Diagnostic accuracy of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0) in an urban Indigenous Australian sample.

OBJECTIVE: The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 is a standardised diagnostic interview commonly used in population-based mental health surveys, but has not been used in community-residing Indigenous Australians. This paper seeks to determine whether the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 can produce valid diagnostic information when compared with a diagnostic interview in an urban Indigenous Australian sample. METHOD: This research was conducted over 10 weeks with adult Indigenous clients of two participating Aboriginal Medical Services in South-East Queensland. Using a cross-sectional, repeated-measures design, participants were administered the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 by an Indigenous interviewer and within 2 weeks attended a second appointment with an Indigenous clinical psychologist, who produced a diagnostic summary. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 diagnoses were compared with the diagnostic summaries and clinical concordance between the two measures was calculated. RESULTS: The diagnostic accuracy of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 differed by module. The Post-traumatic Stress Disorder and Major Depression modules had good utility in diagnosing post-traumatic stress disorder and major depressive episodes, respectively; however, the Mania module that provides diagnoses of bipolar disorder was found to be unsuitable for this population. Although there were no identified contraindications for the use of the Generalised Anxiety and Alcohol Use Disorder modules, further research on the diagnostic accuracy of these modules is warranted. CONCLUSIONS: The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 can accurately diagnose some common mental disorders in an Indigenous Australian population, but was found to be unsuitable for others. Given these findings, care should be taken when using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 in epidemiological prevalence studies with Indigenous Australian populations.

The global gap in treatment coverage for major depressive disorder in 84 countries from 2000-2019: A systematic review and Bayesian meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: The treatment coverage for major depressive disorder (MDD) is low in many parts of the world despite MDD being a major contributor to disability globally. Most existing reviews of MDD treatment coverage do not account for potential sources of study-level heterogeneity that contribute to variation in reported treatment rates. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the evidence and analytically quantify sources of heterogeneity to report updated estimates of MDD treatment coverage and gaps by location and treatment type between 2000 and 2019. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify relevant studies that provided data on treatment rates for MDD between January 1, 2000, and November 26, 2021, from 2 online scholarly databases PubMed and Embase. Cohort and cross-sectional studies were included if treatment rates pertaining to the last 12 months or less were reported directly or if sufficient information was available to calculate this along with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Studies were included if they made use of population-based surveys that were representative of communities, countries, or regions under study. Studies were included if they used established diagnostic criteria to diagnose cases of MDD. Sample and methodological characteristics were extracted from selected studies. Treatment rates were modeled using a Bayesian meta-regression approach and adjusted for select covariates that quantified heterogeneity in the data. These covariates included age, sex, treatment type, location, and choice of MDD assessment tool. A total of 149 studies were included for quantitative analysis. Treatment coverage for health service use ranged from 51% [95% UI 20%, 82%] in high-income locations to 20% [95% UI 1%, 53%] in low- and lower middle-income locations. Treatment coverage for mental health service use ranged from 33% [95% UI 8%, 66%] in high-income locations to 8% [95% UI <1%, 36%] in low- and lower middle-income countries. Minimally adequate treatment (MAT) rates ranged from 23% [95% UI 2%, 55%] in high-income countries to 3% [95% UI <1%, 25%]) in low- and lower middle-income countries. A primary methodological limitation was the lack of sufficient data from low- and lower middle-income countries, which precluded our ability to provide more detailed treatment rate estimates. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that the treatment coverage for MDD continues to be low in many parts of the world and in particular in low- and lower middle-income countries. There is a continued need for routine data collection that will help obtain more accurate estimates of treatment coverage globally.

