Artificial intelligence to identify harmful alcohol use after early liver transplant for alcohol-associated hepatitis.

Early liver transplantation (LT) for alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is the fastest growing indication for LT, but prediction of harmful alcohol use post-LT remains limited. Among 10 ACCELERATE-AH centers, we examined psychosocial evaluations from consecutive LT recipients for AH from 2006 to 2017. A multidisciplinary panel used content analysis to develop a maximal list of psychosocial variables. We developed an artificial intelligence model to predict post-LT harmful alcohol use. The cohort included training (N = 91 among 8 centers) and external validation (N = 25 among 2 centers) sets, with median follow-up of 4.4 (IQR 3.0-6.0) years post-LT. In the training set, AUC was 0.930 (95%CI 0.862-0.998) with positive predictive value of 0.891 (95%CI 0.620-1.000), internally validated through fivefold cross-validation. In the external validation set, AUC was 0.692 (95%CI 0.666-0.718) with positive predictive value of 0.82 (95%CI 0.625-1.000). The model identified specific variables related to social support and substance use as highly important to predict post-LT harmful alcohol use. We retrospectively developed and validated a model that identified psychosocial profiles at LT predicting harmful alcohol use post-LT for AH. This preliminary model may inform selection and post-LT management for AH and warrants prospective evaluation in larger studies among all alcohol-associated liver disease being considered for early LT.

Patterns of Alcohol Use After Early Liver Transplantation for Alcoholic Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Early liver transplantation (LT) for alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is lifesaving but concerns regarding return to harmful alcohol use remain. We sought to identify distinct patterns of alcohol use post-LT to inform pre-LT candidate selection and post-LT addiction care. METHODS: Detailed post-LT alcohol use data was gathered retrospectively from consecutive patients with severe AH at 11 ACCELERATE-AH sites from 2006-2018. Latent class analysis identified longitudinal patterns of alcohol use post-LT. Logistic and Cox regression evaluated associations between patterns of alcohol use with pre-LT variables and post-LT survival. A microsimulation model estimated the effect of selection criteria on overall outcomes. RESULTS: Of 153 LT recipients, 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival were 95%, 88% and 82%. Of 146 LT recipients surviving to home discharge, 4 distinct longitudinal patterns of post-LT alcohol use were identified: Pattern 1 [abstinent](n = 103; 71%), pattern 2 [late/non-heavy](n = 9; 6.2%), pattern 3 [early/non-heavy](n = 22; 15%), pattern 4 [early/heavy](n = 12; 8.2%). One-year survival was similar among the 4 patterns (100%), but patients with early post-LT alcohol use had lower 5-year survival (62% and 53%) compared to abstinent and late/non-heavy patterns (95% and 100%). Early alcohol use patterns were associated with younger age, multiple prior rehabilitation attempts, and overt encephalopathy. In simulation models, the pattern of post-LT alcohol use changed the average life-expectancy after early LT for AH. CONCLUSIONS: A significant majority of LT recipients for AH maintain longer-term abstinence, but there are distinct patterns of alcohol use associated with higher risk of 3- and 5-year mortality. Pre-LT characteristics are associated with post-LT alcohol use patterns and may inform candidate selection and post-LT addiction care.

American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases Expert Panel Consensus Statement: Vaccines to Prevent Coronavirus Disease 2019 Infection in Patients With Liver Disease.

The aim of this document is to provide a concise scientific review of the currently available COVID-19 vaccines and those in development, including mRNA, adenoviral vectors, and recombinant protein approaches. The anticipated use of COVID-19 vaccines in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) and liver transplant (LT) recipients is reviewed and practical guidance is provided for health care providers involved in the care of patients with liver disease and LT about vaccine prioritization and administration. The Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are associated with a 94%-95% vaccine efficacy compared to placebo against COVID-19. Local site reactions of pain and tenderness were reported in 70%-90% of clinical trial participants, and systemic reactions of fever and fatigue were reported in 40%-70% of participants, but these reactions were generally mild and self-limited and occurred more frequently in younger persons. Severe hypersensitivity reactions related to the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are rare and more commonly observed in women and persons with a history of previous drug reactions for unclear reasons. Because patients with advanced liver disease and immunosuppressed patients were excluded from the vaccine licensing trials, additional data regarding the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines are eagerly awaited in these and other subgroups. Remarkably safe and highly effective mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are now available for widespread use and should be given to all adult patients with CLD and LT recipients. The online companion document located at https://www.aasld.org/about-aasld/covid-19-resources will be updated as additional data become available regarding the safety and efficacy of other COVID-19 vaccines in development.

