Functional trait trade-offs define plant population stability across different biomes.

Ecological theory posits that temporal stability patterns in plant populations are associated with differences in species' ecological strategies. However, empirical evidence is lacking about which traits, or trade-offs, underlie species stability, especially across different biomes. We compiled a worldwide collection of long-term permanent vegetation records (greater than 7000 plots from 78 datasets) from a large range of habitats which we combined with existing trait databases. We tested whether the observed inter-annual variability in species abundance (coefficient of variation) was related to multiple individual traits. We found that populations with greater leaf dry matter content and seed mass were more stable over time. Despite the variability explained by these traits being low, their effect was consistent across different datasets. Other traits played a significant, albeit weaker, role in species stability, and the inclusion of multi-variate axes or phylogeny did not substantially modify nor improve predictions. These results provide empirical evidence and highlight the relevance of specific ecological trade-offs, i.e. in different resource-use and dispersal strategies, for plant populations stability across multiple biomes. Further research is, however, necessary to integrate and evaluate the role of other specific traits, often not available in databases, and intraspecific trait variability in modulating species stability.

Synchrony matters more than species richness in plant community stability at a global scale.

The stability of ecological communities is critical for the stable provisioning of ecosystem services, such as food and forage production, carbon sequestration, and soil fertility. Greater biodiversity is expected to enhance stability across years by decreasing synchrony among species, but the drivers of stability in nature remain poorly resolved. Our analysis of time series from 79 datasets across the world showed that stability was associated more strongly with the degree of synchrony among dominant species than with species richness. The relatively weak influence of species richness is consistent with theory predicting that the effect of richness on stability weakens when synchrony is higher than expected under random fluctuations, which was the case in most communities. Land management, nutrient addition, and climate change treatments had relatively weak and varying effects on stability, modifying how species richness, synchrony, and stability interact. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of biotic drivers on ecosystem stability, with the potential for environmental drivers to alter the intricate relationship among richness, synchrony, and stability.

The impact of climate warming on species diversity across scales: Lessons from experimental meta-ecosystems.

Aim: The aim was to evaluate the effects of climate warming on biodiversity across spatial scales (i.e., α-, ß- and γ-diversity) and the effects of patch openness and experimental context on diversity responses. Location: Global. Time period: 1995-2017. Major taxa studied: Fungi, invertebrates, phytoplankton, plants, seaweed, soil microbes and zooplankton. Methods: We compiled data from warming experiments and conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of warming on different components of diversity (such as species richness and equivalent numbers) at different spatial scales (α-, ß- and γ-diversity, partitioning ß-diversity into species turnover and nestedness components). We also investigated how these effects were modulated by system openness, defined as the possibility of replicates being colonized by new species, and experimental context (duration, mean temperature change and ecosystem type). Results: Experimental warming did not affect local species richness (α-diversity) but decreased effective numbers of species by affecting species dominance. Warming increased species spatial turnover (ß-diversity), although no significant changes were detected at the regional scale (γ-diversity). Site openness and experimental context did not significantly affect our results, despite significant heterogeneity in the effect sizes of α- and ß-diversity. Main conclusions: Our meta-analysis shows that the effects of warming on biodiversity are scale dependent. The local and regional inventory diversity remain unaltered, whereas species composition across temperature gradients and the patterns of species dominance change with temperature, creating novel communities that might be harder to predict.

Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?

Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model-data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter-model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water-limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily-monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal-annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter-model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models.

Fast attrition of springtail communities by experimental drought and richness-decomposition relationships across Europe.

Soil fauna play a fundamental role on key ecosystem functions like organic matter decomposition, although how local assemblages are responding to climate change and whether these changes may have consequences to ecosystem functioning is less clear. Previous studies have revealed that a continued environmental stress may result in poorer communities by filtering out the most sensitive species. However, these experiments have rarely been applied to climate change factors combining multiyear and multisite standardized field treatments across climatically contrasting regions, which has limited drawing general conclusions. Moreover, other facets of biodiversity, such as functional and phylogenetic diversity, potentially more closely linked to ecosystem functioning, have been largely neglected. Here, we report that the abundance, species richness, phylogenetic diversity, and functional richness of springtails (Subclass Collembola), a major group of fungivores and detritivores, decreased within 4 years of experimental drought across six European shrublands. The loss of phylogenetic and functional richness was higher than expected by the loss of species richness, leading to communities of phylogenetically similar species sharing evolutionary conserved traits. Additionally, despite the great climatic differences among study sites, we found that taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional richness of springtail communities alone were able to explain up to 30% of the variation in annual decomposition rates. Altogether, our results suggest that the forecasted reductions in precipitation associated with climate change may erode springtail communities and likely other drought-sensitive soil invertebrates, thereby retarding litter decomposition and nutrient cycling in ecosystems.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming.

