Predictors of long-term survival among first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in a Brazilian stroke cohort.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke to identify prognostic factors associated to long-term stroke survival. We investigated long-term survival and predictors that could adversely influence ischemic and hemorrhagic first-ever stroke prognosis. METHODS: We prospectively ascertained 665 consecutive first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke cases from "The Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity" (The EMMA Study) in a community hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. We evaluated cardiovascular risk factors and sociodemographic characteristics (age, gender, race and educational level). RESULTS: We found a lower survival rate among hemorrhagic cases compared to ischemic stroke cases at the end of 4 years of follow-up (52% vs. 44%, p = 0.04). The risk of death was two times higher among people with ischemic stroke without formal education. Also, we found consistently higher risk of death for diabetics with ischemic stroke (HR = 1.45; 95% CI = 1.07-1.97) compared to no diabetics. As expected, age equally influenced on the high risk of poor survival, regardless of stroke subtype. CONCLUSIONS: For ischemic stroke, the lack of formal education and diabetes were significant independent predictors of poor long-term survival.

Early and one-year stroke case fatality in Sao Paulo, Brazil: applying the World Health Organization's stroke STEPS.

Case fatality rate is considered a main determinant of stroke mortality trends. We applied the World Health Organization's Stroke STEPS to identify case fatality rates in a community hospital in Brazil. We evaluated all patients with first-ever stroke seeking acute care at the hospital's emergency ward between April 2006 and December 2008 to verify early and late case fatality according to stroke subtype. We used years of formal education as a surrogate for socioeconomic status. Of 430 first-ever stroke events, 365 (84.9%) were ischemic and 65 (15.1%) were intracerebral hemorrhage. After 1 year, we adjudicated 108 deaths (86 ischemic; 22 hemorrhagic). Age-adjusted case fatality rates for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage were 6.0% v 19.8% at 10 days, 10.6% v 22.1% at 28 days, 17.6% v 29.1% at 6 months, and 21.0% v 31.5% at 1 year. Illiteracy or no formal education was a predictor of death at 6 months (odds ratio [OR], 4.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-13.91) and 1 year (OR, 4.21; 95% CI, 1.45-12.28) in patients with ischemic stroke, as well as at 6 months (OR, 3.19; 95% CI, 1.17-8.70) and 1 year (OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 1.30-8.45) for all stroke patients. Other variables, including previous cardiovascular risk factors and acute medical care, did not change this association to a statistically significant degree. In conclusion, case fatality, particularly up to 6 months, was higher in hemorrhagic stroke, and lack of formal education was associated with increased stroke mortality.

Income inequalities and stroke mortality trends in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1996-2011.

BACKGROUND: It is not clear the relationship between stroke mortality trends and socioeconomic inequalities in low- and middle-income countries. AIMS: We compared differences of trends in stroke mortality by socioeconomic status in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: We analyzed the intra-urban distribution of stroke death rates from 1996 to 2011 for persons aged 35-74 years old according to income using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: We confirmed 77 848 stroke deaths in the period, 51·4% of them among persons aged 35-74 years old. For all areas, there was parallelism between genders, and the average annual percent changes combined was -5·2 (-5·7 to -4·6) from 1996 to 2005 and -3·0 (-4·3 to -1·7) from 2005 to 2011. The full period average annual percent changes of age-adjusted rates between persons living in the high- and low-income area were, respectively, -5·4 and -4·2 (P = 0·002) for men and -5·9 vs. -4·9 (P = 0·017) for women. Differences in the risk of stroke between the high- and low-income areas increased more than twofold in the period in both genders. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of stroke death is decreasing in all regions, but the faster decline in mortality rates in the wealthiest area contributes to further greater inequalities.

A reappraisal of stroke mortality trends in Brazil (1979-2009).

BACKGROUND: Brazil has one of the highest cerebrovascular death rates in the Western Hemisphere. We investigated temporal trends according to gender and stroke subtypes. METHODS: We analyzed mortality rates between 1979 and 2009 for different stroke subtypes. Data were stratified by gender and age (35-74 years). The annual percent change and significant changes in the trends were identified with Poisson regression. RESULTS: After excluding deaths due to sequel from stroke for men, the annual percent changes (95% confidence intervals) were as follows: 1979-1984, 0.7 (-0.8 to 2.1); 1984-1994, -1.8 (-2.4 to -1.2); 1994-2007, -5.0 (-5.4 to -4.7); and 2007-2009, -0.8 (-7.0 to 5.8). For women, the annual percent changes were as follows: 1979-1994, -1.9 (-2.2 to -1.6); 1994-1997, -7.5 (-14.0 to -0.6); 1997-2007, -4.0 (-4.6 to -3.3); and 2007-2009, 1.6 (-5.5 to 9.2). For the 2006-2009 period, the average annual percent change (95% confidence interval) for all strokes was -3.1 (-3.3 to -2.9) for men and -2.9 (-3.1 to -2.8) for women. For the same period, the average annual percent change of death rates for stroke subtypes were, for men and women, respectively: intracerebral hemorrhage, -4.0 (-4.9 to -3.1) and -2.9 (-3.4 to -2.3); and ischemic stroke, -3.2 (-3.3 to -3.0) and -1.4 (-2.0 to -0.9). CONCLUSION: Stroke mortality rates are declining in Brazil for all stroke subtypes.

