Can severity of a humanitarian crisis be quantified? Assessment of the INFORM severity index.

BACKGROUND: Those responding to humanitarian crises have an ethical imperative to respond most where the need is greatest. Metrics are used to estimate the severity of a given crisis. The INFORM Severity Index, one such metric, has become widely used to guide policy makers in humanitarian response decision making. The index, however, has not undergone critical statistical review. If imprecise or incorrect, the quality of decision making for humanitarian response will be affected. This analysis asks, how precise and how well does this index reflect the severity of conditions for people affected by disaster or war? RESULTS: The INFORM Severity Index is calculated from 35 publicly available indicators, which conceptually reflect the severity of each crisis. We used 172 unique global crises from the INFORM Severity Index database that occurred January 1 to November 30, 2019 or were ongoing by this date. We applied exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to determine common factors within the dataset. We then applied a second-order confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to predict crisis severity as a latent construct. Model fit was assessed via chi-square goodness-of-fit statistic, Comparative Fit Index (CFI), Tucker-Lewis Index (TLI), and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA). The EFA models suggested a 3- or 4- factor solution, with 46 and 53% variance explained in each model, respectively. The final CFA was parsimonious, containing three factors comprised of 11 indicators, with reasonable model fit (Chi-squared = 107, with 40 degrees of freedom, CFI = 0.94, TLI = 0.92, RMSEA = 0.10). In the second-order CFA, the magnitude of standardized factor-loading on the 'societal governance' latent construct had the strongest association with the latent construct of 'crisis severity' (0.73), followed by the 'humanitarian access/safety' construct (0.56). CONCLUSIONS: A metric of crisis-severity is a critical step towards improving humanitarian response, but only when it reflects real life conditions. Our work is a first step in refining an existing framework to better quantify crisis severity.

Establishment of CDC Global Rapid Response Team to Ensure Global Health Security.

The 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa highlighted challenges faced by the global response to a large public health emergency. Consequently, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention established the Global Rapid Response Team (GRRT) to strengthen emergency response capacity to global health threats, thereby ensuring global health security. Dedicated GRRT staff can be rapidly mobilized for extended missions, improving partner coordination and the continuity of response operations. A large, agencywide roster of surge staff enables rapid mobilization of qualified responders with wide-ranging experience and expertise. Team members are offered emergency response training, technical training, foreign language training, and responder readiness support. Recent response missions illustrate the breadth of support the team provides. GRRT serves as a model for other countries and is committed to strengthening emergency response capacity to respond to outbreaks and emergencies worldwide, thereby enhancing global health security.

Maternal mortality in Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic: time series and social inequities.

OBJECTIVE: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic goes beyond morbidity and mortality from that disease. Increases in maternal mortality have also been described but have not been extensively studied to date. This study aimed to examine changes in maternal mortality and identify correlates and predictors of excess maternal mortality in Colombia during the pandemic. SETTING: Analysis of data from the national epidemiological surveillance databases of Colombia (Sivigila). PARTICIPANTS: Deaths among 6342 Colombian pregnant women who experienced complications associated with pregnancy, childbirth or the perperium during 2008-2020 were included in this study. For inequalities analysis, a subsample of 1055 women from this group who died in 2019 or 2020 years were analysed. METHODS: We collected data from the national surveillance system (Sivigila) on maternal mortality. Analysis was carried out in two stages, starting with a time series modelling using the Box-Jenkins approach. Data from Sivigila for 2008-2019 were used to establish a baseline of expected mortality levels. Both simple and complex inequality metrics, with the maternal mortality ratios (MMRs), were then calculated using the Multidimensional Poverty Index as a socioeconomic proxy. RESULTS: Maternal deaths in 2020 were 12.6% (95% CI -21.4% to 95.7%) higher than expected. These excess deaths were statistically significant in elevation for the months of July (97.4%, 95% CI 35.1% to 250.0%) and August (87.8%, 95% CI 30.5% to 220.8%). The MMR was nearly three times higher in the poorest municipalities compared with the most affluent communities in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic had considerable impact on maternal health, not only by leading to increased deaths, but also by increasing social health inequity. Barriers to access and usage of essential health services are a challenge to achieving health-related Sustainable Development Goals.