A comprehensive analysis of mortality-related health metrics associated with mental disorders: a nationwide, register-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews have consistently shown that individuals with mental disorders have an increased risk of premature mortality. Traditionally, this evidence has been based on relative risks or crude estimates of reduced life expectancy. The aim of this study was to compile a comprehensive analysis of mortality-related health metrics associated with mental disorders, including sex-specific and age-specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs) and life-years lost (LYLs), a measure that takes into account age of onset of the disorder. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we included all people younger than 95 years of age who lived in Denmark at some point between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2015. Information on mental disorders was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register and the date and cause of death was obtained from the Danish Register of Causes of Death. We classified mental disorders into ten groups and causes of death into 11 groups, which were further categorised into natural causes (deaths from diseases and medical conditions) and external causes (suicide, homicide, and accidents). For each specific mental disorder, we estimated MRRs using Poisson regression models, adjusting for sex, age, and calendar time, and excess LYLs (ie, difference in LYLs between people with a mental disorder and the general population) for all-cause mortality and for each specific cause of death. FINDINGS: 7 369 926 people were included in our analysis. We found that mortality rates were higher for people with a diagnosis of a mental disorder than for the general Danish population (28·70 deaths [95% CI 28·57-28·82] vs 12·95 deaths [12·93-12·98] per 1000 person-years). Additionally, all types of disorders were associated with higher mortality rates, with MRRs ranging from 1·92 (95% CI 1·91-1·94) for mood disorders to 3·91 (3·87-3·94) for substance use disorders. All types of mental disorders were associated with shorter life expectancies, with excess LYLs ranging from 5·42 years (95% CI 5·36-5·48) for organic disorders in females to 14·84 years (14·70-14·99) for substance use disorders in males. When we examined specific causes of death, we found that males with any type of mental disorder lost fewer years due to neoplasm-related deaths compared with the general population, although their cancer mortality rates were higher. INTERPRETATION: Mental disorders are associated with premature mortality. We provide a comprehensive analysis of mortality by different types of disorders, presenting both MRRs and premature mortality based on LYLs, displayed by age, sex, and cause of death. By providing accurate estimates of premature mortality, we reveal previously underappreciated features related to competing risks and specific causes of death. FUNDING: Danish National Research Foundation.

The prevalence and burden of mental and substance use disorders in Australia: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

OBJECTIVES: Timely and accurate assessments of disease burden are essential for developing effective national health policies. We used the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 to examine burden due to mental and substance use disorders in Australia. METHODS: For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, systematic reviews of epidemiological data were conducted, and data modelled using a Bayesian meta-regression tool to produce prevalence estimates by age, sex, geography and year. Prevalence for each disorder was then combined with a disorder-specific disability weight to give years lived with disability, as a measure of non-fatal burden. Fatal burden was measured as years of life lost due to premature mortality which were calculated by combining the number of deaths due to a disorder with the life expectancy remaining at the time of death. Disability-adjusted life years were calculated by summing years lived with disability and years of life lost to give a measure of total burden. Uncertainty was calculated around all burden estimates. RESULTS: Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of non-fatal burden in Australia in 2015, explaining 24.3% of total years lived with disability, and were the second leading cause of total burden, accounting for 14.6% of total disability-adjusted life years. There was no significant change in the age-standardised disability-adjusted life year rates for mental and substance use disorders from 1990 to 2015. CONCLUSION: Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 found that mental and substance use disorders were leading contributors to disease burden in Australia. Despite several decades of national reform, the burden of mental and substance use disorders remained largely unchanged between 1990 and 2015. To reduce this burden, effective population-level preventions strategies are required in addition to effective interventions of sufficient duration and coverage.

The State of US Health, 1990-2016: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Among US States.

