Development and external validation of prediction models to predict implantable cardioverter-defibrillator efficacy in primary prevention of sudden cardiac death.

AIMS: This study was performed to develop and externally validate prediction models for appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shock and mortality to identify subgroups with insufficient benefit from ICD implantation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited patients scheduled for primary prevention ICD implantation and reduced left ventricular function. Bootstrapping-based Cox proportional hazards and Fine and Gray competing risk models with likely candidate predictors were developed for all-cause mortality and appropriate ICD shock, respectively. Between 2014 and 2018, we included 1441 consecutive patients in the development and 1450 patients in the validation cohort. During a median follow-up of 2.4 (IQR 2.1-2.8) years, 109 (7.6%) patients received appropriate ICD shock and 193 (13.4%) died in the development cohort. During a median follow-up of 2.7 (IQR 2.0-3.4) years, 105 (7.2%) received appropriate ICD shock and 223 (15.4%) died in the validation cohort. Selected predictors of appropriate ICD shock were gender, NSVT, ACE/ARB use, atrial fibrillation history, Aldosterone-antagonist use, Digoxin use, eGFR, (N)OAC use, and peripheral vascular disease. Selected predictors of all-cause mortality were age, diuretic use, sodium, NT-pro-BNP, and ACE/ARB use. C-statistic was 0.61 and 0.60 at respectively internal and external validation for appropriate ICD shock and 0.74 at both internal and external validation for mortality. CONCLUSION: Although this cohort study was specifically designed to develop prediction models, risk stratification still remains challenging and no large group with insufficient benefit of ICD implantation was found. However, the prediction models have some clinical utility as we present several scenarios where ICD implantation might be postponed.

Incidence of ventricular arrhythmias in patients with chronic total coronary occlusion: Results of the VACTOR study.

Background: A chronic total coronary occlusion (CTO) is associated with ventricular arrhythmias (VA) in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). Limited data is available on the incidence of VA in CTO patients without an ICD. Objectives: To investigate the incidence of sustained VA in CTO patients after successful CTO revascularization and in patients with untreated CTO or failed CTO revascularization. Methods: Prospective, multicenter observational pilot study including CTO patients who were not eligible for an ICD and had a left ventricular ejection fraction >35 %. We enrolled patients with a successful CTO revascularization (group A) and patients with untreated CTO or failed CTO revascularization (group B). All patients received an implantable loop recorder with remote monitoring. The primary endpoint was sustained VA. Results: Ninety patients were enrolled (mean age 63 ± 10 years, 83.3 % man, mean LVEF 55 ± 8 %). Group A (n = 45) had a higher prevalence of CTO in the left anterior descending artery in comparison to group B (n = 45) (28.9 % versus 4.4 %, P = 0.002). Other baseline characteristics were similar. During a median follow-up time of 26 months (IQR, 19-35), five patients (5.6 %) had a sustained VA. There was no difference in the incidence of sustained VA between groups (3-year cumulative event rate: 8.8 % (group A) versus 4.5 % (Group B), log-rank P = 0.71). Conclusion: Patients with an CTO, who do not qualify for an ICD, have a substantial risk of sustained VA. In our study the incidence was not different between patients with revascularized and those with untreated CTO.

Impact of a Chronic Total Coronary Occlusion on the Incidence of Appropriate Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Shocks and Mortality: A Substudy of the Dutch Outcome in ICD Therapy (DO-IT)) Registry.

BACKGROUND: Chronic total coronary occlusions (CTO) substantially increase the risk for sudden cardiac death. Among patients with chronic ischemic heart disease at risk for sudden cardiac death, an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is the favored therapy for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death. This study sought to investigate the impact of CTOs on the risk for appropriate ICD shocks and mortality within a nationwide prospective cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a subanalysis of the nationwide Dutch-Outcome in ICD Therapy (DO-IT) registry of primary prevention ICD recipients in The Netherlands between September 2014 and June 2016 (n=1442). We identified patients with chronic ischemic heart disease (n=663) and assessed available coronary angiograms for CTO presence (n=415). Patients with revascularized CTOs were excluded (n=79). The primary end point was the composite of all-cause mortality and appropriate ICD shocks. Clinical follow-up was conducted for at least 2 years. A total of 336 patients were included, with an average age of 67±9 years, and 20.5% was female (n=69). An unrevascularized CTO was identified in 110 patients (32.7%). During a median follow-up period of 27 months (interquartile range, 24-32), the primary end point occurred in 21.1% of patients with CTO (n=23) compared with 11.9% in patients without CTO (n=27; P=0.034). Corrected for baseline characteristics including left ventricular ejection fraction, and the presence of a CTO was an independent predictor for the primary end point (hazard ratio, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.03-3.22]; P=0.038). CONCLUSIONS: Within this nationwide prospective registry of primary prevention ICD recipients, the presence of an unrevascularized CTO was an independent predictor for the composite outcome of all-cause mortality and appropriate ICD shocks.

