Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Parus major).

Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit (Parus major), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.

Species-specific effects of thermal stress on the expression of genetic variation across a diverse group of plant and animal taxa under experimental conditions.

Assessing the genetic adaptive potential of populations and species is essential for better understanding evolutionary processes. However, the expression of genetic variation may depend on environmental conditions, which may speed up or slow down evolutionary responses. Thus, the same selection pressure may lead to different responses. Against this background, we here investigate the effects of thermal stress on genetic variation, mainly under controlled laboratory conditions. We estimated additive genetic variance (VA), narrow-sense heritability (h2) and the coefficient of genetic variation (CVA) under both benign control and stressful thermal conditions. We included six species spanning a diverse range of plant and animal taxa, and a total of 25 morphological and life-history traits. Our results show that (1) thermal stress reduced fitness components, (2) the majority of traits showed significant genetic variation and that (3) thermal stress affected the expression of genetic variation (VA, h2 or CVA) in only one-third of the cases (25 of 75 analyses, mostly in one clonal species). Moreover, the effects were highly species-specific, with genetic variation increasing in 11 and decreasing in 14 cases under stress. Our results hence indicate that thermal stress does not generally affect the expression of genetic variation under laboratory conditions but, nevertheless, increases or decreases genetic variation in specific cases. Consequently, predicting the rate of genetic adaptation might not be generally complicated by environmental variation, but requires a careful case-by-case consideration.

Opinion: Is gene mapping in wild populations useful for understanding and predicting adaptation to global change?

Changing environmental conditions will inevitably alter selection pressures. Over the long term, populations have to adapt to these altered conditions by evolutionary change to avoid extinction. Quantifying the 'evolutionary potential' of populations to predict whether they will be able to adapt fast enough to forecasted changes is crucial to fully assess the threat for biodiversity posed by climate change. Technological advances in sequencing and high-throughput genotyping have now made genomic studies possible in a wide range of species. Such studies, in theory, allow an unprecedented understanding of the genomics of ecologically relevant traits and thereby a detailed assessment of the population's evolutionary potential. Aimed at a wider audience than only evolutionary geneticists, this paper gives an overview of how gene-mapping studies have contributed to our understanding and prediction of evolutionary adaptations to climate change, identifies potential reasons why their contribution to understanding adaptation to climate change may remain limited, and highlights approaches to study and predict climate change adaptation that may be more promising, at least in the medium term.

Quantifying individual variation in reaction norms: Mind the residual.

Phenotypic plasticity is a central topic in ecology and evolution. Individuals may differ in the degree of plasticity (individual-by-environment interaction (I × E)), which has implications for the capacity of populations to respond to selection. Random regression models (RRMs) are a popular tool to study I × E in behavioural or life-history traits, yet evidence for I × E is mixed, differing between species, populations, and even between studies on the same population. One important source of discrepancies between studies is the treatment of heterogeneity in residual variance (heteroscedasticity). To date, there seems to be no collective awareness among ecologists of its influence on the estimation of I × E or a consensus on how to best model it. We performed RRMs with differing residual variance structures on simulated data with varying degrees of heteroscedasticity and plasticity, sample size and environmental variability to test how RRMs would perform under each scenario. The residual structure in the RRMs affected the precision of estimates of simulated I × E as well as statistical power, with substantial lack of precision and high false-positive rates when sample size, environmental variability and plasticity were small. We show that model comparison using information criteria can be used to choose among residual structures and reinforce this point by analysis of real data of two study populations of great tits (Parus major). We provide guidelines that can be used by biologists studying I × E that, ultimately, should lead to a reduction in bias in the literature concerning the statistical evidence and the reported magnitude of variation in plasticity.

Temperature has a causal and plastic effect on timing of breeding in a small songbird.

