Transmission from vaccinated individuals in a large SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak.

An outbreak of over 1,000 COVID-19 cases in Provincetown, Massachusetts (MA), in July 2021-the first large outbreak mostly in vaccinated individuals in the US-prompted a comprehensive public health response, motivating changes to national masking recommendations and raising questions about infection and transmission among vaccinated individuals. To address these questions, we combined viral genomic and epidemiological data from 467 individuals, including 40% of outbreak-associated cases. The Delta variant accounted for 99% of cases in this dataset; it was introduced from at least 40 sources, but 83% of cases derived from a single source, likely through transmission across multiple settings over a short time rather than a single event. Genomic and epidemiological data supported multiple transmissions of Delta from and between fully vaccinated individuals. However, despite its magnitude, the outbreak had limited onward impact in MA and the US overall, likely due to high vaccination rates and a robust public health response.

Single-Cell Profiling of Ebola Virus Disease In Vivo Reveals Viral and Host Dynamics.

Ebola virus (EBOV) causes epidemics with high mortality yet remains understudied due to the challenge of experimentation in high-containment and outbreak settings. Here, we used single-cell transcriptomics and CyTOF-based single-cell protein quantification to characterize peripheral immune cells during EBOV infection in rhesus monkeys. We obtained 100,000 transcriptomes and 15,000,000 protein profiles, finding that immature, proliferative monocyte-lineage cells with reduced antigen-presentation capacity replace conventional monocyte subsets, while lymphocytes upregulate apoptosis genes and decline in abundance. By quantifying intracellular viral RNA, we identify molecular determinants of tropism among circulating immune cells and examine temporal dynamics in viral and host gene expression. Within infected cells, EBOV downregulates STAT1 mRNA and interferon signaling, and it upregulates putative pro-viral genes (e.g., DYNLL1 and HSPA5), nominating pathways the virus manipulates for its replication. This study sheds light on EBOV tropism, replication dynamics, and elicited immune response and provides a framework for characterizing host-virus interactions under maximum containment.

GABA Signaling Stimulates ß Cell Regeneration in Diabetic Mice.

GABA and the antimalarial drug artemether, which acts on GABAergic pathways, can drive pancreatic cells with an α-cell phenotype toward a ß-cell-like phenotype. As reported in two papers (Ben-Othman et al. and Li et al.), these drugs can stimulate the production of sufficient numbers of new ß-like cells to reverse severe diabetes in mice.

Questioning the fetal microbiome illustrates pitfalls of low-biomass microbial studies.

Whether the human fetus and the prenatal intrauterine environment (amniotic fluid and placenta) are stably colonized by microbial communities in a healthy pregnancy remains a subject of debate. Here we evaluate recent studies that characterized microbial populations in human fetuses from the perspectives of reproductive biology, microbial ecology, bioinformatics, immunology, clinical microbiology and gnotobiology, and assess possible mechanisms by which the fetus might interact with microorganisms. Our analysis indicates that the detected microbial signals are likely the result of contamination during the clinical procedures to obtain fetal samples or during DNA extraction and DNA sequencing. Furthermore, the existence of live and replicating microbial populations in healthy fetal tissues is not compatible with fundamental concepts of immunology, clinical microbiology and the derivation of germ-free mammals. These conclusions are important to our understanding of human immune development and illustrate common pitfalls in the microbial analyses of many other low-biomass environments. The pursuit of a fetal microbiome serves as a cautionary example of the challenges of sequence-based microbiome studies when biomass is low or absent, and emphasizes the need for a trans-disciplinary approach that goes beyond contamination controls by also incorporating biological, ecological and mechanistic concepts.

Inherent mosaicism and extensive mutation of human placentas.

