Marine heatwaves under global warming.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months1 and can extend up to thousands of kilometres2. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems3-11 and fisheries12-14 to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences15 and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century16, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.

Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

Effects of forest loss and fragmentation on bat-ectoparasite interactions.

Human land use causes habitat loss and fragmentation, influencing host-parasite associations through changes in infestation rates, host mortality and possibly local extinction. Bat-ectoparasite interactions are an important host-parasite model possibly affected by such changes, as this system acts as both reservoirs and vectors of several pathogens that can infect different wild and domestic species. This study aimed to assess how the prevalence and abundance of bat ectoparasites respond to forest loss, fragmentation, and edge length. Bats and ectoparasites were sampled at twenty sites, forming a gradient of forest cover, in southwestern Brazil during two wet (2015 and 2016) and two dry (2016 and 2017) seasons. Effects of landscape metrics on host abundance as well as parasite prevalence and abundance were assessed through structural equation models. Nine host-parasite associations provided sufficient data for analyses, including one tick and eight flies on four bat species. Forest cover positively influenced the prevalence or abundance of three fly species, but negatively influenced one fly and the tick species. Prevalence or abundance responded positively to edge length for three fly species, and negatively for the tick. In turn, number of fragments influenced the prevalence or abundance of four fly species, two positively and two negatively. Our results support species-specific responses of ectoparasites to landscape features, and a tendency of host-generalist ticks to benefit from deforestation while most host-specialist flies are disadvantaged. Differences in host traits and abundance, along with parasite life cycles and environmental conditions, are possible explanations to our findings.

Bat flies aggregation on Artibeus planirostris hosts in the Pantanal floodplain and surrounding plateaus.

For parasites in natural systems, the most common pattern of spatial distribution is aggregation among hosts. The main causes of such aggregation are variable exposure of hosts to parasites and heterogeneity in host susceptibility. The objective of this study was to determine if there are differences in the aggregation pattern of two species of ectoparasitic flies between the Pantanal and Cerrado regions of Brazil on the bat Artibeus planirostris. We collected the ectoparasites from bats captured between 2002 and 2017 with mist nets in 21 sites in the Pantanal and 15 sites in the surrounding plateaus. The results showed that the aggregation of ectoparasitic flies in Pantanal was more pronounced than in Cerrado. The discrepancy aggregation index (D) of the bat fly Megistopoda aranea was 0.877 in Pantanal and 0.724 in Cerrado. The D values of Aspidoptera phyllostomatis was even higher, with 0.916 and 0.848 in the Pantanal and Cerrado, respectively. Differences in the shelters used may be the main factor shaping variation in aggregation, since the Pantanal does not have rock formations, with only foliage, crowns and hollow tree trunks. These differences likely affect host exposure to the parasites, leading to an increase in parasite aggregation.

ATLANTIC MAMMAL TRAITS: a data set of morphological traits of mammals in the Atlantic Forest of South America.

Measures of traits are the basis of functional biological diversity. Numerous works consider mean species-level measures of traits while ignoring individual variance within species. However, there is a large amount of variation within species and it is increasingly apparent that it is important to consider trait variation not only between species, but also within species. Mammals are an interesting group for investigating trait-based approaches because they play diverse and important ecological functions (e.g., pollination, seed dispersal, predation, grazing) that are correlated with functional traits. Here we compile a data set comprising morphological and life history information of 279 mammal species from 39,850 individuals of 388 populations ranging from -5.83 to -29.75 decimal degrees of latitude and -34.82 to -56.73 decimal degrees of longitude in the Atlantic forest of South America. We present trait information from 16,840 individuals of 181 species of non-volant mammals (Rodentia, Didelphimorphia, Carnivora, Primates, Cingulata, Artiodactyla, Pilosa, Lagomorpha, Perissodactyla) and from 23,010 individuals of 98 species of volant mammals (Chiroptera). The traits reported include body mass, age, sex, reproductive stage, as well as the geographic coordinates of sampling for all taxa. Moreover, we gathered information on forearm length for bats and body length and tail length for rodents and marsupials. No copyright restrictions are associated with the use of this data set. Please cite this data paper when the data are used in publications. We also request that researchers and teachers inform us of how they are using the data.

