High aboveground carbon stock of African tropical montane forests.

Tropical forests store 40-50 per cent of terrestrial vegetation carbon1. However, spatial variations in aboveground live tree biomass carbon (AGC) stocks remain poorly understood, in particular in tropical montane forests2. Owing to climatic and soil changes with increasing elevation3, AGC stocks are lower in tropical montane forests compared with lowland forests2. Here we assemble and analyse a dataset of structurally intact old-growth forests (AfriMont) spanning 44 montane sites in 12 African countries. We find that montane sites in the AfriMont plot network have a mean AGC stock of 149.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare (95% confidence interval 137.1-164.2), which is comparable to lowland forests in the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network4 and about 70 per cent and 32 per cent higher than averages from plot networks in montane2,5,6 and lowland7 forests in the Neotropics, respectively. Notably, our results are two-thirds higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change default values for these forests in Africa8. We find that the low stem density and high abundance of large trees of African lowland forests4 is mirrored in the montane forests sampled. This carbon store is endangered: we estimate that 0.8 million hectares of old-growth African montane forest have been lost since 2000. We provide country-specific montane forest AGC stock estimates modelled from our plot network to help to guide forest conservation and reforestation interventions. Our findings highlight the need for conserving these biodiverse9,10 and carbon-rich ecosystems.

Land use and land cover dynamics and ecosystem services values in Kewet district in the central dry lowlands of Ethiopia.

A better comprehensive and quantitative analysis of the tempo-spatial dynamics of land use and cover (LULC) in the dry lowlands areas of Ethiopia is crucial for restoring degraded landscapes. This study aimed at analyzing the trends of LULC changes and determine their ecosystem service values in Kewet district central dry lowlands of Ethiopia using multi-temporal satellite imagery for three periods: 1995, 2008, and 2017. Supervised classification, using the maximum likelihood classifier, was applied to quantify LULC changes. Ecosystem Service values were estimated using the modified ecosystem service value coefficients. LULC analysis showed that cultivated land was the most predominant which covered over 41% of the study area in all three periods. Forests showed a net increase of 18.2%. Shrubland occupied the second largest portion in all LULC analysis next to cultivated land, and it showed a net decrease of 29.2%. Open grassland showed a periodic increase. Over the past 20 years, built-up area and bared land grew continuously by 1.80 and 1.01 km2 yr-1, respectively. However, some degraded land was converted into woody vegetation land through area exclosure, which improved the vegetation coverage of the study area. Ecosystem Service values ranged from US$ 2.37 million for shrubland in 1995 to US$ 22.49 million for forest land in 2008. The total ESVs of the district also continuously decreased over the past two decades. Generally, the LULC in the Kewet district has been dynamic in that some of the LULC classes were expanding, while the others were shrinking through time.

Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment.

Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi-century tree-ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet-season (r = .64, p < .01) and annual (r = .68, p < .01) regional rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall since A.D. 1811 revealed significant interannual variations between 2.2 and 3.8 year periodicity, with significant decadal and multidecadal variations during 1855-1900 and 1960-1990. The duration of negative and positive rainfall anomalies varied between 1-7 years and 1-8 years. Approximately 78.4% (95%) of reconstructed dry (extreme dry) and 85.4% (95%) of wet (extreme wet) events lasted for 1 year only and corresponded to historical records of famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme-dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Niño and La Niña events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme-dry and extreme-wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet-season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long-term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends.

Stable carbon isotope labeling reveals different carry-over effects between functional types of tropical trees in an Ethiopian mountain forest.

We present an intra-annual stable carbon isotope (δ(13)C) study based on a labeling experiment to illustrate differences in temporal patterns of recent carbon allocation to wood structures of two functional types of trees, Podocarpus falcatus (a late-successional evergreen conifer) and Croton macrostachyus (a deciduous broadleaved pioneer tree), in a tropical mountain forest in Ethiopia. Dendrometer data, wood anatomical thin sections, and intra-annual δ(13)C analyses were applied. Isotope data revealed a clear annual growth pattern in both studied species. For P. falcatus, it was possible to synchronize annual δ(13) C peaks, wood anatomical structures and monthly precipitation patterns. The labeling signature was evident for three consecutive years. For C. macrostachyus, isotope data illustrate a rapid decline of the labeling signal within half a year. Our δ(13)C labeling study indicates a distinct difference in carryover effects between trees of different functional types. A proportion of the labeled δ(13)C is stored in reserves of wood parenchyma for up to 3 yr in P. falcatus. By contrast, C. macrostachyus shows a high turnover of assimilates and a carbon carryover effect is only detectable in the subsequent year.

