Meaningful Endpoints for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) Clinical Trials: Emphasis on 'Feels, Functions, Survives'. Report of a Collaborative Discussion in a Symposium with Direct Engagement from Representatives of Patients, Investigators, the National Institutes of Health, a Patient Advocacy Organization, and a Regulatory Agency.

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) carries significant mortality and unpredictable progression, with limited therapeutic options. Designing trials with patient-meaningful endpoints, enhancing the reliability and interpretability of results, and streamlining the regulatory approval process are of critical importance to advancing clinical care in IPF. Methods: A landmark in-person symposium in June 2023 assembled 43 participants from the US and internationally, including patients with IPF, investigators, and regulatory representatives, to discuss the immediate future of IPF clinical trial endpoints. Patient advocates were central to discussions, which evaluated endpoints according to regulatory standards and the FDA's 'feels, functions, survives' criteria. Results: Three themes emerged: 1) consensus on endpoints mirroring the lived experiences of patients with IPF; 2) consideration of replacing forced vital capacity (FVC) as the primary endpoint, potentially by composite endpoints that include 'feels, functions, survives' measures or FVC as components; 3) support for simplified, user-friendly patient-reported outcomes (PROs) as either components of primary composite endpoints or key secondary endpoints, supplemented by functional tests as secondary endpoints and novel biomarkers as supportive measures (FDA Guidance for Industry (Multiple Endpoints in Clinical Trials) available at: https://www.fda.gov/media/162416/download). Conclusions: This report, detailing the proceedings of this pivotal symposium, suggests a potential turning point in designing future IPF clinical trials more attuned to outcomes meaningful to patients, and documents the collective agreement across multidisciplinary stakeholders on the importance of anchoring IPF trial endpoints on real patient experiences-namely, how they feel, function, and survive. There is considerable optimism that clinical care in IPF will progress through trials focused on patient-centric insights, ultimately guiding transformative treatment strategies to enhance patients' quality of life and survival.

Non-cross-linking advanced glycation end products affect prohormone processing.

Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are non-enzymatic post-translational modifications of amino acids and are associated with diabetic complications. One proposed pathomechanism is the impaired processing of AGE-modified proteins or peptides including prohormones. Two approaches were applied to investigate whether substrate modification with AGEs affects the processing of substrates like prohormones to the active hormones. First, we employed solid-phase peptide synthesis to generate unmodified as well as AGE-modified protease substrates. Activity of proteases towards these substrates was quantified. Second, we tested the effect of AGE-modified proinsulin on the processing to insulin. Proteases showed the expected activity towards the unmodified peptide substrates containing arginine or lysine at the C-terminal cleavage site. Indeed, modification with Nε-carboxymethyllysine (CML) or methylglyoxal-hydroimidazolone 1 (MG-H1) affected all proteases tested. Cysteine cathepsins displayed a reduction in activity by ∼50% towards CML and MG-H1 modified substrates. The specific proteases trypsin, proprotein convertases subtilisin-kexins (PCSKs) type proteases, and carboxypeptidase E (CPE) were completely inactive towards modified substrates. Proinsulin incubation with methylglyoxal at physiological concentrations for 24 h resulted in the formation of MG-modified proinsulin. The formation of insulin was reduced by up to 80% in a concentration-dependent manner. Here, we demonstrate the inhibitory effect of substrate-AGE modifications on proteases. The finding that PCSKs and CPE, which are essential for prohormone processing, are inactive towards modified substrates could point to a yet unrecognized pathomechanism resulting from AGE modification relevant for the etiopathogenesis of diabetes and the development of obesity.

SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Vaccines.

Viral variants of concern may emerge with dangerous resistance to the immunity generated by the current vaccines to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Moreover, if some variants of concern have increased transmissibility or virulence, the importance of efficient public health measures and vaccination programs will increase. The global response must be both timely and science based.

