Sociodemographic Variables Can Guide Prioritized Testing Strategies for Epidemic Control in Resource-Limited Contexts.

BACKGROUND: Targeted surveillance allows public health authorities to implement testing and isolation strategies when diagnostic resources are limited, and can be implemented via the consideration of social network topologies. However, it remains unclear how to implement such surveillance and control when network data are unavailable. METHODS: We evaluated the ability of sociodemographic proxies of degree centrality to guide prioritized testing of infected individuals compared to known degree centrality. Proxies were estimated via readily available sociodemographic variables (age, gender, marital status, educational attainment, household size). We simulated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics via a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered individual-based model on 2 contact networks from rural Madagascar to test applicability of these findings to low-resource contexts. RESULTS: Targeted testing using sociodemographic proxies performed similarly to targeted testing using known degree centralities. At low testing capacity, using proxies reduced infection burden by 22%-33% while using 20% fewer tests, compared to random testing. By comparison, using known degree centrality reduced the infection burden by 31%-44% while using 26%-29% fewer tests. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that incorporating social network information into epidemic control strategies is an effective countermeasure to low testing capacity and can be implemented via sociodemographic proxies when social network data are unavailable.

The Burden of Cardiac Implantable Electronic Device Checks in the Peri-MRI Setting: The CHECK-MRI Study.

BACKGROUND: Most modern cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) systems are now compatible with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. The requirement for both pre- and post-MRI CIED checks imposes significant workload to the cardiac electrophysiology service. Here, we sought to determine the burden of CIED checks associated with MRI scans. METHODS: We identified all CIED checks performed peri-MRI scans at our institution over a 3-year period between 1 July 2017 to 30 June 2020, comprising three separate financial years (FY). Device check reports, MRI scan reports and clinical summaries were collated. The workload burden was determined by assessing the occasions and duration of service. Analysis was performed to determine cost burden/projections for this service and identify factors contributing to the workload. RESULTS: A total of 739 CIED checks were performed in the peri-MRI scan setting (370 pre- and 369 post-MRI scan), including 5% (n=39) that were performed outside of routine hours (weekday <8 am or >5 pm, and weekends). MRIs were performed for 295 patients (75±13 years old, 64% male) with a CIED (88% permanent pacemaker, and 12% high voltage device), including 49 who had more than one MRI scan. The proportion of total MRI scans for patients with a CIED in-situ increased each FY (from 0.5% of all MRIs in FY1, to 0.9% in FY2, to 1.0% in FY3). The weekly workload increased (R2=0.2, p<0.001), but with week-to-week variability due to ad hoc scheduling (209 days with only one MRI vs 78 days with ≥2 MRIs for CIED patients). The projected annual cost of this service will increase to AUD$161,695 in 10 years for an estimated annual 546 MRI scans for CIED patients. CONCLUSIONS: There is an increasing workload burden and expense associated with CIED checks in the peri-MRI setting. Appropriate budgeting, staff allocation and standardisation of automated CIED pre-programming features among manufacturers are urgently needed.

Effects of Multisession Prefrontal Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation on Long-term Memory and Working Memory in Older Adults.

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a noninvasive form of electrical brain stimulation popularly used to augment the effects of working memory (WM) training. Although success has been mixed, some studies report enhancements in WM performance persisting days, weeks, or even months that are actually more reminiscent of consolidation effects typically observed in the long-term memory (LTM) domain, rather than WM improvements per se. Although tDCS has been often reported to enhance both WM and LTM, these effects have never been directly compared within the same study. However, given their considerable neural and behavioral overlap, this is a timely comparison to make. This study reports results from a multisession intervention in older adults comparing active and sham tDCS over the left dorsolateral pFC during training on both an n-back WM task and a word learning LTM task. We found strong and robust effects on LTM, but mixed effects on WM that only emerged for those with lower baseline ability. Importantly, mediation analyses showed an indirect effect of tDCS on WM that was mediated by improvements in consolidation. We conclude that tDCS over the left dorsolateral pFC can be used as an effective intervention to foster long-term learning and memory consolidation in aging, which can manifest in performance improvements across multiple memory domains.

Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination efforts and dose allocation within Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: While mass COVID-19 vaccination programs are underway in high-income countries, limited availability of doses has resulted in few vaccines administered in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) is a WHO-led initiative to promote vaccine access equity to LMICs and is providing many of the doses available in these settings. However, initial doses are limited and countries, such as Madagascar, need to develop prioritization schemes to maximize the benefits of vaccination with very limited supplies. There is some consensus that dose deployment should initially target health care workers, and those who are more vulnerable including older individuals. However, questions of geographic deployment remain, in particular associated with limits around vaccine access and delivery capacity in underserved communities, for example in rural areas that may also include substantial proportions of the population. METHODS: To address these questions, we developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and simulated various vaccination allocation strategies for Madagascar. Simulated strategies were based on a number of possible geographical prioritization schemes, testing sensitivity to initial susceptibility in the population, and evaluating the potential of tests for previous infection. RESULTS: Using cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 as the main outcome of interest, our results indicate that distributing the number of vaccine doses according to the number of elderly living in the region or according to the population size results in a greater reduction of mortality compared to distributing doses based on the reported number of cases and deaths. The benefits of vaccination strategies are diminished if the burden (and thus accumulated immunity) has been greatest in the most populous regions, but the overall strategy ranking remains comparable. If rapid tests for prior immunity may be swiftly and effectively delivered, there is potential for considerable gain in mortality averted, but considering delivery limitations modulates this. CONCLUSION: At a subnational scale, our results support the strategy adopted by the COVAX initiative at a global scale.

Socio-demographic, not environmental, risk factors explain fine-scale spatial patterns of diarrhoeal disease in Ifanadiana, rural Madagascar.

Precision health mapping is a technique that uses spatial relationships between socio-ecological variables and disease to map the spatial distribution of disease, particularly for diseases with strong environmental signatures, such as diarrhoeal disease (DD). While some studies use GPS-tagged location data, other precision health mapping efforts rely heavily on data collected at coarse-spatial scales and may not produce operationally relevant predictions at fine enough spatio-temporal scales to inform local health programmes. We use two fine-scale health datasets collected in a rural district of Madagascar to identify socio-ecological covariates associated with childhood DD. We constructed generalized linear mixed models including socio-demographic, climatic and landcover variables and estimated variable importance via multi-model inference. We find that socio-demographic variables, and not environmental variables, are strong predictors of the spatial distribution of disease risk at both individual and commune-level (cluster of villages) spatial scales. Climatic variables predicted strong seasonality in DD, with the highest incidence in colder, drier months, but did not explain spatial patterns. Interestingly, the occurrence of a national holiday was highly predictive of increased DD incidence, highlighting the need for including cultural factors in modelling efforts. Our findings suggest that precision health mapping efforts that do not include socio-demographic covariates may have reduced explanatory power at the local scale. More research is needed to better define the set of conditions under which the application of precision health mapping can be operationally useful to local public health professionals.

Assessing temperature-dependent competition between two invasive mosquito species.

Invasive mosquitoes are expanding their ranges into new geographic areas and interacting with resident mosquito species. Understanding how novel interactions can affect mosquito population dynamics is necessary to predict transmission risk at invasion fronts. Mosquito life-history traits are extremely sensitive to temperature, and this can lead to temperature-dependent competition between competing invasive mosquito species. We explored temperature-dependent competition between Aedes aegypti and Anopheles stephensi, two invasive mosquito species whose distributions overlap in India, the Middle East, and North Africa, where An. stephensi is currently expanding into the endemic range of Ae. aegypti. We followed mosquito cohorts raised at different intraspecific and interspecific densities across five temperatures (16-32°C) to measure traits relevant for population growth and to estimate species' per capita growth rates. We then used these growth rates to derive each species' competitive ability at each temperature. We find strong evidence for asymmetric competition at all temperatures, with Ae. aegypti emerging as the dominant competitor. This was primarily because of differences in larval survival and development times across all temperatures that resulted in a higher estimated intrinsic growth rate and competitive tolerance estimate for Ae. aegypti compared to An. stephensi. The spread of An. stephensi into the African continent could lead to urban transmission of malaria, an otherwise rural disease, increasing the human population at risk and complicating malaria elimination efforts. Competition has resulted in habitat segregation of other invasive mosquito species, and our results suggest that it may play a role in determining the distribution of An. stephensi across its invasive range.

