Predicting the time to detect moderately virulent African swine fever virus in finisher swine herds using a stochastic disease transmission model.

BACKGROUND: African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and devastating pig disease that has caused extensive global economic losses. Understanding ASF virus (ASFV) transmission dynamics within a herd is necessary in order to prepare for and respond to an outbreak in the United States. Although the transmission parameters for the highly virulent ASF strains have been estimated in several articles, there are relatively few studies focused on moderately virulent strains. Using an approximate Bayesian computation algorithm in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation, we have estimated the adequate contact rate for moderately virulent ASFV strains and determined the statistical distributions for the durations of mild and severe clinical signs using individual, pig-level data. A discrete individual based disease transmission model was then used to estimate the time to detect ASF infection based on increased mild clinical signs, severe clinical signs, or daily mortality. RESULTS: Our results indicate that it may take two weeks or longer to detect ASF in a finisher swine herd via mild clinical signs or increased mortality beyond levels expected in routine production. A key factor contributing to the extended time to detect ASF in a herd is the fairly long latently infected period for an individual pig (mean 4.5, 95% P.I., 2.4 - 7.2 days). CONCLUSION: These transmission model parameter estimates and estimated time to detection via clinical signs provide valuable information that can be used not only to support emergency preparedness but also to inform other simulation models of evaluating regional disease spread.

Maturational Changes in Human Dorsal and Ventral Visual Networks.

Developmental neuroimaging studies report the emergence of increasingly diverse cognitive functions as closely entangled with a rise-fall modulation of cortical thickness (CTh), structural cortical and white-matter connectivity, and a time-course for the experience-dependent selective elimination of the overproduced synapses. We examine which of two visual processing networks, the dorsal (DVN; prefrontal, parietal nodes) or ventral (VVN; frontal-temporal, fusiform nodes) matures first, thus leading the neuro-cognitive developmental trajectory. Three age-dependent measures are reported: (i) the CTh at network nodes; (ii) the matrix of intra-network structural connectivity (edges); and (iii) the proficiency in network-related neuropsychological tests. Typically developing children (age ~6 years), adolescents (~11 years), and adults (~21 years) were tested using multiple-acquisition structural T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neuropsychology. MRI images reconstructed into a gray/white/pial matter boundary model were used for CTh evaluation. No significant group differences in CTh and in the matrix of edges were found for DVN (except for the left prefrontal), but a significantly thicker cortex in children for VVN with reduced prefrontal ventral-fusiform connectivity and with an abundance of connections in adolescents. The higher performance in children on tests related to DVN corroborates the age-dependent MRI structural connectivity findings. The current findings are consistent with an earlier maturational course of DVN.

Development and Implementation of a National Center of Excellence in Dairy Production Medicine Education for Veterinary Students: Description of the Effort and Lessons Learned.

The need for consortial programs to provide advanced education in food animal veterinary production medicine has been recognized and lauded for nearly three decades. This article describes one effort to create a dairy production medicine curriculum funded by a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Higher Education Challenge Grant. This National Center of Excellence in Dairy Production Medicine Education for Veterinarians is housed at the Dairy Education Center of the University of Minnesota and the project was a collaboration of the University of Minnesota, the University of Illinois, the University of Georgia, and Kansas State University. The article reviews the need for innovative ways to educate students who will optimally serve the dairy industry, provides a broad overview of the process of developing and delivering the eight-week dairy production medicine curriculum, and describes the challenges faced and lessons learned as a result of offering such a program.

Analysis of geographic location and pathways for influenza A virus infection of commercial upland game bird and conventional poultry farms in the United States of America.

