The impact of performance-based financing within local health systems: Evidence from Mozambique.

Most evidence on Performance Based Financing (PBF) in low-income settings has focused on services delivered by providers in targeted health administrations, with limited understanding of how effects on health and care vary within them. We evaluated the population effects of a program implemented in two provinces in Mozambique, focusing on child, maternal and HIV/AIDS care and knowledge. We used a difference-in-difference estimation strategy applied to data on mothers from the Demographic Health Surveys, linked to information on their closest health facility. The impact of PBF was limited. HIV testing during antenatal care increased, particularly for women who were wealthier, more educated, or residing in Gaza Province. Knowledge about transmission of HIV from mother-to-child, and its prevention, increased, particularly for women who were less wealthy, less educated, or residing in Nampula Province. Exploiting the roll-out by facility, we found that the effects were concentrated on less wealthy and less educated women, whose closest facility was in the referral network of a PBF facility. Results suggest that HIV testing and knowledge promotion increased in the whole district, as a strategy to boost referral for highly incentivized HIV services delivered in PBF facilities. However, demand-side constraints may prevent the use of those services.

Validation of the SF12 mental and physical health measure for the population from a low-income country in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: The Short Form Survey 12-item (SF12) mental and physical health version has been applied in several studies on populations from Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the SF12 has not been computed and validated for these populations. We address in this paper these gaps in the literature and use a health intervention example in Malawi to show the importance of our analysis for health policy. METHODS: We firstly compute the weights of the SF12 physical and mental health measure for the Malawian population using principal component analysis on a sample of 2838 adults from wave four (2006) of Malawian Longitudinal Study of Aging (MLSFH). We secondly test the construct validity of our computed and the US-population weighted SF12 measures using regression analysis and Fixed Effect estimation on waves four, seven (2012) and eight (2013) of the MLSFH. Finally, we use a Malawian cash transfer programme to exemplify the implications of using US- and Malawi-weighted SF12 mental health measures in policy evaluation. RESULTS: We find that the Malawian SF12 health measure weighted by our computed Malawian population weights is strongly associated with other mental health measures (Depression:-0.501, p = < 0.001; Anxiety:-1.755; p = < 0.001) and shows better construct validity in comparison to the US-weighted SF12 mental health component (rs = 0.675 versus rs = 0.495). None of the SF12 measures shows strong associations with other measures of physical health. The estimated average effect of the cash transfer is significant when using the Malawi-weighted SF12 mental health measure (treatment effect: 1.124; p = < 0.1), but not when using the US-weighted counterpart (treatment effect: 1.129; p > 0.1). The weightings affect the size of the impacts across mental health quantiles suggesting that the weighting scheme matters for empirical health policy analysis. CONCLUSION: Mental health shows more pronounced associations with the physical health dimension in a Low-Income Country like Malawi compared to the US. This is important for the construct validity of the SF12 health measures and has strong implications in health policy analysis. Further analysis is required for the physical health dimension of the SF12.

The effect of cash transfers on mental health - new evidence from South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Mental health and poverty are strongly interlinked. There is a gap in the literature on the effects of poverty alleviation programmes on mental health. We aim to fill this gap by studying the effect of an exogenous income shock generated by the Child Support Grant, South Africa's largest Unconditional Cash Transfer (UCT) programme, on mental health. METHODS: We use biennial data on 10,925 individuals from the National Income Dynamics Study between 2008 and 2014. We exploit the programme's eligibility criteria to estimate instrumental variable Fixed Effects models. RESULTS: We find that receiving the Child Support Grant improves adult mental health by 0.822 points (on a 0-30 scale), 4.1% of the sample mean. CONCLUSION: Our findings show that UCT programmes have strong mental health benefits for the poor adult population.

The Effects of Exercise and Relaxation on Health and Wellbeing.