Evaluating automated titre score as an alternative to continuous flow analysis for the prediction of passive anti-D in pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential of the automated titre score (TS) as an alternative method to continuous flow analysis (CFA) for the prediction of the nature of anti-D in pregnancy. BACKGROUND: The 2016 revised British Society for Haematology (BSH) antenatal guidelines recommended a measurement of anti-D concentration by CFA to ensure the detection of potential immune anti-D. Due to high referral costs and resource pressures, uptake has been challenging for hospital laboratories. Serious Hazards of transfusion (SHOT) data have previously shown that this has contributed to missed antenatal follow ups for women with immune anti-D and neonates affected by haemolytic disease of the fetus/newborn. METHODS/MATERIALS: In this multicentre comparative study, samples referred for CFA quantification were also tested by an ORTHO VISION automated anti-D indirect antiglobulin test (IAT) serial dilution and then converted to TS. CFA results and history of anti-D prophylaxis were used to categorise samples as passive or immune, with the aim of determining a potential TS cut-off for CFA referral of at risk patients. RESULTS: Five UK National Health Service (NHS) trusts generated a total of 196 anti-D TS results, of which 128 were classified as passive and 68 as immune. Diagnostic testing of CFA and TS values indicated a TS cut-off of 35 to assist in distinguishing the nature of anti-D. Using this cut-off, 175 (89%) results were correctly assigned into the passive or immune range, giving a specificity of 92.19% and a negative predictive value of 91.47%. CONCLUSION: TS in conjunction with clinical and anti-D prophylaxis history can be used as a viable and cost-effective alternative to CFA in a hospital laboratory setting.

Prognostic tools to assess candidacy for and efficacy of antibody-removal therapy.

Currently, the ability to predict or monitor the efficacy of HLA antibody-removal therapies is deficient. We previously reported that titration studies are a consistent and accurate means of assessing antibody strength. To test whether titration studies can also predict which patients are better candidates for desensitization, we studied 38 patients from 3 centers (29 receiving plasmapheresis/low-dose intravenous immunoglobulin [IVIg]; 9 patients receiving high-dose IVIg). For patients undergoing plasmapheresis/low-dose IVIg, antibody titer reduction correlated with number of treatment cycles for both class I and II antibodies but only up to approximately 4 cycles. Reduction in titer slowed with additional cycles, suggesting a limit to the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, initial titer (predesensitization) can guide the selection of candidates for successful antibody-removal treatment. In our experience, patients with antibodies at an initial titer >1:512 could not be reduced to the goal of a negative lymphocyte crossmatch, corresponding to a 1:16 titer, despite a significant increase in the number of treatment cycles. Change in mean fluorescence intensity (MFI) value did not correlate with success of treatment if initial MFI values were >10 000, likely due to single antigen bead saturation. Overall, we present a potential prognostic tool to predict candidacy and a monitoring tool to assess efficacy of desensitization treatment.

Trans-ethnic meta-analysis of white blood cell phenotypes.

White blood cell (WBC) count is a common clinical measure used as a predictor of certain aspects of human health, including immunity and infection status. WBC count is also a complex trait that varies among individuals and ancestry groups. Differences in linkage disequilibrium structure and heterogeneity in allelic effects are expected to play a role in the associations observed between populations. Prior genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses have identified genomic loci associated with WBC and its subtypes, but much of the heritability of these phenotypes remains unexplained. Using GWAS summary statistics for over 50 000 individuals from three diverse populations (Japanese, African-American and European ancestry), a Bayesian model methodology was employed to account for heterogeneity between ancestry groups. This approach was used to perform a trans-ethnic meta-analysis of total WBC, neutrophil and monocyte counts. Ten previously known associations were replicated and six new loci were identified, including several regions harboring genes related to inflammation and immune cell function. Ninety-five percent credible interval regions were calculated to narrow the association signals and fine-map the putatively causal variants within loci. Finally, a conditional analysis was performed on the most significant SNPs identified by the trans-ethnic meta-analysis (MA), and nine secondary signals within loci previously associated with WBC or its subtypes were identified. This work illustrates the potential of trans-ethnic analysis and ascribes a critical role to multi-ethnic cohorts and consortia in exploring complex phenotypes with respect to variants that lie outside the European-biased GWAS pool.

Association between Race, Household Income and Grip Strength in Middle- and Older-Aged Adults.

