Forest-goers as a heterogeneous population at high-risk for malaria: a case-control study in Aceh Province, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: A major challenge to malaria elimination is identifying and targeting populations that are harbouring residual infections and contributing to persistent transmission. In many near-elimination settings in Southeast Asia, it is known that forest-goers are at higher risk for malaria infection, but detailed information on their behaviours and exposures is not available. METHODS: In Aceh Province, Indonesia, a near-elimination setting where a growing proportion of malaria is due to Plasmodium knowlesi, a case-control study was conducted to identify risk factors for symptomatic malaria, characteristics of forest-goers, and key intervention points. From April 2017 to September 2018, cases and controls were recruited and enrolled in a 1:3 ratio. Cases had confirmed malaria infection by rapid diagnostic test or microscopy detected at a health facility (HF). Gender-matched controls were recruited from passive case detection among individuals with suspected malaria who tested negative at a health facility (HF controls), and community-matched controls were recruited among those testing negative during active case detection. Multivariable logistic regression (unconditional for HF controls and conditional for community controls) was used to identify risk factors for symptomatic malaria infection. RESULTS: There were 45 cases, of which 27 were P. knowlesi, 17 were Plasmodium vivax, and one was not determined. For controls, 509 and 599 participants were recruited from health facilities and the community, respectively. Forest exposures were associated with high odds of malaria; in particular, working and sleeping in the forest (HF controls: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 21.66, 95% CI 5.09-92.26; community controls: aOR 16.78, 95% CI 2.19-128.7) and having a second residence in the forest (aOR 6.29, 95% CI 2.29-17.31 and 13.53, 95% CI 2.10-87.12). Male forest-goers were a diverse population employed in a variety of occupations including logging, farming, and mining, sleeping in settings, such as huts, tents, and barracks, and working in a wide range of group sizes. Reported use of protective measures, such as nets, hammock nets, mosquito coils, and repellents was low among forest-goers and interventions at forest residences were absent. CONCLUSIONS: Second residences in the forest and gaps in use of protective measures point to key malaria interventions to improve coverage in forest-going populations at risk for P. knowlesi and P. vivax in Aceh, Indonesia. Intensified strategies tailored to specific sub-populations will be essential to achieve elimination.

Geographical variations and district-level factors associated with COVID-19 mortality in Indonesia: a nationwide ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Ensuring health equity, especially for vulnerable populations in less developed settings with poor health system is essential for the current and future global health threats. This study examined geographical variations of COVID-19 mortality and its association with population health characteristics, health care capacity in responding pandemic, and socio-economic characteristics across 514 districts in Indonesia. METHODS: This nationwide ecological study included aggregated data of COVID-19 cases and deaths from all 514 districts in Indonesia, recorded in the National COVID-19 Task Force database, during the first two years of the epidemic, from 1 March 2020 to 27 February 2022. The dependent variable was district-level COVID-19 mortality rate per 100,000 populations. The independent variables include district-level COVID-19 incidence rate, population health, health care capacity, and socio-demographics data from government official sources. We used multivariable ordinal logistic regression to examine factors associated with higher mortality rate. RESULTS: Of total 5,539,333 reported COVID-19 cases, 148,034 (2.7%) died, and 5,391,299 (97.4%) were recovered. The district-level mortality rate ranged from 0 to 284 deaths per 100,000 populations. The top five districts with the highest mortality rate were Balikpapan (284 deaths per 100,000 populations), Semarang (263), Madiun (254), Magelang (250), and Yogyakarta (247). A higher COVID-19 incidence (coefficient 1.64, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.75), a higher proportion of ≥ 60 years old population (coefficient 0.26, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.46), a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (coefficient 0.60, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.84), a lower prevalence of obesity (coefficient -0.32, 95% CI -0.56 to -0.08), a lower number of nurses per population (coefficient -0.27, 95% CI -0.50 to -0.04), a higher number of midwives per population (coefficient 0.32, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.50), and a higher expenditure (coefficient 0.34, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.57) was associated with a higher COVID-19 mortality rate. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 mortality rate in Indonesia was highly heterogeneous and associated with higher COVID-19 incidence, different prevalence of pre-existing comorbidity, healthcare capacity in responding the pandemic, and socio-economic characteristics. This study revealed the need of controlling both COVID-19 and those known comorbidities, health capacity strengthening, and better resource allocation to ensure optimal health outcomes for vulnerable population.