Better management by individuals of their long-term conditions is promoted to improve health and reduce healthcare expenditure. However, there is limited evidence on the determinants and consequences of self-management activity. We investigate the determinants of two forms of self-management, exercise and relaxation, and their impact on the health and wellbeing of 3472 individuals with long-term health conditions over a 1-year period. We use simultaneous recursive trivariate models to estimate the effects of these two inputs on three health and wellbeing outcomes: the EuroQol five-dimensional (EQ-5D) score, self-assessed health and happiness. We reflect the opportunity cost of time and knowledge with employment status and education and find that employment reduces relaxation and education increases exercise. We find that neither exercise nor relaxation affects the EuroQol five-dimensional score, but exercise increases self-assessed health and relaxation increases happiness. Our findings show that individuals tailor their self-management activities to their economic constraints, with effects on different aspects of their utility. Interventions to encourage self-management should take account of heterogeneous effects and constraints. © 2017 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Do Wealth Shocks Affect Health? New Evidence from the Housing Boom.

We exploit large exogenous changes in housing wealth to examine the impact of wealth gains and losses on individual health. In UK household, panel data house price increases, which endow owners with greater wealth, lower the likelihood of home owners exhibiting a range of non-chronic health conditions and improve their self-assessed health with no effect on their psychological health. These effects are not transitory and persist over a 10-year period. Using a range of fixed effects models, we provide robust evidence that these results are not biased by reverse causality or omitted factors. For owners' wealth gains affect labour supply and leisure choices indicating that house price increases allow individuals to reduce intensity of work with commensurate health benefits. © 2016 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Can Payers Use Prices to Improve Quality? Evidence from English Hospitals.

In most activity-based financing systems, payers set prices reactively based on historical averages of hospital reported costs. If hospitals respond to prices, payers might set prices proactively to affect the volume of particular treatments or clinical practice. We evaluate the effects of a unique initiative in England in which the price offered to hospitals for discharging patients on the same day as a particular procedure was increased by 24%, while the price for inpatient treatment remained unchanged. Using national hospital records for 205,784 patients admitted for the incentivised procedure and 838,369 patients admitted for a range of non-incentivised procedures between 1 December 2007 and 31 March 2011, we consider whether this price change had the intended effect and/or produced unintended effects. We find that the price change led to an almost six percentage point increase in the daycase rate and an 11 percentage point increase in the planned daycase rate. Patients benefited from a lower proportion of procedures reverted to open surgery during a planned laparoscopic procedure and from a reduction in long stays. There was no evidence that readmission and death rates were affected. The results suggest that payers can set prices proactively to incentivise hospitals to improve quality.

Income and Health in Tanzania. An Instrumental Variable Approach.

There is a substantial debate over the direction of the causal relation between income and health. This is important for our understanding of the health production process and for the policy debate over improving healthcare. We instrument income with rainfall measurements by matching satellite information on timing and positioning of 21 rainfall stations to longitudinal data (1991-94) of over 4,000 individuals in 51 villages in Tanzania. A 10% increase in income reduces the number of illnesses by 0.02. We also find that a 10% increase in income implies an increase of about 0.1 vaccinations of children under six.

How has the strict lockdown during the SARS-COV-2 outbreak changed the diet of Spaniards?

Purpose: We investigate the impact of a specific macroeconomic shock that occurred as a response to the SARS-COV-2 outbreak, namely the strict lockdown imposed in Spain on the March 14, 2020. Methods: We use fortnightly purchase data relating to over 50,000 households from a supermarket chain in Catalonia from March to June in 2019 and 2020. Using a panel data approach, we analyse the impact of the lockdown on the caloric content, sugar composition, and alcohol content in beverages and food purchases bought before and after lockdown. We corrected our results to take into account the likelihood of stockpiling. Results: The lockdown is related to an increase in unhealthy beverage and food purchases. We find heterogeneous effects across groups of the sample based on cardholder characteristics. Families with children or babies and those in the upper two income quintiles had the unhealthiest changes. As the lockdown went through phases of relaxation, households made better food decisions but maintained unhealthy beverage choices. Conclusions: The very restrictive lockdown negatively impacted the characteristics of food and beverage purchases made by Spaniards. However, we are unsure whether there was substitution to restaurant and bar visits. Additional work to find out whether there were permanent changes in purchasing behaviour after lockdown ended is needed in the future.

Estimating the late-life effects of social and emotional skills in childhood using midlife mediators.

