Comparative meta-analysis of prognostic gene signatures for late-stage ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer is the fifth most common cause of cancer deaths in women in the United States. Numerous gene signatures of patient prognosis have been proposed, but diverse data and methods make these difficult to compare or use in a clinically meaningful way. We sought to identify successful published prognostic gene signatures through systematic validation using public data. METHODS: A systematic review identified 14 prognostic models for late-stage ovarian cancer. For each, we evaluated its 1) reimplementation as described by the original study, 2) performance for prognosis of overall survival in independent data, and 3) performance compared with random gene signatures. We compared and ranked models by validation in 10 published datasets comprising 1251 primarily high-grade, late-stage serous ovarian cancer patients. All tests of statistical significance were two-sided. RESULTS: Twelve published models had 95% confidence intervals of the C-index that did not include the null value of 0.5; eight outperformed 97.5% of signatures including the same number of randomly selected genes and trained on the same data. The four top-ranked models achieved overall validation C-indices of 0.56 to 0.60 and shared anticorrelation with expression of immune response pathways. Most models demonstrated lower accuracy in new datasets than in validation sets presented in their publication. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides definitive support for a handful of prognostic models but also confirms that these require improvement to be of clinical value. This work addresses outstanding controversies in the ovarian cancer literature and provides a reproducible framework for meta-analytic evaluation of gene signatures.

curatedOvarianData: clinically annotated data for the ovarian cancer transcriptome.

This article introduces a manually curated data collection for gene expression meta-analysis of patients with ovarian cancer and software for reproducible preparation of similar databases. This resource provides uniformly prepared microarray data for 2970 patients from 23 studies with curated and documented clinical metadata. It allows users to efficiently identify studies and patient subgroups of interest for analysis and to perform meta-analysis immediately without the challenges posed by harmonizing heterogeneous microarray technologies, study designs, expression data processing methods and clinical data formats. We confirm that the recently proposed biomarker CXCL12 is associated with patient survival, independently of stage and optimal surgical debulking, which was possible only through meta-analysis owing to insufficient sample sizes of the individual studies. The database is implemented as the curatedOvarianData Bioconductor package for the R statistical computing language, providing a comprehensive and flexible resource for clinically oriented investigation of the ovarian cancer transcriptome. The package and pipeline for producing it are available from http://bcb.dfci.harvard.edu/ovariancancer.