The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Canada: a time-series study, 2020-2023.

BACKGROUND: During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of reported cases of COVID-19 among Canadians was under 6%. Although high vaccine coverage was achieved in Canada by fall 2021, the Omicron variant caused unprecedented numbers of infections, overwhelming testing capacity and making it difficult to quantify the trajectory of population immunity. METHODS: Using a time-series approach and data from more than 900 000 samples collected by 7 research studies collaborating with the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force (CITF), we estimated trends in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence owing to infection and vaccination for the Canadian population over 3 intervals: prevaccination (March to November 2020), vaccine roll-out (December 2020 to November 2021), and the arrival of the Omicron variant (December 2021 to March 2023). We also estimated seroprevalence by geographical region and age. RESULTS: By November 2021, 9.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] 7.3%-11%) of people in Canada had humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from an infection. Seroprevalence increased rapidly after the arrival of the Omicron variant - by Mar. 15, 2023, 76% (95% CrI 74%-79%) of the population had detectable antibodies from infections. The rapid rise in infection-induced antibodies occurred across Canada and was most pronounced in younger age groups and in the Western provinces: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. INTERPRETATION: Data up to March 2023 indicate that most people in Canada had acquired antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 through natural infection and vaccination. However, given variations in population seropositivity by age and geography, the potential for waning antibody levels, and new variants that may escape immunity, public health policy and clinical decisions should be tailored to local patterns of population immunity.

Active testing of groups at increased risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 in Canada: costs and human resource needs.

BACKGROUND: Testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is largely passive, which impedes epidemic control. We defined active testing strategies for SARS-CoV-2 using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for groups at increased risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 in all Canadian provinces. METHODS: We identified 5 groups who should be prioritized for active RT-PCR testing: contacts of people who are positive for SARS-CoV-2, and 4 at-risk populations - hospital employees, community health care workers and people in long-term care facilities, essential business employees, and schoolchildren and staff. We estimated costs, human resources and laboratory capacity required to test people in each group or to perform surveillance testing in random samples. RESULTS: During July 8-17, 2020, across all provinces in Canada, an average of 41 751 RT-PCR tests were performed daily; we estimated this required 5122 personnel and cost $2.4 million per day ($67.8 million per month). Systematic contact tracing and testing would increase personnel needs 1.2-fold and monthly costs to $78.9 million. Conducted over a month, testing all hospital employees would require 1823 additional personnel, costing $29.0 million; testing all community health care workers and persons in long-term care facilities would require 11 074 additional personnel and cost $124.8 million; and testing all essential employees would cost $321.7 million, requiring 25 965 added personnel. Testing the larger population within schools over 6 weeks would require 46 368 added personnel and cost $816.0 million. Interventions addressing inefficiencies, including saliva-based sampling and pooling samples, could reduce costs by 40% and personnel by 20%. Surveillance testing in population samples other than contacts would cost 5% of the cost of a universal approach to testing at-risk populations. INTERPRETATION: Active testing of groups at increased risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 appears feasible and would support the safe reopening of the economy and schools more broadly. This strategy also appears affordable compared with the $169.2 billion committed by the federal government as a response to the pandemic as of June 2020.

Moving towards universal health coverage: lessons from 11 country studies.

In recent years, many countries have adopted universal health coverage (UHC) as a national aspiration. In response to increasing demand for a systematic assessment of global experiences with UHC, the Government of Japan and the World Bank collaborated on a 2-year multicountry research programme to analyse the processes of moving towards UHC. The programme included 11 countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Ethiopia, France, Ghana, Indonesia, Japan, Peru, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam), representing diverse geographical, economic, and historical contexts. The study identified common challenges and opportunities and useful insights for how to move towards UHC. The study showed that UHC is a complex process, fraught with challenges, many possible pathways, and various pitfalls--but is also feasible and achievable. Movement towards UHC is a long-term policy engagement that needs both technical knowledge and political know-how. Technical solutions need to be accompanied by pragmatic and innovative strategies that address the national political economy context.

Dépistage actif chez les groupes courant un risque accru de contracter le SRAS-CoV-2 au Canada : coûts et ressources humaines nécessaires.