BACKGROUND: Avian influenza (AI) is an infectious viral disease that affects several species and has zoonotic potential. Due to its associated health and economic repercussions, minimizing AI outbreaks is important. However, most control measures are generic and mostly target pathways important for the conventional poultry farms producing chickens, turkeys, and eggs and may not target other pathways that may be specific to the upland game bird sector. The goal of this study is to provide evidence to support the development of novel strategies for sector-specific AI control by comparing and contrasting practices and potential pathways for spread in upland game bird farms with those for conventional poultry farms in the United States. Farm practices and processes, seasonality of activities, geographic location and inter-farm distance were analyzed across the sectors. All the identified differences were framed and discussed in the context of their associated pathways for virus introduction into the farm and subsequent between-farm spread. RESULTS: Differences stemming from production systems and seasonality, inter-farm distance and farm densities were evident and these could influence both fomite-mediated and local-area spread risks. Upland game bird farms operate under a single, independent owner rather than being contracted with or owned by a company with other farms as is the case with conventional poultry. The seasonal marketing of upland game birds, largely driven by hunting seasons, implies that movements are seasonal and customer-vendor dynamics vary between industry groups. Farm location analysis revealed that, on average, an upland game bird premises was 15.42 km away from the nearest neighboring premises with birds compared to 3.74 km for turkey premises. Compared to turkey premises, the average poultry farm density in a radius of 10 km of an upland game bird premises was less than a half, and turkey premises were 3.8 times (43.5% compared with 11.5%) more likely to fall within a control area during the 2015 Minnesota outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the existing differences in the seasonality of production, isolated geographic location and epidemiological seclusion of farms influence AI spread dynamics and therefore disease control measures should be informed by these and other factors to achieve success.

Quantitative Estimation of the Number of Contaminated Hatching Eggs Released from an Infected, Undetected Turkey Breeder Hen Flock During a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak.

The regulatory response to an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the United States may involve quarantine and stop movement orders that have the potential to disrupt continuity of operations in the U.S. turkey industry--particularly in the event that an uninfected breeder flock is located within an HPAI Control Area. A group of government-academic-industry leaders developed an approach to minimize the unintended consequences associated with outbreak response, which incorporates HPAI control measures to be implemented prior to moving hatching eggs off of the farm. Quantitative simulation models were used to evaluate the movement of potentially contaminated hatching eggs from a breeder henhouse located in an HPAI Control Area, given that active surveillance testing, elevated biosecurity, and a 2-day on-farm holding period were employed. The risk analysis included scenarios of HPAI viruses differing in characteristics as well as scenarios in which infection resulted from artificial insemination. The mean model-predicted number of internally contaminated hatching eggs released per movement from an HPAI-infected turkey breeder henhouse ranged from 0 to 0.008 under the four scenarios evaluated. The results indicate a 95% chance of no internally contaminated eggs being present per movement from an infected house before detection. Sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to variation in key transmission model parameters within the range of their estimates from available literature. Infectious birds at the time of egg collection are a potential pathway of external contamination for eggs stored and then moved off of the farm; the predicted number of such infectious birds was estimated to be low. To date, there has been no evidence of vertical transmission of HPAI virus or low pathogenic avian influenza virus to day-old poults from hatching eggs originating from infected breeders. The application of risk analysis methods was beneficial for evaluating outbreak measures developed through emergency response planning initiatives that consider the managed movement of hatching eggs from monitored premises in an HPAI Control Area.

Evolutionary tinkering with visual photoreception.

Eyes have evolved many times, and arthropods and vertebrates share transcription factors for early development. Moreover, the photochemistry of vision in all eyes employs an opsin and the isomerization of a retinoid from the 11-cis to the all-trans configuration. The opsins, however, have associated with several different G proteins, initiating hyperpolarizing and depolarizing conductance changes at the photoreceptor membrane. Beyond these obvious instances of homology, much of the evolutionary story is one of tinkering, producing a great variety of morphological forms and variation within functional themes. This outcome poses a central issue in the convergence of evolutionary and developmental biology: what are the heritable features in the later stages of development that give natural selection traction in altering phenotypic outcomes? This paper discusses some results of evolutionary tinkering where this question arises and, in some cases, where the reasons for particular outcomes and the role of adaptation may not be understood. Phenotypic features include: the exploitation of microvilli in rhabdomeric photoreceptors for detecting the plane of polarized light; different instances of retinoid in the visual pigment; examples of the many uses of accessory pigments in tuning the spectral sensitivity of photoreceptors; selection of opsins in tuning sensitivity in aquatic environments; employing either reflection or refraction in the optics of compound eyes; the multiple ways of constructing images in compound eyes; and the various ways of regenerating 11-cis retinals to maintain visual sensitivity. Evolution is an irreversible process, but tinkering may recover some lost functions, albeit by new mutational routes. There is both elegance and intellectual coherence to the natural processes that produce such variety and functional complexity. But marginalizing the teaching of evolution in public education is a continuing social and political problem that contributes to the reckless capacity of humans to alter the planet without trying to understand how nature works.

