RESUMO
In this study, the time series of toxic phytoplankton species collected between 2004 and 2018 from the Northern Adriatic, Sibenik Bay, and Mali Ston Bay was analyzed in relation to environmental (temperature, salinity, water column stability, and river flow) and meteorological parameters (precipitation and wind). Because of the mostly non-linear relation between biotic and abiotic parameters, self-organizing maps (SOM) were used to identify these relationships. SOM analysis distinguished species of the genus Dinophysis from Gonyaulax spinifera and Lingulodinium polyedrum species, which better tolerate wind-induced disturbance. Among the Dinophysis species, Dinophysis fortii, Dinophysis tripos, and Dinophysis acuta preferred higher precipitation rate and river flow in addition to optimal temperatures. The abundances of Alexandrium species, which occurred more frequently in estuarine areas, were associated with river flow and maximum stable water column. Regardless of the ecological preferences of individual harmful algae, freshwater inflow-caused stratification is present in all clusters of environmental conditions associated with increased abundances of harmful algae in the SOM analysis. It is highly likely that stratification represents an important factor for the development and maintenance of HABs. The non-linear relationship between the NAO index and rainfall was noted, of which the most important for the development of harmful algae is the proportional correlation between the positive phase of the NAO index and higher rainfall, especially in winter and spring. Such conditions are conducive to the development of harmful algae because, with the increase in temperature accompanying the positive phase of the NAO index, increased rainfall further stimulates their growth. This can be achieved either through nutrient yields or through higher freshwater inflow that further stabilizes the water column.