Modeling the Hepatology Workforce in the United States: A Predicted Critical Shortage.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Liver disease is prevalent in the United States, and as the population ages, an increasing number of patients are anticipated to present for care. The state of the current hepatology workforce and future demand for hepatology providers is not known. The aim of this study was to model future projections for hepatology workforce demand. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A workforce study of hepatology providers in the United States was completed using primary and secondary data sources. An integrated workforce framework model was used that combined socioeconomic factors that drive economic demand, epidemiological factors that drive need, and utilization rates of health care services. Supply and demand projections were calculated for adult and pediatric hepatology professionals. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to cover the feasible range of these assumptions. An electronic survey of American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) members whose practice included 50% or more hepatology was conducted. In 2018, the adult and pediatric workforce included 7,296 and 824 hepatology providers, respectively, composed of hepatologists, gastroenterologists, and advanced practice providers whose practice was ≥50% hepatology. The modeling analysis projects that in 2023, 2028, and 2033, there will be shortages of 10%, 23%, and 35% adult hepatology providers, respectively, and 19%, 20%, and 16% pediatric hepatology providers, respectively. In sensitivity analyses, a shortage of hepatology providers is predicted even under optimistic assumptions. Among the respondents to the survey, the median age was higher among gastroenterologists and general hepatologists compared with transplant hepatologists. The most common category treated by transplant hepatologists was general hepatology. CONCLUSIONS: There is an impending critical shortage of adult and pediatric hepatology providers. Strategies are needed to encourage clinicians to pursue hepatology, especially in areas outside of transplant centers.

Clinical Research in Hepatology in the COVID-19 Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Era: Challenges and the Need for Innovation.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic has drastically altered all facets of clinical care and research. Clinical research in hepatology has had a rich tradition in several domains, including the discovery and therapeutic development for diseases such as hepatitis B and C and studying the natural history of many forms of chronic liver disease. National Institutes of Health, foundation, and industry funding have provided important opportunities to advance the academic careers of young investigators while they strived to make contributions to the field. Instantaneously, however, all nonessential research activities were halted when the pandemic started, forcing those involved in clinical research to rethink their research strategy, including a shift to coronavirus disease 2019 research while endeavoring to maintain their preexisting agenda. Strategies to maintain the integrity of ongoing studies, including patient follow-up, safety assessments, and continuation of investigational products, have included a shift to telemedicine, remote safety laboratory monitoring, and shipping of investigational products to study subjects. As a revamp of research is being planned, unique issues that face the research community include maintenance of infrastructure, funding, completion of studies in the predetermined time frame, and the need to reprogram career path timelines. Real-world databases, biomarker and long-term follow up studies, and research involving special groups (children, the homeless, and other marginalized populations) are likely to face unique challenges. The implementation of telemedicine has been dramatically accelerated and will serve as a backbone for the future of clinical research. As we move forward, innovation in clinical trial design will be essential for conducting optimized clinical research.

Clinical Best Practice Advice for Hepatology and Liver Transplant Providers During the COVID-19 Pandemic: AASLD Expert Panel Consensus Statement.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the illness caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is rapidly spreading throughout the world. Hospitals and healthcare providers are preparing for the anticipated surge in critically ill patients, but few are wholly equipped to manage this new disease. The goals of this document are to provide data on what is currently known about COVID-19, and how it may impact hepatologists and liver transplant providers and their patients. Our aim is to provide a template for the development of clinical recommendations and policies to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on liver patients and healthcare providers. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This article discusses what is known about COVID-19 with a focus on its impact on hepatologists, liver transplant providers, patients with liver disease, and liver transplant recipients. We provide clinicians with guidance for how to minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their patients' care. CONCLUSIONS: The situation is evolving rapidly, and these recommendations will need to evolve as well. As we learn more about how the COVID-19 pandemic impacts the care of patients with liver disease, we will update the online document available at https://www.aasld.org/about-aasld/covid-19-and-liver.