Assessing the living environment of persons displaced following a strong earthquake sequence in Puerto Rico, 2020.

In the public health portfolio of disaster tools, rapid needs assessments are essential intelligence data mining resources that can assess immediate needs in almost all hazard scenarios. Following prolonged and unusual seismic activity that caused significant structural damage, mainly in the southwest part of the island of Puerto Rico, thousands of area residents were forced to leave their homes and establish improvised camps. The austere environmental exposure and limited access to safety and hygiene services prompted public health authorities to request assistance with conducting a rapid needs assessment of those encampments. This report summarizes the design, organization, and execution of a rapid needs assessment of improvised camps following a strong sequence of earthquakes in Puerto Rico.

Addressing the challenges of implementing evidence-based prioritisation in global health.

Global health requires evidence-based approaches to improve health and decrease inequalities. In a roundtable discussion between health practitioners, funders, academics and policy-makers, we recognised key areas for improvement to deliver better-informed, sustainable and equitable global health practices. These focus on considering information-sharing mechanisms and developing evidence-based frameworks that take an adaptive function-based approach, grounded in the ability to perform and respond to prioritised needs. Increasing social engagement as well as sector and participant diversity in whole-of-society decision-making, and collaborating with and optimising on hyperlocal and global regional entities, will improve prioritisation of global health capabilities. Since the skills required to navigate drivers of pandemics, and the challenges in prioritising, capacity building and response do not sit squarely in the health sector, it is essential to integrate expertise from a broad range of fields to maximise on available knowledge during decision-making and system development. Here, we review the current assessment tools and provide seven discussion points for how improvements to implementation of evidence-based prioritisation can improve global health.

Nursing and nursing education in Haiti.

Haiti has long had the largest proportion of people living in poverty and the highest mortality level of any country in the Americas. On January 12, 2010, the most powerful earthquake to hit Haiti in 200 years struck. Before the earthquake, half of all Haitians lacked any access to modern medical care services. Health care professionals in Haiti number around one-fourth of the world average and about one-tenth the ratio present in North America. The establishment of new primary care services in a country where half of the people had no access to modern health care prior to the earthquake requires advanced practice roles for nurses and midwives. With a high burden of infectious, parasitic, and nutritional conditions, Haiti especially needs mid-level community health workers and nurses who can train and supervise them for public health programs. As in many other developing countries, organized nursing lacks many of the management and planning skills needed to move its agenda forward. The public schools prepare 3-year diploma graduates. These programs have upgraded the curriculum little in decades and have mainly trained for hospital service. Primary care, public health program management, and patient education had often not been stressed. Specializations in midwifery and HIV care exist, while only informal programs of specialization exist in administration, surgery, and pediatrics. An advanced practice role, nonetheless, is not yet well established. Nursing has much to contribute to the recovery of Haiti and the revitalization if its health system. Professional nurses are needed in clinics and hospitals throughout the country to care for patients, including thousands in need of rehabilitation and mental health services. Haitian nursing colleagues in North America have key roles in strengthening their profession. Ways of supporting our Haitian colleagues are detailed.

Improved response to disasters and outbreaks by tracking population movements with mobile phone network data: a post-earthquake geospatial study in Haiti.

