Defining the prognosis of early stage chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients.

Approximately 70% of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) patients present with early stage disease, therefore defining which patients will progress and require treatment is a major clinical challenge. Here, we present the largest study of prognostic markers ever carried out in Binet stage A patients (n = 1154) with a median follow-up of 8 years. We assessed the prognostic impact of lymphocyte doubling time (LDT), immunoglobulin gene (IGHV) mutation status, CD38 expression, ZAP-70 expression and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) cytogenetics with regards to time to first treatment (TTFT) and overall survival (OS). Univariate analysis revealed LDT as the most prognostic parameter for TTFT, with IGHV mutation status most prognostic for OS. CD38 expression, ZAP-70 expression and FISH were also prognostic variables; combinations of these markers increased prognostic power in concordant cases. Multivariate analysis revealed that only LDT, IGHV mutation status, CD38 and age at diagnosis were independent prognostic variables for TTFT and OS. Therefore, IGHV mutation status and CD38 expression have independent prognostic value in early stage CLL and should be performed as part of the routine diagnostic workup. ZAP-70 expression and FISH were not independent prognostic markers in early stage disease and can be omitted at diagnosis but FISH analysis should be undertaken at disease progression to direct treatment strategy.

Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors in CLL: clinical stage, IGVH gene mutational status, and loss or mutation of the p53 gene are independent prognostic factors.

This study evaluates the prognostic significance of genetic abnormalities (detected at or shortly after presentation), clinical stage, lymphocyte morphology, CD38 expression, and IGVH gene status in 205 patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL). Deletion of chromosome 11q23, absence of a deletion of chromosome 13q14, atypical lymphocyte morphology, and more than 30% CD38 expression are significantly associated with the presence of unmutated IGVH genes. Advanced stage, male sex, atypical morphology, more than 30% CD38 expression, trisomy 12, deletion of chromosome 11q23, loss or mutation of the p53 gene, and unmutated IGVH genes are all poor prognostic factors in a univariate analysis. However, only 98% or more homology of IGVH genes to the germline sequence, loss or mutation of the p53 gene, and clinical stage retain prognostic significance in a multivariate analysis. The median survival of patients with mutated IGVH genes, unmutated IGVH genes, and loss or mutation of the p53 gene regardless of IGVH gene status is 310, 119, and 47 months, respectively. These data should facilitate the design of new trials for the management of patients presenting with advanced disease or poor prognosis early stage disease.