Model to Calculate Harms and Benefits of Early vs Delayed Liver Transplantation for Patients With Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Early liver transplantation (without requiring a minimum period of sobriety) for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is controversial: many centers delay eligibility until a specific period of sobriety (such as 6 months) has been achieved. To inform ongoing debate and policy, we modeled long-term outcomes of early vs delayed liver transplantation for patients with AH. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model to simulate early vs delayed liver transplantation for patients with severe AH and different amounts of alcohol use after transplantation: abstinence, slip (alcohol use followed by sobriety), or sustained use. Mortality of patients before transplantation was determined by joint-effect model (based on Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD] and Lille scores). We estimated life expectancies of patients receiving early vs delayed transplantation (6-month wait before placement on the waitlist) and life years lost attributable to alcohol use after receiving the liver transplant. RESULTS: Patients offered early liver transplantation were estimated to have an average life expectancy of 6.55 life years, compared with an average life expectancy of 1.46 life years for patients offered delayed liver transplantation (4.49-fold increase). The net increase in life expectancy from offering early transplantation was highest for patients with Lille scores of 0.50-0.82 and MELD scores of 32 or more. Patients who were offered early transplantation and had no alcohol use afterward were predicted to survive 10.85 years compared with 3.62 years for patients with sustained alcohol use after transplantation (7.23 life years lost). Compared with delayed transplantation, early liver transplantation increased survival times in all simulated scenarios and combinations of Lille and MELD scores. CONCLUSIONS: In a modeling study of assumed carefully selected patients with AH, early vs delayed liver transplantation (6 months of abstinence from alcohol before transplantation) increased survival times of patients, regardless of estimated risk of sustained alcohol use after transplantation. These findings support early liver transplantation for patients with severe AH. The net increase in life expectancy was maintained in all simulated extreme scenarios but should be confirmed in prospective studies. Sustained alcohol use after transplantation significantly reduced but did not eliminate the benefits of early transplantation. Strategies are needed to prevent and treat posttransplantation use of alcohol.

Provider Attitudes and Practice Patterns for Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are effective against hepatitis C virus and sustained virologic response is associated with reduced incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, there is controversy over the use of DAAs in patients with active or treated HCC and uncertainty about optimal management of these patients. We aimed to characterize attitudes and practice patterns of hepatology practitioners in the United States regarding the use of DAAs in patients with HCC. METHODS: We conducted a survey of hepatology providers at 47 tertiary care centers in 25 states. Surveys were sent to 476 providers and we received 279 responses (58.6%). RESULTS: Provider beliefs about risk of HCC recurrence after DAA therapy varied: 48% responded that DAAs reduce risk, 36% responded that DAAs do not change risk, and 16% responded that DAAs increase risk of HCC recurrence. However, most providers believed DAAs to be beneficial to and reduce mortality of patients with complete response to HCC treatment. Accordingly, nearly all providers (94.9%) reported recommending DAA therapy to patients with early-stage HCC who received curative treatment. However, fewer providers recommended DAA therapy for patients with intermediate (72.9%) or advanced (57.5%) HCC undergoing palliative therapies. Timing of DAA initiation varied among providers based on HCC treatment modality: 49.1% of providers reported they would initiate DAA therapy within 3 months of surgical resection whereas 45.9% and 5.0% would delay DAA initiation for 3-12 months and >1 year post-surgery, respectively. For patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), 42.0% of providers would provide DAAs within 3 months of the procedure, 46.7% would delay DAAs until 3-12 months afterward, and 11.3% would delay DAAs more than 1 year after TACE. CONCLUSIONS: Based on a survey sent to hepatology providers, there is variation in provider attitudes and practice patterns regarding use and timing of DAAs for patients with HCC. Further studies are needed to characterize the risks and benefits of DAA therapy in this patient population.

Predicting Low Risk for Sustained Alcohol Use After Early Liver Transplant for Acute Alcoholic Hepatitis: The Sustained Alcohol Use Post-Liver Transplant Score.

Early liver transplant (LT) for alcohol-associated disease (i.e., without a specific sobriety period) is controversial but increasingly used. Using the multicenter American Consortium of Early Liver Transplantation for Alcoholic Hepatitis (ACCELERATE-AH) cohort, we aimed to develop a predictive tool to identify patients pretransplant with low risk for sustained alcohol use posttransplant to inform selection of candidates for early LT. We included consecutive ACCELERATE-AH LT recipients between 2012 and 2017. All had clinically diagnosed severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH), no prior diagnosis of liver disease or AH, and underwent LT without a specific sobriety period. Logistic and Cox regression, classification and regression trees (CARTs), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to identify variables associated with sustained alcohol use post-LT. Among 134 LT recipients for AH with median period of alcohol abstinence pre-LT of 54 days, 74% were abstinent, 16% had slips only, and 10% had sustained alcohol use after a median 1.6 (interquartile range [IQR]: 0.7-2.8) years follow-up post-LT. Four variables were associated with sustained use of alcohol post-LT, forming the Sustained Alcohol Use Post-LT (SALT) score (range: 0-11): >10 drinks per day at initial hospitalization (+4 points), multiple prior rehabilitation attempts (+4 points), prior alcohol-related legal issues (+2 points), and prior illicit substance abuse (+1 point). The C statistic was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68-0.83). A SALT score ≥5 had a 25% positive predictive value (95% CI: 10%-47%) and a SALT score of <5 had a 95% negative predictive value (95% CI: 89%-98%) for sustained alcohol use post-LT. In internal cross-validation, the average C statistic was 0.74. Conclusion: A prognostic score, the SALT score, using four objective pretransplant variables identifies candidates with AH for early LT who are at low risk for sustained alcohol use posttransplant. This tool may assist in the selection of patients with AH for early LT or in guiding risk-based interventions post-LT.