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Species selection under long-term experimental warming and drought explained by climatic distributions.

Global warming and reduced precipitation may trigger large-scale species losses and vegetation shifts in ecosystems around the world. However, currently lacking are practical ways to quantify the sensitivity of species and community composition to these often-confounded climatic forces. Here we conducted long-term (16 yr) nocturnal-warming (+0.6°C) and reduced precipitation (-20% soil moisture) experiments in a Mediterranean shrubland. Climatic niche groups (CNGs) - species ranked or classified by similar temperature or precipitation distributions - informatively described community responses under experimental manipulations. Under warming, CNGs revealed that only those species distributed in cooler regions decreased. Correspondingly, under reduced precipitation, a U-shaped treatment effect observed in the total community was the result of an abrupt decrease in wet-distributed species, followed by a delayed increase in dry-distributed species. Notably, while partially correlated, CNG explanations of community response were stronger for their respective climate parameter, suggesting some species possess specific adaptations to either warming or drought that may lead to independent selection to the two climatic variables. Our findings indicate that when climatic distributions are combined with experiments, the resulting incorporation of local plant evolutionary strategies and their changing dynamics over time leads to predictable and informative shifts in community structure under independent climate change scenarios.

Shift in community structure in an early-successional Mediterranean shrubland driven by long-term experimental warming and drought and natural extreme droughts.

Global warming and recurring drought are expected to accelerate water limitation for plant communities in semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems and produce directional shifts in structure and composition that are not easily detected, and supporting evidence is scarce. We conducted a long-term (17 years) nocturnal-warming (+0.6°C) and drought (-40% rainfall) experiments in an early-successional Mediterranean shrubland to study the changes in community structure and composition, contrasting functional groups and dominant species, and the superimposed effects of natural extreme drought. Species richness decreased in both the warming and drought treatments. Responses to the moderate warming were associated with decreases in herb abundance, and responses to the drought were associated with decreases in both herb and shrub abundances. The drought also significantly decreased community diversity and evenness. Changes in abundance differed between herbs (decreases) and shrubs (increases or no changes). Both warming and drought, especially drought, increased the relative species richness and abundance of shrubs, favoring the establishment of shrubs. Both warming and drought produced significant shifts in plant community composition. Experimental warming shifted the community composition from Erica multiflora toward Rosmarinus officinalis, and drought consistently shifted the composition toward Globularia alypum. The responses in biodiversity (e.g., community biodiversity, changes of functional groups and compositional shifts) were also strongly correlated with atmospheric drought (SPEI) in winter-spring and/or summer, indicating sensitivity to water limitation in this early-successional Mediterranean ecosystem, especially to natural extreme droughts. Our results suggest that the shifts in species assembles and community diversity and composition are accelerated by the long-term nocturnal-warming and drought, combined with natural severe droughts, and that the magnitude of the impacts of climate change is also correlated with the successional status of ecosystem. The results thus highlight the necessity for assessing the impacts on ecosystemic functioning and services and developing effective measures for conserving biodiversity.

Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship.

Well-defined productivity-precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity-precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation-reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effects of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation-manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity-precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. The majority of experiments (72%) showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation-reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid.

Alteration of the phenology of leaf senescence and fall in winter deciduous species by climate change: effects on nutrient proficiency.

Leaf senescence in winter deciduous species signals the transition from the active to the dormant stage. The purpose of leaf senescence is the recovery of nutrients before the leaves fall. Photoperiod and temperature are the main cues controlling leaf senescence in winter deciduous species, with water stress imposing an additional influence. Photoperiod exerts a strict control on leaf senescence at latitudes where winters are severe and temperature gains importance in the regulation as winters become less severe. On average, climatic warming will delay and drought will advance leaf senescence, but at varying degrees depending on the species. Warming and drought thus have opposite effects on the phenology of leaf senescence, and the impact of climate change will therefore depend on the relative importance of each factor in specific regions. Warming is not expected to have a strong impact on nutrient proficiency although a slower speed of leaf senescence induced by warming could facilitate a more efficient nutrient resorption. Nutrient resorption is less efficient when the leaves senesce prematurely as a consequence of water stress. The overall effects of climate change on nutrient resorption will depend on the contrasting effects of warming and drought. Changes in nutrient resorption and proficiency will impact production in the following year, at least in early spring, because the construction of new foliage relies almost exclusively on nutrients resorbed from foliage during the preceding leaf fall. Changes in the phenology of leaf senescence will thus impact carbon uptake, but also ecosystem nutrient cycling, especially if the changes are consequence of water stress.