Introduction: Several studies have measured health outcomes in the United States, but none have provided a comprehensive assessment of patterns of health by state. Objective: To use the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to report trends in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors at the state level from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting: A systematic analysis of published studies and available data sources estimates the burden of disease by age, sex, geography, and year. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 causes and 84 risk factors with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. Results: Between 1990 and 2016, overall death rates in the United States declined from 745.2 (95% UI, 740.6 to 749.8) per 100 000 persons to 578.0 (95% UI, 569.4 to 587.1) per 100 000 persons. The probability of death among adults aged 20 to 55 years declined in 31 states and Washington, DC from 1990 to 2016. In 2016, Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth (81.3 years) and Mississippi had the lowest (74.7 years), a 6.6-year difference. Minnesota had the highest HALE at birth (70.3 years), and West Virginia had the lowest (63.8 years), a 6.5-year difference. The leading causes of DALYs in the United States for 1990 and 2016 were ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, while the third leading cause in 1990 was low back pain, and the third leading cause in 2016 was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Opioid use disorders moved from the 11th leading cause of DALYs in 1990 to the 7th leading cause in 2016, representing a 74.5% (95% UI, 42.8% to 93.9%) change. In 2016, each of the following 6 risks individually accounted for more than 5% of risk-attributable DALYs: tobacco consumption, high body mass index (BMI), poor diet, alcohol and drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high blood pressure. Across all US states, the top risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs were due to 1 of the 3 following causes: tobacco consumption (32 states), high BMI (10 states), or alcohol and drug use (8 states). Conclusions and Relevance: There are wide differences in the burden of disease at the state level. Specific diseases and risk factors, such as drug use disorders, high BMI, poor diet, high fasting plasma glucose level, and alcohol use disorders are increasing and warrant increased attention. These data can be used to inform national health priorities for research, clinical care, and policy.

Addressing the burden of mental, neurological, and substance use disorders: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition.

The burden of mental, neurological, and substance use (MNS) disorders increased by 41% between 1990 and 2010 and now accounts for one in every 10 lost years of health globally. This sobering statistic does not take into account the substantial excess mortality associated with these disorders or the social and economic consequences of MNS disorders on affected persons, their caregivers, and society. A wide variety of effective interventions, including drugs, psychological treatments, and social interventions, can prevent and treat MNS disorders. At the population-level platform of service delivery, best practices include legislative measures to restrict access to means of self-harm or suicide and to reduce the availability of and demand for alcohol. At the community-level platform, best practices include life-skills training in schools to build social and emotional competencies. At the health-care-level platform, we identify three delivery channels. Two of these delivery channels are especially relevant from a public health perspective: self-management (eg, web-based psychological therapy for depression and anxiety disorders) and primary care and community outreach (eg, non-specialist health worker delivering psychological and pharmacological management of selected disorders). The third delivery channel, hospital care, which includes specialist services for MNS disorders and first-level hospitals providing other types of services (such as general medicine, HIV, or paediatric care), play an important part for a smaller proportion of cases with severe, refractory, or emergency presentations and for the integration of mental health care in other health-care channels, respectively. The costs of providing a significantly scaled up package of specified cost-effective interventions for prioritised MNS disorders in low-income and lower-middle-income countries is estimated at US$3-4 per head of population per year. Since a substantial proportion of MNS disorders run a chronic and disabling course and adversely affect household welfare, intervention costs should largely be met by government through increased resource allocation and financial protection measures (rather than leaving households to pay out-of-pocket). Moreover, a policy of moving towards universal public finance can also be expected to lead to a far more equitable allocation of public health resources across income groups. Despite this evidence, less than 1% of development assistance for health and government spending on health in low-income and middle-income countries is allocated to the care of people with these disorders. Achieving the health gains associated with prioritised interventions will require not just financial resources, but committed and sustained efforts to address a range of other barriers (such as paucity of human resources, weak governance, and stigma). Ultimately, the goal is to massively increase opportunities for people with MNS disorders to access services without the prospect of discrimination or impoverishment and with the hope of attaining optimal health and social outcomes.

The prevalence and burden of bipolar disorder: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

OBJECTIVES: We present the global burden of bipolar disorder based on findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013). METHODS: Data on the epidemiology of bipolar disorder were obtained from a systematic literature review and assembled using Bayesian meta-regression modelling to produce prevalence by country, age, sex and year. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights quantifying the severity of the health loss associated with bipolar disorder. As there were no years of life lost (YLLs) attributed to bipolar disorder, YLDs equated to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as a measure of total burden. RESULTS: There were 32.7 million cases of bipolar disorder globally in 1990 and 48.8 million in 2013; equivalent to a 49.1% increase in prevalent cases, all accounted for by population increase and ageing. Bipolar disorder accounted for 9.9 million DALYs in 2013, explaining 0.4% of total DALYs and 1.3% of total YLDs. There were 5.5 million DALYs recorded for female individuals and 4.4 million for male individuals. DALYs were evident from age 10 years, peaked in the 20s, and decreased thereafter. DALYs were relatively constant geographically. CONCLUSIONS: Despite being relatively rare, bipolar disorder is a disabling illness due to its early onset, severity and chronicity. Population growth and aging are leading to an increase in the burden of bipolar disorder over time. It is important that resources be directed towards improving the coverage of evidence-based intervention strategies for bipolar disorder and establishing strategies to prevent new cases of the disorder.