Social and emotional skills are known to affect health and non-health outcomes, but there is limited evidence on whether these skills in childhood affect late life outcomes because of a shortage of long-running datasets containing this information. We develop a three-stage procedure and use it to estimate the effect of childhood social and emotional skills on health and labour market outcomes in late-life. This procedure makes use of mediators in midlife which are shown to be predicted by childhood skills in one dataset and to predict late-life outcomes in another dataset. We use this method to combine estimates from the National Child Development Survey and the British Household Panel Survey. We find that childhood skills predict marital status, education, home ownership, income and health at age 46 years and these midlife variables predict levels of quality-adjusted life years and labour income accumulated by age 63 years. The combined estimates suggest a standard deviation increase in average Bristol Social Adjustment Guide total score at ages 7 and 11 is associated with 4.2% (standard error = 0.6%) additional quality-adjusted life years and more than 9.9% (£14,539, standard error = £2072) additional accumulated pre-tax earnings by age 63 years. Therefore, childhood interventions to increase social and emotional skills would be expected to reduce future healthcare costs and increase wealth. Our three-stage methodology can be used to predict the life-course effects of investments in childhood skills by combining results from datasets across population cohorts.

The effects of in-utero exposure to influenza on mental health and mortality risk throughout the life-course.

Studies examining the later-life health consequences of in-utero exposure to influenza have typically estimated effects on physical health conditions, with little evidence of effects on mental health outcomes or mortality. Previous studies have also relied primarily on reduced-form estimates of the effects of exposure to influenza pandemics, meaning they are unlikely to recover effects of influenza exposure at an individual-level. This paper uses inverse probability of treatment weighting and "doubly-robust" methods alongside rare mother-reported data on in-utero influenza exposure to estimate the individual-level effect of in-utero influenza exposure on mental health and mortality risk throughout childhood and adulthood. We find that in-utero exposure to influenza is associated with small reductions in mental health in mid-childhood, driven by increases in internalising symptoms, and increases in depressive symptoms in mid-life for males. There is also evidence that in-utero influenza exposure is associated with substantial increases in mortality, although these effects are primarily driven by a 75% increase in the probability of being stillborn, with limited evidence of additional survival disadvantages at later ages. The potential for mortality selection implies that estimated effects on mental health outcomes are likely to represent a lower bound.

How do consumers respond to "sin taxes"? New evidence from a tax on sugary drinks.

It is unclear what the effects of taxes on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) are on consumer behaviour and which consumers may be affected the most. We evaluate the effect of the SSB tax introduced in Catalonia (but not in the rest of Spain) in May 2017 using loyalty card data of monthly purchases by 884,843 households from May 2016 to April 2018. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach, we study the SSB tax effect on the purchased quantity of beverages and sugar. Our results suggest a reduction in purchases of taxed beverages and a small increase in purchases of untaxed beverages. Households have substituted taxed beverages with their lower sugar (untaxed) counterparts. This has led to a 2.2% overall reduction in sugar purchases from beverages. Our study implies that although sin taxes moderately change consumer behaviour, a combination of different policies would be required to tackle obesity.

Can Results-Based Financing improve health outcomes in resource poor settings? Evidence from Zimbabwe.

Result Based Financing (RBF) has been implemented in health systems across low and middle-income countries (LMICs), with the objective of improving population health. Most evaluations of RBF schemes have focused on average programme effects for incentivised services. There is limited evidence on the potential effect of RBF on health outcomes, as well as on the heterogeneous effects across socio-economic groups and time periods. This study analyses the effect of Zimbabwe's national RBF scheme on neonatal, infant and under five mortality, using Demographic and Health Survey data from 2005, 2010 and 2015. We use a difference in differences design, which exploits the staggered roll-out of the scheme across 60 districts. We examine average programme effects and perform sub-group analyses to assess differences between socio-economic groups. We find that RBF reduced under-five mortality by two percentage points overall, but that this decrease was only significant for children of mothers with above median wealth (2.7 percentage points) and education (2.1 percentage points). RBF increased institutional delivery by seven percentage points - with a statistically significant effect for poorer socio-economic groups and least educated. We also find that RBF reduced c-section rates by three percentage points. We find no detectable effect of RBF on other incentivised services. When considering programme effects over time, we find that effects were only observed during the second phase of the programme (March 2012) with the exception of c-sections, which only reduced in the longer term. Further research is needed to examine whether these findings can be generalised to other settings.