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism by which an individual can adapt its seasonal timing to predictable, short-term environmental changes by using predictive cues. Identification of these cues is crucial to forecast the response of species to long-term environmental change and to study their potential to adapt. Individual great tits (Parus major) start reproduction early under warmer conditions in the wild, but whether this effect is causal is not well known. We housed 36 pairs of great tits in climate-controlled aviaries and 40 pairs in outdoor aviaries, where they bred under artificial contrasting temperature treatments or in semi-natural conditions, respectively, for two consecutive years, using birds from lines selected for early and late egg laying. We thus obtained laying dates in two different thermal environments for each female. Females bred earlier under warmer conditions in climate-controlled aviaries, but not in outdoor aviaries. The latter was inconsistent with laying dates from our wild population. Further, early selection line females initiated egg laying consistently ∼9 days earlier than late selection line females in outdoor aviaries, but we found no difference in the degree of plasticity (i.e. the sensitivity to temperature) in laying date between selection lines. Because we found that temperature causally affects laying date, climate change will lead to earlier laying. This advancement is, however, unlikely to be sufficient, thereby leading to selection for earlier laying. Our results suggest that natural selection may lead to a change in mean phenotype, but not to a change in the sensitivity of laying dates to temperature.

Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator-prey interaction: Simpler works better.

Global climate change has sparked a vast research effort into the demographic and evolutionary consequences of mismatches between consumer and resource phenology. Many studies have used the difference in peak dates to quantify phenological synchrony (match in dates, MD), but this approach has been suggested to be inconclusive, since it does not incorporate the temporal overlap between the phenological distributions (match in overlap, MO). We used 24 years of detailed data on the phenology of a predator-prey system, the great tit (Parus major) and the main food for its nestlings, caterpillars, to estimate MD and MO at the population and brood levels. We compared the performance of both metrics on two key demographic parameters: offspring recruitment probability and selection on the timing of reproduction. Although MD and MO correlated quadratically as expected, MD was a better predictor for both offspring recruitment and selection on timing than MO. We argue-and verify through simulations-that this is because quantifying MO has to be based on nontrivial, difficult-to-verify assumptions that likely render MO too inaccurate as a proxy for food availability in practice. Our results have important implications for the allocation of research efforts in long-term population studies in highly seasonal environments.

Exploration of tissue-specific gene expression patterns underlying timing of breeding in contrasting temperature environments in a song bird.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal timing of breeding is a life history trait with major fitness consequences but the genetic basis of the physiological mechanism underlying it, and how gene expression is affected by date and temperature, is not well known. In order to study this, we measured patterns of gene expression over different time points in three different tissues of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal-liver axis, and investigated specifically how temperature affects this axis during breeding. We studied female great tits (Parus major) from lines artificially selected for early and late timing of breeding that were housed in two contrasting temperature environments in climate-controlled aviaries. We collected hypothalamus, liver and ovary samples at three different time points (before and after onset of egg-laying). For each tissue, we sequenced whole transcriptomes of 12 pools (n = 3 females) to analyse gene expression. RESULTS: Birds from the selection lines differed in expression especially for one gene with clear reproductive functions, zona pellucida glycoprotein 4 (ZP4), which has also been shown to be under selection in these lines. Genes were differentially expressed at different time points in all tissues and most of the differentially expressed genes between the two temperature treatments were found in the liver. We identified a set of hub genes from all the tissues which showed high association to hormonal functions, suggesting that they have a core function in timing of breeding. We also found ample differentially expressed genes with largely unknown functions in birds. CONCLUSIONS: We found differentially expressed genes associated with selection line and temperature treatment. Interestingly, the latter mainly in the liver suggesting that temperature effects on egg-laying date may happen down-stream in the physiological pathway. These findings, as well as our datasets, will further the knowledge of the mechanisms of tissue-specific avian seasonality in the future.

Between- and Within-Individual Variation of Maternal Thyroid Hormone Deposition in Wild Great Tits (Parus major).