Adaptation and growth performance of five avocado cultivars in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia has diverse agroecology with vast areas, suitable for growing subtropical and tropical fruits. Despite this potential, the avocado industry in Ethiopia is still in its infancy. This study assessed the adaptation of five avocado cultivars: Ettinger, Fuerte, Hass, Nabal, and Reed, survival rate, growth performances, fruit yield, and household contributions in Lemo district Ethiopia. The results revealed that there were significant differences in tree growth performance and yield among avocado cultivars (P < 0.05). The highest vegetative growth performance was demonstrated by Nabal, Fuerte, Ettinger, and Hass, while Reed was the lowest. In 2020, Nabal had the highest fruit yield (96 kg tree1), followed by Hass (47 kg tree1), while Fuerte had a relatively low fruit yield (39.43 kg tree1). Due to its larger fruit size, the Nabal was used for sale, while the Hass cultivar, which has a sweet taste, was mainly used for home consumption. The findings demonstrated that significant difference in management practices applied by male and female farmers. Overall, the study concluded that the Nabal, Hass, and Ettinger cultivars had a great potential for fruit production, which could improve smallholder farmers livelihood. As a result, it is necessary to scale up these avocado cultivars in the midland agroecological zone of the country.

Flood signals in tree-ring δ18O and wood anatomical parameters of Lagerstroemia speciosa: Implications for developing flood management strategies in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh consists of 80% of the flood plain of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system (GBM), making the country one of the highest flood prone countries of the world. Due to the high rate of discharge of the GBM caused by the summer monsoon and the snowmelt of the Eastern Himalaya and Southern Tibetan Plateau due to climate change, Bangladesh witnessed 16 flood events over 1954-2017. We performed a multiproxy tree-ring analysis to investigate the impact of extreme flood events on tree growth, xylem anatomical parameters and oxygen isotope composition of tree-ring cellulose (δ18Otr) in a Bangladeshi moist tropical forest and to establish relationships between water level of the regional rivers and tree-ring parameters. By using pointer year analysis and comparing the pointer years with historical flood records (a cut-off threshold of the country's flooded land area of 33.3%), we identified the three extreme flood events (hereafter called flood years) 1974, 1988, and 1998 in Bangladesh. Superposed epoch analysis revealed significant changes in Tree-ring width (TRW), total vessel area (TVA), vessel density (VD), and δ18Otr during flood years. Flood associated hypoxic soil conditions reduced TRW up to 53% and TVA up to 28%, varying with flood events. In contrast, VD increased by 23% as a safety mechanism against flood induced hydraulic failure. Tree-ring δ18O significantly decreased during the flood years due to the amount effect in regional precipitation. Bootstrapped Pearson correlation analysis showed that wood anatomical variables encoded stronger river level signals than TRW and δ18Otr. Among the wood anatomical parameters, VD showed a strong relationship (r = -0.58, p < 0.01) with the water level of the Manu River, a regional river of the north-eastern part of Bangladesh, indicating that VD can be used as a reliable proxy for river level reconstruction. Our analyses suggest that multiproxy tree-ring analysis is a potential tool to study tropical moist forest responses to extreme flood events and to identify suitable proxies for reconstructing hydrological characteristics of South Asian rivers.

Volume estimation models for avocado fruit.