Systematic review of interventions for Indigenous adults with mental and substance use disorders in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to systematically review the evidence-base for the effectiveness of culturally unadapted, culturally adapted and culture-based interventions for Indigenous adults with mental or substance use disorders. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search of scientific databases, government websites and web-based Indigenous research repositories. We sought studies using designs comparing an intervention group to a control/comparator group or pre- and post-test designs, published between 2000 and 2015 examining interventions to improve individual-level outcomes (e.g. remission, symptoms, quality of life, functioning) or service-level outcomes (e.g. number of interventions delivered) for Indigenous adults with mental or substance use disorders in Australia, Canada, New Zealand or the United States. RESULTS: A total of 16 studies met inclusion criteria. Virtually all North American studies (6 US and 1 Canadian) evaluated culturally unadapted interventions, all of which were interventions for substance use. Two-thirds of Australian and New Zealand studies evaluated culturally adapted interventions and included samples with mental disorders. Of eight culturally unadapted psychological/psychosocial, pharmacological and educational intervention studies, seven reported significant improvements on at least one measure of psychological well-being, mental health problem severity, or significantly reduced alcohol or illicit drug use. Of seven culturally adapted psychological/psychosocial intervention studies, all reported significant improvement on at least one measure of symptoms of mental illness, functioning, and alcohol use. One culture-based psychological/psychosocial intervention study significantly reduced problem severity in medical and psychiatric domains. CONCLUSION: There remains inconclusive evidence regarding interventions due to a small and methodologically weak evidence-base. The literature would be enhanced by intervention replication and outcome standardisation, validating the outcome instruments used in Indigenous populations, including sample size calculations and using stronger research designs (e.g. interrupted time-series designs). Robust implementation and outcomes research is needed to further progress evidence-based practice in Indigenous mental health.

Global burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs). METHODS: For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in GBD 2010, we systematically reviewed epidemiological data and used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR, to model prevalence by age, sex, country, region, and year. We obtained disability weights from representative community surveys and an internet-based survey to calculate YLDs. We calculated premature mortality as YLLs from cause of death estimates for 1980-2010 for 20 age groups, both sexes, and 187 countries. We derived DALYs from the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We adjusted burden estimates for comorbidity and present them with 95% uncertainty intervals. FINDINGS: In 2010, mental and substance use disorders accounted for 183·9 million DALYs (95% UI 153·5 million-216·7 million), or 7·4% (6·2-8·6) of all DALYs worldwide. Such disorders accounted for 8·6 million YLLs (6·5 million-12·1 million; 0·5% [0·4-0·7] of all YLLs) and 175·3 million YLDs (144·5 million-207·8 million; 22·9% [18·6-27·2] of all YLDs). Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of YLDs worldwide. Depressive disorders accounted for 40·5% (31·7-49·2) of DALYs caused by mental and substance use disorders, with anxiety disorders accounting for 14·6% (11·2-18·4), illicit drug use disorders for 10·9% (8·9-13·2), alcohol use disorders for 9·6% (7·7-11·8), schizophrenia for 7·4% (5·0-9·8), bipolar disorder for 7·0% (4·4-10·3), pervasive developmental disorders for 4·2% (3·2-5·3), childhood behavioural disorders for 3·4% (2·2-4·7), and eating disorders for 1·2% (0·9-1·5). DALYs varied by age and sex, with the highest proportion of total DALYs occurring in people aged 10-29 years. The burden of mental and substance use disorders increased by 37·6% between 1990 and 2010, which for most disorders was driven by population growth and ageing. INTERPRETATION: Despite the apparently small contribution of YLLs--with deaths in people with mental disorders coded to the physical cause of death and suicide coded to the category of injuries under self-harm--our findings show the striking and growing challenge that these disorders pose for health systems in developed and developing regions. In view of the magnitude of their contribution, improvement in population health is only possible if countries make the prevention and treatment of mental and substance use disorders a public health priority. FUNDING: Queensland Department of Health, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre-University of New South Wales, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, University of Toronto, Technische Universität, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, and the US National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