Effect of castration timing and weaning strategy on the taxonomic and functional profile of ruminal bacteria and archaea of beef calves.

BACKGROUND: Beef cattle experience several management challenges across their lifecycle. Castration and weaning, two major interventions in the early life of beef cattle, can have a substantial impact on animal performance. Despite the key role of the rumen microbiome on productive traits of beef cattle, the effect of castration timing and weaning strategy on this microbial community has not been formally described. We assessed the effect of four castration time windows (at birth, turnout, pre-weaning and weaning) and two weaning strategies (fence-line and truck transportation) on the rumen microbiome in a randomized controlled study with 32 male calves across 3 collection days (i.e., time points). Ruminal fluid samples were submitted to shotgun metagenomic sequencing and changes in the taxonomic (microbiota) and functional profile (metagenome) of the rumen microbiome were described. RESULTS: Using a comprehensive yet stringent taxonomic classification approach, we identified 10,238 unique taxa classified under 40 bacterial and 7 archaeal phyla across all samples. Castration timing had a limited long-term impact on the rumen microbiota and was not associated with changes in alpha and beta diversity. The interaction of collection day and weaning strategy was associated with changes in the rumen microbiota, which experienced a significant decrease in alpha diversity and shifts in beta diversity within 48 h post-weaning, especially in calves abruptly weaned by truck transportation. Calves weaned using a fence-line weaning strategy had lower relative abundance of Bacteroides, Lachnospira, Fibrobacter and Ruminococcus genera compared to calves weaned by truck transportation. Some genes involved in the hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis pathway (fwdB and fwdF) had higher relative abundance in fence-line-weaned calves post-weaning. The antimicrobial resistance gene tetW consistently represented more than 50% of the resistome across time, weaning and castration groups, without significant changes in relative abundance. CONCLUSIONS: Within the context of this study, castration timing had limited long-term effects on the rumen microbiota, while weaning strategy had short-term effects on the rumen microbiota and methane-associated metagenome, but not on the rumen resistome.

Incorporating risk communication into highly pathogenic avian influenza preparedness and response efforts.

A highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the United States will initiate a federal emergency response effort that will consist of disease control and eradication efforts, including quarantine and movement control measures. These movement control measures will not only apply to live animals but also to animal products. However, with current egg industry "just-in-time" production practices, limited storage is available to hold eggs. As a result, stop movement orders can have significant unintended negative consequences, including severe disruptions to the food supply chain. Because stakeholders' perceptions of risk vary, waiting to initiate communication efforts until an HPAI event occurs can hinder disease control efforts, including the willingness of producers to comply with the response, and also can affect consumers' demand for the product. A public-private-academic partnership was formed to assess actual risks involved in the movement of egg industry products during an HPAI event through product specific, proactive risk assessments. The risk analysis process engaged a broad representation of stakeholders and promoted effective risk management and communication strategies before an HPAI outbreak event. This multidisciplinary team used the risk assessments in the development of the United States Department of Agriculture, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Secure Egg Supply Plan, a comprehensive response plan that strives to maintain continuity of business. The collaborative approach that was used demonstrates how a proactive risk communication strategy that involves many different stakeholders can be valuable in the development of a foreign animal disease response plan and build working relationships, trust, and understanding.

The impact of holding time on the likelihood of moving internally contaminated eggs from a highly pathogenic avian influenza infected but undetected commercial table-egg layer flock.

