Applying two approaches to detect unmeasured confounding due to time-varying variables in a self-controlled risk interval design evaluating COVID-19 vaccine safety signals, using myocarditis as a case example.

We test the robustness of the self-controlled risk interval (SCRI) design in a setting where time between doses may introduce time-varying confounding, using both negative control outcomes (NCOs) and quantitative bias analysis (QBA). All vaccinated cases identified from 5 European databases between 1 September 2020 and end of data availability were included. Exposures were doses 1-3 of the Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Janssen COVID-19 vaccines; outcomes were myocarditis and otitis externa (NCO). The SCRI used a 60-day control window and dose-specific 28-day risk windows, stratified by vaccine brand and adjusted for calendar time. The QBA included two scenarios: (i) baseline probability of the confounder was higher in the control window and (ii) vice versa. The NCO was not associated with any of the COVID-19 vaccine types or doses except Moderna dose 1 (IRR = 1.09, 95%CI 1.01-1.09). The QBA suggested even the strongest literature-reported confounder (COVID-19; RRmyocarditis = 18.3) could only explain away part of the observed effect from IRR = 3 to IRR = 1.40. The SCRI seems robust to unmeasured confounding in the COVID-19 setting, although a strong unmeasured confounder could bias the observed effect upward. Replication of our findings for other safety signals would strengthen this conclusion.

Risk of agranulocytosis with metamizole in comparison with alternative medications based on health records in Spain.

PURPOSE: We aimed to estimate the absolute (incidence) and relative (hazard ratio; HR) risk of agranulocytosis associated with metamizole in comparison with non-steroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). METHODS: A cohort study of new users of metamizole versus NSAIDs was performed with BIFAP (Pharmacoepidemiologic Research Database in Public Health Systems; Spain). Patients aged ≥ 2 years in 2005-2022 were followed up from the day after their first metamizole or NSAID dispensation till the end of the treatment period to identify patients hospitalized due to idiosyncratic agranulocytosis. Incidence rate (IR) and adjusted HR of agranulocytosis with metamizole versus NSAID were estimated assuming the onset date of agranulocytosis was the date of hospitalization sensitivity analysis or 7 days before (main analysis). In secondary analyses, we used (1) opioids-paracetamol as negative control and (2) any hospitalized neutropenia as outcome (assuming the onset was 7 days before). RESULTS: The cohorts included 444,972 new users of metamizole, 3,814,367 NSAID, and 3,129,221 opioids-paracetamol on continuous treatment during a median of 37-40 days. Overall, 26 hospitalized agranulocytosis occurred, 5 in the first week (and so removed in main analysis) and 21 thereafter. IR of agranulocytosis was 14.20 (N = 5 cases) and 8.52 (N = 3), 1.95 (N = 6) and 1.62 (N = 5), and 4.29 (N = 15) and 3.72 (N = 13)/107 person-weeks of continuous treatment using the date of hospitalization or 7 days before, respectively. Two, 0 and 2 of cases identified in both analyses had neoplasia in every cohort, respectively. HR of agranulocytosis associated with metamizole was 7.20 [95% CI: 1.92-26.99] and 4.40 [0.90-21.57] versus NSAID, and 3.31 [1.17-9.34] and 2.45 [0.68-8.83] versus opioid-paracetamol, respectively. HR of neutropenia with metamizole was 2.98 [1.57-5.65] versus NSAID. CONCLUSIONS: Agranulocytosis was very rare but more common (above 4 times more) with metamizole than other analgesics. The impact of the drug-induced agranulocytosis was less precise with metamizole than the comparators due to its lower use, which precluded to find statistical differences in main analysis. The increased risk of hospitalized neutropenias with metamizole supports the link with its severity although triggers unavailable during the follow-up (ex. cytotoxic medication) can not be discarded.