BACKGROUND: Population movements following disasters can cause important increases in morbidity and mortality. Without knowledge of the locations of affected people, relief assistance is compromised. No rapid and accurate method exists to track population movements after disasters. We used position data of subscriber identity module (SIM) cards from the largest mobile phone company in Haiti (Digicel) to estimate the magnitude and trends of population movements following the Haiti 2010 earthquake and cholera outbreak. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Geographic positions of SIM cards were determined by the location of the mobile phone tower through which each SIM card connects when calling. We followed daily positions of SIM cards 42 days before the earthquake and 158 days after. To exclude inactivated SIM cards, we included only the 1.9 million SIM cards that made at least one call both pre-earthquake and during the last month of study. In Port-au-Prince there were 3.2 persons per included SIM card. We used this ratio to extrapolate from the number of moving SIM cards to the number of moving persons. Cholera outbreak analyses covered 8 days and tracked 138,560 SIM cards. An estimated 630,000 persons (197,484 Digicel SIM cards), present in Port-au-Prince on the day of the earthquake, had left 19 days post-earthquake. Estimated net outflow of people (outflow minus inflow) corresponded to 20% of the Port-au-Prince pre-earthquake population. Geographic distribution of population movements from Port-au-Prince corresponded well with results from a large retrospective, population-based UN survey. To demonstrate feasibility of rapid estimates and to identify areas at potentially increased risk of outbreaks, we produced reports on SIM card movements from a cholera outbreak area at its immediate onset and within 12 hours of receiving data. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that estimates of population movements during disasters and outbreaks can be delivered rapidly and with potentially high validity in areas with high mobile phone use.

Changes in mortality rates and humanitarian conditions in Darfur, Sudan 2003-2007.

The Darfur region of Sudan has been an intense focus of humanitarian concern since rebellions began there early in 2003. In 2004, the US Secretary of State declared that conflict in Darfur represented genocide. Since 2003, many sample surveys and various mortality estimates for Darfur have been made. Nonetheless, confusion and controversy surrounding mortality levels and trends have continued. For this project, results were reviewed from the highest quality field surveys on mortality in Darfur conducted between 2003 and 2008. Trend analysis demonstrated a dramatic decline in mortality over time in Darfur. By 2005, mortality levels had fallen below emergency levels and have continued to decline. Deaths directly due violence have declined as a proportion of all of the deaths in Darfur. Declining mortality in Darfur was not associated with other proximate improvements in well-being, such as improved nutrition. Without large-scale, humanitarian intervention, continuing high rates of mortality due to violence likely would have occurred. If mortality had continued at the high rate documented in 2004, by January 2009, there would have been 330,000 additional deaths. With the humanitarian assistance provided through the United Nations and non-governmental organizations, these people are alive today. A focus on excess deaths among noncombatants may draw attention away from other needs, such as establishing better security, improving service delivery to the displaced, and advocating for internally displaced persons to be reached today and to re-establish their lives and livelihoods tomorrow.

Nigeria's Joint External Evaluation and National Action Plan for Health Security.

Nigeria is working to protect against and respond more effectively to disease outbreaks. Quick mobilization and control of the Ebola epidemic in 2014, at least 4 major domestic outbreaks each year, and significant progress toward polio eradication led to adoption of the World Health Organization's Global Health Security Joint External Evaluation (JEE) and National Action Plan for Health Security (NAPHS). The process required joint assessment and planning among many agencies, ministries, and sectors over the past 2 years. We carried out a JEE of 19 core programs in 2017 and launched a detailed NAPHS to improve prevention, detection, and response in December 2018, which required us to create topic-specific groups to document work to date and propose JEE scores. We then met with an international team for 5 days to review and revise scoring and recommendations, created a 5-year implementation plan, developed a management team to oversee implementation, drafted legislation to manage outbreaks, trained professionals at state and local levels of government, and set priorities among the many possible activities recommended. Management software and leadership skills were developed to monitor global health security programs. We learned to use international assistance strategically to strengthen planning and mentor national staff. Finally, a review of every major disease outbreak was used to prepare for the next challenge. Review and adaptation of this plan each year will be critical to ensure sustained momentum and progress. Many low-income countries are skilled at managing vertical disease control programs. Balancing and combining the 19 core activities of a country's public health system is a more demanding challenge.

Validating Joint External Evaluation reports with the quality of outbreak response in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Madagascar.