Emergency response during a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak may involve quarantine and movement controls for poultry products such as eggs. However, such disease control measures may disrupt business continuity and impact food security, since egg production facilities often do not have sufficient capacity to store eggs for prolonged periods. We propose the incorporation of a holding time before egg movement in conjunction with targeted active surveillance as a novel approach to move eggs from flocks within a control area with a low likelihood of them being contaminated with HPAI virus. Holding time reduces the likelihood of HPAI-contaminated eggs being moved from a farm before HPAI infection is detected in the flock. We used a stochastic disease transmission model to estimate the HPAI disease prevalence, disease mortality, and fraction of internally contaminated eggs at various time points postinfection of a commercial table-egg layer flock. The transmission model results were then used in a simulation model of a targeted matrix gene real-time reverse transcriptase (RRT)-PCR testing based surveillance protocol to estimate the time to detection and the number of contaminated eggs moved under different holding times. Our simulation results indicate a significant reduction in the number of internally contaminated eggs moved from an HPAI-infected undetected flock with each additional day of holding time. Incorporation of a holding time and the use of targeted surveillance have been adopted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in their Draft Secure Egg Supply Plan for movement of egg industry products during an HPAI outbreak.

Impact of virus strain characteristics on early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza infection in commercial table-egg layer flocks and implications for outbreak control.

Early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infection in commercial poultry flocks is a critical component of outbreak control. Reducing the time to detect HPAI infection can reduce the risk of disease transmission to other flocks. The timeliness of different types of detection triggers could be dependent on clinical signs that are first observed in a flock, signs that might vary due to HPAI virus strain characteristics. We developed a stochastic disease transmission model to evaluate how transmission characteristics of various HPAI strains might effect the relative importance of increased mortality, drop in egg production, or daily real-time reverse transcriptase (RRT)-PCR testing, toward detecting HPAI infection in a commercial table-egg layer flock. On average, daily RRT-PCR testing resulted in the shortest time to detection (from 3.5 to 6.1 days) depending on the HPAI virus strain and was less variable over a range of transmission parameters compared with other triggers evaluated. Our results indicate that a trigger to detect a drop in egg production would be useful for HPAI virus strains with long infectious periods (6-8 days) and including an egg-drop detection trigger in emergency response plans would lead to earlier and consistent reporting in some cases. We discuss implications for outbreak control and risk of HPAI spread attributed to different HPAI strain characteristics where an increase in mortality or a drop in egg production or both would be among the first clinical signs observed in an infected flock.

How Forces of a Complex Adaptive System Affect Ability to Control Bovine Respiratory Disease in Feeder Cattle.

This chapter provides an introductory look into the practical application of the principals of systems thinking as a methodology to gain deeper understanding of the nature of bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in current North American beef production models. The "limits to success" archetype is used to explore the dynamic relationship between technological BRD mitigation improvements and the resultant adaptive changes made by the system. The chapter concludes, by using the tragedy of the common archetype, with an investigation into how the common shared resource of antimicrobials can be damaged and depleted over time.

Current Reality of Beef Cattle Veterinary Practice in North America: A Systems Thinking Perspective.

Beef cattle veterinarians provide services to the increasingly complex beef industry system. Systems thinking offers pathways to better understand and communicate ranges of issues such as prevailing mental models, importance of match quality relative to clientele needs, and identification of leverage to better adapt and continually improve. Thinking in systems identifies and helps us to understand patterns or structures that are organized and interconnected that result in the outcomes observed and experienced in the practice of beef cattle veterinary medicine.

African swine fever detection and transmission estimates using homogeneous versus heterogeneous model formulation in stochastic simulations within pig premises.

