Informing decision makers seeking to improve vaccination programs: case-study Serbia.

Background:The optimisation of vaccine policies before their implementation is beholden upon public health decision makers, seeking to maximise population health. In this case study in Serbia, the childhood vaccines under consideration included pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV), rotavirus (RV) vaccination and varicella zoster virus (VZV) vaccination. Objective: The objective of this study is to define the optimal order of introduction of vaccines to minimise deaths, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, or hospitalisation days, under budget and vaccine coverage constraints. Methods: A constrained optimisation model was developed including a static multi-cohort decision-tree model for the three infectious diseases. Budget and vaccine coverage were constrained, and to rank the vaccines, the optimal solution to the linear programming problem was based upon the ratio of the outcome (deaths, QALYs or hospitalisation days) per unit of budget. A probabilistic decision analysis Monte Carlo simulation technique was used to test the robustness of the rankings. Results: PCV was the vaccine ranked first to minimise deaths, VZV vaccination for QALY loss minimisation and RV vaccination for hospitalisation day reduction. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the most robust ranking was that for PCV minimizing deaths. Conclusion: Constrained optimisation modelling, whilst considering all potential interventions currently, provided a comprehensive and rational approach to decision making.

A comprehensive review of the epidemiology and disease burden of Influenza B in 9 European countries.

This review was undertaken to consolidate information on the epidemiology and burden of influenza B, as well as the circulation patterns of influenza B lineage in 9 European countries. Following a comprehensive search of peer-reviewed and gray literature sources, we found that published data on influenza B epidemiology and burden are scarce. Surveillance data show frequent co-circulation of both influenza B lineages during influenza seasons, but little is known about its impact, especially in adults and the clinical burden of influenza B remains unknown. Mismatch between the circulating influenza B lineage and vaccine recommendations has been seen in at least one influenza season in every country. Such observations could impact the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination programs using trivalent vaccines, which contain only one influenza B lineage (B/Yamagata or B/Victoria) and highlight the need for local studies to better understand the epidemiology and burden of influenza B in these countries.