Global burden of disease attributable to illicit drug use and dependence: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: No systematic attempts have been made to estimate the global and regional prevalence of amphetamine, cannabis, cocaine, and opioid dependence, and quantify their burden. We aimed to assess the prevalence and burden of drug dependence, as measured in years of life lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODS: We conducted systematic reviews of the epidemiology of drug dependence, and analysed results with Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) Bayesian meta-regression technique (DisMod-MR) to estimate population-level prevalence of dependence and use. GBD 2010 calculated new disability weights by use of representative community surveys and an internet-based survey. We combined estimates of dependence with disability weights to calculate prevalent YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs, and estimated YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs attributable to drug use as a risk factor for other health outcomes. FINDINGS: Illicit drug dependence directly accounted for 20·0 million DALYs (95% UI 15·3-25·4 million) in 2010, accounting for 0·8% (0·6-1·0) of global all-cause DALYs. Worldwide, more people were dependent on opioids and amphetamines than other drugs. Opioid dependence was the largest contributor to the direct burden of DALYs (9·2 million, 95% UI 7·1-11·4). The proportion of all-cause DALYs attributed to drug dependence was 20 times higher in some regions than others, with an increased proportion of burden in countries with the highest incomes. Injecting drug use as a risk factor for HIV accounted for 2·1 million DALYs (95% UI 1·1-3·6 million) and as a risk factor for hepatitis C accounted for 502,000 DALYs (286,000-891,000). Suicide as a risk of amphetamine dependence accounted for 854,000 DALYs (291,000-1,791,000), as a risk of opioid dependence for 671,000 DALYs (329,000-1,730,000), and as a risk of cocaine dependence for 324,000 DALYs (109,000-682,000). Countries with the highest rate of burden (>650 DALYs per 100,000 population) included the USA, UK, Russia, and Australia. INTERPRETATION: Illicit drug use is an important contributor to the global burden of disease. Efficient strategies to reduce disease burden of opioid dependence and injecting drug use, such as delivery of opioid substitution treatment and needle and syringe programmes, are needed to reduce this burden at a population scale. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of conduct disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in 2010.

OBJECTIVE: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) is the first to include conduct disorder (CD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) for burden quantification. METHOD: A previous systematic review pooled the available epidemiological data for CD and ADHD, and predicted prevalence by country, region, age and sex for each disorder. Prevalence was then multiplied by a disability weight to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). As no evidence of deaths resulting directly from either CD or ADHD was found, no years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated. Therefore, the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) was equal to that of YLDs. RESULTS: Globally, CD was responsible for 5.75 million YLDs/DALYs with ADHD responsible for a further 491,500. Collectively, CD and ADHD accounted for 0.80% of total global YLDs and 0.25% of total global DALYs. In terms of global DALYs, CD was the 72nd leading contributor and among the 15 leading causes in children aged 5-19 years. Between 1990 and 2010, global DALYs attributable to CD and ADHD remained stable after accounting for population growth and ageing. CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of CD and ADHD is significant, particularly in male children. Appropriate allocation of resources to address the high morbidity associated with CD and ADHD is necessary to reduce global burden. However, burden estimation was limited by data lacking for all four epidemiological parameters and by methodological challenges in quantifying disability. Future studies need to address these limitations in order to increase the accuracy of burden quantification.

Challenging the myth of an "epidemic" of common mental disorders: trends in the global prevalence of anxiety and depression between 1990 and 2010.