Outcomes of Early Liver Transplantation for Patients With Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The American Consortium of Early Liver Transplantation for Alcoholic Hepatitis comprises 12 centers from 8 United Network for Organ Sharing regions studying early liver transplantation (LT) (without mandated period of sobriety) for patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH). We analyzed the outcomes of these patients. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of consecutive patients with a diagnosis of severe AH and no prior diagnosis of liver disease or episodes of AH, who underwent LT before 6 months of abstinence from 2006 through 2017 at 12 centers. We collected data on baseline characteristics, psychosocial profiles, level of alcohol consumption before LT, disease course and treatment, and outcomes of LT. The interval of alcohol abstinence was defined as the time between last drink and the date of LT. The primary outcomes were survival and alcohol use after LT, defined as slip or sustained. RESULTS: Among 147 patients with AH who received liver transplants, the median duration of abstinence before LT was 55 days; 54% received corticosteroids for AH and the patients had a median Lille score of 0.82 and a median Sodium Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of 39. Cumulative patient survival percentages after LT were 94% at 1 year (95% confidence interval [CI], 89%-97%) and 84% at 3 years (95% CI, 75%-90%). Following hospital discharge after LT, 72% were abstinent, 18% had slips, and 11% had sustained alcohol use. The cumulative incidence of any alcohol use was 25% at 1 year (95% CI, 18%-34%) and 34% at 3 years (95% CI, 25%-44%) after LT. The cumulative incidence of sustained alcohol use was 10% at 1 year (95% CI, 6%-18%) and 17% at 3 years (95% CI, 10%-27%) after LT. In multivariable analysis, only younger age was associated with alcohol following LT (P = .01). Sustained alcohol use after LT was associated with increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 4.59; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective analysis of 147 patients who underwent early LT (before 6 months of abstinence) for severe AH, we found that most patients survive for 1 year (94%) and 3 years (84%), similar to patients receiving liver transplants for other indications. Sustained alcohol use after LT was infrequent but associated with increased mortality. Our findings support the selective use of LT as a treatment for severe AH. Prospective studies are needed to optimize selection criteria, management of patients after LT, and long-term outcomes.

Underestimation of Liver Transplantation for Alcoholic Hepatitis in the National Transplant Database.

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) can be coded in United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) as either alcoholic cirrhosis or alcoholic hepatitis (AH), without having specific criteria to assign either diagnosis. In this multicenter American Consortium of Early Liver Transplantation for Alcoholic Hepatitis (ACCELERATE-AH) study, we sought to assess the concordance of the clinician diagnosis of AH at liver transplantation (LT) listing versus UNOS data entry of AH as listing diagnosis. In a prior study, consecutive early LT recipients transplanted for AH between 2012 and 2017 were identified by chart review at 10 ACCELERATE-AH sites. In this current study, these same LT recipients were identified in the UNOS database. The primary UNOS diagnostic code was evaluated for concordance with the chart-review assignment of AH. In cases where the primary listing diagnosis in UNOS was not AH, we determined the reason for alternate classification. Among 124 ACCELERATE-AH LT recipients with a chart-review diagnosis of AH, only 43/124 (35%) had AH as listing diagnosis in UNOS; 80 (64%) were listed as alcoholic cirrhosis, and 1 (1%) as fulminant hepatic necrosis. Of the 81 patients missing AH as a UNOS listing diagnosis code, the reasons for alternate classification were 44 (54%) due to a lack of awareness of a separate diagnosis code for AH; 13 (16%) due to concomitant clinical diagnosis of AH and alcoholic cirrhosis in the chart; 12 (15%) due to clinical uncertainty regarding the diagnosis of AH versus acute decompensated alcoholic cirrhosis; and 12 (15%) due to a data entry error. In conclusion, in a large cohort of LT recipients with AH, only 35% were documented as such in UNOS. Increased education and awareness for those performing UNOS data entry, the establishment of specific criteria to define AH in the UNOS database, and the ability to document dates of alcohol use would allow future research on ALD to be more informative.