Ticks infesting bats (Mammalia: Chiroptera) in the Brazilian Pantanal.

Ticks associated with bats have been poorly documented in the Neotropical Zoogeographical Region. In this study, a total of 1028 bats were sampled for tick infestations in the southern portion of the Brazilian Pantanal. A total of 368 ticks, morphologically identified as Ornithodoros hasei (n = 364) and O. mimon (n = 4), were collected from the following bat species: Artibeus planirostris, Platyrrhinus lineatus, Phyllostomus hastatus, Mimon crenulatum and Noctilio albiventris. Morphological identification of O. hasei was confirmed by molecular analysis. Regarding the most abundant bat species, only 40 (6.2%) out of 650 A. planirostris were infested by O. hasei, with a mean intensity of 7.2 ticks per infested bat, or a mean abundance of 0.44 ticks per sampled bat. Noteworthy, one single P. hastatus was infested by 55 O. hasei larvae, in contrast to the 2.5-7.2 range of mean intensity values for the whole study. As a complement to the present study, a total of 8 museum bat specimens (6 Noctilio albiventris and 2 N. leporinus), collected in the northern region of Pantanal, were examined for tick infestations. These bats contained 176 ticks, which were all morphologically identified as O. hasei larvae. Mean intensity of infestation was 22, with a range of 1-46 ticks per infested bat. Our results suggest that A. planirostris might play an important role in the natural life cycle of O. hasei in the Pantanal.

Floral variation and environmental heterogeneity in a tristylous clonal aquatic of the Pantanal wetlands of Brazil.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The balance between stochastic forces and frequency-dependent mating largely governs style morph frequencies in heterostylous populations. In clonal species, deviations from equal morph ratios often result from founder events and unfavourable conditions for sexual reproduction. The aim of this study was to investigate whether different flooding regimes, because of their influence on sexual vs. clonal reproduction, are associated with regional variation in morph frequencies and floral trait differentiation in populations of the clonal, tristylous, aquatic Eichhornia azurea (Pontederiaceae) in the Pantanal wetlands of Brazil. METHODS: Style morph frequencies were sampled from 73 populations distributed across four flooding regimes differing in depth and duration. Measurements of flower size, sex-organ dimension, pollen size and pollen production were made in selected populations, and pollinator assemblages and their functional traits were recorded. KEY RESULTS: Most populations of E. azurea were tristylous (78 %), but the majority exhibited uneven morph ratios. The frequency of the mid-styled morph was significantly lower than that of the long- and short-styled morphs. Morph evenness was positively associated with population size but not with flooding regime. There were significant phenotypic differences among flooding regimes for all floral traits, including populations with reduced flower size, sex-organ length and smaller pollen. Pollinator assemblages varied with flood duration. CONCLUSIONS: The similar morph structure and evenness of populations, regardless of flooding regime, suggest that sexual reproduction and clonal dispersal are sufficiently common to prevent the signature of founder events from dominating in a region. However, the pervasive occurrence of biased morph ratios in most populations suggests that many are in a non-equilibrium state. The reduced frequency of the mid-styled morph in trimorphic and dimorphic populations may be associated with the weak self-incompatibility of this morph resulting in selfing and inbreeding depression. Clonality in E. azurea and the weak self-incompatibility of the mid-styled morph may make it more vulnerable to geitonogamous selfing.

Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes.

Extreme precipitation is projected to intensify with warming, but how this will manifest locally through time is uncertain. Here, we exploit an ensemble of convection-permitting transient simulations to examine the emerging signal in local hourly rainfall extremes over 100-years. We show rainfall events in the UK exceeding 20 mm/h that can cause flash floods are 4-times as frequent by 2070s under high emissions; in contrast, a coarser resolution regional model shows only a 2.6x increase. With every degree of regional warming, the intensity of extreme downpours increases by 5-15%. Regional records of local hourly rainfall occur 40% more often than in the absence of warming. However, these changes are not realised as a smooth trend. Instead, as a result of internal variability, extreme years with record-breaking events may be followed by multiple decades with no new local rainfall records. The tendency for extreme years to cluster poses key challenges for communities trying to adapt.