To date more than 100 countries have carried out a Joint External Evaluation (JEE) as part of their Global Health Security programme. The JEE is a detailed effort to assess a country's capacity to prevent, detect and respond to population health threats in 19 programmatic areas. To date no attempt has been made to determine the validity of these measures. We compare scores and commentary from the JEE in three countries to the strengths and weaknesses identified in the response to a subsequent large-scale outbreak in each of those countries. Relevant indicators were compared qualitatively, and scored as low, medium or in a high level of agreement between the JEE and the outbreak review in each of these three countries. Three reviewers independently reviewed each of the three countries. A high level of correspondence existed between score and text in the JEE and strengths and weaknesses identified in the review of an outbreak. In general, countries responded somewhat better than JEE scores indicated, but this appears to be due in part to JEE-related identification of weaknesses in that area. The improved response in large measure was due to more rapid requests for international assistance in these areas. It thus appears that even before systematic improvements are made in public health infrastructure that the JEE process may assist in improving outcomes in response to major outbreaks.

Health tracking for improved humanitarian performance.

Presently, there is no shortage of methods for collecting data on populations requiring assistance from humanitarian health interventions. However, utilizing a working group, the authors of this paper have looked at these methods through a critical lens and found that there is need for improvement upon existing systems of data collection and analysis. The authors concluded that efforts to standardize the methods of data collection are needed to achieve universal uniformity, and that more funding should be allocated to analyze the data collected.

How Bad Is It? Usefulness of the "7eed Model" for Scoring Severity and Level of Need in Complex Emergencies.

BACKGROUND: Humanitarian assistance is designated to save lives and alleviate suffering among people affected by disasters. In 2014, close to 25 billion USD was allocated to humanitarian assistance, more than 80% of it from governmental donors and EU institutions. Most of these funds are devoted to Complex Emergencies (CE). It is widely accepted that the needs of the affected population should be the main determinant for resource allocations of humanitarian funding. However, to date no common, systematic, and transparent system for needs-based allocations exists. In an earlier paper, an easy-to-use model, "the 7eed model", based on readily available indicators that distinguished between levels of severity among disaster-affected countries was presented. The aim of this paper is to assess the usefulness of the 7eed model in regards to 1) data availability, 2) variations between CE effected countries and sensitivity to change over time, and 3) reliability in capturing severity and levels of need. METHOD: We applied the 7eed model to 25 countries with CE using data from 2013 to 2015. Data availability and indicator value variations were assessed using heat maps. To calculate a severity score and a needs score, we applied a standardised mathematical formula, based on the UTSTEIN template. We assessed the model for reliability on previous CEs with a "known" outcome in terms of excess mortality. RESULTS: Most of the required data was available for nearly all countries and indicators, and availability increased over time. The 7eed model was able to discriminate between levels of severity and needs among countries. Comparison with historical complex disasters showed a correlation between excess mortality and severity score. CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that the proposed 7eed model can serve as a useful tool for setting funding levels for humanitarian assistance according to measurable levels of need. The 7eed model provides national level information but does not take into account local variations or specific contextual factors.

Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey.

BACKGROUND: In March, 2003, military forces, mainly from the USA and the UK, invaded Iraq. We did a survey to compare mortality during the period of 14.6 months before the invasion with the 17.8 months after it. METHODS: A cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during September, 2004. 33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed about household composition, births, and deaths since January, 2002. In those households reporting deaths, the date, cause, and circumstances of violent deaths were recorded. We assessed the relative risk of death associated with the 2003 invasion and occupation by comparing mortality in the 17.8 months after the invasion with the 14.6-month period preceding it. FINDINGS: The risk of death was estimated to be 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.6-4.2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1.5-fold (1.1-2.3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98000 more deaths than expected (8000-194000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% CI 8.1-419) than in the period before the war. INTERPRETATION: Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown that collection of public-health information is possible even during periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and should lead to changes to reduce non-combatant deaths from air strikes.