Clinical trial design, end-points, and emerging therapies in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

Clinical trials in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) have led to the approval of several effective treatments that improve symptoms, exercise capacity and clinical outcomes. In phase 3 clinical trials, primary end-points must reflect how a patient "feels, functions or survives". In a rare disease like PAH, with an ever-growing number of treatment options and numerous candidate therapies being studied, future clinical trials are now faced with challenges related to sample size requirements, efficiency and demonstration of incremental benefit on traditional end-points in patients receiving background therapy with multiple drugs. Novel clinical trial end-points, innovative trial designs and statistical approaches and new technologies may be potential solutions to tackle the challenges facing future PAH trials, but these must be acceptable to patients and regulatory bodies while preserving methodological rigour. In this World Symposium on Pulmonary Hypertension task force article, we address emerging trial end-points and designs, biomarkers and surrogate end-point validation, the concept of disease modification, challenges and opportunities to address diversity and representativeness, and the use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence in PAH clinical trials.

An introduction to the Marburg virus vaccine consortium, MARVAC.

The emergence of Marburg virus (MARV) in Guinea and Ghana triggered the assembly of the MARV vaccine "MARVAC" consortium representing leaders in the field of vaccine research and development aiming to facilitate a rapid response to this infectious disease threat. Here, we discuss current progress, challenges, and future directions for MARV vaccines.

Methods for the estimation of direct and indirect vaccination effects by combining data from individual- and cluster-randomized trials.

Both individually and cluster randomized study designs have been used for vaccine trials to assess the effects of vaccine on reducing the risk of disease or infection. The choice between individually and cluster randomized designs is often driven by the target estimand of interest (eg, direct versus total), statistical power, and, importantly, logistic feasibility. To combat emerging infectious disease threats, especially when the number of events from one single trial may not be adequate to obtain vaccine effect estimates with a desired level of precision, it may be necessary to combine information across multiple trials. In this article, we propose a model formulation to estimate the direct, indirect, total, and overall vaccine effects combining data from trials with two types of study designs: individual-randomization and cluster-randomization, based on a Cox proportional hazards model, where the hazard of infection depends on both vaccine status of the individual as well as the vaccine status of the other individuals in the same cluster. We illustrate the use of the proposed model and assess the potential efficiency gain from combining data from multiple trials, compared to using data from each individual trial alone, through two simulation studies, one of which is designed based on a cholera vaccine trial previously carried out in Matlab, Bangladesh.

Glyoxal in hyperglycaemic ischemic stroke - a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hyperglycaemia is frequent in acute ischemic stroke and denotes a bad prognosis, even in the absence of pre-existing diabetes. However, in clinical trials treatment of elevated glucose levels with insulin did not improve stroke outcome, suggesting that collateral effects rather than hyperglycaemia itself aggravate ischemic brain damage. As reactive glucose metabolites, glyoxal and methylglyoxal are candidates for mediating the deleterious effects of hyperglycaemia in acute stroke. METHODS: In 135 patients with acute stroke, we used liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to measure glyoxal, methylglyoxal and several of their glycated amino acid derivatives in serum. Results were verified in a second cohort of 61 stroke patients. The association of serum concentrations with standard stroke outcome scales (NIHSS, mRS) was tested. RESULTS: Glucose, glyoxal, methylglyoxal, and the glyoxal-derived glycated amino acid Nδ-(5-hydro-4-imidazolon-2-yl)ornithine (G-H1) were positively correlated with a bad stroke outcome at 3 months as measured by mRS90, at least in one of the two cohorts. However, the glycated amino acids Nε-carboxyethyllysine (CEL) and in one cohort pyrraline showed an inverse correlation with stroke outcome probably reflecting lower food intake in severe stroke. Patients with a poor outcome had higher serum concentrations of glyoxal and methylglyoxal. CONCLUSIONS: The glucose-derived α-dicarbonyl glyoxal and glycated amino acids arising from a reaction with glyoxal are associated with a poor outcome in ischemic stroke. Thus, lowering α-dicarbonyls or counteracting their action could be a therapeutic strategy for hyperglycaemic stroke.

Verification of sex- and age-specific reference intervals for 13 serum steroids determined by mass spectrometry: evaluation of an indirect statistical approach.