The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland.

Human-induced climate change is leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, which are severely affecting the health of the population. The exceptional heat during the summer of 2022 in Europe is an example, with record-breaking temperatures only below the infamous 2003 summer. High ambient temperatures are associated with many health outcomes, including premature mortality. However, there is limited quantitative evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic activities to the substantial heat-related mortality observed in recent times. Here we combined methods in climate epidemiology and attribution to quantify the heat-related mortality burden attributed to human-induced climate change in Switzerland during the summer of 2022. We first estimated heat-mortality association in each canton and age/sex population between 1990 and 2017 in a two-stage time-series analysis. We then calculated the mortality attributed to heat in the summer of 2022 using observed mortality, and compared it with the hypothetical heat-related burden that would have occurred in absence of human-induced climate change. This counterfactual scenario was derived by regressing the Swiss average temperature against global mean temperature in both observations and CMIP6 models. We estimate 623 deaths [95% empirical confidence interval (95% eCI): 151-1068] due to heat between June and August 2022, corresponding to 3.5% of all-cause mortality. More importantly, we find that 60% of this burden (370 deaths [95% eCI: 133-644]) could have been avoided in absence of human-induced climate change. Older women were affected the most, as well as populations in western and southern Switzerland and more urbanized areas. Our findings demonstrate that human-induced climate change was a relevant driver of the exceptional excess health burden observed in the 2022 summer in Switzerland.

Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends.

Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at a disproportionate rate in Western Europe, compared to climate model simulations. This mismatch is not well understood. Here, we show that a substantial fraction (0.8 °C [0.2°-1.4 °C] of 3.4 °C per global warming degree) of the heat extremes trend is induced by atmospheric circulation changes, through more frequent southerly flows over Western Europe. In the 170 available simulations from 32 different models that we analyzed, including 3 large model ensembles, none have a circulation-induced heat trend as large as observed. This can be due to underestimated circulation response to external forcing, or to a systematic underestimation of low-frequency variability, or both. The former implies that future projections are too conservative, the latter that we are left with deep uncertainty regarding the pace of future summer heat in Europe. This calls for caution when interpreting climate projections of heat extremes over Western Europe, in view of adaptation to heat waves.

Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality.

Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.

Seed banks on Attalea phalerata (Arecaceae) stems in the Pantanal wetland, Brazil.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Seeds can accumulate in the soil or elsewhere, such as on the stems of palms when these are covered by persistent sheaths. These sheaths could act as a safe site for some species. Here, we studied whether persistent sheaths of the palm Attalea phalerata (Arecaceae) are available sites for seed accumulation in the Pantanal wetland of Brazil. We also investigated whether the composition, richness and diversity of species of seeds in the persistent sheaths are determined by habitat (riparian forest and forest patches) and/or season (wet and dry). METHODS: All accumulated material was collected from ten persistent sheaths along the stems of 64 A. phalerata individuals (16 per habitat and 16 per season). The material was then individually inspected under a stereomicroscope to record seed species and number. KEY RESULTS: Of the 640 sheaths sampled, 65 % contained seeds (n = 3468). This seed bank included 75 species belonging to 12 families, and was primarily composed of small, endozoochoric seeds, with a few abundant species (Cecropia pachystachya and Ficus pertusa). Moraceae was the richest family (four species) and Urticaceae the most abundant (1594 seeds). Stems of A. phalerata in the riparian forest had 1·8 times more seeds and 1·3 times more species than those in forest patches. In the wet season we sampled 4·1 times more seeds and 2·2 more species on palm stems than in the dry season. Richness did not differ between habitats, but was higher in the wet season. Abundance was higher in forest patches and in the wet season. CONCLUSIONS: Attalea phalerata stems contain a rich seed bank, comparable to soil seed banks of tropical forests. As most of these seeds are not adapted to grow in flooding conditions, palm stems might be regarded as safe sites for seeds (and seedlings) to escape from the seasonal flooding of the Pantanal.

Global forestation and deforestation affect remote climate via adjusted atmosphere and ocean circulation.