BACKGROUND: Anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder (MDD) are common and disabling mental disorders. This paper aims to test the hypothesis that common mental disorders have become more prevalent over the past two decades. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of prevalence, remission, duration, and excess mortality studies for anxiety disorders and MDD and then used a Bayesian meta-regression approach to estimate point prevalence for 1990, 2005, and 2010. We also conducted a post-hoc search for studies that used the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) as a measure of psychological distress and tested for trends to present a qualitative comparison of study findings RESULTS: This study found no evidence for an increased prevalence of anxiety disorders or MDD. While the crude number of cases increased by 36%, this was explained by population growth and changing age structures. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders was estimated at 3.8% (3.6-4.1%) in 1990 and 4.0% (3.7-4.2%) in 2010. The prevalence of MDD was unchanged at 4.4% in 1990 (4.2-4.7%) and 2010 (4.1-4.7%). However, 8 of the 11 GHQ studies found a significant increase in psychological distress over time. CONCLUSIONS: The perceived "epidemic" of common mental disorders is most likely explained by the increasing numbers of affected patients driven by increasing population sizes. Additional factors that may explain this perception include the higher rates of psychological distress as measured using symptom checklists, greater public awareness, and the use of terms such as anxiety and depression in a context where they do not represent clinical disorders.

Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year: findings from the global burden of disease study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Depressive disorders were a leading cause of burden in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990 and 2000 studies. Here, we analyze the burden of depressive disorders in GBD 2010 and present severity proportions, burden by country, region, age, sex, and year, as well as burden of depressive disorders as a risk factor for suicide and ischemic heart disease. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Burden was calculated for major depressive disorder (MDD) and dysthymia. A systematic review of epidemiological data was conducted. The data were pooled using a Bayesian meta-regression. Disability weights from population survey data quantified the severity of health loss from depressive disorders. These weights were used to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Separate DALYs were estimated for suicide and ischemic heart disease attributable to depressive disorders. Depressive disorders were the second leading cause of YLDs in 2010. MDD accounted for 8.2% (5.9%-10.8%) of global YLDs and dysthymia for 1.4% (0.9%-2.0%). Depressive disorders were a leading cause of DALYs even though no mortality was attributed to them as the underlying cause. MDD accounted for 2.5% (1.9%-3.2%) of global DALYs and dysthymia for 0.5% (0.3%-0.6%). There was more regional variation in burden for MDD than for dysthymia; with higher estimates in females, and adults of working age. Whilst burden increased by 37.5% between 1990 and 2010, this was due to population growth and ageing. MDD explained 16 million suicide DALYs and almost 4 million ischemic heart disease DALYs. This attributable burden would increase the overall burden of depressive disorders from 3.0% (2.2%-3.8%) to 3.8% (3.0%-4.7%) of global DALYs. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2010 identified depressive disorders as a leading cause of burden. MDD was also a contributor of burden allocated to suicide and ischemic heart disease. These findings emphasize the importance of including depressive disorders as a public-health priority and implementing cost-effective interventions to reduce its burden. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Epidemiological modelling of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and conduct disorder for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: The most recent Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2010) is the first to include attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct disorder (CD) for burden quantification. We present the epidemiological profiles of ADHD and CD across three time periods for 21 world regions. METHODS: A systematic review of global epidemiology was conducted for each disorder (based on a literature search of the Medline, PsycInfo and EMBASE databases). A Bayesian metaregression tool was used to derive prevalence estimates by age and sex in three time periods (1990, 2005 and 2010) for 21 world regions including those with little or no data. Prior expert knowledge and covariates were applied to each model to adjust suboptimal data. Final prevalence output for ADHD were adjusted to reflect an equivalent value if studies had measured point prevalence using multiple informants while final prevalence output for CD were adjusted to reflect a value equivalent to CD only. RESULTS: Prevalence was pooled for males and females aged 5-19 years with no difference found in global prevalence between the three time periods. Male prevalence of ADHD in 2010 was 2.2% (2.0-2.3) while female prevalence was 0.7% (0.6-0.7). Male prevalence of CD in 2010 was 3.6% (3.3-4.0) while female prevalence was 1.5% (1.4-1.7). ADHD and CD were estimated to be present worldwide with ADHD prevalence showing some regional variation while CD prevalence remained relatively consistent worldwide. CONCLUSIONS: We present the first prevalence estimates of both ADHD and CD globally and for all world regions. Data were sparse with large parts of the world having no estimates of either disorder. Epidemiological studies are urgently needed in certain parts of the world. Our findings directly informed burden quantification for GBD 2010. As mental disorders gained increased recognition after the first GBD study in 1990, the inclusion of ADHD and CD in GBD 2010 ensures their importance will be recognized alongside other childhood disorders.