Placentas can exhibit chromosomal aberrations that are absent from the fetus1. The basis of this genetic segregation, which is known as confined placental mosaicism, remains unknown. Here we investigated the phylogeny of human placental cells as reconstructed from somatic mutations, using whole-genome sequencing of 86 bulk placental samples (with a median weight of 28 mg) and of 106 microdissections of placental tissue. We found that every bulk placental sample represents a clonal expansion that is genetically distinct, and exhibits a genomic landscape akin to that of childhood cancer in terms of mutation burden and mutational imprints. To our knowledge, unlike any other healthy human tissue studied so far, the placental genomes often contained changes in copy number. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships between tissues from the same pregnancy, which revealed that developmental bottlenecks genetically isolate placental tissues by separating trophectodermal lineages from lineages derived from the inner cell mass. Notably, there were some cases with full segregation-within a few cell divisions of the zygote-of placental lineages and lineages derived from the inner cell mass. Such early embryonic bottlenecks may enable the normalization of zygotic aneuploidy. We observed direct evidence for this in a case of mosaic trisomic rescue. Our findings reveal extensive mutagenesis in placental tissues and suggest that mosaicism is a typical feature of placental development.

Human placenta has no microbiome but can contain potential pathogens.

We sought to determine whether pre-eclampsia, spontaneous preterm birth or the delivery of infants who are small for gestational age were associated with the presence of bacterial DNA in the human placenta. Here we show that there was no evidence for the presence of bacteria in the large majority of placental samples, from both complicated and uncomplicated pregnancies. Almost all signals were related either to the acquisition of bacteria during labour and delivery, or to contamination of laboratory reagents with bacterial DNA. The exception was Streptococcus agalactiae (group B Streptococcus), for which non-contaminant signals were detected in approximately 5% of samples collected before the onset of labour. We conclude that bacterial infection of the placenta is not a common cause of adverse pregnancy outcome and that the human placenta does not have a microbiome, but it does represent a potential site of perinatal acquisition of S. agalactiae, a major cause of neonatal sepsis.

Author Correction: Human placenta has no microbiome but can contain potential pathogens.

An Amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Extended panel testing in ovarian cancer reveals BRIP1 as the third most important predisposition gene.

PURPOSE: The prevalence of germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in homologous recombination repair (HRR) and Lynch syndrome (LS) genes in ovarian cancer (OC) is uncertain. METHODS: An observational study reporting the detection rate of germline PVs in HRR and LS genes in all OC cases tested in the North West Genomic Laboratory Hub between September 1996 and May 2024. Effect sizes are reported using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for unselected cases tested between April 2021 and May 2024 versus 50,703 controls from the Breast Cancer Risk after Diagnostic Gene Sequencing study. RESULTS: 2934 women were tested for BRCA1/2 and 433 (14.8%) had a PV. In up to 1572 women tested for PVs in non-BRCA1/2 HRR genes, detection rates were PALB2 = 0.8%, BRIP1 = 1.1%, RAD51C = 0.4% and RAD51D = 0.4%. In 940 unselected cases, BRIP1 (OR = 8.7, 95% CI 4.6-15.8) was the third most common OC predisposition gene followed by RAD51C (OR = 8.3, 95% CI 3.1-23.1), RAD51D (OR = 6.5, 95% CI 2.1-19.7), and PALB2 (OR = 3.9, 95% CI 1.5-10.3). No PVs in LS genes were detected in unselected cases. CONCLUSION: Panel testing in OC resulted in a detection rate of 2% to 3% for germline PVs in non-BRCA1/2 HRR genes, with the largest contributor being BRIP1. Screening for LS in unselected cases of OC is unnecessary.

Cardiac glycosides protect wormseed wallflower (Erysimum cheiranthoides) against some, but not all, glucosinolate-adapted herbivores.

The chemical arms race between plants and insects is foundational to the generation and maintenance of biological diversity. We asked how the evolution of a novel defensive compound in an already well-defended plant lineage impacts interactions with diverse herbivores. Erysimum cheiranthoides (Brassicaceae), which produces both ancestral glucosinolates and novel cardiac glycosides, served as a model. We analyzed gene expression to identify cardiac glycoside biosynthetic enzymes in E. cheiranthoides and characterized these enzymes via heterologous expression and CRISPR/Cas9 knockout. Using E. cheiranthoides cardiac glycoside-deficient lines, we conducted insect experiments in both the laboratory and field. EcCYP87A126 initiates cardiac glycoside biosynthesis via sterol side-chain cleavage, and EcCYP716A418 has a role in cardiac glycoside hydroxylation. In EcCYP87A126 knockout lines, cardiac glycoside production was eliminated. Laboratory experiments with these lines revealed that cardiac glycosides were highly effective defenses against two species of glucosinolate-tolerant specialist herbivores, but did not protect against all crucifer-feeding specialist herbivores in the field. Cardiac glycosides had lesser to no effect on two broad generalist herbivores. These results begin elucidation of the E. cheiranthoides cardiac glycoside biosynthetic pathway and demonstrate in vivo that cardiac glycoside production allows Erysimum to escape from some, but not all, specialist herbivores.