Tackling Root Causes Upstream of Unhealthy Urban Development (TRUUD): Protocol of a five-year prevention research consortium.

Poor quality urban environments substantially increase non-communicable disease. Responsibility for associated decision-making is dispersed across multiple agents and systems: fast growing urban authorities are the primary gatekeepers of new development and change in the UK, yet the driving forces are remote private sector interests supported by a political economy focused on short-termism and consumption-based growth. Economic valuation of externalities is widely thought to be fundamental, yet evidence on how to value and integrate it into urban development decision-making is limited, and it forms only a part of the decision-making landscape. Researchers must find new ways of integrating socio-environmental costs at numerous key leverage points across multiple complex systems. This mixed-methods study comprises of six highly integrated work packages. It aims to develop and test a multi-action intervention in two urban areas: one on large-scale mixed-use development, the other on major transport. The core intervention is the co-production with key stakeholders through interviews, workshops, and participatory action research, of three areas of evidence: economic valuations of changed health outcomes; community-led media on health inequalities; and routes to potential impact mapped through co-production with key decision-makers, advisors and the lay public. This will be achieved by: mapping system of actors and processes involved in each case study; developing, testing and refining the combined intervention; evaluating the extent to which policy and practice changes amongst our target users, and the likelihood of impact on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) downstream. The integration of such diverse disciplines and sectors presents multiple practical/operational issues. The programme is testing new approaches to research, notably with regards practitioner-researcher integration and transdisciplinary research co-leadership. Other critical risks relate to urban development timescales, uncertainties in upstream-downstream causality, and the demonstration of impact.

Pandemics, vulnerability, and prevention: time to fundamentally reassess how we value and communicate risk?: CITIES, HEALTH and COVID-19: Initial reflections and future challenges.

For over a decade, pandemics have been on the UK National Risk Register as both the likeliest and most severe of threats. Non-infectious 'lifestyle' diseases were already crippling our healthcare services and our economy. COVID-19 has exposed two critical vulnerabilities: firstly, the UK's failure to adequately assess and communicate the severity of non-communicable disease; secondly, the health inequalities across our society, due not least to the poor quality of our urban environments. This suggests a potentially disastrous lack of preventative action and risk management more generally, notably with regards to the existential risks from the climate and ecological crises.

The response to nutritional labels: Evidence from a quasi-experiment.

This paper evaluates a UK policy that aimed to improve dietary information provision by introducing nutrition labelling on retailers' store-brand products. Exploiting the differential timing of the introduction of Front-of-Pack nutrition labels as a quasi-experiment, our findings suggest that labelling led to a reduction in the quantity purchased of labelled store-brand foods, and an improvement in their nutritional composition. More specifically, we find that households reduced the total monthly calories from labelled store-brand foods by 588 kcal, saturated fats by 14 g, sugars by 7 g, and sodium by 0.8 mg.

Is owning your home good for your health? Evidence from exogenous variations in subsidies in England.

Home ownership is an important component of wealth and may affect health through a range of mechanisms. Using macro- and micro-level data from 2000 to 2008, we seek to estimate the causal effect of home ownership on health by exploiting the Right to Buy policy, which encouraged long-term tenants of publicly rented housing to buy their home at a large discount. At the macro-level we find that a 10 percentage-point increase in home ownership rates is associated with a 2 percentage-point reduction in the number of people reporting having a longstanding health condition. At the individual level we find that home ownership increases the General Health Questionnaire score by 1.46 points on a 37-point scale and self-assessed health by 0.19 points on a 5-point scale and reduces the number of health conditions reported by 0.65. Further analyses show that home ownership affects health via labour markets, with new job opportunities, extra time saved travelling and resources available for healthy leisure activities. These results suggest that housing policies, such as affordable housing, can be an example of non-health policies that improve health.