Background: African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important foreign animal diseases to the U.S. swine industry. Stakeholders in the swine production sector are on high alert as they witness the devastation of ongoing outbreaks in some of its most important trade partner countries. Efforts to improve preparedness for ASF outbreak management are proceeding in earnest and mathematical modeling is an integral part of these efforts. Aim: This study aimed to assess the impact on within-herd transmission dynamics of ASF when the models used to simulate transmission assume there is homogeneous mixing of animals within a barn. Methods: Barn-level heterogeneity was explicitly captured using a stochastic, individual pig-based, heterogeneous transmission model that considers three types of infection transmission, (1) within-pen via nose-to-nose contact; (2) between-pen via nose-to-nose contact with pigs in adjacent pens; and (3) both between- and within-pen via distance-independent mechanisms (e.g., via fomites). Predictions were compared between the heterogeneous and the homogeneous Gillespie models. Results: Results showed that the predicted mean number of infectious pigs at specific time points differed greatly between the homogeneous and heterogeneous models for scenarios with low levels of between-pen contacts via distance-independent pathways and the differences between the two model predictions were more pronounced for the slow contact rate scenario. The heterogeneous transmission model results also showed that it may take significantly longer to detect ASF, particularly in large barns when transmission predominantly occurs via nose-to-nose contact between pigs in adjacent pens. Conclusion: The findings emphasize the need for completing preliminary explorations when working with homogeneous mixing models to ascertain their suitability to predict disease outcomes.

Assessing air medical crew real-time readiness to perform critical tasks.

BACKGROUND: Air medical transport has had problems with its safety record, attributed in part to human error. Flight crew members (FCMs) must be able to focus on critical safety tasks in the context of a stressful environment. Flight crew members' cognitive readiness (CR) to perform their jobs may be affected by sleep deprivation, personal problems, high workload, and use of alcohol and drugs. OBJECTIVE: The current study investigated the feasibility of using a computer-based cognitive task to assess FCMs' readiness to perform their job. METHODS: The FCMs completed a short questionnaire to evaluate their physiologic and psychological state at the beginning and end of each shift. The FCMs then performed 3 minutes of a computer-based cognitive task called synthetic work environment (SYNWIN test battery). Task performance was compared with the questionnaire variables using correlation and regression analysis. Differences between the beginning and end of each shift were matched and compared using a paired Students t test. RESULTS: SYNWIN performance was significantly worse at the end of a shift compared with the beginning of the shift (p = 0.028) primarily because of decrement in the memory component. The SYNWIN composite scores were negatively correlated to degree of irritability felt by the participant, both before (r = -0.25) and after (r = -0.34) a shift and were significantly correlated with amount of sleep (0.22), rest (0.30), and life satisfaction (0.30). CONCLUSIONS: Performance by FCMs on a simple, rapid, computer-based psychological test correlates well with self-reported sleep, rest, life satisfaction, and irritability. Although further studies are warranted, these findings suggest that assessment of the performance of FCMs on a simple, rapid, computer-based, multitasking battery is feasible as an approach to determine their readiness to perform critical safety tasks through the SYNWIN task battery.

The Risk of Highly Pathogenic Influenza A Virus Transmission to Turkey Hen Flocks Through Artificial Insemination.

Artificial insemination is a routine practice for turkeys that can introduce pathogens into breeder flocks in a variety of ways. In this manuscript, a risk analysis on the potential transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to naïve hens through artificial insemination is presented. A case of HPAI on a stud farm where the potential transmission of the virus to susceptible hens in the 2015 H5N2 HPAI outbreak in Minnesota is described along with documentation of known and potential transmission pathways from the case. The pathways by which artificial insemination might result in the spread of HPAI to susceptible hens were determined by considering which could result in the 1) entry of HPAI virus onto a premises through semen movement; and 2) exposure of susceptible hens to HPAI as a result of this movement. In the reported case, HPAI virus was detected in semen from infected toms, however, transmission of HPAI to naïve hens through semen is unclear since the in utero infectious dose is not known. This means that the early detection of infection might limit but not eliminate the risk of hen exposure. Because of the numerous potential pathways of spread and the close contact with the birds, it is highly likely that if semen from an HPAI-infected tom flock is used, there will be spread of the virus to naïve hens through insemination. If insemination occurs with semen from stud farms in an HPAI control area, receiving hen farms should have restricted movements to prevent outbreak spread in the event that they become infected.