Avocado (Persea americana Mill.) is an important horticultural crop and proved to be a very profitable commercial crop for both local consumption and export. The physical characteristics of fruits are an important factor to determine the quality of fruit produced. On the other hand, estimation of fruit volume is time-consuming and impractical under field conditions. Thus, this study was conducted to devise cultivar-specific and generalized allometric models to analytically and non-destructively determine avocado fruit volume of five wildly distributed avocado cultivars. A significant relationship (P ≤ 0.01) was found between fruit diameter, length, and volume of each cultivar. Our best models (VM2 -for cultivar specific, and VM7-generalized model) has passed all the rigorous cross-validation and performance statistics tests and explained 94%, 92%, 87%, 93%, 94% and 93% of the variations in fruit volume of Ettinger, Fuerte, Hass, Nabal, Reed, and Multiple cultivars, respectively. Our finding revealed that in situations where measurements of volume would be inconvenient, or time-consuming, a reliable volume and yield estimation can be obtained using site- and cultivar-specific allometric equations. Allometric models could also play a significant role in improving data availability on avocado fruit physical appearance which is critical to assess the quality and taste of fresh products influencing the purchase decision of customers. Moreover, such information can also be used as a ripeness index to predict optimum harvest time important for planned marketing. More importantly, the models might assist horticulturists, agronomists, and physiologists to conduct further study on avocado production and productivity through agroforestry landuse system across Ethiopia.

Tree-ring δ18O climate signals vary among tree functional types in South Asian tropical moist forests.

We present the first annually resolved and statistically reliable tree-ring δ18O (δ18OT) chronologies for the three South Asian tropical moist forest tree species (Chukrasia tabularis A. Juss., Toona ciliata M. Roem., and Lagerstroemia speciosa Roxb.) which differ in their shade tolerance and resistance to water stress. We found significantly higher mean δ18OT values in light-demanding T. ciliata than in intermediate shade tolerant C. tabularis and shade tolerant L. speciosa (p < 0.001). δ18OT in C. tabularis was mainly influenced by pre-monsoon vapor pressure deficit (VPD; r = -0.54, p < 0.01) and post monsoon maximum temperature (Tmax) (r = 0.52, p < 0.01). δ18OT in T. ciliata was strongly negatively correlated with a dry season drought index PDSI (r = -0.65, p < 0.001) and VPD (r = -0.58, p < 0.001). Pre-monsoon Tmax was strongly positively linked with δ18OT in L. speciosa (r = 0.65, p < 0.001), indicating that climatic influences on δ18OT are species-specific and vary among tree functional types. Although there was a week correlation between local precipitation and δ18OT in our studied species, we found a strong correlation between δ18OT and precipitation at a larger spatial scale. Linear mixed effect models revealed that multiple factors improved model performance only in C. tabularis, yielding the best model, which combined VPD and Tmax. The top models in T. ciliata and L. speciosa included only the single factors PDSI and Tmax, highlighting that the way C. tabularis interacts with climate is more complex when compared with other two species. Our analyses suggest that stable oxygen isotope composition in tree rings of South Asian tropical moist forest trees are a suitable proxy of local and regional climate variability and are an important tool for understanding the physiological mechanisms associated with the global hydrological cycle.

Overcoming constraints of scaling: Critical and empirical perspectives on agricultural innovation scaling.

Scaling is a ubiquitous concept in agricultural research in the global south as donors require their research grantees to prove that their results can be scaled to impact upon the livelihoods of a large number of beneficiaries. Recent studies on scaling have brought critical perspectives to the rather technocratic tendencies in the agricultural innovations scaling literature. Drawing on theoretical debates on spatial strategies and practical experience of agricultural innovation scaling in Ethiopia, this paper adds to the current debate on what constitutes scaling and how to overcome critical scaling constraints. The data for the paper came from a qualitative assessment using focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and document analysis on scaling work done in Ethiopia by a USAID-funded research for development project. The paper concludes with four broad lessons for the current understating of agricultural innovation scaling. First, scaling of agricultural innovations requires a balanced focus on technical requirements and associated social dynamics surrounding scaling targets, actors involved and their social relations. Second, appreciating the social dynamics of scaling emphasizes the fact that scaling is more complex than a linear rolling out of innovations towards diffusion. Third, scaling may not be strictly planned; instead, it might be an extension of the innovation generation process that relies heavily on both new and long-term relationships with key partners, trust, and continuous reflection and learning. Fourth, the overall implication of the above three conclusions is that scaling strategies need to be flexible, stepwise, and reflective. Despite the promises of flourishing scaling frameworks, scaling strategies it would appear from the Africa RISING experience that, if real impact is to be achieved, approaches will be required to be flexible enough to manage the social, processual and emergent nature of the practice of scaling.