BACKGROUND: Poor grip strength is an indicator of frailty and a precursor to functional limitations. Although poor grip strength is more prevalent in older disabled African American women, little is known about the association between race and poverty-related disparities and grip strength in middle-aged men and women. METHODS: We examined the cross-sectional relationship between race, socioeconomic status as assessed by household income, and hand grip strength in men and women in the Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity across the Life Span study. General linear models examined grip strength (maximum of two trials on both sides) by race and household income adjusted for age, weight, height, hand pain, education, insurance status, family income, and two or more chronic conditions. RESULTS: Of 2,091 adults, 422(45.4%) were male, 509(54.8%) were African American, and 320 (34.5%) were living in households with incomes below 125% of the federal poverty level (low SES). In adjusted models, African American women had greater grip strength than White women independent of SES (low income household: 29.3 vs 26.9 kg and high income household: 30.5 vs. 28.3kg; P<.05 for both); whereas in men, only African Americans in the high income household group had better grip strength than Whites (46.3 vs. 43.2; P<.05). CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between grip strength, race and SES as assessed by household income varied in this cohort. Efforts to develop grip strength norms and cut points that indicate frailty and sarcopenia may need to be race- and income-specific.

Genome-wide association study of age at menarche in African-American women.

African-American (AA) women have earlier menarche on average than women of European ancestry (EA), and earlier menarche is a risk factor for obesity and type 2 diabetes among other chronic diseases. Identification of common genetic variants associated with age at menarche has a potential value in pointing to the genetic pathways underlying chronic disease risk, yet comprehensive genome-wide studies of age at menarche are lacking for AA women. In this study, we tested the genome-wide association of self-reported age at menarche with common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a total of 18 089 AA women in 15 studies using an additive genetic linear regression model, adjusting for year of birth and population stratification, followed by inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis (Stage 1). Top meta-analysis results were then tested in an independent sample of 2850 women (Stage 2). First, while no SNP passed the pre-specified P < 5 × 10(-8) threshold for significance in Stage 1, suggestive associations were found for variants near FLRT2 and PIK3R1, and conditional analysis identified two independent SNPs (rs339978 and rs980000) in or near RORA, strengthening the support for this suggestive locus identified in EA women. Secondly, an investigation of SNPs in 42 previously identified menarche loci in EA women demonstrated that 25 (60%) of them contained variants significantly associated with menarche in AA women. The findings provide the first evidence of cross-ethnic generalization of menarche loci identified to date, and suggest a number of novel biological links to menarche timing in AA women.

The effects of F-500 Encapsulator Agent on canine alerts and laboratory analysis using passive headspace concentration and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.

F-500 Encapsulator Agent (EA) is a fire suppression agent that is an alternative to traditional firefighting foams. It is marketed as having the capability to act on all four parts of the fire tetrahedron as well as being environmentally friendly and non-toxic. An internal survey of the use of F-500 EA by fire departments encountered by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) ignitable liquid detection canine (ILDC) handlers in 2022 showed that this product is not yet in widespread use across the country, but where it has been implemented, it is frequently utilized on a variety of types of fires. Additional agencies are researching the product to determine if it should be adopted. As this product appears to be growing in popularity, it is important to understand whether the use of the product would affect a canine's ability to detect ignitable liquids or a forensic laboratory's ability to identify the presence of an ignitable liquid. Burned wood and burned carpet, two commonly encountered substrates, were spiked with gasoline or a heavy petroleum distillate (HPD) and F-500 EA was applied. At various time intervals, ILDC teams surveyed the samples and laboratory analysis was conducted. Results showed that the presence of F-500 EA can negatively affect canine alerts and the laboratory's ability to identify ignitable liquids.

Young adults with kidney failure lived experiences of kidney replacement therapy decision-making.

BACKGROUND: Young adults living with kidney failure make decisions to select a kidney replacement therapy choice in partnership with healthcare professionals. However, little is known about how they experience kidney replacement therapy treatment decision-making and the impact this has on their well-being. OBJECTIVES: To explore young adults living with kidney failure experiences of treatment decision-making. The treatment decision-making investigated is about the choice of dialysis and/or kidney transplant options. DESIGN: A qualitative interpretive hermeneutic phenomenology study. PARTICIPANTS: Purposeful sampling was used to recruit young adults with kidney failure from social media, electronic media such as local kidney group websites and word of mouth. Semistructured interviews were conducted with (n = 18) participants aged 18-30 years. APPROACH: Inductive analysis of the data were performed using Braun and Clarke's thematic analysis framework. FINDINGS: The five themes generated were (1) awareness and anticipation of future kidney replacement therapy decision; (2) health information and education; (3) engaging in decision-making, support and choices; (4) implementation of kidney replacement therapy and transitioning into the new normal life and (5) the impact of decision-making and choice on well-being. CONCLUSIONS: Decision-making significantly affected young adults' psychosocial and mental well-being. Young adults had unmet informational and decisional needs and struggled to cope due to lack of support. A four-talk model, with an implement talk phase added to the existing three-talk (team talk, option talk, decision talk) shared decision-making model, would promote a focus on the implementation of choice and support the transitioning from previous life to long-term dependence on treatment.