CONTEXTE: Le dépistage du coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère 2 (SRAS-CoV-2) est en grande partie passif, ce qui nuit au contrôle de l'épidémie. Nous avons élaboré des stratégies de dépistage actif du SRAS-CoV-2 au moyen d'une amplification en chaîne par polymérase couplée à une transcription inverse (RT-PCR) chez les groupes courant un risque accru de contracter le virus dans les provinces canadiennes. MÉTHODES: Nous avons identifié 5 groupes qui devraient être prioritaires pour le dépistage actif au moyen d'une RTPCR, soit les gens ayant été en contact avec une personne infectée par le SRAS-CoV-2 et ceux qui appartiennent à 4 populations à risque : employés d'hôpitaux, travailleurs en soins de santé communautaires ainsi qu'employés et résidents d'établissements de soins de longue durée, employés d'entreprises essentielles, et élèves et personnel scolaire. Nous avons estimé les coûts, les ressources humaines et la capacité de laboratoire nécessaires au dépistage des membres de ces groupes ou au dépistage sur des échantillons aléatoires aux fins de surveillance. RÉSULTATS: Du 8 au 17 juillet 2020, 41 751 dépistages par RT-PCR étaient réalisés chaque jour en moyenne dans les provinces canadiennes; nous avons estimé que ces tests mobilisaient 5122 employés et coûtaient 2,4 millions de dollars par jour (67,8 millions de dollars par mois). La recherche et le dépistage systématiques des contacts requerraient 1,2 fois plus de personnel et porteraient les coûts mensuels à 78,9 millions de dollars. S'il était réalisé en 1 mois, le dépistage de tous les employés des hôpitaux nécessiterait 1823 travailleurs supplémentaires et coûterait 29,0 millions de dollars. Pour la même période de temps, le dépistage de tous les travailleurs en soins de santé communautaires et de tous les employés et résidents des établissements de soins de longue durée nécessiterait 11 074 employés supplémentaires et coûterait 124,8 millions de dollars, et celui de tous les travailleurs essentiels nécessiterait 25 965 employés supplémentaires et coûterait 321,7 millions de dollars. Enfin, le dépistage sur 6 semaines de la population scolaire nécessiterait 46 368 employés supplémentaires et coûterait 816,0 millions de dollars. Les interventions visant à pallier les inefficacités, comme le dépistage à partir d'échantillons de salive et le regroupement des échantillons, pourraient réduire les coûts de 40 % et les besoins en personnel, de 20 %. Le dépistage de surveillance sur des échantillons de la population autre que les contacts coûterait 5 % des coûts associés à l'adoption d'une approche universelle de dépistage auprès des populations à risque. INTERPRÉTATION: Le dépistage actif des groupes courant un risque accru de contracter le SRAS-CoV-2 semble faisable et favoriserait la réouverture sûre et à grande échelle de l'économie et des écoles. Cette stratégie semble également abordable lorsque comparée aux 169,2 milliards de dollars versés par le gouvernement fédéral dans la lutte contre la pandémie en date de juin 2020.

Harnessing pluralism for better health in Bangladesh.

How do we explain the paradox that Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in health and human development, yet its achievements have taken place within a health system that is frequently characterised as weak, in terms of inadequate physical and human infrastructure and logistics, and low performing? We argue that the development of a highly pluralistic health system environment, defined by the participation of a multiplicity of different stakeholders and agents and by ad hoc, diffused forms of management has contributed to these outcomes by creating conditions for rapid change. We use a combination of data from official sources, research studies, case studies of specific innovations, and in-depth knowledge from our own long-term engagement with health sector issues in Bangladesh to lay out a conceptual framework for understanding pluralism and its outcomes. Although we argue that pluralism has had positive effects in terms of stimulating change and innovation, we also note its association with poor health systems governance and regulation, resulting in endemic problems such as overuse and misuse of drugs. Pluralism therefore requires active management that acknowledges and works with its polycentric nature. We identify four key areas where this management is needed: participatory governance, accountability and regulation, information systems, and capacity development. This approach challenges some mainstream frameworks for managing health systems, such as the building blocks approach of the WHO Health Systems Framework. However, as pluralism increasingly defines the nature and the challenge of 21st century health systems, the experience of Bangladesh is relevant to many countries across the world.