The history and current epidemiology of malaria in Kalimantan, Indonesia.

Kalimantan is a part of Indonesia, which occupies the southern three-quarters of the island of Borneo, sharing a border with the Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak. Although most areas of Kalimantan have low and stable transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, there are relatively high case numbers in the province of East Kalimantan. Two aspects of malaria endemicity in Kalimantan differentiate it from the rest of Indonesia, namely recent deforestation and potential exposure to the zoonotic malaria caused by Plasmodium knowlesi that occurs in relatively large numbers in adjacent Malaysian Borneo. In the present review, the history of malaria and its current epidemiology in Kalimantan are examined, including control and eradication efforts over the past two centuries, mosquito vector prevalence, anti-malarial use and parasite resistance, and the available data from case reports of knowlesi malaria and the presence of conditions which would support transmission of this zoonotic infection.

Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout.

BACKGROUND: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. METHODS: We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. RESULTS: C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. CONCLUSIONS: Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

Sub-national disparities in accessing anti-malarial drug treatment in eastern Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Poor access to health care providers was among the contributing factors to less prompt and ineffective malaria treatment. This limitation could cause severe diseases in remote areas. This study examined the sub-national disparities and predictors in accessing anti-malarial drug treatment among adults in Eastern Indonesia. METHODS: The study analyzed a subset of the 2018 National Basic Health Survey conducted in all 34 provinces in Indonesia. We extracted socio-demographic data of 4655 adult respondents diagnosed with malaria in the past 12 months in five provinces in Eastern Indonesia. The association between socio-demographic factors and the access to anti-malarial drug treatment was assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Over 20% of respondents diagnosed with malaria within last 12 months admitted that they did not receive anti-malarial drug treatment (range 12-29.9%). The proportion of untreated cases was 12.0% in East Nusa Tenggara, 29.9% in Maluku, 23.1% in North Maluku, 12.7% in West Papua, and 15.6% in Papua. The likelihood of receiving anti-malarial drug treatment was statistically lower in Maluku (adjusted OR = 0.258; 95% CI 0.161-0.143) and North Maluku (adjusted OR = 0.473; 95% CI 0.266-0.840) than those in Eastern Nusa Tenggara (reference). Urban respondents were less likely to receive malaria treatment than rural (adjusted OR = 0.545; 95% CI 0.431-0.689). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that there were sub-national disparities in accessing anti-malarial drug treatment in Eastern Indonesia, with a high proportion of untreated malaria cases across the areas. Findings from this study could be used as baseline information to improve access to anti-malarial drug treatment and better target malaria intervention in Eastern Indonesia.

Defining malaria risks among forest workers in Aceh, Indonesia: a formative assessment.