The effect of cash transfers on mental health: Opening the black box - A study from South Africa.

There is a gap in the literature in understanding how cash transfer programmes affect mental health. We aim to fill this gap by conceptualising and estimating the mediation effects of an unconditional cash transfer programme on mental health. We use a sample of 4,535 adults living below the South African poverty line in four waves (2008-2014) of the South African National Income Dynamics Study. We use information on individual exposure to South Africa's largest unconditional cash transfer programme, the Child Support Grant. Mental health is measured by the 10-item version of the Centre for Epidemiological Depression Scale. We use the product of the coefficient method for the mediation analysis in combination with instrumental variable estimation. We find that physical health and lifestyle factors mediate the relationship of the unconditional cash transfer programme, each explaining about eight percent and 16% of the total positive effect. Our findings show that individuals living in poverty make investment decisions that are positive for their mental health, which has strong implications for policy makers.

The worse the better? Quantile treatment effects of a conditional cash transfer programme on mental health.

Poor mental health is a pressing global health problem, with high prevalence among poor populations from low-income countries. Existing studies of conditional cash transfer (CCT) effects on mental health have found positive effects. However, there is a gap in the literature on population-wide effects of cash transfers on mental health and if and how these vary by the severity of mental illness. We use the Malawian Longitudinal Study of Family and Health containing 790 adult participants in the Malawi Incentive Programme, a year-long randomized controlled trial. We estimate average and distributional quantile treatment effects and we examine how these effects vary by gender, HIV status and usage of the cash transfer. We find that the cash transfer improves mental health on average by 0.1 of a standard deviation. The effect varies strongly along the mental health distribution, with a positive effect for individuals with worst mental health of about four times the size of the average effect. These improvements in mental health are associated with increases in consumption expenditures and expenditures related to economic productivity. Our results show that CCTs can improve adult mental health for the poor living in low-income countries, particularly those with the worst mental health.

Pay for Performance: A Reflection on How a Global Perspective Could Enhance Policy and Research.

Pay-for-performance (P4P) is the provision of financial incentives to healthcare providers based on pre-specified performance targets. P4P has been used as a policy tool to improve healthcare provision globally. However, researchers tend to cluster into those working on high or low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with still limited knowledge exchange, potentially constraining opportunities for learning from across income settings. We reflect here on some commonalities and differences in the design of P4P schemes, research questions, methods and data across income settings. We highlight how a global perspective on knowledge synthesis could lead to innovations and further knowledge advancement.

Designing and using incentives to support recruitment and retention in clinical trials: a scoping review and a checklist for design.

BACKGROUND: Recruitment and retention of participants are both critical for the success of trials, yet both remain significant problems. The use of incentives to target participants and trial staff has been proposed as one solution. The effects of incentives are complex and depend upon how they are designed, but these complexities are often overlooked. In this paper, we used a scoping review to 'map' the literature, with two aims: to develop a checklist on the design and use of incentives to support recruitment and retention in trials; and to identify key research topics for the future. METHODS: The scoping review drew on the existing economic theory of incentives and a structured review of the literature on the use of incentives in three healthcare settings: trials, pay for performance, and health behaviour change. We identified the design issues that need to be considered when introducing an incentive scheme to improve recruitment and retention in trials. We then reviewed both the theoretical and empirical evidence relating to each of these design issues. We synthesised the findings into a checklist to guide the design of interventions using incentives. RESULTS: The issues to consider when designing an incentive system were summarised into an eight-question checklist. The checklist covers: the current incentives and barriers operating in the system; who the incentive should be directed towards; what the incentive should be linked to; the form of incentive; the incentive size; the structure of the incentive system; the timing and frequency of incentive payouts; and the potential unintended consequences. We concluded the section on each design aspect by highlighting the gaps in the current evidence base. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight how complex the design of incentive systems can be, and how crucial each design choice is to overall effectiveness. The most appropriate design choice will differ according to context, and we have aimed to provide context-specific advice. Whilst all design issues warrant further research, evidence is most needed on incentives directed at recruiters, optimal incentive size, and testing of different incentive structures, particularly exploring repeat arrangements with recruiters.