Risk of nonfatal acute myocardial infarction associated with non-steroidal antiinflammatory drugs, non-narcotic analgesics and other drugs used in osteoarthritis: a nested case-control study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to estimate the risk of nonfatal acute myocardial infarction (AMI) associated with traditional NSAIDs (tNSAIDs), non-narcotic analgesics (paracetamol and metamizole), and symptomatic slow-acting drugs in osteoarthritis (SYSADOAs) overall and in different subgroups of patients. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study using a Primary Care Database (Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria), over the study period, 2001-2007. We included patients aged 40-90 years, with nonfatal AMI and randomly selected controls matched for age, sex and calendar year. Exposure to drugs was assessed within a 30-day window before the index date. RESULTS: We did not find an association with nonfatal AMI in patients at low-intermediate background cardiovascular risk (odds ratio = 0.92; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.12), whereas there was a moderate significant association among those at high risk (1.28; 1.06-1.54) or when tNSAIDs were used for longer than 365 days (1.43; 1.12-1.82). The greatest risk occurred when these two conditions were combined (1.80; 1.26-2.58). The risk varied across individual tNSAIDs, with ibuprofen (0.95; 0.78-1.16) in the lower and aceclofenac (1.59; 1.15-2.19) in the upper part of the range. Low-dose aspirin did not modify the risk profile showed by any of the individual tNSAIDs examined. Paracetamol (0.84; 0.74-0.95), metamizole (1.06; 0.87-1.29) and SYSADOAs (0.68; 0.47-0.99) were not associated with an increased risk overall or in any subgroup of patients. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of nonfatal AMI varied with individual tNSAIDs, duration of treatment and background cardiovascular risk. Paracetamol, metamizole and SYSADOAs did not increase the risk in any of the conditions examined.

Antithrombotic Use Patterns in COVID-19 Patients from Spain: A Real-World Data Study.

Antithrombotics have been widely used to treat and prevent COVID-19-related thrombosis; however, studies on their use at population levels are limited. We aimed to describe antithrombotic use patterns during the pandemic in Spanish primary care and hospital-admitted patients with COVID-19. Methods: A real-world data study was performed. Data were obtained from BIFAP's electronic health records. We investigated the antithrombotic prescriptions made within ±14 days after diagnosis between March 2020 and February 2022, divided their use into prior and new/naive groups, and reported their post-discharge use. Results: We included 882,540 individuals (53.4% women), of whom 78,499 were hospitalized. The median age was 44.7 (IQR 39-59). Antithrombotics were prescribed in 37,183 (4.6%) primary care subjects and 42,041 (53.6%) hospital-admitted patients, of whom 7505 (20.2%) and 20,300 (48.3%), respectively, were naive users. Prior users were older and had more comorbidities than new users. Enoxaparin was the most prescribed antithrombotic in hospitals, with higher prescription rates in new than prior users (2348.2, IQR 2390-3123.1 vs. 1378, IQR 1162-1751.6 prescriptions per 10,000 cases, p = 0.002). In primary care, acetylsalicylic acid was the most used antithrombotic, with higher use rates in prior than in naïve users. Post-discharge use occurred in 6686 (15.9%) subjects (median use = 10 days, IQR 9-30). Conclusions: Our study identified a consensus on prescribing antithrombotics in COVID-19 patients, but with low use rates in hospitals.

A comparison of four self-controlled study designs in an analysis of COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis using five European databases.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to assess the possible extent of bias due to violation of a core assumption (event-dependent exposures) when using self-controlled designs to analyse the association between COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis. METHODS: We used data from five European databases (Spain: BIFAP, FISABIO VID, and SIDIAP; Italy: ARS-Tuscany; England: CPRD Aurum) converted to the ConcePTION Common Data Model. Individuals who experienced both myocarditis and were vaccinated against COVID-19 between 1 September 2020 and the end of data availability in each country were included. We compared a self-controlled risk interval study (SCRI) using a pre-vaccination control window, an SCRI using a post-vaccination control window, a standard SCCS and an extension of the SCCS designed to handle violations of the assumption of event-dependent exposures. RESULTS: We included 1,757 cases of myocarditis. For analyses of the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, to which all databases contributed information, we found results consistent with a null effect in both of the SCRI and extended SCCS, but some indication of a harmful effect in a standard SCCS. For the second dose, we found evidence of a harmful association for all study designs, with relatively similar effect sizes (SCRI pre = 1.99, 1.40 - 2.82; SCRI post 2.13, 95 %CI - 1.43, 3.18; standard SCCS 1.79, 95 %CI 1.31 - 2.44, extended SCCS 1.52, 95 %CI = 1.08 - 2.15). Adjustment for calendar time did not change these conclusions. Findings using all designs were also consistent with a harmful effect following a second dose of the Moderna vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of the known association between COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis, we have demonstrated that two forms of SCRI and two forms of SCCS led to largely comparable results, possibly because of limited violation of the assumption of event-dependent exposures.