BACKGROUND: Following a dramatic decline of malaria cases in Aceh province, geographically-based reactive case detection (RACD) was recently evaluated as a tool to improve surveillance with the goal of malaria elimination. While RACD detected few cases in households surrounding index cases, engaging in forest work was identified as a risk factor for malaria and infections from Plasmodium knowlesi-a non-human primate malaria parasite-were more common than expected. This qualitative formative assessment was conducted to improve understanding of malaria risk from forest work and identify strategies for targeted surveillance among forest workers, including adapting reactive case detection. METHODS: Between June and August, 2016, five focus groups and 18 in-depth interviews with forest workers and key informants were conducted in each of four subdistricts in Aceh Besar and Aceh Jaya districts. Themes included: types of forest activities, mobility of workers, interactions with non-human primates, malaria prevention and treatment-seeking behaviours, and willingness to participate in malaria surveys at forest work sites and using peer-referral. RESULTS: Reported forest activities included mining, logging, and agriculture in the deep forest and along the forest fringe. Forest workers, particularly miners and loggers, described often spending weeks to months at work sites in makeshift housing, rarely utilizing mosquito prevention and, upon fever, self-medicating and seeking care from traditional healers or pharmacies rather than health facilities. Non-human primates are frequently observed near work sites, and most forest work locations are within a day's journey of health clinics. Employers and workers expressed interest in undertaking malaria testing and in participating in survey recruitment by peer-referral and at work sites. CONCLUSIONS: Diverse groups of forest workers in Aceh are potentially exposed to malaria through forest work. Passive surveillance and household-based screening may under-estimate malaria burden due to extended stays in the forest and health-seeking behaviours. Adapting active surveillance to specifically target forest workers through work-site screening and/or peer-referral appears promising for addressing currently undetected infections.

On the road to universal health care in Indonesia, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: As Indonesia moves to provide health coverage for all citizens, understanding patterns of morbidity and mortality is important to allocate resources and address inequality. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 study (GBD 2016) estimates sources of early death and disability, which can inform policies to improve health care. METHODS: We used GBD 2016 results for cause-specific deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, and risk factors for 333 causes in Indonesia and in seven comparator countries. Estimates were produced by location, year, age, and sex using methods outlined in GBD 2016. Using the Socio-demographic Index, we generated expected values for each metric and compared these against observed results. FINDINGS: In Indonesia between 1990 and 2016, life expectancy increased by 8·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 7·3-8·8) to 71·7 years (71·0-72·3): the increase was 7·4 years (6·4-8·6) for males and 8·7 years (7·8-9·5) for females. Total DALYs due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes decreased by 58·6% (95% UI 55·6-61·6), from 43·8 million (95% UI 41·4-46·5) to 18·1 million (16·8-19·6), whereas total DALYs from non-communicable diseases rose. DALYs due to injuries decreased, both in crude rates and in age-standardised rates. The three leading causes of DALYs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes. Dietary risks were a leading contributor to the DALY burden, accounting for 13·6% (11·8-15·4) of DALYs in 2016. INTERPRETATION: Over the past 27 years, health across many indicators has improved in Indonesia. Improvements are partly offset by rising deaths and a growing burden of non-communicable diseases. To maintain and increase health gains, further work is needed to identify successful interventions and improve health equity. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes reduce dengue virus transmission, and city-wide releases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, are showing promising entomological results. Accurate estimates of the burden of dengue, its spatial distribution and the potential impact of Wolbachia are critical in guiding funder and government decisions on its future wider use. METHODS: Here, we combine multiple modelling methods for burden estimation to predict national case burden disaggregated by severity and map the distribution of burden across the country using three separate data sources. An ensemble of transmission models then predicts the estimated reduction in dengue transmission following a nationwide roll-out of wMel Wolbachia. RESULTS: We estimate that 7.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.8-17.7 million) symptomatic dengue cases occurred in Indonesia in 2015 and were associated with 332,865 (UI 94,175-754,203) lost disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The majority of dengue's burden was due to non-severe cases that did not seek treatment or were challenging to diagnose in outpatient settings leading to substantial underreporting. Estimated burden was highly concentrated in a small number of large cities with 90% of dengue cases occurring in 15.3% of land area. Implementing a nationwide Wolbachia population replacement programme was estimated to avert 86.2% (UI 36.2-99.9%) of cases over a long-term average. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest interventions targeted to the highest burden cities can have a disproportionate impact on dengue burden. Area-wide interventions, such as Wolbachia, that are deployed based on the area covered could protect people more efficiently than individual-based interventions, such as vaccines, in such dense environments.

Negligible Impact of Mass Screening and Treatment on Mesoendemic Malaria Transmission at West Timor in Eastern Indonesia: A Cluster-Randomized Trial.