Heterogeneity in elimination efforts could increase the risk of resurgence of lymphatic filariasis in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Progress in lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination is spatially heterogeneous in many endemic countries, which may lead to resurgence in areas that have achieved elimination. Understanding the drivers and consequences of such heterogeneity could help inform strategies to reach global LF elimination goals by 2030. This study assesses whether differences in age-specific compliance with mass drug administration (MDA) could explain LF prevalence patterns in southeastern Madagascar and explores how spatial heterogeneity in prevalence and age-specific MDA compliance may affect the risk of LF resurgence after transmission interruption. METHODOLOGY: We used LYMFASIM model with parameters in line with the context of southeastern Madagascar and explored a wide range of scenarios with different MDA compliance for adults and children (40-100%) to estimate the proportion of elimination, non-elimination and resurgence events associated with each scenario. Finally, we evaluated the risk of resurgence associated with different levels of migration (2-6%) from surrounding districts combined with varying levels of LF microfilaria (mf) prevalence (0-24%) during that same study period. RESULTS: Differences in MDA compliance between adults and children better explained the observed heterogeneity in LF prevalence for these age groups than differences in exposure alone. The risk of resurgence associated with differences in MDA compliance scenarios ranged from 0 to 19% and was highest when compliance was high for children (e.g. 90%) and low for adults (e.g. 50%). The risk of resurgence associated with migration was generally higher, exceeding 60% risk for all the migration levels explored (2-6% per year) when mf prevalence in the source districts was between 9% and 20%. CONCLUSION: Gaps in the implementation of LF elimination programme can increase the risk of resurgence and undermine elimination efforts. In Madagascar, districts that have not attained elimination pose a significant risk for those that have achieved it. More research is needed to help guide LF elimination programme on the optimal strategies for surveillance and control that maximize the chances to sustain elimination and avoid resurgence.

Host Nuclear Genome Copy Number Variations Identify High-Risk Anal Precancers in People Living With HIV.

BACKGROUND: People living with HIV (PLWH) have substantially increased incidence of anal precancer and cancer. There are very little data regarding genomic disturbances in anal precancers among PLWH. In this study, specific chromosomal variants were identified in anal squamous intraepithelial lesions. METHODS: Overall, 63 anal biopsy specimens (27 low-grade intraepithelial lesions [LSIL] and 36 high-grade intraepithelial lesions [HSIL]) were collected from PLWH obtained as part of anal cancer screening in our NYC-based health system. Data on patient demographics, anal cytological, and high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) diagnoses were collected. Specimens were tested for a panel of chromosomal alterations associated with HPV-induced oncogenesis using fluorescence in situ hybridization, and analyses compared the associations of these alterations with clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Gains of 3q26, 5p15, 20q13, and cen7 were detected in 42%, 31%, 31%, and 19% of HSIL compared with 7%, 0%, 4%, and 0% of LSIL, respectively. If at least 1 abnormality was observed, 89% had a 3q26 gain. In lesions with 5p15 gains, 20q13 gains co-occurred in 91% of cases, while cen7 gain only co-occurred with the other 3 alterations. The sensitivity and specificity of any alteration to predict HSIL were 47% (95% CI: 30%-65%) and 93% (95% CI: 76%-99%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Genomic alterations seen in HPV-associated cancers may help distinguish anal LSIL from HSIL. 3q26 amplification may be an early component of anal carcinogenesis, preceding 5p16, 20q13, and/or chr7. IMPACT: Insights into potential genomic biomarkers for discriminating high-risk anal precancers are shared.

Applying a zero-corrected, gravity model estimator reduces bias due to heterogeneity in healthcare utilization in community-scale, passive surveillance datasets of endemic diseases.

Data on population health are vital to evidence-based decision making but are rarely adequately localized or updated in continuous time. They also suffer from low ascertainment rates, particularly in rural areas where barriers to healthcare can cause infrequent touch points with the health system. Here, we demonstrate a novel statistical method to estimate the incidence of endemic diseases at the community level from passive surveillance data collected at primary health centers. The zero-corrected, gravity-model (ZERO-G) estimator explicitly models sampling intensity as a function of health facility characteristics and statistically accounts for extremely low rates of ascertainment. The result is a standardized, real-time estimate of disease incidence at a spatial resolution nearly ten times finer than typically reported by facility-based passive surveillance systems. We assessed the robustness of this method by applying it to a case study of field-collected malaria incidence rates from a rural health district in southeastern Madagascar. The ZERO-G estimator decreased geographic and financial bias in the dataset by over 90% and doubled the agreement rate between spatial patterns in malaria incidence and incidence estimates derived from prevalence surveys. The ZERO-G estimator is a promising method for adjusting passive surveillance data of common, endemic diseases, increasing the availability of continuously updated, high quality surveillance datasets at the community scale.