Effectiveness of homologous/heterologous booster COVID-19 vaccination schedules against severe illness in general population and clinical subgroups in three European countries.

Using 4 data-sources (Spain, Italy, United Kingdom) data and a 1:1 matched cohort study, we aimed to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections with hospitalisations (±30 days) and death (±56 days) in general population and clinical subgroups with homologous/heterologous booster schedules (Comirnaty-BNT and Spikevax-MOD original COVID-19 vaccines) by comparison with unboosted individuals, during Delta and beginning of Omicron variants. Hazard Ratio (HR, by Cox models) and VE ([1-HR]*100) were calculated by inverse probability weights. Between December 2020-February 2022, in adults without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, we matched 5.5 million people (>1 million with immunodeficiency, 343,727 with cancer) with a booster (3rd) dose by considering doses 1 and 2 vaccine brands and calendar time, age, sex, region, and comorbidities (immunodeficiency, cancer, severe renal disease, transplant recipient, Down Syndrome). We studied booster doses of BNT and MOD administered after doses 1 and 2 with BNT, MOD, or Oxford-AstraZeneca during a median follow-up between 9 and 16 weeks. BNT or MOD showed VE ranging from 70 to 86% across data sources as heterologous 3rd doses, whereas it was 42-88% as homologous 3rd doses. Depending on the severity and available follow-up, 3rd-dose effectiveness lasted between 1 and 5 months. In people with immunodeficiency and cancer, protection across data sources was detected with both heterologous (VE = 54-83%) and homologous (VE = 49-80%) 3rd doses. Overall, both heterologous and homologous 3rd doses with BTN or MOD showed additional protection against the severe effects of SARS-CoV-2 infections for the general population and for patients at potentially high risk of severe COVID-19 (elderly, people with immunodeficiency and cancer) in comparison with two doses schemes during Delta or early Omicron periods. The early VE after vaccination may be due to less testing among vaccinated pairs and unknown confounders, deserving cautious interpretation. The VE wane over time needs further in-depth research to properly envisage when or whether a booster of those vaccines should be administered.

Impact of 2018 EU Risk Minimisation Measures and Revised Pregnancy Prevention Programme on Utilisation and Prescribing Trends of Medicinal Products Containing Valproate: An Interrupted Time Series Study.

INTRODUCTION: Due to established teratogenicity of valproates, the EU risk minimisation measures (RMMs) with a pregnancy prevention programme (PPP) for valproate were updated in March 2018. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effectiveness of the 2018 EU RMMs on valproate utilisation in five European countries/regions. METHODS: A multi-database, times series study of females of childbearing potential (12-55 years) was conducted using electronic medical records from five countries/regions (01.01.2010-31.12.2020): Denmark, Tuscany (Italy), Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK. Clinical and demographic information from each database was transformed to the ConcePTION Common Data Model, quality checks were conducted and a distributed analysis was performed using common scripts. Incident and prevalent use of valproate, proportion of discontinuers and switchers to alternative medicine, frequency of contraception coverage during valproate use, and occurrence of pregnancies during valproate exposure were estimated per month. Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to estimate the level or trend change in the outcome measures. RESULTS: We included 69,533 valproate users from 9,699,371 females of childbearing potential from the five participating centres. A significant decline in prevalent use of valproates was observed in Tuscany, Italy (mean difference post-intervention -7.7%), Spain (-11.3%), and UK (-5.9%) and a non-significant decline in the Netherlands (-3.3%), but no decline in incident use after the 2018 RMMs compared to the period before. The monthly proportion of compliant valproate prescriptions/dispensings with a contraceptive coverage was low (<25%), with an increase after the 2018 RMMs only in the Netherlands (mean difference post-intervention 12%). There was no significant increase in switching rates from valproates to alternative medicine after the 2018 intervention in any of the countries/regions. We observed a substantial number of concurrent pregnancies during valproate exposure, but with a declining rate after the 2018 RMMs in Tuscany, Italy (0.70 per 1000 valproate users pre- and 0.27 post-intervention), Spain (0.48 and 0.13), the Netherlands (0.34 and 0.00), and an increasing rate in UK (1.13 and 5.07). CONCLUSION: There was a small impact of the 2018 RMMs on valproate use in the studied European countries/regions. The substantial number of concurrent pregnancies with valproate exposure warrants a careful monitoring of implementation of the existing PPP for valproate in clinical practice in Europe, to see if there is any need for additional measures in the future.