OBJECTIVES: Conventionally, reference intervals are established by direct methods, which require a well-characterized, obviously healthy study population. This elaborate approach is time consuming, costly and has rarely been applied to steroid hormones measured by mass spectrometry. In this feasibility study, we investigate whether indirect methods based on routine laboratory results can be used to verify reference intervals from external sources. METHODS: A total of 11,259 serum samples were used to quantify 13 steroid hormones by mass spectrometry. For indirect estimation of reference intervals, we applied a "modified Hoffmann approach", and verified the results with a more sophisticated statistical method (refineR). We compared our results with those of four recent studies using direct approaches. RESULTS: We evaluated a total of 81 sex- and age-specific reference intervals, for which at least 120 measurements were available. The overall agreement between indirectly and directly determined reference intervals was surprisingly good as nearly every fourth reference limit could be confirmed by narrow tolerance limits. Furthermore, lower reference limits could be provided for some low concentrated hormones by the indirect method. In cases of substantial deviations, our results matched the underlying data better than reference intervals from external studies. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows for the first time that indirect methods are a valuable tool to verify existing reference intervals for steroid hormones. A simple "modified Hoffmann approach" based on the general assumption of a normal or lognormal distribution model is sufficient for screening purposes, while the refineR algorithm may be used for a more detailed analysis.

Finding the (biomarker-defined) subgroup of patients who benefit from a novel therapy: No time for a game of hide and seek.

An important element of precision medicine is the ability to identify, for a specific therapy, those patients for whom benefits of that therapy meaningfully exceed the risks. To achieve this goal, treatment effect usually is examined across subgroups defined by a variety of factors, including demographic, clinical, or pathologic characteristics or by molecular attributes of patients or their disease. Frequently such subgroups are defined by the measurement of biomarkers. Even though such examination is necessary when pursuing this goal, the evaluation of treatment effect across a variety of subgroups is statistically fraught due to both the danger of inflated false-positive error rate from multiple testing and the inherent insensitivity to how treatment effects differ across subgroups.Pre-specification of subgroup analyses with appropriate control of false-positive (i.e. type I) error is recommended when possible. However, when subgroups are specified by biomarkers, which could be measured by different assays and might lack established interpretation criteria, such as cut-offs, it might not be possible to fully specify those subgroups at the time a new therapy is ready for definitive evaluation in a Phase 3 trial. In these situations, further refinement and evaluation of treatment effect in biomarker-defined subgroups might have to take place within the trial. A common scenario is that evidence suggests that treatment effect is a monotone function of a biomarker value, but optimal cut-offs for therapy decisions are not known. In this setting, hierarchical testing strategies are widely used, where testing is first conducted in a particular biomarker-positive subgroup and then is conducted in the expanded pool of biomarker-positive and biomarker-negative patients, with control for multiple testing. A serious limitation of this approach is the logical inconsistency of excluding the biomarker-negatives when evaluating effects in the biomarker-positives, yet allowing the biomarker-positives to drive the assessment of whether a conclusion of benefit could be extrapolated to the biomarker-negative subgroup.Examples from oncology and cardiology are described to illustrate the challenges and pitfalls. Recommendations are provided for statistically valid and logically consistent subgroup testing in these scenarios as alternatives to reliance on hierarchical testing alone, and approaches for exploratory assessment of continuous biomarkers as treatment effect modifiers are discussed.

Bringing data monitoring committee charters into the sunlight.

Clinical trials investigating novel or high risk interventions, or studying vulnerable participants, often use a data monitoring committee to oversee the progress of the trial. The data monitoring committee serves both an ethical and a scientific function, by protecting the interests of trial participants while ensuring the integrity of the trial results. A data monitoring committee charter, which typically describes the procedures by which data monitoring committees operate, contains details about the data monitoring committee's organizational structure, membership, meeting frequency, sequential monitoring guidelines, and the overall contents of data monitoring committee reports for interim review. These charters, however, are generally not reviewed by outside entities and are rarely publicly available. The result is that a key component of trial oversight remains in the dark. We recommend that ClinicalTrials.gov modify its system to allow uploading of data monitoring committee charters, as is already possible for other important study documents and that clinical trialists take advantage of this opportunity to voluntarily upload the data monitoring committee charter for trials that have one. The resulting cache of publicly available data monitoring committee charters should provide important insights for those interested in a particular trial, as well as for meta-researchers who wish to understand and potentially improve how this important component of trial oversight is actually being applied.