Artículo regular­Riesgo de transmisión del virus de la influenza A altamente patógeno a parvadas de pavos hembras mediante inseminación artificial. La inseminación artificial es una práctica de rutina para los pavos que puede introducir patógenos en las parvadas de reproductores de diversas formas. En este manuscrito, se presenta un análisis de riesgo sobre la posible transmisión de la influenza aviar altamente patógena a gallinas susceptibles mediante inseminación artificial. Un caso de influenza aviar altamente patógena en una granja de machos sementales donde se describe la posible transmisión del virus a gallinas susceptibles en el brote de influenza aviar altamente patógena H5N2 del año 2015 en Minnesota, junto con la documentación de las vías de transmisión conocidas y potenciales del caso. Las vías por las cuales la inseminación artificial podría resultar en la propagación de la influenza aviar altamente patógena a las gallinas susceptibles se determinaron considerando cuáles podrían resultar en 1) la entrada del virus de la influenza aviar altamente patógena en una granja a través del movimiento del semen; y 2) exposición de gallinas susceptibles a la influenza aviar altamente patógena como resultado de este movimiento. Sin embargo, se demostró la detección del virus de la influenza aviar altamente patógena en el semen de machos infectados. Debido a que se desconoce la dosis infecciosa del virus de la influenza aviar administrada en el útero necesaria para transmitir la influenza aviar altamente patógena a las gallinas susceptibles, está claro que la detección de la infección no puede ser la única estrategia de contención. La detección temprana de la infección puede limitar, pero no eliminar, el riesgo de exposición de las gallinas. Debido a las numerosas vías potenciales de propagación y al estrecho contacto con las aves, es muy probable que si se usa semen de una parvada de machos infectados con influenza aviar de alta patogenicidad, se propague el virus a gallinas susceptibles a través de la inseminación. Si la inseminación ocurre con semen de granjas de sementales en un área de control de influenza aviar de alta patogenicidad, las granjas de gallinas receptoras deben tener movimientos restringidos para prevenir la propagación del brote en caso de que se infecten.

Supporting business continuity during a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak: a collaboration of industry, academia, and government.

Since 2006, a collaborative group of egg industry, state, federal, and academia representatives have worked to enhance preparedness in highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) planning. The collaborative group has created a draft egg product movement protocol, which calls for realistic, science-based contingency plans, biosecurity assessments, commodity risk assessments, and real-time reverse transcriptase-PCR testing to support the continuity of egg operations while also preventing and eradicating an HPAI outbreak. The work done by this group serves as an example of how industry, government, and academia can work together to achieve better preparedness in the event of an animal health emergency. In addition, in the event of an HPAI outbreak in domestic poultry, U.S. consumers will be assured that their egg products come from healthy chickens.

Planning "Plan B": The Case of Moving Cattle From an Infected Feedlot Premises During a Hypothetical Widespread FMD Outbreak in the United States.

In the event of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United States, "stamping out" FMD infected premises has been proposed as the method of choice for the control of outbreaks. However, if a widespread, catastrophic FMD outbreak in the U.S. were to occur, alternative solutions to stamping out may be required, particularly for large feedlots with over 10,000 cattle. Such strategies include moving cattle from infected or not known to be infected operations to slaughter facilities either with or without prior implementation of vaccination. To understand the risk of these strategies, it is important to estimate levels of herd viremia. Multiple factors must be considered when determining risk and feasibility of moving cattle from a feedlot to a slaughter facility during an FMD outbreak. In addition to modeling within-herd disease spread to estimate prevalence of viremic animals, we explore potential pathways for viral spread associated with the movement of asymptomatic beef cattle (either pre-clinical or recovered) from an infected feedlot premises to offsite harvest facilities. This analysis was proactive in nature, however evaluation of the likelihood of disease spread relative to disease (infection) phase, time of movement, and vaccination status are all factors which should be considered in managing and containing a large-scale FMD outbreak in the United States.

A Risk-Based Permitting Process for the Managed Movement of Animals and Products of Animal Origin as a Tool for Disease Management.