Impact of the 2018 revised Pregnancy Prevention Programme by the European Medicines Agency on the use of oral retinoids in females of childbearing age in Denmark, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain: an interrupted time series analysis.

Background: In March 2018, the European pregnancy prevention programme for oral retinoids was updated as part of risk minimisation measures (RMM), emphasising their contraindication in pregnant women. Objective: To measure the impact of the 2018 revision of the RMMs in Europe by assessing the utilisation patterns of isotretinoin, alitretinoin and acitretin, contraceptive measures, pregnancy testing, discontinuation, and pregnancy occurrence concomitantly with a retinoid prescription. Methods: An interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to compare level and trend changes after the risk minimisation measures implementation was conducted on a cohort of females of childbearing age (12-55 years of age) from January 2010 to December 2020, derived from six electronic health data sources in four countries: Denmark, Netherlands, Spain, and Italy. Monthly utilisation figures (incidence rates [IR], prevalence rates [PR] and proportions) of oral retinoids were calculated, as well as discontinuation rates, contraception coverage, pregnancy testing, and rates of exposed pregnancies to oral retinoids, before and after the 2018 RMMs. Results: From 10,714,182 females of child-bearing age, 88,992 used an oral retinoid at any point during the study period (mean age 18.9-22.2 years old). We found non-significant level and trend changes in incidence or prevalence of retinoid use in females of child-bearing age after the 2018 RMMs. The reason of discontinuation was unknown in >95% of cases. Contraception use showed a significant increase trend in Spain; for other databases this information was limited. Pregnancy testing was hardly recorded thus was not possible to model ITS analyses. After the 2018 RMM, rates of pregnancy occurrence during retinoid use, and start of a retinoid during a pregnancy varied from 0.0 to 0.4, and from 0.2 to 0.8, respectively. Conclusion: This study shows a limited impact of the 2018 RMMs on oral retinoids utilisation patterns among females of child-bearing age in four European countries. Pregnancies still occur during retinoid use, and oral retinoids are still prescribed to pregnant women. Contraception and pregnancy testing information was limited in most databases. Regulators, policymakers, prescribers, and researchers must rethink implementation strategies to avoid any pregnancy becoming temporarily related to retinoid use.

Prescribing Patterns of Codeine and Alternative Medicines in Children in Europe.

INTRODUCTION: Concerns over serious respiratory depression in children led to two European Union (EU) referral procedures (in 2013 and 2015) to review the benefit-risk balance of codeine in this population when used for pain relief, cough or cold. Consequently, codeine should no longer be used in children aged < 12 years and restrictions were introduced for treatment in children ≥ 12 years. OBJECTIVE: This multinational collaborative study aimed to assess the effectiveness of these risk minimisation measures by evaluating changes in prescribing of codeine and alternative treatments. METHOD: Children under 12 and 12-18 years old were followed between 2010 and 2017 to analyse quarterly trends in prescribing of codeine and alternative treatments in electronic health records from France, Germany, Norway, Spain and the United Kingdom using interrupted time series analysis. RESULTS: Overall prescribing of codeine in children decreased in all five countries, reaching near zero prevalence in children under 12 years of age. This was accompanied by an increase in use of other opioid analgesics in France (from 0.15 to 0.56 prevalence per 100 person-years immediately after the first referral), Norway (from 0.0006 to 0.0013 at the end of the study), the United Kingdom (from 0.018 to 0.05 at the end of the study), and an increase in non-opioid analgesics in Norway (from 0.045 to 0.075 at the end of the study) after the referral on pain relief indication. The referral on cough/cold indication led to a decrease in use of opioid and non-opioid antitussives in children aged < 12 years in France (from 10 to 7 and 20 to 16, respectively) and had no impact in other countries. Overall prescribing trends for codeine and alternatives were similar across both age groups within each country. CONCLUSION: The decrease in use of codeine shows that healthcare professionals followed the adopted measures and switched prescribing practices for pain management in children aged < 18 years towards opioid or non-opioid analgesics depending on national clinical and reimbursement settings. Whist the magnitude of the first referral on pain differed between countries, the second referral on cough/cold had only a minimal impact on the use of codeine and antitussives.

Myocarditis and pericarditis associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccines: A population-based descriptive cohort and a nested self-controlled risk interval study using electronic health care data from four European countries.