Maternal hormones are often considered a mediator of anticipatory maternal effects; namely, mothers adjust maternal hormone transfer to prepare the offspring for the anticipated environment. The flexibility for mothers to adjust hormone transfer is therefore a prerequisite for such anticipatory maternal effects. Nevertheless, previous studies have focused only on the average differences of maternal hormone transfer between groups and neglected the substantial individual variation, despite the fact that individual plasticity in maternal hormone transfer is actually the central assumption. In this study, we studied the between- and within-individual variation of maternal thyroid hormones (THs) in egg yolk of wild great tits (Parus major) and estimated the individual plasticity of maternal yolk THs across environmental temperature, clutch initiation dates, and egg laying order using linear mixed effects models. Interestingly, our models provide statistical evidence that the two main THs-the main biologically active hormone T3 and T4, which is mostly considered a prohormone-exhibited different variation patterns. Yolk T3 showed significant between-individual variation on the average levels, in line with its previously reported moderate heritability. Yolk T4, however, showed significant between-clutch variation in the pattern over the laying sequence, suggesting a great within-individual plasticity. Our findings suggest that the role and function of the hormone within the endocrine axis likely influences its flexibility to respond to environmental change. Whether the flexibility of T4 deposition brings a fitness advantage should be examined along with its potential effects on offspring, which remain to be further investigated.

Short-term, but not long-term, increased daytime workload leads to decreased night-time energetics in a free-living song bird.

Reproduction is energetically expensive and to obtain sufficient energy, animals can either alter their metabolic system over time to increase energy intake (increased-intake hypothesis) or reallocate energy from maintenance processes (compensation hypothesis). The first hypothesis predicts a positive relationship between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and energy expenditure (DEE) because of the higher energy demands of the metabolic system at rest. The second hypothesis predicts a trade-off between different body functions, with a reduction of the BMR as a way to compensate for increased daytime energetic expenditure. We experimentally manipulated the workload of wild pied flycatchers by adding or removing chicks when chicks were 2 and 11 days old. We then measured the feeding frequency (FF), DEE and BMR at day 11, allowing us to assess both short- and long-term effects of increased workload. The manipulation at day 2 caused an increase in FF when broods were enlarged, but no response in DEE or BMR, while the manipulation at day 11 caused an increase in FF, no change in DEE and a decrease in BMR in birds with more chicks. Our results suggest that pied flycatchers adjust their workload but that this does not lead to a higher BMR at night (no support for the increased-intake hypothesis). In the short term, we found that birds reallocate energy with a consequent reduction of BMR (evidence for the compensation hypothesis). Birds thus resort to short-term strategies to increase energy expenditure, which could explain why energy expenditure and hard work are not always correlated in birds.

Fine-tuning of seasonal timing of breeding is regulated downstream in the underlying neuro-endocrine system in a small songbird.

The timing of breeding is under selection in wild populations as a result of climate change, and understanding the underlying physiological processes mediating this timing provides insight into the potential rate of adaptation. Current knowledge on this variation in physiology is, however, mostly limited to males. We assessed whether individual differences in the timing of breeding in females are reflected in differences in candidate gene expression and, if so, whether these differences occur in the upstream (hypothalamus) or downstream (ovary and liver) parts of the neuroendocrine system. We used 72 female great tits from two generations of lines artificially selected for early and late egg laying, which were housed in climate-controlled aviaries and went through two breeding cycles within 1 year. In the first breeding season we obtained individual egg-laying dates, while in the second breeding season, using the same individuals, we sampled several tissues at three time points based on the timing of the first breeding attempt. For each tissue, mRNA expression levels were measured using qPCR for a set of candidate genes associated with the timing of reproduction and subsequently analysed for differences between generations, time points and individual timing of breeding. We found differences in gene expression between generations in all tissues, with the most pronounced differences in the hypothalamus. Differences between time points, and early- and late-laying females, were found exclusively in the ovary and liver. Altogether, we show that fine-tuning of the seasonal timing of breeding, and thereby the opportunity for adaptation in the neuroendocrine system, is regulated mostly downstream in the neuro-endocrine system.

Maternal Effects in a Wild Songbird Are Environmentally Plastic but Only Marginally Alter the Rate of Adaptation.