During a foreign animal disease (FAD) outbreak, in addition to detecting, controlling, containing, and eradicating the FAD, one of the goals of response in the United States (US), and many other countries, is to allow the managed movement of non-infected animals and non-contaminated animal products from within FAD control areas to facilitate continuity of business (COB). Permits issued by government authorities are the mechanism by which such managed movements are allowed in the US, resulting in permitted movements. The overall purpose of issuing permits during an outbreak is to minimize the risk of disease spread while still allowing movement of products or animals; thus, the risk associated with each permitted movement must be considered. Currently, there are federal guidelines for the various permit types and purposes. These guidelines state that permits should be "based on science and risk-based information." However, federal guidelines with specific procedures to determine risk are not readily available nor do they explicitly enumerate measures to assist regulatory authorities in using risk to guide decisions to grant permitted movement or deny a request to move. Although some pro-active risk assessments (RAs) have been conducted to determine risk of moving certain animals and their products, there will always be animal and product movements for which no pro-active RAs exist. We present here a process description of steps to conduct risk-based permitting with appropriate resource allocation to permitting by industry and regulatory authorities during an FAD outbreak.

Modeling the Transmission of Foot and Mouth Disease to Inform Transportation of Infected Carcasses to a Disposal Site During an Outbreak Event.

In the event of a Food and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the United States, an infected livestock premises is likely to result in a high number of carcasses (swine and/or cattle) as a result of depopulation. If relocating infected carcasses to an off-site disposal site is allowed, the virus may have increased opportunity to spread to uninfected premises and result in exposure of susceptible livestock. A stochastic within-herd disease spread model was used to predict the time to detect the disease by observation of clinical signs within the herd, and the number of animals in different disease stages over time. Expert opinion was elicited to estimate depopulation parameters in various scenarios. Disease detection was assumed when 5% of the population showed clinical signs by direct observation. Time to detection (5 and 95th percentile values) was estimated for all swine farm sizes (500-10,000 head) ranged from 102 to 282 h, from 42 to 216 h for all dairy cattle premises sizes (100-2,000 head) and from 66 to 240 h for all beef cattle premises sizes (5,000-50,000 head). Total time from infection to beginning depopulation (including disease detection and confirmation) for the first FMD infected case was estimated between 8.5-14.3 days for swine, 6-12.8 days for dairy or beef cattle premises. Total time estimated for subsequent FMD cases was between 6.8-12.3 days for swine, 4.3-10.8 days for dairy and 4.5-10.5 days for beef cattle premises. On an average sized operation, a sizable proportion of animals in the herd (34-56% of swine, 48-60% of dairy cattle, and 47-60% of beef cattle for the first case and 49-60% of swine, 55-60% of dairy cattle, 56-59% of beef cattle for subsequent cases) would be viremic at the time of beginning depopulation. A very small fraction of body fluids from the carcasses (i.e., 1 mL) would contain virus that greatly exceeds the minimum infectious dose by oral (4-7x) or inhalation (7-13x) route for pigs and cattle.

Mortality-Based Triggers and Premovement Testing Protocols for Detection of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Commercial Upland Game Birds.