Association between adverse pregnancy outcome and placental biomarkers in the first trimester: A prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the inter-relationships between five first-trimester biomarkers (pregnancy associated plasma protein A [PAPP-A], alpha-fetoprotein [AFP], beta human chorionic gonadotrophin [beta-hCG], placenta growth factor [PlGF] and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase receptor-1 [sFlt-1]) and a range of adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of nulliparous singleton pregnancy. SETTING: Cambridge, UK. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: 4056 pregnancy outcome prediction study participants. METHODS: The biomarker concentrations were measured in maternal serum at ~12 weeks of gestation. Univariable analysis of APOs was performed using logistic regression. Multivariable analysis used best subsets logistic regression with cross-validation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pre-eclampsia (PE), small for gestational age (SGA), including severe SGA (birthweight <3rd), fetal growth restriction (FGR), preterm birth (PTB, both induced and spontaneous [iPTB and sPTB, respectively]), pre-viable loss and stillbirth, plus combinations of outcomes. RESULTS: Lower values of PAPP-A, PlGF and sFlt-1 and higher values of AFP were associated with FGR (OR for 1 SD higher value 0.59 [95% CI 0.48-0.74], OR 0.56 [95% CI 0.44-0.70], OR 0.68 [95% CI 0.54-0.87] and OR 1.53 [95% CI 1.25-1.88]), severe SGA (OR 0.59 [95% CI 0.49-0.72], OR 0.71 [95% CI 0.57-0.87], OR 0.74 [95% CI 0.60-0.91] and OR 1.41 [95% CI 1.17-1.71]), sPTB (OR 0.61 [95% CI 0.50-0.73], OR 0.79 [95% CI 0.66-0.96], OR 0.57 [95% CI 0.47-0.70] and OR 1.41 [95% CI 1.18-1.67]) and iPTB (OR 0.72 [95% CI 0.57-0.91], OR 0.62 [95% CI 0.49-0.78], OR 0.71 [95% CI 0.56-0.90] and OR 1.44 [95% CI 1.16-1.78]), respectively. When combinations of biomarkers were assessed, PAPP-A and AFP were independently associated with severe SGA; PAPP-A alone with PE + PTB; PlGF alone with severe PE; PlGF, beta-hCG, AFP and PAPP-A with the combination of PE and SGA; AFP and sFlt-1 with sPTB; and AFP and PlGF with iPTB. CONCLUSIONS: Combinations of first-trimester placental biomarkers are associated with APOs. However, the patterns vary for different types of APO, indicating heterogeneity in the underlying pathophysiological pathways.

Once daily cediranib and weekly paclitaxel to prevent malignant bowel obstruction in at-risk patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (CEBOC): a single-arm, phase II safety trial.