Grading disorder severity and averted burden by access to treatment within the GBD framework: a case study with anxiety disorders.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) estimates burden by cause with major relevance for resource allocators globally. Non-fatal burden estimates are influenced by disorder severity. However, for many disorders, global severity is sourced from a single high-income country survey. We aimed to estimate severity distributions that vary by Healthcare Access Quality Index (HAQI) using anxiety disorders as a case study and present the usefulness of this method in simulating averted and avoidable burden globally. METHODS: In this case study, we estimated treatment use among respondents with anxiety disorder in the 1997 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing (NSMHWB), the source used to estimate severity of anxiety disorders in GBD. Treatment effects were sourced from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and pooled via network meta-analysis. Severity distribution was established via a meta-regression of their disability weights, derived from 12-item short form survey scores. We simulated the shift in severity across scenarios without access to treatment and with full access to optimal treatment (cognitive behavioural therapy and antidepressants). We interpolated this shift linearly along the HAQI, extrapolated country-specific severity from HAQI scores, and calculated averted and avoidable burden. FINDINGS: The database review sourced 56 reviews, of which eight were eligible for inclusion. These eight reviews reported on 156 randomised controlled trials, with 194 treatment effects. Respondents to the 1997 NSMHWB consisted of 5936 women (55·8%) and 4705 (44·2%) men aged 18 years or older (mean age and ethnicity data not available). The survey-weighted treatment effect size was -0·28 (95% uncertainty interval -0·45 to -0·12). The pooled treatment effect for full coverage optimal treatment was -1·07 (-1·47 to -0·64). The sequela-weighted disability weight among people with anxiety disorder in the NSMHWB was 0·141 (0·042 to 0·275). The estimated disability weight was 0·188 (0·070 to 0·341) after removing the benefits of treatment and 0·056 (0·013 to 0·140) after providing all people with anxiety disorder access to optimal treatment. Globally, 12·5% (4·6 to 21·5) of anxiety disorder burden was averted because of available treatment. However, 71·1% (46·2 to 87·6) of global anxiety disorder burden could be averted if all people with anxiety disorders had access to optimal treatment. INTERPRETATION: Because it is based on guidance from a single survey done in one high-income country, the burden of anxiety disorders in low-income and middle-income countries is probably underestimated by GBD. Despite the availability of effective treatments, low use of these treatments means that most burden is still avoidable. Most of the burden could be averted if all people with anxiety disorders had access to optimal treatment, highlighting the importance of public promotion and referral pathways of treatment for anxiety disorders. Location-specific severity distributions in GBD would greatly increase precision in burden estimates and highlight avertable burden to clinicians, public health practitioners, and policy makers. FUNDING: Queensland Health and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder within the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study.

A comprehensive revision of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is expected to be completed in 2012. This study utilizes a broad range of improved methods for assessing burden, including closer attention to empirically derived estimates of disability. The aim of this paper is to describe how GBD health states were derived for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These will be used in deriving health state-specific disability estimates. A literature review was first conducted to settle on a parsimonious set of health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. A second review was conducted to investigate the proportion of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder cases experiencing these health states. These were pooled using a quality-effects model to estimate the overall proportion of cases in each state. The two schizophrenia health states were acute (predominantly positive symptoms) and residual (predominantly negative symptoms). The three bipolar disorder health states were depressive, manic, and residual. Based on estimates from six studies, 63% (38%-82%) of schizophrenia cases were in an acute state and 37% (18%-62%) were in a residual state. Another six studies were identified from which 23% (10%-39%) of bipolar disorder cases were in a manic state, 27% (11%-47%) were in a depressive state, and 50% (30%-70%) were in a residual state. This literature review revealed salient gaps in the literature that need to be addressed in future research. The pooled estimates are indicative only and more data are required to generate more definitive estimates. That said, rather than deriving burden estimates that fail to capture the changes in disability within schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, the derived proportions and their wide uncertainty intervals will be used in deriving disability estimates.