Despite ample evidence for the presence of maternal effects (MEs) in a variety of traits and strong theoretical indications for their evolutionary consequences, empirical evidence to what extent MEs can influence evolutionary responses to selection remains ambiguous. We tested the degree to which MEs can alter the rate of adaptation of a key life-history trait, clutch size, using an individual-based model approach parameterized with experimental data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We modeled two types of MEs: (i) an environmentally plastic ME, in which the relationship between maternal and offspring clutch size depended on the maternal environment via offspring condition, and (ii) a fixed ME, in which this relationship was constant. Although both types of ME affected the rate of adaptation following an abrupt environmental shift, the overall effects were small. We conclude that evolutionary consequences of MEs are modest at best in our study system, at least for the trait and the particular type of ME we considered here. A closer link between theoretical and empirical work on MEs would hence be useful to obtain accurate predictions about the evolutionary consequences of MEs more generally.

Climate change leads to differential shifts in the timing of annual cycle stages in a migratory bird.

Shifts in reproductive phenology due to climate change have been well documented in many species but how, within the same species, other annual cycle stages (e.g. moult, migration) shift relative to the timing of breeding has rarely been studied. When stages shift at different rates, the interval between stages may change resulting in overlaps, and as each stage is energetically demanding, these overlaps may have negative fitness consequences. We used long-term data of a population of European pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to investigate phenological shifts in three annual cycle stages: spring migration (arrival dates), breeding (egg-laying and hatching dates) and the onset of postbreeding moult. We found different advancements in the timing of breeding compared with moult (moult advances faster) and no advancement in arrival dates. To understand these differential shifts, we explored which temperatures best explain the year-to-year variation in the timing of these stages, and show that they respond differently to temperature increases in the Netherlands, causing the intervals between arrival and breeding and between breeding and moult to decrease. Next, we tested the fitness consequences of these shortened intervals. We found no effect on clutch size, but the probability of a fledged chick to recruit increased with a shorter arrival-breeding interval (earlier breeding). Finally, mark-recapture analyses did not detect an effect of shortened intervals on adult survival. Our results suggest that the advancement of breeding allows more time for fledgling development, increasing their probability to recruit. This may incur costs to other parts of the annual cycle, but, despite the shorter intervals, there was no effect on adult survival. Our results show that to fully understand the consequences of climate change, it is necessary to look carefully at different annual cycle stages, especially for organisms with complex cycles, such as migratory birds.

Effects of spring temperatures on the strength of selection on timing of reproduction in a long-distance migratory bird.

Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980-2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001-2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.

Climate change relaxes the time constraints for late-born offspring in a long-distance migrant.

Animals in seasonal environments need to fit their annual-cycle stages, such as moult and migration, in a tight schedule. Climate change affects the phenology of organisms and causes advancements in timing of these annual-cycle stages but not necessarily at the same rates. For migratory birds, this can lead to more severe or more relaxed time constraints in the time from fledging to migration, depending on the relative shifts of the different stages. We tested how a shift in hatch date, which has advanced due to climate change, impacts the organization of the birds' whole annual cycle. We experimentally advanced and delayed the hatch date of pied flycatcher chicks in the field and then measured the timing of their annual-cycle stages in a controlled laboratory environment. Hatch date affected the timing of moult and pre-migratory fattening, but not migration. Early-born birds hence had a longer time to fatten up than late-born ones; the latter reduced their interval between onset of fattening and migration to be able to migrate at the same time as the early-born birds. This difference in time constraints for early- and late-born individuals may explain why early-born offspring have a higher probability to recruit as a breeding bird. Climate change-associated advancements of avian egg-lay dates, which in turn advances hatch dates, can thus reduce the negative fitness consequences of reproducing late, thereby reducing the selection for early egg-laying migratory birds.

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology.

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations.

Is microevolution the only emergency exit in a warming world? Temperature influences egg laying but not its underlying mechanisms in great tits.