OBJECTIVE: Cytotoxic chemotherapy for ovarian cancer can be augmented by co-administration of vascular endothelial growth factor inhibitors but these are contraindicated in patients with bowel obstruction due to the risk of gastrointestinal perforation. We evaluated the safety and feasibility of paclitaxel plus cediranib to treat patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer at risk of malignant bowel obstruction. METHODS: A phase II trial included eligible patients between March 2018 and February 2021, identified by clinical symptoms and radiographic risk factors for malignant bowel obstruction. Cediranib (20 mg/day) was added to paclitaxel (70 mg/m2/week) within 9 weeks of starting paclitaxel if pretreatment bowel symptoms had improved. The primary endpoint was the number of patients treated for ≥5 days with cediranib that were free of grade 3-5 gastrointestinal perforation or fistula. Secondary endpoints were hospitalization for bowel obstruction, grade ≥3 adverse events, treatment compliance assessed by relative dose intensity, objective response, progression-free survival, and overall survival. RESULTS: Thirty patients were recruited. Of these, 12 received paclitaxel alone and 17 received paclitaxel and cediranib in combination. One patient died before starting treatment. No patient developed a grade 3-5 gastrointestinal perforation or fistula (one sided 95% confidence interval (CI) upper limit 0.16). One patient required hospitalization for bowel obstruction but recovered with conservative management. The most common cediranib-related grade ≥3 adverse events were fatigue (3/17), diarrhorea (2/17), and hypomagnesemia (2/17). Relative dose intensity for paclitaxel was 90% (interquartile range (IQR) 85-100%; n=29) and for cediranib 88% (IQR 76-93%; n=17). The objective response in patients who received paclitaxel and cediranib was 65.0% (one complete and 10 partial responses). Median progression-free survival was 6.9 months (95% CI 4.4-11.5 months; n=17) and overall survival was 19.4 months (95% CI 10.1-20.4 months; n=17). Median follow-up was 12.4 months (8.9-not reached; n=17). CONCLUSIONS: The unexpectedly high withdrawal rate during paclitaxel alone, before introducing cediranib, meant we were unable to definitely conclude that paclitaxel plus cediranib did not cause gastrointestinal perforation or fistula. The regimen was however tolerated. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT 2016-004618-93.

Pandemic lockdowns: who feels coerced and why? - a study on perceived coercion, perceived pressures and procedural justice during the UK COVID-19 lockdowns.

BACKGROUND: This study examined perceptions of coercion, pressures and procedural injustice and how such perceptions influenced psychological well-being in those who experienced a UK COVID-19 lockdown, with a view to preparing for the possibility of future lockdowns. METHODS: 40 individuals categorised as perceiving the lockdown(s) as either highly or lowly coercive took part in one of six asynchronous virtual focus groups (AVFGs). RESULTS: Using thematic analysis, the following key themes were identified in participants' discussions: (1) Choice, control and freedom; (2) threats; (3) fairness; (4) circumstantial factors; and (5) psychological factors. CONCLUSIONS: As the first qualitative study to investigate the psychological construct of perceived coercion in relation to COVID-19 lockdowns, its findings suggest that the extent to which individuals perceived pandemic-related lockdowns as coercive may have been linked to their acceptance of restrictions. Preparing for future pandemics should include consideration of perceptions of coercion and efforts to combat this, particularly in relation to differences in equity, in addition to clarity of public health messaging and public engagement.

Physiologically relevant culture medium Plasmax improves human placental trophoblast stem cell function.

Human trophoblast cultures provide powerful tools to model key processes of placental development. In vitro trophoblast studies to date have relied on commercial media that contains nonphysiological levels of nutrients, and the impact of these conditions on trophoblast metabolism and function is unknown. Here, we show that the physiological medium (Plasmax) with nutrient and metabolite concentrations recapitulating human plasma improves human trophoblast stem cell (hTSC) proliferation and differentiation compared with standard medium (DMEM-F12). hTSCs cultured in Plasmax-based medium also show altered glycolytic and mitochondrial metabolism, as well as reduced S-adenosylmethionine/S-adenosyl-homocysteine ratio compared with DMEM-F12-based medium. These findings demonstrate the importance of the nutritional environment for phenotyping cultured human trophoblasts.

Distinguishing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Persistence and Reinfection: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection is poorly understood, partly because few studies have systematically applied genomic analysis to distinguish reinfection from persistent RNA detection related to initial infection. We aimed to evaluate the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and persistent RNA detection using independent genomic, clinical, and laboratory assessments. METHODS: All individuals at a large academic medical center who underwent a SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) ≥45 days after an initial positive test, with both tests between 14 March and 30 December 2020, were analyzed for potential reinfection. Inclusion criteria required having ≥2 positive NAATs collected ≥45 days apart with a cycle threshold (Ct) value <35 at repeat testing. For each included subject, likelihood of reinfection was assessed by viral genomic analysis of all available specimens with a Ct value <35, structured Ct trajectory criteria, and case-by-case review by infectious diseases physicians. RESULTS: Among 1569 individuals with repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing ≥45 days after an initial positive NAAT, 65 (4%) met cohort inclusion criteria. Viral genomic analysis characterized mutations present and was successful for 14/65 (22%) subjects. Six subjects had genomically supported reinfection, and 8 subjects had genomically supported persistent RNA detection. Compared to viral genomic analysis, clinical and laboratory assessments correctly distinguished reinfection from persistent RNA detection in 12/14 (86%) subjects but missed 2/6 (33%) genomically supported reinfections. CONCLUSIONS: Despite good overall concordance with viral genomic analysis, clinical and Ct value-based assessments failed to identify 33% of genomically supported reinfections. Scaling-up genomic analysis for clinical use would improve detection of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections.