Innovation for universal health coverage in Bangladesh: a call to action.

A post-Millennium Development Goals agenda for health in Bangladesh should be defined to encourage a second generation of health-system innovations under the clarion call of universal health coverage. This agenda should draw on the experience of the first generation of innovations that underlie the country's impressive health achievements and creatively address future health challenges. Central to the reform process will be the development of a multipronged strategic approach that: responds to existing demands in a way that assures affordable, equitable, high-quality health care from a pluralistic health system; anticipates health-care needs in a period of rapid health and social transition; and addresses underlying structural issues that otherwise might hamper progress. A pragmatic reform agenda for achieving universal health coverage in Bangladesh should include development of a long-term national human resources policy and action plan, establishment of a national insurance system, building of an interoperable electronic health information system, investment to strengthen the capacity of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, and creation of a supraministerial council on health. Greater political, financial, and technical investment to implement this reform agenda offers the prospect of a stronger, more resilient, sustainable, and equitable health system.

Explaining equity gains in child survival in Bangladesh: scale, speed, and selectivity in health and development.

By disaggregating gains in child health in Bangladesh over the past several decades, significant improvements in gender and socioeconomic inequities have been revealed. With the use of a social determinants of health approach, key features of the country's development experience can be identified that help explain its unexpected health trajectory. The systematic equity orientation of health and socioeconomic development in Bangladesh, and the implementation attributes of scale, speed, and selectivity, have been important drivers of health improvement. Despite this impressive pro-equity trajectory, there remain significant residual inequities in survival of girls and lower wealth quintiles as well as a host of new health and development challenges such as urbanisation, chronic disease, and climate change. Further progress in sustaining and enhancing equity-oriented achievements in health hinges on stronger governance and longer-term systems thinking regarding how to effectively promote inclusive and equitable development within and beyond the health system.

Smoking-attributable mortality in Bangladesh: proportional mortality study.

OBJECTIVE: To directly estimate how much smoking contributes to cause-specific mortality in Bangladesh. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted with surveillance data from Matlab, a rural subdistrict. Cases (n = 2213) and controls (n = 261) were men aged 25 to 69 years who had died between 2003 and 2010 from smoking-related and non-smoking-related causes, respectively. Cause-specific odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for "ever-smokers" versus "never-smokers", with adjustment for education, tobacco chewing status and age. Smoking-attributable deaths among cases, national attributable fractions and cumulative probability of surviving from 25 to 69 years of age among ever-smokers and never-smokers were also calculated. FINDINGS: The fraction of ever-smokers was about 84% among cases and 73% among controls (OR: 1.7; 99% confidence interval, CI: 1.1-2.5). ORs were highest for cancers and lower for respiratory, vascular and other diseases. A dose-response relationship was noted between age at smoking initiation and daily number of cigarettes or bidis smoked and the risk of death. Among 25-year-old Bangladeshi men, 32% of ever-smokers will die before reaching 70 years of age, compared with 19% of never-smokers. In 2010, about 25% of all deaths observed in Bangladeshi men aged 25 to 69 years (i.e. 42,000 deaths) were attributable to smoking. CONCLUSION: Smoking causes about 25% of all deaths in Bangladeshi men aged 25 to 69 years and an average loss of seven years of life per smoker. Without a substantial increase in smoking cessation rates, which are low among Bangladeshi men, smoking-attributable deaths in Bangladesh are likely to increase.