Disentangling the effects of atmospheric CO2 and climate on intrinsic water-use efficiency in South Asian tropical moist forest trees.

Due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the ratio of carbon fixed by assimilation to water lost by transpiration through stomatal conductance (intrinsic water-use efficiency, iWUE) shows a long-term increasing trend globally. However, the drivers of short-term (inter-annual) variability in iWUE of tropical trees are poorly understood. We studied the inter-annual variability in iWUE of three South Asian tropical moist forest tree species (Chukrasia tabularis A.Juss., Toona ciliata M. Roem. and Lagerstroemia speciosa L.) derived from tree-ring stable carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) in response to variations of environmental conditions. We found a significantly decreasing trend in carbon discrimination (Δ13C) and an increasing trend in iWUE in all the three species, with a species-specific long-term trend in intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci). Growing season temperatures were the main driver of inter-annual variability of iWUE in C. tabularis and L. speciosa, whereas previous year temperatures determined the iWUE variability in T. ciliata. Vapor pressure deficit was linked with iWUE only in C. tabularis. Differences in shade tolerance, tree stature and canopy position might have caused this species-specific variation in iWUE response to climate. Linear mixed effect modeling successfully simulated iWUE variability, explaining 41-51% of the total variance varying with species. Commonality analysis revealed that temperatures had a dominant influence on the inter-annual iWUE variability (64-77%) over precipitation (7-22%) and atmospheric CO2 concentration (3-6%). However, the long-term variations in iWUE were explicitly determined by the atmospheric CO2 increase (83-94%). Our results suggest that the elevated CO2 and concomitant global warming might have detrimental effects on gas exchange and other physiological processes in South Asian tropical moist forest trees.

Corrigendum: Earlywood and Latewood Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotope Variations in Two Pine Species in Southwestern China during the Recent Decades.

[This corrects the article on p. 2050 in vol. 7, PMID: 28119725.].

Earlywood and Latewood Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotope Variations in Two Pine Species in Southwestern China during the Recent Decades.

Stable isotopes in wood cellulose of tree rings provide a high-resolution record of environmental conditions, yet intra-annual analysis of carbon and oxygen isotopes and their associations with physiological responses to seasonal environmental changes are still lacking. We analyzed tree-ring stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope variations in the earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) of pines from a secondary forest (Pinus kesiya) and from a natural forest (Pinus armandii) in southwestern China. There was no significant difference between δ13CEW and δ13CLW in P. kesiya, while δ13CEW was significantly higher than δ13CLW in P. armandii. For both P. kesiya and P. armandii, δ13CEW was highly correlated with previous year's δ13CLW, indicating a strong carbon carry-over effect for both pines. The intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) in the earlywood of P. armandii was slightly higher than that of P. kesiya, and iWUE of both pine species showed an increasing trend, but at a considerably higher rate in P. kesiya. Respective δ13CEW and δ13CLW series were not correlated between the two pine species and could be influenced by local environmental factors. δ13CEW of P. kesiya was positively correlated with July to September monthly mean temperature (MMT), whereas δ13CEW of P. armandii was positively correlated with February to May MMT. Respective δ18OEW and δ18OLW in P. kesiya were positively correlated with those in P. armandii, indicating a strong common climatic forcing in δ18O for both pine species. δ18OEW of both pine species was negatively correlated with May relative humidity and δ18OEW in P. armandii was negatively correlated with May precipitation, whereas δ18OLW in both pine species was negatively correlated with precipitation during autumn months, showing a high potential for climate reconstruction. Our results reveal slightly higher iWUE in natural forest pine species than in secondary forest pine species, and separating earlywood and latewood of for δ18O analyses could provide seasonally distinct climate signals in southwestern China.