Best practices in ranking communicable disease threats: a literature review, 2015.

The threat of serious, cross-border communicable disease outbreaks in Europe poses a significant challenge to public health and emergency preparedness because the relative likelihood of these threats and the pathogens involved are constantly shifting in response to a range of changing disease drivers. To inform strategic planning by enabling effective resource allocation to manage the consequences of communicable disease outbreaks, it is useful to be able to rank and prioritise pathogens. This paper reports on a literature review which identifies and evaluates the range of methods used for risk ranking. Searches were performed across biomedical and grey literature databases, supplemented by reference harvesting and citation tracking. Studies were selected using transparent inclusion criteria and underwent quality appraisal using a bespoke checklist based on the AGREE II criteria. Seventeen studies were included in the review, covering five methodologies. A narrative analysis of the selected studies suggests that no single methodology was superior. However, many of the methods shared common components, around which a 'best-practice' framework was formulated. This approach is intended to help inform decision makers' choice of an appropriate risk-ranking study design.

National review of reported Yellow fever vaccine incidents in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF) vaccination is the single most important preventative measure against YF infection, however the live attenuated vaccine has associated serious adverse events. All YF vaccinations in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (EWNI) are administered in YF Vaccination Centres and comply with National Travel Health Network and Centre (NaTHNaC) Conditions of Designation and Code of Practice, including reporting of vaccine incidents to NaTHNaC. In this study we evaluated the number and type of YF vaccine incidents in EWNI to identify areas for improvement. METHODS: NaTHNaC's telephone advice line database was retrospectively searched from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2018 for YF vaccine incidents. Calls were categorised and analysed according to incident type. RESULTS: Seventy-eight YF vaccine incidents were reported from a total of 17250 calls. The commonest incident was incorrect timing of measles, mumps and rubella vaccine in relation to YF vaccine, where the recommended 28-day interval was not observed (n = 21). Other incidents included accidental partial vaccination (n = 11), inappropriate vaccination (n = 5) and invalid vaccination due to expiry or cold chain breach (n = 4). Inadvertent vaccination in contraindicated individuals occurred in two travellers with thymectomies (resulting in one death), and five immunocompromised travellers. CONCLUSIONS: YF vaccine incidents represent a small proportion of total calls. Similar incidents likely occur with other vaccines, but YF vaccine incidents are of particular concern; whilst most incidents were not harmful, vaccination in contraindicated individuals resulted in one death. These findings helped to inform new guidance and update training for staff in YF vaccination centres.

Hospital-based care and/or death followed by repatriation in Dutch travelers: The HAZARD study.

BACKGROUND: Travelers can experience health problems while abroad. This descriptive study aimed to quantify the disease burden leading to hospital-based care, repatriation or death in Dutch travelers during a stay in a foreign country, including Europe. METHODS: Retrospective study of demographic and clinical data from three medical assistance centers (MACs) and the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Dutch travelers receiving hospital-based care or who died abroad in the years 2010-2014. Diagnoses were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) and classified using the Global Burden of Disease tool. RESULTS: Data was available for 77,741 travelers' incidents: 75,385 medical consultations and 2,356 deaths. Four in five travelers received inpatient care, of which 36% concerned older travelers (65+) who had significantly longer hospital stays. Overall the top three diagnoses were: injuries (29%), infectious diseases (17%), and cardiovascular diseases (17%). Mental illness was reported in nearly 1.5% of the travelers. Incidence proportions were highest in South-Eastern Asia, with enteric infections as most common diagnosis. Injuries and communicable diseases occurred most often in South-Eastern Asia, while non-communicable diseases were mostly reported in South America. One in five travelers who consulted a physician was repatriated back home, mostly on a scheduled flight with or without medical escort. Cardiovascular diseases and injuries were the leading causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: Not only communicable diseases, but also injuries and chronic diseases (in particular cardiovascular diseases) frequently affected travelers' health while staying abroad and frequently necessitated hospital-based care. This should be addressed during the pre-travel counseling.

A diagnostic evaluation of single screen testing for malaria in the returning traveler: A large retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Screening for malaria in the returning traveler has often required repeat testing; however, audit data suggest that patients have not been reattending. We sought to ascertain if this was safe by examining the diagnostic efficacy of a single screen consisting of a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and a thin film. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with suspected malaria who attended in the past 5 years from two large teaching hospitals. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of a single screen, reporting measures of sensitivity and specificity. To establish a reference standard, we cross-linked data with the national malaria registry held at Public Health England and regional centers. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 1365 patients, of whom 33 opted out of the research and one did not have a complete initial screen. Of those 1331 screens there were 74 cases of Plasmodium falciparum (prevalence of 5.6%) and 104 of any malaria species (prevalence of 7.8%). Sensitivity for the detection of P. falciparum was 100.00% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 95.1 to 100), with a specificity of 99.4% (95% CI = 98.9 to 99.8). For the detection of any species of malaria the sensitivity was slightly lower due to the presence of one false negative; sensitivity was 99.0% (95% CI = 94.8 to 100) and specificity was 99.5% (95% CI = 98.9 to 99.8). CONCLUSIONS: A single thin film and RDT is likely to be sufficient as a first screen for falciparum malaria in the returning traveler with important caveats. For those sent home from emergency departments, appropriate safety netting must be provided. Further prospective study is required to investigate this approach.