Morbidity and mortality burden of COVID-19 in rural Madagascar: results from a longitudinal cohort and nested seroprevalence study.

INTRODUCTION: Three years into the pandemic, there remains significant uncertainty about the true infection and mortality burden of COVID-19 in the World Health Organization Africa region. High quality, population-representative studies in Africa are rare and tend to be conducted in national capitals or large cities, leaving a substantial gap in our understanding of the impact of COVID-19 in rural, low-resource settings. Here, we estimated the spatio-temporal morbidity and mortality burden associated with COVID-19 in a rural health district of Madagascar until the first half of 2021. METHODS: We integrated a nested seroprevalence study within a pre-existing longitudinal cohort conducted in a representative sample of 1600 households in Ifanadiana District, Madagascar. Socio-demographic and health information was collected in combination with dried blood spots for about 6500 individuals of all ages, which were analysed to detect IgG and IgM antibodies against four specific proteins of SARS-CoV-2 in a bead-based multiplex immunoassay. We evaluated spatio-temporal patterns in COVID-19 infection history and its associations with several geographic, socio-economic and demographic factors via logistic regressions. RESULTS: Eighteen percent of people had been infected by April-June 2021, with seroprevalence increasing with individuals' age. COVID-19 primarily spread along the only paved road and in major towns during the first epidemic wave, subsequently spreading along secondary roads during the second wave to more remote areas. Wealthier individuals and those with occupations such as commerce and formal employment were at higher risk of being infected in the first wave. Adult mortality increased in 2020, particularly for older men for whom it nearly doubled up to nearly 40 deaths per 1000. Less than 10% of mortality in this period would be directly attributed to COVID-19 deaths if known infection fatality ratios are applied to observed seroprevalence in the district. CONCLUSION: Our study provides a very granular understanding on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in a rural population of sub-Saharan Africa and suggests that the disease burden in these areas may have been substantially underestimated.

Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar.

While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.

Decision-making experiences of young adults with long-term conditions.

BACKGROUND: Young adults with long-term conditions can struggle to accept their diagnosis and can become overwhelmed with managing their condition. Suboptimal transfer from paediatric to adult services with a resultant disengagement with the service can result in less involvement in care and decision-making. Shared decision-making can improve involvement in health decisions and increase satisfaction with treatment/therapy and care. OBJECTIVES: An integrative literature review was conducted to explore and understand young adults' experiences of decision-making in health care. DESIGN: An integrative literature review. DATA SOURCES: CINAHL, EMCARE, PsycINFO, HMIC, EMBASE, Web of Science, PubMed, MEDLINE, EBSCOHOST and COCHRANE databases were searched for relevant literature published between January 1999 and January 2020. FINDINGS: Thirteen primary research papers met the inclusion criteria. Four main themes were identified: (1) Information delivery and communication; (2) participation in decision-making; (3) social factors influencing decision-making and (4) emotional impact of decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Young adults with long-term conditions have specific decision-making needs which can impact their emotional health. Research with a specific focus on young adults' experiences of decision-making in health care is needed.

A Data-driven Horizon Scan of Bacterial Pathogens at the Wildlife-livestock Interface.

Many livestock diseases rely on wildlife for the transmission or maintenance of the pathogen, and the wildlife-livestock interface represents a potential site of disease emergence for novel pathogens in livestock. Predicting which pathogen species are most likely to emerge in the future is an important challenge for infectious disease surveillance and intelligence. We used a machine learning approach to conduct a data-driven horizon scan of bacterial associations at the wildlife-livestock interface for cows, sheep, and pigs. Our model identified and ranked from 76 to 189 potential novel bacterial species that might associate with each livestock species. Wildlife reservoirs of known and novel bacteria were shared among all three species, suggesting that targeting surveillance and/or control efforts towards these reservoirs could contribute disproportionately to reducing spillover risk to livestock. By predicting pathogen-host associations at the wildlife-livestock interface, we demonstrate one way to plan for and prevent disease emergence in livestock.