A Metamodeling Approach for Instant Severity Assessment and Uncertainty Quantification of Iliac Artery Stenoses.

Two-dimensional (2D) or three-dimensional (3D) models of blood flow in stenosed arteries can be used to patient-specifically predict outcome metrics, thereby supporting the physicians in decision making processes. However, these models are time consuming which limits the feasibility of output uncertainty quantification (UQ). Accurate surrogates (metamodels) might be the solution. In this study, we aim to demonstrate the feasibility of a generalized polynomial chaos expansion-based metamodel to predict a clinically relevant output metric and to quantify the output uncertainty. As an example, a metamodel was constructed from a recently developed 2D model that was shown to be able to estimate translesional pressure drops in iliac artery stenoses (-0.9 ± 12.7 mmHg, R2 = 0.81). The metamodel was constructed from a virtual database using the adaptive generalized polynomial chaos expansion (agPCE) method. The constructed metamodel was then applied to 25 stenosed iliac arteries to predict the patient-specific pressure drop and to perform UQ. Comparing predicted pressure drops of the metamodel and in vivo measured pressure drops, the mean bias (-0.2 ± 13.7 mmHg) and the coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.80) were as good as of the original 2D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. UQ results of the 2D and metamodel were comparable. Estimation of the uncertainty interval using the original 2D model took 14 days, whereas the result of the metamodel was instantly available. In conclusion, it is feasible to quantify the uncertainty of the output metric and perform sensitivity analysis (SA) instantly using a metamodel. Future studies should investigate the possibility to construct a metamodel of more complex problems.

The influence of model order reduction on the computed fractional flow reserve using parameterized coronary geometries.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models combined with patient-specific imaging data are used to non-invasively predict functional significance of coronary lesions. This approach to predict the fractional flow reserve (FFR) is shown to have a high diagnostic accuracy when comparing against invasively measured FFR. However, one of the main drawbacks is the high computational effort needed for preprocessing and computations. Hence, uncertainty quantification may become unfeasible. Reduction of complexity is desirable, computationally inexpensive models with high diagnostic accuracy are preferred. We present a parametric comparison study for three types of CFD models (2D axisymmetric, Semi-3D and 3D) in which we study the impact of model reduction on three models on the predicted FFR. In total 200 coronary geometries were generated for seven geometrical characteristics e.g. stenosis severity, stenosis length and vessel curvature. The effect of time-averaged flow was investigated using unsteady, mean steady and a root mean square (RMS) steady flow. The 3D unsteady model was regarded as reference model. Results show that when using an unsteady or RMS flow, predicted FFR hardly varies between models contrary to using average flows. The 2D model with RMS flow has a high diagnostic accuracy (0.99), reduces computational time by a factor 162,000 and the introduced model error is well below the clinical relevant differences. Stenosis severity, length, curvature and tapering cause most discrepancies when using a lower order model. An uncertainty analysis showed that this can be explained by the low variability that is caused by variations in stenosis asymmetry.