Reliably Assessing Duration of Protection for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines.

Decision making about vaccination and boosting schedules for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hinges on reliable methods for evaluating the longevity of vaccine protection. We show that modeling of protection as a piecewise linear function of time since vaccination for the log hazard ratio of the vaccine effect provides more reliable estimates of vaccine effectiveness at the end of an observation period and also detects plateaus in protective effectiveness more reliably than the standard method of estimating a constant vaccine effect over each time period. This approach will be useful for analyzing data pertaining to COVID-19 vaccines and other vaccines for which rapid and reliable understanding of vaccine effectiveness over time is desired.

Synthesis and Biological Evaluation of Water-Soluble Esterase-Activated CO-Releasing Molecules Targeting Mitochondria.

Due to the beneficial effects of carbon monoxide as a cell-protective and anti-inflammatory agent, CO-releasing molecules (CORMs) offer some promising potential applications in medicine. In this context, we synthesized a set of acyloxy-cyclohexadiene-Fe(CO)3 complexes, all displaying a N-methyl-pyridinium triflate moiety in the ester side chain, as mitochondria-targeting esterase-triggered CORM prodrugs. Whereas the compounds in which the acyloxy substituent is attached to the 2-position of the diene-Fe(CO)3 unit (A series) spontaneously release CO upon dissolution in phosphate buffer, which remarkably is partly suppressed in the presence of porcine liver esterase (PLE), the 1-substituted isomers (B series) show the expected PLE-induced release of CO (up to 3 equiv.). The biological activity of Mito-CORMs 2/3-B and their isophorone-derived analogs 2/3-A', which also displayed PLE-induced CO release, was assessed by using human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC). Whereas Mito-CORMs 2/3-B were not cytotoxic up to 500 µM (MTT assay), Mito-CORMs 2/3-A' caused significant toxicity at concentrations above 50 µM. The anti-inflammatory potential of both Mito-CORM variants was demonstrated by concentration-dependent down-regulation of the pro-inflammatory markers VCAM-1, ICAM-1 and CXCL1 as well as induction of HO-1 in TNFα-stimulated human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs; western blotting and qPCR). Energy phenotyping by seahorse real-time cell metabolic analysis, revealed opposing shifts of metabolic potentials in cells treated either with Mito-CORMs 2/3-B (increased mitochondrial respiration and glycolytic activity) or Mito-CORMs 2/3-A' (suppressed mitochondrial respiration and increased glycolytic activity). Thus, the Mito-CORMs represent valuable tools for the safe and targeted delivery of CO to mitochondria as a subcellular compartment to induce positive anti-inflammatory effects with only minor shifts in cellular energy metabolism. Also, due to their water solubility, these compounds provide a promising starting point for further pharmacological studies.

Diabetic neuropathy is a generalized phenomenon with impact on hand functional performance and quality of life.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Diabetic sensorimotor peripheral neuropathy is usually considered to affect predominantly the lower limbs (LL-N), whereas the impact of upper limb neuropathy (UL-N) on hand functional performance and quality of life (QoL) has not been evaluated systematically. This study aims to investigate the prevalence and characteristics of UL-N and its functional and psychosocial consequences in type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Individuals with type 2 diabetes (n = 141) and an age- and sex-matched control group (n = 73) underwent comprehensive assessment of neuropathy, hand functional performance, and psychosocial status. RESULTS: The prevalence of UL-N was 30.5% in patients with diabetes and that of LL-N was 49.6%, with 25.5% exhibiting both. Patients with diabetes showed similar sensory phenotype regarding both large and small fiber functions in hands and feet. Patients with UL-N showed reduced manual dexterity, but normal hand grip force. Additionally, there was a correlation between reduced dexterity and sensory deficits. Patients with UL-N had reduced estimates of psychosocial health including health-related QoL compared to control subjects and patients without UL-N. UL-N correlated with the severity of LL-N, but not with duration of diabetes, glycemia, age, or sex. CONCLUSIONS: This study points to a substantial prevalence of UL-N in type 2 diabetes. The sensory phenotype of patients with UL-N was similar to LL-N and was characterized by loss of sensory function. Our study demonstrated an association of UL-N with impaired manual dexterity and reduced health-related QoL. Thus, upper limb sensorimotor functions should be assessed early in patients with diabetes.