Income and heart disease mortality trends in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1996 to 2010.

BACKGROUND: Reductions in heart disease mortality rates are variable according to socioeconomic status. METHODS: We performed a time trend analysis of all heart diseases (all circulatory diseases, except rheumatic, cerebrovascular, and aortic diseases) comparing three different household income levels (high, middle, and low) in the city of Sao Paulo from 1996 to 2010. RESULTS: A total of 197,770 deaths were attributed to heart diseases; 62% of them were due to coronary diseases. The rate of death due to heart diseases declined for the city as a whole. The annual percent change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals for men living in the high, middle and low income areas were -4.1 (-4.5 to -3.8), -3.0 (-3.5 to -2.6), and -2.5 (-2.8 to -2.1), respectively. The decline in death rate was greatest among men in the wealthiest area. The trend rates of women living in the high-income area had one joinpoint; APC was -4.4 (-4.8 to -3.9) from 1996-2005 and -2.6 (-3.8 to -1.4) from 2005-2010. Middle and low income areas had an APC of -3.6 (-4.1 to -3.1) and -3.0 (-3.2 to -2.7) from 1996-2010, respectively. During the last 5years of observation, there was a gradient of the decline of the risk of death, faster for people living in the wealthiest area and slower for people living in the more deprived neighborhoods. CONCLUSION: Reduction in deaths due to heart diseases is greatest for men and women living in the wealthiest neighborhoods.

Suicide rates and trends in São Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in São Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. METHODS: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. RESULTS: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of São Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Educational levels and the functional dependence of ischemic stroke survivors.

We evaluated the functional dependence of stroke survivors from the Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity, using the Rankin Scale. Out of 355 ischemic stroke survivors (with a mean age of 67.9 years), 40% had some functional dependence at 28 days and 34.4% had some functional dependence at 6 months. Most predictors of physical dependence were identified at 28 days. These predictors were: low levels of education [illiterate vs. ≥ 8 years of education, multivariate odds ratio (OR) = 3.7; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.60-8.54] and anatomical stroke location (total anterior circulation infarct, OR = 16.9; 95%CI: 2.93-97.49). Low levels of education and ischemic brain injury influenced functional dependence in these stroke survivors. Our findings reinforce the necessity of developing strategies for the rehabilitation of stroke patients, more especially in formulating specific strategies for care and treatment of stroke survivors with low socioeconomic status.

Early stroke case-fatality rates in three hospital registries in the Northeast and Southeast of Brazil.

UNLABELLED: Few studies have addressed early cerebrovascular lethality in Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate 10 and 28-day stroke case-fatality rates in three hospitals in three Brazilian cities. METHODS: We described the stroke registries in São Paulo, João Pessoa, and Natal. RESULTS: Out of a total of 962 first-ever events (mean age, 68.1 years-old; 53% men), 83.6% (804 cases) were classified as ischemic and 16.4% (158) as hemorrhagic stroke. Overall, the case-fatality rates and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for hemorrhagic stroke events were higher than for ischemic events, both at 10 (12.3%; 95%CI 7.2-17.4 versus 7.0%; 95%CI 5.3-8.8) and at 28 days (19.8%; 95%CI 13.6-26.0 versus 11.1%; 95%CI 8.9-13.3). CONCLUSIONS: We did not find any substantial differences in early case-fatality rates according to stroke subtypes, when comparing the three centers.

Suicide rates and trends in São Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis / Taxas de suicídio e tendências em São Paulo, Brasil, de acordo com gênero, faixa etária e aspectos demográficos

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in São Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. METHODS: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. RESULTS: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of São Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

OBJETIVO: Avaliar as taxas de suicídio e as tendências em São Paulo por gênero, faixa etária e métodos. MÉTODOS: Dados de mortalidade foram coletados a partir de bases de dados da Prefeitura de São Paulo de 1996-2009. A população total foi estimada utilizando dados do Censo Nacional. Utilizamos o programa Joinpoint regression analysis para explorar tendências temporais. Também avaliamos estado civil, etnia, local de nascimento e métodos de suicídio. RESULTADOS: No período, ocorreram 6.002 suicídios, uma taxa de 4,6 por 100.000 habitantes (7,5 em homens e 2,0 em mulheres), a relação masculino-feminino foi cerca de 3,7. Tendências de suicídio para os homens apresentaram uma queda significativa de 5,3% por ano entre 1996 e 2002, e um aumento significativo de 2,5% ao ano a partir de 2002. Mulheres não apresentaram alterações significativas na tendência. Para os homens, os idosos (> 65 anos) tiveram uma redução significativa de 2,3% ao ano, enquanto os homens mais novos (25-44 anos) apresentaram um aumento significativo de 8,6% ao ano a partir de 2004. Mulheres não apresentaram alterações significativas na tendência por faixa etária. Principais métodos de suicídio foram enforcamento e envenenamento, para homens e mulheres respectivamente. Outras análises mostraram um aumento do risco relativo ao suicídio para os solteiros e estrangeiros. CONCLUSÕES: Foram identificadas tendências epidemiológicas específicas do suicídio na cidade de São Paulo que merecem uma investigação mais aprofundada. Grupos de alto risco - como os imigrantes - poderiam se beneficiar com estratégias focalizadas na prevenção do suicídio.