Background: Estimates of the association between COVID-19 vaccines and myo-/pericarditis risk vary widely across studies due to scarcity of events, especially in age- and sex-stratified analyses. Methods: Population-based cohort study with nested self-controlled risk interval (SCRI) using healthcare data from five European databases. Individuals were followed from 01/01/2020 until end of data availability (31/12/2021 latest). Outcome was first myo-/pericarditis diagnosis. Exposures were first and second dose of Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Janssen COVID-19 vaccines. Baseline incidence rates (IRs), and vaccine- and dose-specific IRs and rate differences were calculated from the cohort The SCRI calculated calendar time-adjusted IR ratios (IRR), using a 60-day pre-vaccination control period and dose-specific 28-day risk windows. IRRs were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Findings: Over 35 million individuals (49·2% women, median age 39-49 years) were included, of which 57·4% received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose. Baseline incidence of myocarditis was low. Myocarditis IRRs were elevated after vaccination in those aged < 30 years, after both Pfizer vaccine doses (IRR = 3·3, 95%CI 1·2-9.4; 7·8, 95%CI 2·6-23·5, respectively) and Moderna vaccine dose 2 (IRR = 6·1, 95%CI 1·1-33·5). An effect of AstraZeneca vaccine dose 2 could not be excluded (IRR = 2·42, 95%CI 0·96-6·07). Pericarditis was not associated with vaccination. Interpretation: mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines and potentially AstraZeneca are associated with increased myocarditis risk in younger individuals, although absolute incidence remains low. More data on children (≤ 11 years) are needed.

Trazodone utilization among the elderly in Spain. A population based study.

INTRODUCTION: Trazodone was authorized for the treatment of depression in the 1970s. Several additional therapeutic uses have been proposed due to its heterogeneous mechanism. This study aims to determine the use of trazodone in the elderly in Spain. METHODS: A nationwide, longitudinal and descriptive analysis was conducted using data from patients aged >65 years with a first prescription of trazodone during the period 2002-2011. Information on dose, comorbidities and relevant co-medication was gathered from the Spanish Primary Care database BIFAP. Incidence rates of trazodone use per 10,000 person-years were calculated by sex and age. RESULTS: A total of 11,766 patients receiving a first prescription of trazodone were included. The incidence rate of trazodone use was 47.2 (95% CI: 46.33-48.04) per 10,000 person-years. An increasing trend in the use of trazodone was observed (5-fold increase in 2011 as compared to 2002). The most common therapeutic indications were: depression (21.41%), Alzheimer/dementia (20.36%), sleep disorders (16.22%), and anxiety disorder (8.91%). The median dose was 100mg/day. The use of trazodone concomitantly with interacting medicines was frequent: anti-hypertensives (53.60%), and CNS depressors (59.32%). CONCLUSIONS: Trazodone use is increasing in elderly patients, and a high proportion of use in non-approved indications was observed. Trazodone is not being used at high doses, but interacting medicines were frequent, and it may pose additional risks for elderly patients.

Allopurinol use and risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among users of allopurinol. METHODS: We carried out a population-based case-control study over the period 2001-2007 in patients aged 40-90 years. Patients who had prescriptions of allopurinol or an episode of AMI before the start date of follow-up were excluded from the main analysis. Allopurinol initiators were classified as current users if their last prescription ended in the 30-day window before the recorded date of AMI for cases and a random date for controls. The association between use of allopurinol and non-fatal AMI was measured through an OR and adjusted for confounding factors by an unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS: We identified 3171 cases of non-fatal AMI and 18 525 controls. Cases had a lower prevalence of current use of allopurinol (0.82%) than controls (1.03%), yielding to an OR of 0.52 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.83). The decreased risk was driven by men (OR in men=0.44; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.76; OR in women=0.90; 0.36 to 2.23). No difference by age was observed. The effect was only observed at higher doses (300 mg or greater OR=0.30; 0.13 to 0.72; <300 mg OR=0.67; 0.37 to 1.23) and with prolonged treatments (<31 days, OR=1.12 (0.55 to 2.29); 31-180 days, OR=0.61; 0.29 to 1.29; >180 days OR=0.21; 0.08 to 0.53; p for trend=0.001). Among those with a previous AMI, allopurinol use also showed a significant reduced risk of recurrence (OR=0.16; 0.04 to 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: The present study supports the hypothesis that allopurinol is associated with a reduced risk of non-fatal AMI, which seems to be dose-dependent and duration-dependent.