Evaluating group-sequential non-inferiority clinical trials following interim stopping: The HIV Prevention Trials Network 083 trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The HIV Prevention Trials Network 083 trial was a group-sequential non-inferiority trial designed to compare HIV incidence under a novel experimental regimen for HIV prevention, long-acting injectable cabotegravir, with an active-control regimen of daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (brand name Truvada). In March of 2020, just as the trial had completed enrollment, the COVID-19 pandemic threatened to prevent trial participants from attending study visits and obtaining study medication, motivating the study team to update the interim monitoring plan. The Data and Safety Monitoring Board subsequently stopped the trial at the first interim review due to strong early evidence of efficacy. METHODS: Here we describe some unique aspects of the trial's design, monitoring, analysis, and interpretation. We illustrate the importance of computing point estimates, confidence intervals, and p values based on the sampling distribution induced by sequential monitoring. RESULTS: Accurate analysis, decision-making and interpretation of trial results rely on pre-specification of a stopping boundary, including the scale on which the stopping rule will be implemented, the specific test statistics to be calculated, and how the boundary will be adjusted if the available information fraction at interim review is different from planned. After appropriate adjustment for the sampling distribution and overrun, the HIV Prevention Trials Network 083 trial provided strong evidence that the experimental regimen was superior to the active control. CONCLUSIONS: For the HIV Prevention Trials Network 083 trial, the difference between corrected inferential statistics and naive results was quite small-as will often be the case-nevertheless, it is appropriate to report and publish the most accurate and unbiased statistical results.

A platform trial design for preventive vaccines against Marburg virus and other emerging infectious disease threats.

BACKGROUND: The threat of a possible Marburg virus disease outbreak in Central and Western Africa is growing. While no Marburg virus vaccines are currently available for use, several candidates are in the pipeline. Building on knowledge and experiences in the designs of vaccine efficacy trials against other pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, we develop designs of randomized Phase 3 vaccine efficacy trials for Marburg virus vaccines. METHODS: A core protocol approach will be used, allowing multiple vaccine candidates to be tested against controls. The primary objective of the trial will be to evaluate the effect of each vaccine on the rate of virologically confirmed Marburg virus disease, although Marburg infection assessed via seroconversion could be the primary objective in some cases. The overall trial design will be a mixture of individually and cluster-randomized designs, with individual randomization done whenever possible. Clusters will consist of either contacts and contacts of contacts of index cases, that is, ring vaccination, or other transmission units. RESULTS: The primary efficacy endpoint will be analysed as a time-to-event outcome. A vaccine will be considered successful if its estimated efficacy is greater than 50% and has sufficient precision to rule out that true efficacy is less than 30%. This will require approximately 150 total endpoints, that is, cases of confirmed Marburg virus disease, per vaccine/comparator combination. Interim analyses will be conducted after 50 and after 100 events. Statistical analysis of the trial will be blended across the different types of designs. Under the assumption of a 6-month attack rate of 1% of the participants in the placebo arm for both the individually and cluster-randomized populations, the most likely sample size is about 20,000 participants per arm. CONCLUSION: This event-driven design takes into the account the potentially sporadic spread of Marburg virus. The proposed trial design may be applicable for other pathogens against which effective vaccines are not yet available.

The effect of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on oswestry disability index scores: a comparative cross-sectional study.