Educational levels and the functional dependence of ischemic stroke survivors / Nível de escolaridade e dependência funcional em sobreviventes de acidente vascular cerebral isquêmico

We evaluated the functional dependence of stroke survivors from the Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity, using the Rankin Scale. Out of 355 ischemic stroke survivors (with a mean age of 67.9 years), 40% had some functional dependence at 28 days and 34.4% had some functional dependence at 6 months. Most predictors of physical dependence were identified at 28 days. These predictors were: low levels of education [illiterate vs. > 8 years of education, multivariate odds ratio (OR) = 3.7; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.60-8.54] and anatomical stroke location (total anterior circulation infarct, OR = 16.9; 95%CI: 2.93-97.49). Low levels of education and ischemic brain injury influenced functional dependence in these stroke survivors. Our findings reinforce the necessity of developing strategies for the rehabilitation of stroke patients, more especially in formulating specific strategies for care and treatment of stroke survivors with low socioeconomic status.

Foi avaliada a dependência funcional em sobreviventes de acidente vascular cerebral (AVC) do Estudo da Mortalidade e Morbidade do Acidente Vascular Cerebral, utilizando a Escala de Rankin. De 355 sobreviventes com AVC isquêmico (idade média de 67,9 anos), 40% tinham dependência funcional em 28 dias e 34,4% em 6 meses. Os principais indicadores de dependência física foram identificados em 28 dias, e eram: baixa escolaridade (analfabetos vs. > 8 anos de educação, RC = 3,7; IC95%: 1,60-8,54) e localização do AVC (infarto circulação total anterior, RC = 16,9; IC95%: 2,93-97,49). Baixo nível educacional e insulto cerebral isquêmico influenciaram o grau de dependência funcional nesses sobreviventes de AVC. Nossos achados reforçam a necessidade de desenvolvimento de estratégias para reabilitação de pacientes com AVC e formulação de estratégias específicas de atenção e tratamento para essas pessoas, especialmente na população com baixo nível socioeconômico.

Early stroke case-fatality rates in three hospital registries in the Northeast and Southeast of Brazil / Taxas de letalidade precoce por acidente vascular cerebral em três registros hospitalares no nordeste e sudeste do Brasil

Few studies have addressed early cerebrovascular lethality in Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate 10 and 28-day stroke case-fatality rates in three hospitals in three Brazilian cities. METHODS: We described the stroke registries in São Paulo, João Pessoa, and Natal. RESULTS: Out of a total of 962 first-ever events (mean age, 68.1 years-old; 53% men), 83.6% (804 cases) were classified as ischemic and 16.4% (158) as hemorrhagic stroke. Overall, the case-fatality rates and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for hemorrhagic stroke events were higher than for ischemic events, both at 10 (12.3%; 95%CI 7.2-17.4 versus 7.0%; 95%CI 5.3-8.8) and at 28 days (19.8%; 95%CI 13.6-26.0 versus 11.1%; 95%CI 8.9-13.3). CONCLUSIONS: We did not find any substantial differences in early case-fatality rates according to stroke subtypes, when comparing the three centers.

Poucos estudos abordaram a letalidade cerebrovascular precoce no Brasil. OBJETIVO: Avaliar taxas de letalidade por acidente vascular cerebral (AVC) em 10 e 28 dias após evento em três hospitais em três cidades brasileiras. MÉTODOS: Foram descritos os registros de AVC em São Paulo, João Pessoa e Natal. RESULTADOS: De um total de 962 primeiros eventos (idade média de 68,1 anos; 53% homens), 83,6% (804 casos) foram classificados como AVC isquêmico e 16,4% (158) como hemorrágico. As taxas de letalidade e intervalos de confiança de 95% (IC95%) para eventos de AVC hemorrágico foram maiores que para os isquêmicos em: 10 (12,3%; IC95% 7,2-17,4 versus 7,0%; IC95% 5,3-8,8) e 28 dias (19,8%; IC95% 13,6-26,0 versus 11,1%; IC95% 8,9-13,3). CONCLUSÕES: Não foram encontradas diferenças substanciais nas taxas de letalidade precoce por subtipo de AVC ao comparar os três centros estudados.