Excess mortality in severe mental disorders: A systematic review and meta-regression.

The excess mortality observed in people with severe mental disorders (SMD) has not improved over time and is not captured in estimates of disease burden. This study aimed to improve upon previous analytic approaches to account for potential sources of heterogeneity in pooled mortality estimates. A systematic review of studies examining excess mortality in people with psychotic disorders and bipolar disorder was conducted. PubMed, EMBASE and PsycINFO were searched from January 1, 1980 to 31/12/20. Studies were eligible if they were longitudinal; the study population was diagnosed according to established criteria, not restricted to subgroups and the disorder was primary and not acute or transient; and mortality was reported in comparison to the general population or a control group without SMD. Meta-regression models were used to calculate pooled relative risks (RRs) of all-cause and cause-specific mortality adjusted for study- and population-level covariates. Risk of bias was assessed using an adaptation of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. A total of 76 studies were included in the analyses. Covariates incorporated into the final models included age, sex, population type and mid-year. The adjusted RR for all-cause mortality in schizophrenia was 2.89 (95% CI 2.50 to 3.34) and 2.51 (95%CI 2.10 to 3.00) for bipolar disorder. There were larger RRs for broader categories of psychotic disorders. Mortality was elevated in each cause of death examined. Most of the heterogeneity between studies could not be accounted for. Future research should investigate underlying causal pathways and find ways to incorporate the excess mortality associated with SMD into global health estimates.

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk.

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

The hidden burden of eating disorders: an extension of estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa are the only eating disorders included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, yet binge-eating disorder and other specified feeding or eating disorder (OSFED) are more prevalent. This study sought to estimate the prevalence and burden of binge-eating disorder and OSFED globally and present a case for their inclusion in GBD. METHODS: We sourced studies from the GBD 2019 anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa epidemiological databases, two systematic reviews that included studies with epidemiological estimates of binge-eating disorder and OSFED, and experts in the field. Studies, published between Jan 1, 1998, and March 1, 2019, were included if they reported non-zero prevalence of two or more eating disorders (anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge-eating disorder, or OSFED) and diagnosed cases according to DSM-IV or DSM-5. The proportions of total eating disorder cases that met diagnostic criteria for each individual eating disorder were estimated via network meta-regression and simulation using studies reporting eating disorder prevalence. The global cases unrepresented in GBD 2019 were estimated using the proportions from the simulation and the GBD 2019 eating disorder prevalence. Disability weights for binge-eating disorder and OSFED were then estimated along with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: 54 studies, of which 36 were from high-income countries, were included in the analysis. The number of global eating disorder cases in 2019 that were unrepresented in GBD 2019 was 41·9 million (95% UI 27·9-59·0), and consisted of 17·3 million (11·3-24·9) people with binge-eating disorder and 24·6 million (14·7-39·7) people with OSFED (vs 13·6 million [10·2-17·5] people with eating disorders in GBD 2019). Together, binge-eating disorder and OSFED caused 3·7 million (95% UI 2·0-6·5) DALYs globally, bringing the total eating disorder DALYs to 6·6 million (3·8-10·6) in 2019. INTERPRETATION: Binge-eating disorder and OSFED accounted for the majority of eating disorder cases and DALYs globally. These findings warrant the inclusion of binge-eating disorder and OSFED in future iterations of GBD, which will bring the burden experienced by people living with these disorders to the attention of policy makers with the means to target this burden. FUNDING: Queensland Health, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.