, risk of bias was assessed using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies 2 tool. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were fitted, in which binomial likelihoods for the numbers of true positives and true negatives were assumed. RESULTS: People with dermatitis herpetiformis, a family history of coeliac disease, migraine, anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis or chronic liver disease are 1.5-2 times more likely than the general population to have coeliac disease; individual gastrointestinal symptoms were not useful for identifying coeliac disease. For children, women and men, prediction models included 24, 24 and 21 indicators of coeliac disease, respectively. The models showed good discrimination between patients with and patients without coeliac disease, but performed less well when externally validated. Serological tests were found to have good diagnostic accuracy for coeliac disease. Immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase had the highest sensitivity and endomysial antibody the highest specificity. There was little improvement when tests were used in combination. Survey respondents (n = 472) wanted to be 66% certain of the diagnosis from a blood test before starting a gluten-free diet if symptomatic, and 90% certain if asymptomatic. Cost-effectiveness analyses found that, among adults, and using serological testing alone, immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase was most cost-effective at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening). Strategies using immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody plus human leucocyte antigen or human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability had similar cost-effectiveness results, which were also similar to the cost-effectiveness results of immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase at a 1% pre-test probability. The most practical alternative for implementation within the NHS is likely to be a combination of human leucocyte antigen and immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing among those with a pre-test probability above 1.5%. Among children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase, but there was uncertainty around the most cost-effective pre-test probability. There was substantial uncertainty in economic model results, which means that there would be great value in conducting further research. LIMITATIONS: The interpretation of meta-analyses was limited by the substantial heterogeneity between the included studies, and most included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias. The main limitations of the prediction models were that we were restricted to diagnostic indicators that were recorded by general practitioners and that, because coeliac disease is underdiagnosed, it is also under-reported in health-care data. The cost-effectiveness model is a simplification of coeliac disease and modelled an average cohort rather than individuals. Evidence was weak on the probability of routine coeliac disease diagnosis, the accuracy of serological and genetic tests and the utility of a gluten-free diet. CONCLUSIONS: Population screening with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase (1% pre-test probability) and of immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody followed by human leucocyte antigen testing or human leucocyte antigen testing followed by immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability appear to have similar cost-effectiveness results. As decisions to implement population screening cannot be made based on our economic analysis alone, and given the practical challenges of identifying patients with higher pre-test probabilities, we recommend that human leucocyte antigen combined with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing should be considered for adults with at least a 1.5% pre-test probability of coeliac disease, equivalent to having at least one predictor. A more targeted strategy of 10% pre-test probability is recommended for children (e.g. children with anaemia). FUTURE WORK: Future work should consider whether or not population-based screening for coeliac disease could meet the UK National Screening Committee criteria and whether or not it necessitates a long-term randomised controlled trial of screening strategies. Large prospective cohort studies in which all participants receive accurate tests for coeliac disease are needed. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019115506 and CRD42020170766. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 44. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?: Around 1 in 100 people in the UK has coeliac disease. It develops when the immune system attacks the lining of the gut after eating gluten. It is thought that only one in three people with coeliac disease is currently diagnosed. Without treatment, people with coeliac disease are at an increased risk of anaemia, osteoporosis and cancer. Treatment is a lifelong gluten-free diet. Diagnosing coeliac disease is difficult. Some people have minimal or non-specific symptoms, such as pain, indigestion or bloating, so knowing who to test is tricky. WHAT DID WE DO?: We wanted to establish who should be tested for coeliac disease, what tests should be used and whether or not invasive testing (a gut biopsy) is necessary for everyone. We looked at existing studies and data from general practices, and conducted an online survey, and brought everything together in an economic (cost) analysis. WHAT DID WE FIND?: Using individual symptoms is not helpful to identify people who may have coeliac disease. People with coeliac disease are more likely to have a combination of symptoms. People with anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis, thyroid disorders, immunoglobulin A deficiency, Down syndrome, Turner syndrome or a family history of coeliac disease are more likely to have coeliac disease and should be offered tests. Common blood tests for coeliac disease are very accurate, particularly when used in combination with genetic testing. Blood tests alone can be used for diagnosis for some people. Others will need a biopsy to confirm the diagnosis. Whether or not this is needed depends on their risk of coeliac disease: whether or not they have symptoms and whether or not they have a condition that puts them at higher risk. Shared decision-making is important for individuals considering an invasive test, depending on how certain they want to be about their diagnosis before starting a gluten-free diet.