Background: Mass screening and treatment (MST) aims to reduce malaria risk in communities by identifying and treating infected persons without regard to illness. Methods: A cluster-randomized trial evaluated malaria incidence with and without MST. Clusters were randomized to 3, 2, or no MST interventions: MST3, 6 clusters (156 households/670 individuals); MST2, 5 clusters (89 households/423 individuals); and MST0, 5 clusters (174 households/777 individuals). All clusters completed the study with 14 residents withdrawing. In a cohort of 324 schoolchildren (MST3, n = 124; MST2, n = 57; MST0, n = 143) negative by microscopy at enrollment, we evaluated the incidence density of malaria during 3 months of MST and 3 months following. The MST intervention involved community-wide expert malaria microscopic screening and standard therapy with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and primaquine for glucose-6 phosphate dehydrogenase-normal subjects. All blood examinations included polymerase chain reaction assays, which did not guide on-site treatment. Results: The risk ratios for incidence density of microscopically patent malaria in MST3 or MST2 relative to that in MST0 clusters were 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], .53-1.91) and 1.22 (95% CI, .42-3.55), respectively. Similar results were obtained with molecular analysis and species-specific (P. falciparum and P. vivax) infections. Microscopically subpatent, untreated infections accounted for 72% of those infected. Conclusions: Two or 3 rounds of MST within 3 months did not impact the force of anopheline mosquito-borne infection in these communities. The high rate of untreated microscopically subpatent infections likely explains the observed poor impact. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT01878357.

Randomized trial of primaquine hypnozoitocidal efficacy when administered with artemisinin-combined blood schizontocides for radical cure of Plasmodium vivax in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Safety and efficacy of primaquine against repeated attacks of Plasmodium vivax depends upon co-administered blood schizontocidal therapy in radical cure. We assessed primaquine (PQ) as hypnozoitocide when administered with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (Eurartesim®, DHA-PP) or artesunate-pyronaridine (Pyramax®, AS-PYR) to affirm its good tolerability and efficacy. A third arm, artesunate followed by primaquine, was not intended as therapy for practice, but addressed a hypothesis concerning primaquine efficacy without co-administration of blood schizontocide. METHODS: During March to July 2013, an open-label, randomized trial enrolled Indonesian soldiers with vivax malaria at Sragen, Central Java, after six months duty in malarious Papua, Indonesia. No malaria transmission occurred at the study site and P. vivax recurrences in the 12 months following therapy were classified as relapses. A historic relapse control derived from a cohort of soldiers who served in the same area of Papua was applied to estimate risk of relapse among randomized treatment groups. Those were: 1) AS followed 2d later by PQ (0.5 mg/kg daily for 14d); 2) co-formulated AS-PYR concurrent with the same regimen of PQ; or 3) co-formulated DHA-PP concurrent with the same regimen of PQ. RESULTS: Among 532 soldiers, 219 had vivax malaria during the four months following repatriation to Java; 180 of these were otherwise healthy and G6PD-normal and enrolled in the trial. Subjects in all treatment groups tolerated the therapies well without untoward events and cleared parasitemia within three days. First relapse appeared at day 39 post-enrollment, and the last at day 270. Therapeutic efficacy of PQ against relapse by incidence density analysis was 92 % (95 %CI = 83-97 %), 94 %(95 %CI = 86-97 %), and 95 %(95 %CI = 88-98 %) when combined with AS, AS-PYR, or DHA-PP, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This trial offers evidence of good tolerability and efficacy of PQ against P. vivax relapse when administered concurrently with DHA-PP or AS-PYR. These offer alternative partner drugs for radical cure with primaquine. The AS arm demonstrated efficacy with a total dose of 7 mg/kg PQ without concurrently administered blood schizontocide, another option when primaquine therapy is removed in time from the treatment of the acute malaria or applied presumptively without an attack. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN82366390, assigned 20 March 2013.