Epidemiologic features of a large hepatitis C cohort evaluated in a major health system in the western United States.

INTRODUCTION AND AIM: Real-world epidemiologic data to guide hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related public health initiatives are lacking. The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence and epidemiological characteristics of a large cohort of patients with an HCV diagnosis evaluated in one of the largest health systems in the United States. MATERIALS AND METHODS: De-identified demographic and clinical data were extracted from the electronic health record for patients actively followed within the Providence Health & Services health care system. Rates of HCV prevalence and co-morbid illnesses among HCV-infected patients were determined. RESULTS: Among 2,735,511 active patients, 23,492 (0.86%) were found to have evidence of HCV infection, the majority of which were Caucasian (78.2%) and born between the years 1945 and 1965 (68.3%). In comparison to Caucasians, higher rates of HCV infection were found among Native Americans (2.5% vs. 0.95%, p<0.001). Compared to HCV-negative patients, a greater proportion of HCV-positive patients had diabetes mellitus (18.7 vs. 8.9%, p<0.0001), chronic kidney disease (4.4 vs. 1.8%, p<0.0001), end-stage renal disease necessitating hemodialysis (2.6 vs. 0.6%, p<0.0001), and HIV co-infection (2.4 vs. 0.2, p<0.0001). Nearly two-thirds (62.1%) of HCV patients had government-sponsored insurance, and 93.0% of treated patients resided in urban settings. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of HCV infection in this large health care system serving the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, and California was lower than prior population-based estimates and may reflect real-world prevalence rates among patients not selected for risk-based screening. Native Americans are disproportionately affected by HCV and may warrant targeted screening.

Workforce in hepatology: Update and a critical need for more information.

The field of hepatology has experienced dramatic changes since the last workforce study in hepatology over 15 years ago. Hepatology practice has been dominated by hepatitis C but is now being overtaken by patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Expertise once attainable only through informal training, hepatology now has an accredited fellowship pathway and is recognized as a distinct discipline from gastroenterology with its own board certification. These changes that have occurred since the last workforce study in the prevalence and therapy of liver diseases and training may impact workforce needs. The time has come to conduct an updated analysis of the state of the hepatology workforce. The purpose of this article is to discuss the current issues facing training and workforce in hepatology and propose the next steps in conducting a workforce study. (Hepatology 2017;65:336-340).

Acute liver injury and acute liver failure from mushroom poisoning in North America.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Published estimates of survival associated with mushroom (amatoxin)-induced acute liver failure (ALF) and injury (ALI) with and without liver transplant (LT) are highly variable. We aimed to determine the 21-day survival associated with amatoxin-induced ALI (A-ALI) and ALF (A-ALF) and review use of targeted therapies. METHODS: Cohort study of all A-ALI/A-ALF patients enrolled in the US ALFSG registry between 01/1998 and 12/2014. RESULTS: Of the 2224 subjects in the registry, 18 (0.8%) had A-ALF (n = 13) or A-ALI (n = 5). At admission, ALF patients had higher lactate levels (5.2 vs. 2.2 mm, P = 0.06) compared to ALI patients, but INR (2.8 vs. 2.2), bilirubin (87 vs. 26 µm) and MELD scores (28 vs. 24) were similar (P > 0.2 for all). Of the 13 patients with ALF, six survived without LT (46%), five survived with LT (39%) and two died without LT (15%). Of the five patients with ALI, four (80%) recovered and one (20%) survived post-LT. Comparing those who died/received LT (non-spontaneous survivors [NSS]) with spontaneous survivors (SS), N-acetylcysteine was used in nearly all patients (NSS 88% vs. SS 80%); whereas, silibinin (25% vs. 50%), penicillin (50% vs. 25%) and nasobiliary drainage (0 vs. 10%) were used less frequently (P > 0.15 for all therapies). CONCLUSION: Patients with mushroom poisoning with ALI have favourable survival, while around half of those presenting with ALF may eventually require LT. Further study is needed to define optimal management (including the use of targeted therapies) to improve survival, particularly in the absence of LT.