Reducing radiation exposure in second-generation cryoballoon ablation without compromising clinical outcome.

PURPOSE: Pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) using cryoballoon (CB) ablation is associated with an increased radiation exposure compared with radiofrequency ablation. Previous studies showed that radiation exposure in CB PVI can be reduced by optimizing the fluoroscopy protocol without comprising acute efficacy and safety. We evaluated the mid-term outcome of a modified fluoroscopy protocol in patients undergoing CB PVI. METHODS: The study population comprised 90 consecutive patients who underwent second-generation CB-based PVI. The first 46 patients underwent CB PVI with conventional fluoroscopy settings (group A, historic control group). In the following 44 patients (group B), a modified fluoroscopy protocol was applied consisting of (1) visualization of degree of PV occlusion only by fluoroscopy (no cine runs); (2) increased radiation awareness. Primary endpoints were the total dose area product (DAP), fluoroscopy time, and freedom from documented recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after a single procedure. RESULTS: Group B had a lower median DAP (1393 cGycm2 vs. 3232 cGycm2, P < 0.001) and median fluoroscopy time (20 min vs. 24 min, P < 0.001) as compared with group A. The 1-year freedom from documented recurrence of AF after a single procedure was similar among groups (74% in group A vs. 77% in group B, P = 0.71). There were no significant differences between both groups for the secondary endpoints, including procedure duration, proportion of patients with complete electrical isolation, and complications. CONCLUSION: Using a modified fluoroscopy protocol and increased radiation awareness, radiation exposure can be significantly reduced in CB PVI with a similar 1-year clinical outcome.

The human Cx40 promoter polymorphism -44G-->A differentially affects transcriptional regulation by Sp1 and GATA4.

Expression of the tissue-specific gap junction protein connexin(Cx)40 is regulated by the interaction of ubiquitous and tissue-specific factors such as Sp1 and GATA4. Cardiac Cx40 expression is altered under pathological conditions such as atrial fibrillation. A human promoter polymorphism, a G-->A change at position -44 that has been associated with atrial-specific arrhythmias, is located between the TBE-NKE-Sp and GATA consensus transcription factor binding sites important for the regulation of the mouse Cx40 gene. The presence of the A-allele at position -44 in promoter-reporter constructs significantly reduces promoter activity. Using electrophoretic mobility shift assays and luciferase reporter assays in various cell types, we show that Sp1 and GATA4 are important regulators of human Cx40 gene transcription and that the -44 G-->A polymorphism negatively affects the promoter regulation by the transcription factors Sp1 and GATA4.

Polymorphisms in human connexin40 gene promoter are associated with increased risk of hypertension in men.

OBJECTIVE: Gap junctions, formed by connexins (Cx), are important in the regulation of vascular tone. Previously, we reported two closely linked polymorphisms (-44G --> A and +71A --> G) within regulatory regions of the gene for Cx40, a major connexin in the vascular wall and the kidney. In the present study, we examined the hypothesis that these polymorphic variants are associated with hypertension and that they interact with blood pressure in healthy individuals. METHODS: Cx40 genotypes were determined in 191 subjects with essential hypertension, 198 normotensive individuals, and a healthy control population (178 twin pairs, 108 monozygotic, 70 dizygotic). RESULTS: We found a significant contribution of the minor Cx40 allele or genotype (-44AA/+71GG) to the risk of hypertension in men (P = 0.013 or P = 0.035; odds ratio, 1.87 or 2.10, respectively), but not in women. Moreover, in the healthy control population a significant effect of Cx40 genotype and sex on systolic blood pressure was found (P < 0.05 and P < 0.0001, respectively). Women carrying the minor Cx40 genotype had significantly higher systolic blood pressure compared with non-carriers (P < 0.05). In men, systolic blood pressure in carriers of the minor Cx40 genotype was not significantly different from the other two genotypes, possibly because of the small number of men in this group. However, men carrying the -44GA/+71AG genotype had higher standing systolic blood pressure compared with the more common Cx40 genotype (-44GG; P = 0.033). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the Cx40 polymorphisms may form a genetic susceptibility factor for essential hypertension in men.