Outbreaks involving avian influenza viruses are often devastating to the poultry industry economically and otherwise. Disease surveillance is critically important because it facilitates timely detection and generates confidence that infected birds are not moved during business continuity intended to mitigate associated economic losses. The possibility of using an abnormal increase in daily mortality to levels that exceed predetermined thresholds as a trigger to initiate further diagnostic investigations for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus infection in the flock is explored. The range of optimal mortality thresholds varies by bird species, trigger type, and mortality thresholds, and these should be considered when assessing sector-specific triggers. The study uses purposefully collected data and data from the literature to determine optimal mortality triggers for HPAI detection in commercial upland game bird flocks. Three trigger types were assessed for the ability to detect rapidly both HPAI (on the basis of disease-induced and normal mortality data) and false alarm rate (on the basis of normal mortality data); namely, 1) exceeding a set absolute threshold on one day, 2) exceeding a set absolute threshold on two consecutive days, or 3) exceeding a multiple of a seven-day moving average. The likelihood of disease detection using some of these triggers together with premovement real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR) testing was examined. Results indicate that the performance of the two consecutive days trigger had the best metrics (i.e., rapid detection with few false alarms) in the trade-off analysis. The collected normal mortality data was zero on 66% of all days recorded, with an overall mean of 0.6 dead birds per day. In the surveillance scenario analyses, combining the default protocol that relied only on active surveillance (i.e., premovement testing of oropharyngeal swab samples from dead birds by rRT-PCR) together with either of the mortality-based triggers improved detection rates on all days postexposure before scheduled movement. For exposures occurring within 8 days of movement, the protocol that combined the default with single-day triggers had slightly more detections than that with two consecutive days triggers. However, all assessed protocol combinations were able to detect all infections that occurred more than 10 days before scheduled movement. These findings can inform risk-based decisions pertaining to continuity of business in the commercial upland game bird industry.

Activadores basados en la mortalidad y protocolos de pruebas de premovimiento para la detección de la infección del virus de influenza aviar altamente patógena en aves de caza de tierras altas comerciales Los brotes que involucran virus de influenza aviar a menudo son económicamente devastadores para la industria avícola. La vigilancia de enfermedades es de importancia crítica porque facilita la detección oportuna y genera confianza en que las aves infectadas no serán movilizadas para continuar con la operación de las industrias avícolas para mitigar las pérdidas económicas asociadas. Se explora la posibilidad de utilizar un aumento anormal en la mortalidad diaria a niveles que excedan umbrales predeterminados como un desencadenante para iniciar investigaciones de diagnóstico para la infección del virus de la influenza aviar altamente patógena en la parvada. El rango de umbrales de mortalidad óptimos varían según la especie de ave, el tipo de activador y los umbrales de mortalidad y estos deben considerarse al evaluar los activadores específicos del sector. El estudio utiliza datos recopilados de manera planeada y datos de la literatura para determinar los desencadenantes de mortalidad óptimos para la detección de la influenza aviar altamente patógena en las parvadas comerciales de aves de caza de tierras altas. Se evaluaron tres activadores de acuerdo a su capacidad de detectar rápidamente influenza aviar altamente patógena (en función de los datos de mortalidad normal e inducida por la enfermedad) y la tasa de falsa alarma (en función de los datos de mortalidad normal); como son, 1) que se exceda un umbral absoluto establecido en un día, 2) que se exceda un umbral absoluto establecido en dos días consecutivos, o 3) que excede un múltiplo de un promedio móvil de siete días. Se examinó la probabilidad de detección de la enfermedad utilizando algunos de estos desencadenantes junto con la prueba de transcripción reversa y PCR en tiempo real (rRT-PCR). Los resultados indicaron que el rendimiento del disparador de dos días consecutivos tuvo los mejores resultados (es decir, detección rápida con pocas falsas alarmas) en el análisis costo-beneficio. Los datos de mortalidad normal recopilados fueron cero en el 66% de todos los días registrados, con una media general de 0.6 aves muertas por día. En los análisis de escenarios de vigilancia, la combinación del protocolo predeterminado que se basó únicamente en la vigilancia activa (por ejemplo pruebas antes de movilizaciones con muestras de hisopos orofaríngeos por rRT-PCR de aves muertas) a la par con cualquiera de los desencadenantes basados en la mortalidad mejoraron las tasas de detección en todos los días posteriores a la exposición antes del movimiento programado. Para las exposiciones que ocurrieron dentro de los ocho días de movimiento, el protocolo que combinó el valor predeterminado con los activadores de un solo día tuvo un poco más de detecciones que el de los activadores de dos días consecutivos. Sin embargo, todas las combinaciones de protocolos evaluadas pudieron detectar todas las infecciones que ocurrieron por más de 10 días antes del movimiento programado. Estos hallazgos pueden proveer información para la toma de decisiones basadas en el riesgo relacionadas con la continuidad de operaciones en la industria comercial de aves de caza de tierras altas.