Diversity and divergence: evolution of secondary metabolism in the tropical tree genus Inga.

Plants are widely recognized as chemical factories, with each species producing dozens to hundreds of unique secondary metabolites. These compounds shape the interactions between plants and their natural enemies. We explore the evolutionary patterns and processes by which plants generate chemical diversity, from evolving novel compounds to unique chemical profiles. We characterized the chemical profile of one-third of the species of tropical rainforest trees in the genus Inga (c. 100, Fabaceae) using ultraperformance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based metabolomics and applied phylogenetic comparative methods to understand the mode of chemical evolution. We show: each Inga species contain structurally unrelated compounds and high levels of phytochemical diversity; closely related species have divergent chemical profiles, with individual compounds, compound classes, and chemical profiles showing little-to-no phylogenetic signal; at the evolutionary time scale, a species' chemical profile shows a signature of divergent adaptation. At the ecological time scale, sympatric species were the most divergent, implying it is also advantageous to maintain a unique chemical profile from community members; finally, we integrate these patterns with a model for how chemical diversity evolves. Taken together, these results show that phytochemical diversity and divergence are fundamental to the ecology and evolution of plants.

Group B Streptococcus and the risk of perinatal morbidity and mortality following term labor.

Streptococcus agalactiae (group B Streptococcus) colonizes the genital tract of approximately 20% of pregnant women. In the absence of intervention, approximately 1% of infants born to colonized mothers exhibit a clinical infection. This has led to implementation of screening and intervention in the form of intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis in many countries, including the United States. However, screening has not been introduced in a substantial minority of other countries because of the absence of supportive level 1 evidence, the very large number needed to treat to prevent 1 case, and concerns about antimicrobial resistance. Optimal screening would involve rapid turnaround (to facilitate intrapartum testing) and report antibiotic sensitivity, but no such method exists. There is significant scope for a personalized medicine approach, targeting intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis to cases at greatest risk, but the pathogen and host factors determining the risk of invasive disease are incompletely understood. Epidemiologic data have indicated the potential of prelabor invasion of the uterus by group B Streptococcus, and metagenomic analysis revealed the presence of group B Streptococcus in the placenta in approximately 5% of pregnant women at term before onset of labor and membrane rupture. However, the determinants and consequences of prelabor invasion of the uterus by group B Streptococcus remain to be established. The vast majority (98%) of invasive neonatal disease is caused by 6 serotypes, and hexavalent vaccines against these serotypes have completed phase 2 trials. However, an obstacle to phase 3 studies is conducting an adequately powered trial to demonstrate clinical effectiveness given that early-onset disease affects approximately 1 in 1000 births in the absence of vaccination.

Maternal high body mass index, but not gestational diabetes, is associated with poorer educational attainment in mid-childhood.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that gestational diabetes mellitus is associated with poorer cognitive outcomes in children. However, confounding factors, especially maternal body mass index, have been poorly accounted for. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the independent associations between maternal body mass index, gestational diabetes mellitus status, and educational outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Antenatal data from a prospective birth cohort (Pregnancy Outcome Prediction Study, 2008-2012, Cambridge, United Kingdom) were linked to mid-childhood educational outcomes (Department for Education, United Kingdom). A total of 3249 children born at term were stratified by maternal gestational diabetes mellitus status and body mass index at booking (<25 vs ≥25 kg/m2). Regression models adjusted for relevant maternal, child, and socioeconomic factors were used to determine associations with academic outcomes at ages of 5 to 7 years. RESULTS: No differences in educational attainment were found between children exposed to gestational diabetes mellitus and nonexposed children. Neither maternal glucose levels measured at 11 to 14 or 24 to 28 weeks, nor acceleration of the fetal abdominal circumference growth velocity were related to educational attainment at ages of 5 to 7 years. Children of mothers with booking body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 (vs <25 kg/m2) were ∼50% more likely to not meet expected educational standards regardless of gestational diabetes mellitus status (age 5: adjusted odds ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-1.74; P<.001; age 6: adjusted odds ratio, 1.61; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.02; P<.001). The association between maternal body mass index and offspring educational attainment is dose-dependent and robust to stratification by gestational diabetes mellitus status and adjustment for socioeconomic factors. CONCLUSION: Mid-childhood educational attainment is not associated with maternal glucose status. This may provide important reassurance for pregnant women and clinicians. However, maternal body mass index is associated with lower childhood educational attainment and may be modifiable with intervention before or during pregnancy.