Association of human connexin40 gene polymorphisms with atrial vulnerability as a risk factor for idiopathic atrial fibrillation.

Alterations in distribution, density, and properties of cardiac gap junctions, which mediate electrical coupling of cardiomyocytes, are considered potentially arrhythmogenic. We recently reported 2 linked polymorphisms within regulatory regions of the gene for the atrial gap junction protein connexin40 (Cx40) at nucleotides -44 (G-->A) and +71 (A-->G), which were associated with familial atrial standstill. The present study examined whether these Cx40 polymorphisms were associated with increased atrial vulnerability in vivo and arrhythmia susceptibility. In 30 subjects without structural heart disease, of whom 14 had documented sporadic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) and 16 had no AF history, inducibility of AF was assessed using an increasingly aggressive atrial stimulation protocol. Coefficient of spatial dispersion of refractoriness (CD) was calculated. CD was defined as the SD of 12 local mean fibrillatory intervals recorded at right atrial sites, expressed as a percentage of the overall mean fibrillatory interval. Cx40 genotypes were determined by direct DNA sequencing. Subjects were stratified according to normal or increased CD with a cutoff value of 3.0, because CD >3.0 was previously shown to be strongly associated with enhanced atrial vulnerability. The prevalence of the minor Cx40 allele (-44A) and -44AA genotype was significantly higher in subjects with increased dispersion (n=13) compared with those with CD < or =3.0 (n=17; P=0.00046 and P=0.025; odds ratios of 6.7 and 7.4) and a control population (n=253; P=0.00002 and P=3.90x10(-7)). Carriers of -44AA genotype had a significantly higher CD compared with those with -44GG genotype (6.37+/-1.21 versus 2.38+/-0.39, P=0.018), whereas heterozygotes had intermediate values (3.95+/-1.38, NS). All subjects with increased CD had a history of idiopathic AF compared with only 1 subject with normal CD. The -44A allele and -44AA genotype were significantly more frequent in subjects with prior AF than in those without (P=0.0019 and P=0.031; odds ratios 5.3 and 6.2). This study provides strong evidence linking Cx40 polymorphisms to enhanced atrial vulnerability and increased risk of AF. The full text of this article is available online at http://circres.ahajournals.org.

A cardiac sodium channel mutation cosegregates with a rare connexin40 genotype in familial atrial standstill.

Atrial standstill (AS) is a rare arrhythmia that occasionally appears to be genetically determined. This study investigates the genetic background of this arrhythmogenic disorder in a large family. Forty-four family members were clinically evaluated. One deceased and three living relatives were unambiguously affected by AS. All other relatives appeared unaffected. Candidate gene screening revealed a novel mutation in the cardiac sodium channel gene SCN5A (D1275N) in all three affected living relatives and in five unaffected relatives, and the deceased relative was an obligate carrier. In addition, two closely linked polymorphisms were detected within regulatory regions of the gene for the atrial-specific gap junction protein connexin40 (Cx40) at nucleotides -44 (G-->A) and +71 (A-->G). Eight relatives were homozygous for both polymorphisms, which occurred in only approximately 7% of control subjects, and three of these relatives were affected by AS. The three living AS patients exclusively coinherited both the rare Cx40 genotype and the SCN5A-D1275N mutation. SCN5A-D1275N channels showed a small depolarizing shift in activation compared with wild-type channels. Rare Cx40 genotype reporter gene analysis showed a reduction in reporter gene expression compared with the more common Cx40 genotype. In this study, familial AS was associated with the concurrence of a cardiac sodium channel mutation and rare polymorphisms in the atrial-specific Cx40 gene. We propose that, although the functional effect of each genetic change is relatively benign, the combined effect of genetic changes eventually progresses to total AS.

Cx40 polymorphism in human atrial fibrillation.

UNLABELLED: Previous studies have shown that two linked polymorphisms within regulatory regions of the gene for connexin40 (Cx40), at nucleotides -44 (G --> A) and +71 (A --> G) occur in about 7% of the general population. Cx40 is abundant in the atrium, and homozygosity for the linked polymorphisms combined with an SCN5A mutation appeared to be responsible for familial atrial standstill. We hypothesized that these polymorphisms are associated with the atrial electrophysiologic substrate favoring reentrant mechanisms for initiation of atrial fibrillation (AF). Reentry is promoted by spatial dispersion of refractoriness that can be expressed as a coefficient of dispersion (CD). METHODS: CD was calculated from the standard deviation of 12 local mean fibrillatory intervals recorded at right atrial sites during induced AF in 30 patients without structural heart disease (14 sporadic AF episodes, 16 no AF history). CD