PURPOSE: Lockdown measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic restricted social interactions and travel. This retrospective, observational study was conducted to evaluate the effect of lockdown restrictions on Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) scores in patients with spinal conditions. METHODS: Prospectively collected data from the British Spine Registry were retrospectively analysed in two groups. The study group included patients' baseline pre-operative ODI scores collected during the first national lockdown in the UK between March and May 2020. The reference group included ODI scores recorded during the same period in 2019, before the pandemic. Scores were compared between groups using the Mann-Whitney U test. We also calculated modified scores that omitted responses to questions related to travel and social life. These were compared using Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank test and Bland-Altman analyses. RESULTS: The median ODI scores for the reference and lockdown groups were 49 and 45, respectively, with no significant differences in the mean ranks (p = 0.068). Comparisons of original and modified ODI scores showed different outcomes for each study group. No significant differences were observed in the lockdown group (p = 0.06). However, for the pre-COVID-19 reference group, there was a significant difference (p < 0.01). Bland-Altman analyses showed reasonable agreement between the methods for calculating ODI in both groups. CONCLUSION: We found no clinically important differences in ODI scores between the two groups. The findings suggest that the ODI is reliable during lockdown situations and can be used with confidence in the future research using both retrospective and prospective data. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level 3.

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials.

Several vaccine candidates to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have entered or will soon enter large-scale, phase 3, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. To facilitate harmonized evaluation and comparison of the efficacy of these vaccines, a general set of clinical endpoints is proposed, along with considerations to guide the selection of the primary endpoints on the basis of clinical and statistical reasoning. The plausibility that vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 could be accompanied by a shift toward more SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic is highlighted, as well as the potential implications of such a shift.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated.

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.

Neuron-specific biomarkers predict hypo- and hyperalgesia in individuals with diabetic peripheral neuropathy.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The individual risk of progression of diabetic peripheral neuropathy is difficult to predict for each individual. Mutations in proteins that are responsible for the process of myelination are known to cause neurodegeneration and display alteration in experimental models of diabetic neuropathy. In a prospective observational human pilot study, we investigated myelin-specific circulating mRNA targets, which have been identified in vitro, for their capacity in the diagnosis and prediction of diabetic neuropathy. The most promising candidate was tested against the recently established biomarker of neural damage, neurofilament light chain protein. METHODS: Schwann cells were cultured under high-glucose conditions and mRNAs of various myelin-specific genes were screened intra- and extracellularly. Ninety-two participants with type 2 diabetes and 30 control participants were enrolled and evaluated for peripheral neuropathy using neuropathy deficit scores, neuropathy symptom scores and nerve conduction studies as well as quantitative sensory testing at baseline and after 12/24 months of a follow-up period. Magnetic resonance neurography of the sciatic nerve was performed in 37 individuals. Neurofilament light chain protein and four myelin-specific mRNA transcripts derived from in vitro screenings were measured in the serum of all participants. The results were tested for associations with specific neuropathic deficits, fractional anisotropy and the progression of neuropathic deficits at baseline and after 12 and 24 months. RESULTS: In neuronal Schwann cells and human nerve sections, myelin protein zero was identified as the strongest candidate for a biomarker study. Circulating mRNA of myelin protein zero was decreased significantly in participants with diabetic neuropathy (p < 0.001), whereas neurofilament light chain protein showed increased levels in participants with diabetic neuropathy (p < 0.05). Both variables were linked to altered electrophysiology, fractional anisotropy and quantitative sensory testing. In a receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis myelin protein zero improved the diagnostic performance significantly in combination with a standard model (diabetes duration, age, BMI, HbA1c) from an AUC of 0.681 to 0.836 for the detection of diabetic peripheral neuropathy. A follow-up study revealed that increased neurofilament light chain was associated with the development of a hyperalgesic phenotype (p < 0.05), whereas decreased myelin protein zero predicted hypoalgesia (p < 0.001) and progressive loss of nerve function 24 months in advance (HR of 6.519). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This study introduces a dynamic and non-invasive assessment strategy for the underlying pathogenesis of diabetic peripheral neuropathy. The diagnosis of axonal degeneration, associated with hyperalgesia, and demyelination, linked to hypoalgesia, could benefit from the usage of neurofilament light chain protein and circulating mRNA of myelin protein zero as potential biomarkers.