Retaining Doctors in Rural Bangladesh: A Policy Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Retaining doctors in rural areas is a challenge in Bangladesh. In this study, we analyzed three rural retention policies: career development programs, compulsory services, and schools outside major cities - in terms of context, contents, actors, and processes. METHODS: Series of group discussions between policy-makers and researchers prompted the selection of policy areas, which were analyzed using the policy triangle framework. We conducted document and literature reviews (1971-2013), key informant interviews (KIIs) with relevant policy elites (n=11), and stakeholder analysis/position-mapping. RESULTS: In policy-1, we found, applicants with relevant expertise were not leveraged in recruitment, promotions were often late and contingent on post-graduation. Career tracks were porous and unplanned: people without necessary expertise or experience were deployed to high positions by lateral migration from unrelated career tracks or ministries, as opposed to vertical promotion. Promotions were often politically motivated. In policy-2, females were not ensured to stay with their spouse in rural areas, health bureaucrats working at district and sub-district levels relaxed their monitoring for personal gain or political pressure. Impractical rural posts were allegedly created to graft money from applicants in exchange for recruitment assurance. Compulsory service was often waived for political affiliates. In policy-3, we found an absence of clear policy documents obligating establishment of medical colleges in rural areas. These were established based on political consideration (public sector) or profit motives (private sector). CONCLUSION: Four cross-cutting themes were identified: lack of proper systems or policies, vested interest or corruption, undue political influence, and imbalanced power and position of some stakeholders. Based on findings, we recommend, in policy-1, applicants with relevant expertise to be recruited; recruitment should be quick, customized, and transparent; career tracks (General Health Service, Medical Teaching, Health Administration) must be clearly defined, distinct, and respected. In policy-2, facilities must be ensured prior to postings, female doctors should be prioritized to stay with the spouse, field bureaucrats should receive non-practising allowance in exchange of strict monitoring, and no political interference in compulsory service is assured. In policy-3, specific policy guidelines should be developed to establish rural medical colleges. Political commitment is a key to rural retention of doctors.

Catastrophic healthcare expenditure and poverty related to out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Bangladesh-an estimation of financial risk protection of universal health coverage.

The Sustainable Development Goals target to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC), including financial risk protection (FRP) among other dimensions. There are four indicators of FRP, namely incidence of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), mean positive catastrophic overshoot, incidence of impoverishment and increase in the depth of poverty occur for high out-of-pocket (OOP) healthcare spending. OOP spending is the major payment strategy for healthcare in most low-and-middle-income countries, such as Bangladesh. Large and unpredictable health payments can expose households to substantial financial risk and, at their most extreme, can result in poverty. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of OOP spending on CHE and poverty, i.e. status of FRP for UHC in Bangladesh. A nationally representative Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010 was used to determine household consumption expenditure and health-related spending in the last 30 days. Mean CHE headcount and its concentration indices (CI) were calculated. The propensity of facing CHE for households was predicted by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The poverty headcount was estimated using 'total household consumption expenditure' and such expenditure without OOP payments for health in comparison with the poverty-line measured by cost of basic need. In absolute values, a pro-rich distribution of OOP payment for healthcare was found in urban and rural Bangladesh. At the 10%-threshold level, in total 14.2% of households faced CHE with 1.9% overshoot. 16.5% of the poorest and 9.2% of the richest households faced CHE. An overall pro-poor distribution was found for CHE (CI = -0.064) in both urban and rural households, while the former had higher CHE incidences. The poverty headcount increased by 3.5% (5.1 million individuals) due to OOP payments. Reliance on OOP payments for healthcare in Bangladesh should be reduced for poverty alleviation in urban and rural Bangladesh in order to secure FRP for UHC.

Redefining the measure of medical education: harnessing the transformative potential of MEPI.

The massive shortage of skilled health professionals in many parts of the world is a critical constraint to achieving the goal of universal health coverage. This shortfall reflects a generalized failure of leadership: a chronic misalignment between the direction of health professional education and the health goals of society. The Medical Education Partnership Initiative (MEPI) and Nurse Education Partnership Initiative (NEPI) are outliers in this regard through their deliberate efforts to revitalize education to address the pressing health needs of Sub-Saharan Africa. Inspired by this example, the World Bank Group sees health professional education institutions (HPEIs) as an insufficiently tapped source of knowledge and know-how for accelerating health achievement. The challenge ahead is to articulate clearer expectations for HPEI performance, marshal more and smarter investments across the public and private sectors, prioritize accountability, incentivize innovation, and strengthen global learning and evaluation. It is time to build on the positive legacy of MEPI/NEPI and ensure that the conditions are made available for a new generation of health workers with the competencies to meet the health and development challenges of today and tomorrow.