Strong relationship between elemental stoichiometry and metabolome in plants.

Shifts in the elemental stoichiometry of organisms in response to their ontogeny and to changing environmental conditions should be related to metabolomic changes because elements operate mostly as parts of molecular compounds. Here we show this relationship in leaves of Erica multiflora throughout their seasonal development and in response to moderate experimental field conditions of drought and warming. The N/P ratio in leaves decreased in the metabolically active growing seasons, coinciding with an increase in the content of primary metabolites. These results support the growth-rate hypothesis that states that rapidly growing organisms present low N/P ratios because of the increase in allocation of P to RNA. The foliar N/K and P/K ratios were lower in summer and in the drought treatment, in accordance with the role of K in osmotic protection, and coincided with the increase of compounds related to the avoidance of water stress. These results provide strong evidence of the relationship between the changes in foliar C/N/P/K stoichiometry and the changes in the leaf's metabolome during plant growth and environmental stress. Thus these results represent a step in understanding the relationships between stoichiometry and an organism's lifestyle.

Variability and limits of nitrogen and phosphorus resorption during foliar senescence.

Foliar nutrient resorption (NuR) plays a key role in ecosystem functioning and plant nutrient economy. Most of this recycling occurs during the senescence of leaves and is actively addressed by cells. Here, we discuss the importance of cell biochemistry, physiology, and subcellular anatomy to condition the outcome of NuR at the cellular level and to explain the existence of limits to NuR. Nutrients are transferred from the leaf in simple metabolites that can be loaded into the phloem. Proteolysis is the main mechanism for mobilization of N, whereas P mobilization requires the involvement of different catabolic pathways, making the dynamics of P in leaves more variable than those of N before, during, and after foliar senescence. The biochemistry and fate of organelles during senescence impose constraints that limit NuR. The efficiency of NuR decreases, especially in evergreen species, as soil fertility increases, which is attributed to the relative costs of nutrient acquisition from soil decreasing with increasing soil nutrient availability, while the energetic costs of NuR from senescing leaves remain constant. NuR is genetically determined, with substantial interspecific variability, and is environmentally regulated in space and time, with nutrient availability being a key driver of intraspecific variability in NuR.

Field experiments underestimate aboveground biomass response to drought.

Researchers use both experiments and observations to study the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, but results from these contrasting approaches have not been systematically compared for droughts. Using a meta-analysis and accounting for potential confounding factors, we demonstrate that aboveground biomass responded only about half as much to experimentally imposed drought events as to natural droughts. Our findings indicate that experimental results may underestimate climate change impacts and highlight the need to integrate results across approaches.

Large delay in flowering in continental versus coastal populations of a Mediterranean shrub, Globularia alypum.

Globularia alypum is a perennial shrub typical of western Mediterranean thermophilous shrublands. Nine populations of G. alypum located in different localities of Catalonia (NE Spain) were surveyed for flowering phenology. Flower-head buds were present in all the populations in July. Flowering time in the area spans from the late summer-early autumn to the next spring depending on the populations; there are two groups of populations, early and late flowering. Early populations grow mostly in coastal localities and flower from September to November, whereas late flowering populations grow in inland localities and flower from February to April. The flowering order of the populations correlated with minimum temperature of most months except the warmest ones, and correlated with maximum and mean temperatures of the coldest months. Correlations were similar when tested with annual climate. The flowering order also correlated with the thermic interval for most months except the coldest and with the index of continentality. Early populations alone did not present correlations with any variable, whereas late populations alone correlated similarly to all populations together. Flowering order did not correlate with precipitation. Late populations are proposed to be regulated by temperature according to our results whereas early populations could be regulated by timing in precipitation after summer drought, according to published results. We discuss the possibilities of the two flowering patterns, early and late, being due to phenotypic plasticity or to genetic adaptation to local climates. We also discuss the consequences at the plant and ecosystem level of climate warming causing shifts from late to early patterns, a possibility that is likely in the warmest of the late populations if flowering is modulated phenotypically.