Many bird species have advanced their seasonal timing in response to global warming, but we still know little about the causal effect of temperature. We carried out experiments in climate-controlled aviaries to investigate how temperature affects luteinizing hormone, prolactin, gonadal development, timing of egg laying and onset of moult in male and female great tits. We used both natural and artificial temperature patterns to identify the temperature characteristics that matter for birds. Our results show that temperature has a direct, causal effect on onset of egg-laying, and in particular, that it is the pattern of increase rather than the absolute temperature that birds use. Surprisingly, the pre-breeding increases in plasma LH, prolactin and in gonadal size are not affected by increasing temperature, nor do they correlate with the onset of laying. This suggests that the decision to start breeding and its regulatory mechanisms are fine-tuned by different factors. We also found similarities between siblings in the timing of both the onset of reproduction and associated changes in plasma LH, prolactin and gonadal development. In conclusion, while temperature affects the timing of egg laying, the neuroendocrine system does not seem to be regulated by moderate temperature changes. This lack of responsiveness may restrain the advance in the timing of breeding in response to climate change. But as there is heritable genetic variation on which natural selection can act, microevolution can take place, and may represent the only way to adapt to a warming world.

Genotypes selected for early and late avian lay date differ in their phenotype, but not fitness, in the wild.

Global warming has shifted phenological traits in many species, but whether species are able to track further increasing temperatures depends on the fitness consequences of additional shifts in phenological traits. To test this, we measured phenology and fitness of great tits (Parus major) with genotypes for extremely early and late egg lay dates, obtained from a genomic selection experiment. Females with early genotypes advanced lay dates relative to females with late genotypes, but not relative to nonselected females. Females with early and late genotypes did not differ in the number of fledglings produced, in line with the weak effect of lay date on the number of fledglings produced by nonselected females in the years of the experiment. Our study is the first application of genomic selection in the wild and led to an asymmetric phenotypic response that indicates the presence of constraints toward early, but not late, lay dates.

Increasing temperature, not mean temperature, is a cue for avian timing of reproduction.

Timing of reproduction in temperate-zone birds is strongly correlated with spring temperature, with an earlier onset of breeding in warmer years. Females adjust their timing of egg laying between years to be synchronized with local food sources and thereby optimize reproductive output. However, climate change currently disrupts the link between predictive environmental cues and spring phenology. To investigate direct effects of temperature on the decision to lay and its genetic basis, we used pairs of great tits (Parus major) with known ancestry and exposed them to simulated spring scenarios in climate-controlled aviaries. In each of three years, we exposed birds to different patterns of changing temperature. We varied the timing of a temperature change, the daily temperature amplitude, and the onset and speed of a seasonal temperature rise. We show that females fine-tune their laying in response to a seasonal increase in temperature, whereas mean temperature and daily temperature variation alone do not affect laying dates. Luteinizing hormone concentrations and gonadal growth in early spring were not influenced by temperature or temperature rise, possibly posing a constraint to an advancement of breeding. Similarities between sisters in their laying dates indicate genetic variation in cue sensitivity. These results refine our understanding of how changes in spring climate might affect the mismatch in avian timing and thereby population viability.

Differential responses to related hosts by nesting and non-nesting parasites in a brood-parasitic duck.

Host-parasite relatedness may facilitate the evolution of conspecific brood parasitism, but empirical support for this contention remains inconclusive. One reason for this disparity may relate to the diversity of parasitic tactics, a key distinguishing feature being whether the parasite has a nest of her own. Previous work suggests that parasites without nests of their own may be of inferior phenotypic quality, but because of difficulties in identifying these parasitic individuals, little is known about their host selection criteria. We used high-resolution molecular maternity tests to assign parasitic offspring to known parasites with and without their own nests in a population of Barrow's goldeneyes (Bucephala islandica). We determined whether parasite nesting status, host-parasite relatedness and distance between host and parasite nests affected the probability of parasitizing a host and the number of eggs laid per host. We also investigated whether nesting parasites, conventionally nesting females and non-nesting parasites differed regarding their age, structural size, body condition, nesting phenology or total brood size. The probability of engaging in parasitism increased with host-parasite relatedness and spatial proximity to host nests for nesting and non-nesting females alike. However, nesting parasites increased the number of eggs donated with relatedness to the host, while non-nesting parasites did not do so. Non-nesting parasites laid fewer eggs in total, but did not differ by any of the other quality measures from conventional nesters or nesting parasites. Our study provides the first demonstration that nesting and non-nesting parasites from the same population may use different host selection criteria.