Forests can store large amounts of carbon and provide essential ecosystem services. Massive tree planting is thus sometimes portrayed as a panacea to mitigate climate change and related impacts. Recent controversies about the potential benefits and drawbacks of forestation have centered on the carbon storage potential of forests and the local or global thermodynamic impacts. Here we discuss how global-scale forestation and deforestation change the Earth's energy balance, thereby affect the global atmospheric circulation and even have profound effects on the ocean circulation. We perform multicentury coupled climate model simulations in which preindustrial vegetation cover is either completely forested or deforested and carbon dioxide mixing ratio is kept constant. We show that global-scale forestation leads to a weakening and poleward shift of the Northern mid-latitude circulation, slows-down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and affects the strength of the Hadley cell, whereas deforestation leads to reversed changes. Consequently, both land surface changes substantially affect regional precipitation, temperature, clouds, and surface wind patterns across the globe. The design process of large-scale forestation projects thus needs to take into account global circulation adjustments and their influence on remote climate.

ATLANTIC POLLINATION: a data set of flowers and interaction with nectar-feeding vertebrates from the Atlantic Forest.

Flowering plant species and their nectar-feeding vertebrates exemplify some of the most remarkable biotic interactions in the Neotropics. In the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, several species of birds (especially hummingbirds), bats, and non-flying mammals, as well as one lizard feed on nectar, often act as pollinators and contribute to seed output of flowering plants. We present a dataset containing information on flowering plants visited by nectar-feeding vertebrates and sampled at 166 localities in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. This dataset provides information on 1902 unique interactions among 515 species of flowering plants and 129 species of potential vertebrate pollinators and the patterns of species diversity across latitudes. All plant-vertebrate interactions compiled were recorded through direct observations of visits, and no inferences of pollinators based on floral syndromes were included. We also provide information on the most common plant traits used to understand the interactions between flowers and nectar-feeding vertebrates: plant growth form, corolla length, rate of nectar production per hour in bagged flowers, nectar concentration, flower color and shape, time of anthesis, presence or absence of perceptible fragrance by human, and flowering phenology as well as the plant's threat status by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classification. For the vertebrates, status of threat by IUCN classification, body mass, bill or rostrum size are provided. Information on the frequency of visits and pollen deposition on the vertebrate's body is provided from the original source when available. The highest number of unique interactions is recorded for birds (1771) followed by bats (110). For plants, Bromeliaceae contains the highest number of unique interactions (606), followed by Fabaceae (242) and Gesneriaceae (104). It is evident that there was geographical bias of the studies throughout the southeast of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and that most effort was directed to flower-hummingbird interactions. However, it reflects a worldwide tendency of more plants interacting with birds compared with other vertebrate species. The lack of similar protocols among studies to collect basic data limits the comparisons among areas and generalizations. Nevertheless, this dataset represents a notable effort to organize and highlight the importance of vertebrate pollinators in this hotspot of biodiversity on Earth and represents the data currently available. No copyright or proprietary restrictions are associated with the use of this data set. Please cite this data paper when the data are used in publications or scientific events.

Bat flies on phyllostomid hosts in the Cerrado region: component community, prevalence and intensity of parasitism.

Streblidae flies are specialised parasites of bat hosts, mainly phyllostomids. There is a high richness of streblids in the savannah-like Cerrado region; however, there is little quantitative data available in parasitological indices. Here, we describe the component community, prevalence and intensity of a streblid infestation on a phyllostomid bat assemblage in Serra da Bodoquena, a Cerrado region in Southwest Brazil. We conducted surveys by capturing and inspecting bat hosts during the seven-month period between October 2004-December 2005. All the ectoparasites found on the bats were collected in the field and then counted and identified in the laboratory. We captured 327 bats belonging to 13 species, of which eight species were parasitized by 17 species of streblids. Carollia perspicillata and Glossophaga soricina were infested with seven streblid species, whereas the other bat species were infested with four or fewer streblid species. Megistopoda proxima and Aspidoptera falcata flies were found on Sturnira lilium, and Trichobius joblingi was the most prevalent fly on C. perspicillata. Megistopoda aranea and Aspidoptera phyllostomatis were highly prevalent and had a high intensity of infestation on Artibeus planirostris. Overall comparisons of the available data suggest that the component communities of streblids vary more between the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest phytogeographical regions than between localities within the same phytogeographical region.

Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability.

Climate warming is unequivocal and exceeds internal climate variability. However, estimates of the magnitude of decadal-scale variability from models and observations are uncertain, limiting determination of the fraction of warming attributable to external forcing. Here, we use statistical learning to extract a fingerprint of climate change that is robust to different model representations and magnitudes of internal variability. We find a best estimate forced warming trend of 0.8°C over the past 40 years, slightly larger than observed. It is extremely likely that at least 85% is attributable to external forcing based on the median variability across climate models. Detection remains robust even when evaluated against models with high variability and if decadal-scale variability were doubled. This work addresses a long-standing limitation in attributing warming to external forcing and opens up opportunities even in the case of large model differences in decadal-scale variability, model structural uncertainty, and limited observational records.

Wild meat consumption in tropical forests spares a significant carbon footprint from the livestock production sector.

Whether sustainable or not, wild meat consumption is a reality for millions of tropical forest dwellers. Yet estimates of spared greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from consuming wild meat, rather than protein from the livestock sector, have not been quantified. We show that a mean per capita wild meat consumption of 41.7 kg yr-1 for a population of ~ 150,000 residents at 49 Amazonian and Afrotropical forest sites can spare ~ 71 MtCO2-eq annually under a bovine beef substitution scenario, but only ~ 3 MtCO2-eq yr-1 if this demand is replaced by poultry. Wild meat offtake by these communities could generate US$3M or US$185K in carbon credit revenues under an optimistic scenario (full compliance with the Paris Agreement by 2030; based on a carbon price of US$50/tCO2-eq) and US$1M or US$77K under a conservative scenario (conservative carbon price of US$20.81/tCO2-eq), representing considerable incentives for forest conservation and potential revenues for local communities. However, the wild animal protein consumption of ~ 43% of all consumers in our sample was below the annual minimum per capita rate required to prevent human malnutrition. We argue that managing wild meat consumption can serve the interests of climate change mitigation efforts in REDD + accords through avoided GHG emissions from the livestock sector, but this requires wildlife management that can be defined as verifiably sustainable.

A Revision of Parasecia (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae) With a Description of a New Species, a New Genus and a Key to Species.

Chiggers of the genus Parasecia Loomis parasitize birds, mammals, and reptiles in the Nearctic and Neotropical regions. In the present review, we examined 18 species previously included in the genus, 15 of them being retained in the genus Parasecia, one genus is created, Nahuacarus bulbocalcarn. gen. (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae), and new combinations are proposed for two species: Lorillatum lasiurusn. comb. and Lorillatum orphanan. comb. (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae). In addition, Parasecia kansasensis (Loomis) (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae) is synonymized with Parasecia gurneyi (Ewing) (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae), Parasecia gilbetoin. sp. (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae) is described and new locality and host records are added for Parasecia chara (Wharton), Parasecia longicalcar (Brennan and Jones), Parasecia manueli (Brennan and Jones), and Parasecia thalurania (Brennan) (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae).

Volcanic-induced global monsoon drying modulated by diverse El Niño responses.

There remains large intersimulation spread in the hydrologic responses to tropical volcanic eruptions, and identifying the sources of diverse responses has important implications for assessing the side effects of solar geoengineering and improving decadal predictions. Here, we show that the intersimulation spread in the global monsoon drying response strongly relates to diverse El Niño responses to tropical eruptions. Most of the coupled climate models simulate El Niño-like equatorial eastern Pacific warming after volcanic eruptions but with different amplitudes, which drive a large spread of summer monsoon weakening and corresponding precipitation reduction. Two factors are further identified for the diverse El Niño responses. Different volcanic forcings induce systematic differences in the Maritime Continent drying and subsequent westerly winds over equatorial western Pacific, varying El Niño intensity. The internally generated warm water volume over the equatorial western Pacific in the pre-eruption month also contributes to the diverse El Niño development.