The spatial distribution of soil organic carbon in tidal wetland soils of the continental United States.

Tidal wetlands contain large reservoirs of carbon in their soils and can sequester carbon dioxide (CO2 ) at a greater rate per unit area than nearly any other ecosystem. The spatial distribution of this carbon influences climate and wetland policy. To assist with international accords such as the Paris Climate Agreement, national-level assessments such as the United States (U.S.) National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, and regional, state, local, and project-level evaluation of CO2 sequestration credits, we developed a geodatabase (CoBluCarb) and high-resolution maps of soil organic carbon (SOC) distribution by linking National Wetlands Inventory data with the U.S. Soil Survey Geographic Database. For over 600,000 wetlands, the total carbon stock and organic carbon density was calculated at 5-cm vertical resolution from 0 to 300 cm of depth. Across the continental United States, there are 1,153-1,359 Tg of SOC in the upper 0-100 cm of soils across a total of 24 945.9 km2 of tidal wetland area, twice as much carbon as the most recent national estimate. Approximately 75% of this carbon was found in estuarine emergent wetlands with freshwater tidal wetlands holding about 19%. The greatest pool of SOC was found within the Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bay complex in Louisiana, containing about 10% of the U.S. total. The average density across all tidal wetlands was 0.071 g cm-3 across 0-15 cm, 0.055 g cm-3 across 0-100 cm, and 0.040 g cm-3 at the 100 cm depth. There is inherent variability between and within individual wetlands; however, we conclude that it is possible to use standardized values at a range of 0-100 cm of the soil profile, to provide first-order quantification and to evaluate future changes in carbon stocks in response to environmental perturbations. This Tier 2-oriented carbon stock assessment provides a scientific method that can be copied by other nations in support of international requirements.

An asymmetry in wave scaling drives outsized quantities of coastal wetland erosion.

Wetland shorelines around the world are susceptible to wave erosion. Previous work has suggested that the lateral erosion rate of their cliff-like edges can be predicted as a function of intercepting waves, and yet numerous field studies have shown that other factors, for example, tidal currents or mass wasting of differing soil types, induce a wide range of variability. Our objective was to isolate the unique effects of wave heights, wavelengths, and water depths on lateral erosion rates and then synthesize a mechanistic understanding that can be applied globally. We found a potentially universal relationship, where the lateral erosion rates increase exponentially as waves increase in height but decrease exponentially as waves become longer in length. These findings suggest that wetlands and other sheltered coastlines likely experience outsized quantities of erosion, as compared to oceanic-facing coastlines.

Does vegetation accelerate coastal dune erosion during extreme events?

A broadly accepted paradigm is that vegetation reduces coastal dune erosion. However, we show that during an extreme storm event, vegetation surprisingly accelerates erosion. In 104-m-long beach-dune profile experiments conducted within a flume, we discovered that while vegetation initially creates a physical barrier to wave energy, it also (i) decreases wave run-up, which creates discontinuities in erosion and accretion patterns across the dune slope, (ii) increases water penetration into the sediment bed, which induces its fluidization and destabilization, and (iii) reflects wave energy, accelerating scarp formation. Once a discontinuous scarp forms, the erosion accelerates further. These findings fundamentally alter the current understanding of how natural and vegetated features may provide protection during extreme events.

A general pattern of trade-offs between ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones.

Tropical cyclones drive coastal ecosystem dynamics, and their frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution are predicted to shift with climate change. Patterns of resistance and resilience were synthesized for 4138 ecosystem time series from n = 26 storms occurring between 1985 and 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere to predict how coastal ecosystems will respond to future disturbance regimes. Data were grouped by ecosystems (fresh water, salt water, terrestrial, and wetland) and response categories (biogeochemistry, hydrography, mobile biota, sedentary fauna, and vascular plants). We observed a repeated pattern of trade-offs between resistance and resilience across analyses. These patterns are likely the outcomes of evolutionary adaptation, they conform to disturbance theories, and they indicate that consistent rules may govern ecosystem susceptibility to tropical cyclones.

Predicting the impacts of future sea-level rise on an endangered lagomorph.

Human-induced global climate change presents a unique and difficult challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. Despite increasing attention on global climate change, few studies have assessed the projected impacts of sea-level rise to threatened and endangered species. Therefore, we estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) across its geographic distribution under scenarios of current conditions, low (0.3-m), medium (0.6-m), and high (0.9-m) sea-level rise. We also investigated the impacts of allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration and of two land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of human-dominated areas). Not surprisingly, under all simulations we found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce the impact of global climate change on biodiversity and endangered species. At the regional level, managers must consider land-use planning needs that take into account the needs of both humans and biodiversity. Finally, at the local scale those agencies that are in charge of endangered species conservation and ecosystem management need to rethink static approaches to conservation or else stand by and watch ecosystems degrade and species go extinct. This can be accomplished by bioclimatic reserve systems where climatically underrepresented areas are included in conservation planning along with the standard concerns of threat, opportunity, connectivity, and viability.