Effects of an integrated respiratory service on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease hospital admissions in England: An interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effects of an admission avoidance pathway within a new integrated respiratory service on the number of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)-related hospital admissions in England. METHODS: We used interrupted time series analysis to estimate the effects of the admission avoidance pathway on COPD hospital admissions, length of stay, and 30-day readmissions. We included all unplanned admissions with COPD as primary diagnosis using Hospital Episode Statistics, comparing the intervention region with a demographically similar control region in the two years before and one year after the implementation of the new service. RESULTS: Unplanned hospital admissions for COPD exacerbations followed a clear seasonal pattern, peaking in early winter. We found no evidence that the admission avoidance pathway influenced the rate of hospital admissions or 30-day readmissions. We found weak evidence of a trend change in length of stay following the launch of the admission avoidance pathway. CONCLUSIONS: Our study adds to the growing body of evidence that suggests that additional admission avoidance capacity alone does not lead to a measurable reduction in admissions or length of stay. Further investigation is required to understand the reasons why. A longer follow-up may be required to see some of the potential benefits.

Novel point-of-care biomarker combination tests to differentiate acute bacterial from viral respiratory tract infections to guide antibiotic prescribing: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are the most common reason to seek medical care, with many patients receiving inappropriate antibiotics. Novel testing approaches to identify aetiology at the point-of-care are required to accurately guide antibiotic treatment. OBJECTIVE: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of biomarker combinations to rapidly differentiate between acute bacterial or viral RTI aetiology. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science databases were searched to February 2021. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Diagnostic accuracy studies comparing accuracy of point-of-care and rapid diagnostic tests in primary or secondary care, consisting of biomarker combinations, to identify bacterial or viral aetiology of RTI. METHODS: Risk of bias was assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool. Sensitivity and specificity of tests reported by more than one study were meta-analysed using a random effects model. RESULTS: Twenty observational studies (3514 patients) were identified. Eighteen were judged at high risk of bias. For bacterial aetiologies, sensitivity ranged from 61% to 100% and specificity from 18% to 96%. For viral aetiologies, sensitivity ranged from 59% to 97% and specificity from 74% to 100%. Studies evaluating two commercial tests were meta-analysed. For ImmunoXpert, the summary sensitivity and specificity were 85% (95% CI 75%-91%, k = 4) and 86% (95% CI 73%-93%, k = 4) for bacterial infections, and 90% (95% CI 79%-96%, k = 3) and 92% (95% CI 83%-96%, k = 3) for viral infections, respectively. FebriDx had pooled sensitivity and specificity of 84% (95% CI 75%-90%, k = 4) and 93% (95% CI 90%-95%, k = 4) for bacterial infections, and 87% (95% CI 72%-95%; k = 4) and 82% (95% CI 66%-86%, k = 4) for viral infections, respectively. CONCLUSION: Combinations of biomarkers show potential clinical utility in discriminating the aetiology of RTIs. However, the limitations in the evidence base, due to a high proportion of studies with high risk of bias, preclude firm conclusions. Future research should be in primary care and evaluate patient outcomes and cost-effectiveness with experimental study designs. CLINICAL TRIAL: PROSPERO registration number: CRD42020178973.

Unbiased Screening Identifies Functional Differences in NK Cells After Early Life Psychosocial Stress.

Early Life Adversity (ELA) is closely associated with the risk for developing diseases later in life, such as autoimmune diseases, type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. In humans, early parental separation, physical and sexual abuse or low social-economic status during childhood are known to have great impact on brain development, in the hormonal system and immune responses. Maternal deprivation (MD) is the closest animal model available to the human situation. This paradigm induces long lasting behavioral effects, causes changes in the HPA axis and affects the immune system. However, the mechanisms underlying changes in the immune response after ELA are still not fully understood. In this study we investigated how ELA changes the immune system, through an unbiased analysis, viSNE, and addressed specially the NK immune cell population and its functionality. We have demonstrated that maternal separation, in both humans and rats, significantly affects the sensitivity of the immune system in adulthood. Particularly, NK cells' profile and response to target cell lines are significantly changed after ELA. These immune cells in rats are not only less cytotoxic towards YAC-1 cells, but also show a clear increase in the expression of maturation markers after 3h of maternal separation. Similarly, individuals who suffered from ELA display significant changes in the cytotoxic profile of NK cells together with decreased degranulation capacity. These results suggest that one of the key mechanisms by which the immune system becomes impaired after ELA might be due to a shift on the senescent state of the cells, specifically NK cells. Elucidation of such a mechanism highlights the importance of ELA prevention and how NK targeted immunotherapy might help attenuating ELA consequences.