Precipitation-dependent flowering of Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora in Mediterranean shrubland under experimental drought and warming, and its inter-annual variability.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Relationships between autumn flowering, precipitation and temperature of plant species of Mediterranean coastal shrublands have been described, but not analysed experimentally. These relationships were analysed for two species of co-occurring, dominant, autumn-flowering shrubs, Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora, over 4 years and in experimentally generated drought and warming conditions. The aim was to improve predictions about the responses and adaptations of flowering of Mediterranean vegetation to climate change. METHODS: Beginning of anthesis and date of maximum flowering intensity ('peak date') were monitored over 4 years (2001-2004) on a garrigue land type in the noth-east of the Iberian Peninsula. Two experimental treatments were applied, increased temperature (+0.73 degrees C) and reduced soil moisture (-17%) relative to untreated plots. KEY RESULTS: Flowering of Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora differed greatly between years depending on the precipitation of the previous months and the date of the last substantial rainfall (>10 mm). Globularia alypum flowered once or twice (unimodal or bimodal) as the result of differences in the distribution and magnitude of precipitation in late-spring and summer (when floral buds develop). The drought treatment delayed and decreased flowering of Globularia alypum in 2001 and delayed flowering in 2002. Warming extended the period between the beginning of flowering and the end of the second peak for autumn flowering in 2001 and also increased peak intensity in 2002. Flowering of Erica multiflora was unaffected by either treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Autumn flowering of Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora is more dependent on water availability than on temperature. Considerable inter-annual plasticity in the beginning of anthesis and peak date and on unimodal or bimodal flowering constitutes a 'safe strategy' for both species in relation to varying precipitation and temperature. However, severe changes in precipitation in spring and summer may severely affect flowering of Globularia alypum but not Erica multiflora, thus affecting development/structure of the ecosystem if such conditions persist.

Valuation of climate-change effects on Mediterranean shrublands.

In general, the socioeconomic analysis of natural systems does not enter into the realms of natural science. This paper, however, estimates the human-welfare effects of possible physicochemical and biological impacts of climate change on Mediterranean shrublands over the coming 50 years. The contingent choice method was applied to elicit the trade-offs in perceived values for three climate-sensitive attributes of shrubland (plant cover, fire risk, and soil erosion) and for the costs of programs designed to mitigate changes. Soil erosion was found to be the attribute of shrubland that most concerned the population, followed by fire risk and then plant cover. An increase of 1% in the shrubland area affected by erosion was estimated to cost each person on average 2.9 euros per year in terms of lost welfare, a figure that is equivalent in terms of perceptions of social welfare to an increase of 0.24% in the shrub area burned annually and a decrease of 3.19% in the area of plant cover. These trade-off values may help ecologists, policy makers, and land managers to take social preferences into account.

Shrubland primary production and soil respiration diverge along European climate gradient.

Above- and belowground carbon (C) stores of terrestrial ecosystems are vulnerable to environmental change. Ecosystem C balances in response to environmental changes have been quantified at individual sites, but the magnitudes and directions of these responses along environmental gradients remain uncertain. Here we show the responses of ecosystem C to 8-12 years of experimental drought and night-time warming across an aridity gradient spanning seven European shrublands using indices of C assimilation (aboveground net primary production: aNPP) and soil C efflux (soil respiration: Rs). The changes of aNPP and Rs in response to drought indicated that wet systems had an overall risk of increased loss of C but drier systems did not. Warming had no consistent effect on aNPP across the climate gradient, but suppressed Rs more at the drier sites. Our findings suggest that above- and belowground C fluxes can decouple, and provide no evidence of acclimation to environmental change at a decadal timescale. aNPP and Rs especially differed in their sensitivity to drought and warming, with belowground processes being more sensitive to environmental change.

Physiological adjustments of a Mediterranean shrub to long-term experimental warming and drought treatments.

Warmer temperatures and extended drought in the Mediterranean Basin are becoming increasingly important in determining plant physiological processes and affecting the regional carbon budget. The responses of plant physiological variables such as shoot water potential (Ψ), carbon-assimilation rates (A), stomatal conductance (gs) and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) to these climatic regimes, however, are not well understood. We conducted long-term (16 years) field experiments with mild nocturnal warming (+0.6°C) and drought (-20% soil moisture) in a Mediterranean early-successional shrubland. Warming treatment moderately influenced Ψ, A and gs throughout the sampling periods, whereas drought treatment strongly influenced these variables, especially during the summer. The combination of a natural drought in summer 2003 and the treatments significantly decreased A and iWUE. Foliar δ13C increased in the treatments relative to control, but not significantly. The values of Ψ, A and gs were correlated negatively with vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) and positively with soil moisture and tended to be more dependent on the availability of soil water. The plant, however, also improved the acclimation to drier and hotter conditions by physiological adjustments (gs and iWUE). Understanding these physiological processes in Mediterranean shrubs is crucial for assessing further climate change impacts on ecosystemic functions and services.