Maternal serum levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 and placental growth factor at 20 and 28 weeks of gestational age and the risk of spontaneous preterm birth.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous preterm birth is the endpoint of multiple different pathophysiological pathways. Fetal growth restriction, assessed by serial ultrasonic fetal biometry, has been shown to predict both preterm and early-term spontaneous labor. The soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 to placental growth factor ratio is predictive of early-term spontaneous labor, but its association with spontaneous preterm birth is unclear. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine whether maternal serum levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1, placental growth factor, and the soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1: placental growth factor ratio at 20 and 28 weeks' gestation, and the rate of change in these biomarkers between 20 and 28 weeks were predictive of risk of spontaneous preterm birth. STUDY DESIGN: The biomarkers were measured in maternal serum at 20- and 28-weeks' gestation in women recruited to a prospective cohort of unselected nulliparous women as part of the Pregnancy Outcome Prediction study in Cambridge, United Kingdom. The risk of spontaneous preterm birth was assessed using Cox regression and competing-risks regression. Associations from Cox regression were quantified by the adjusted hazard ratio for a 1 standard deviation higher level of a given biomarker or a 1 standard deviation increase in the marker between 20 and 28 weeks' gestation. A previously identified risk factor, slow femur length growth, was used as an additional predictor of spontaneous preterm birth for the purpose of risk stratification. RESULTS: Of the 3763 participants in the analysis, 95 (2.5%) had spontaneous preterm birth and 54 (1.4%) had medically indicated preterm birth. At 20 weeks' gestation, higher levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 and the soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1:placental growth factor ratio were associated with reduced risk of spontaneous preterm birth (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.75 [0.61-0.92]; P=.006 and 0.71 [0.59-0.87]; P=.0009, respectively). At 28 weeks' gestation, there was no association between either soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 or placental growth factor and the risk of spontaneous preterm birth, but there was a U-shaped relation with the soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1:placental growth factor ratio. However, when the biomarkers were quantified as the rate of increase between 20 and 28 weeks' gestation, there were strong positive associations between spontaneous preterm birth and rate of increase in soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (1.36 [1.13-1.63]; P=.001) and the soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1:placental growth factor ratio (1.50 [1.30-1.73]; P<.0001), and a strong negative association with the rate of increase in placental growth factor (0.71 [0.61-0.82]; P<.0001). Women who were in the highest decile of increase in the soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1:placental growth factor ratio and the lowest decile of femur length growth between 20 and 28 weeks' gestation had approximately 9-fold risk of spontaneous preterm birth (9.27 [4.21-20.37]; P<.0001). Competing-risks regression yielded similar results. CONCLUSION: Changing levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 and placental growth factor are indicative of placental dysfunction and are strongly associated with the risk of spontaneous preterm birth, especially when combined with slower fetal femur length growth.

Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using supervised machine learning on metabolomic data: A case-cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify and internally validate metabolites predictive of spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) using multiple machine learning methods and sequential maternal serum samples, and to predict spontaneous early term birth (sETB) using these metabolites. DESIGN: Case-cohort design within a prospective cohort study. SETTING: Cambridge, UK. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: A total of 399 Pregnancy Outcome Prediction study participants, including 98 cases of sPTB. METHODS: An untargeted metabolomic analysis of maternal serum samples at 12, 20, 28 and 36 weeks of gestation was performed. We applied six supervised machine learning methods and a weighted Cox model to measurements at 28 weeks of gestation and sPTB, followed by feature selection. We used logistic regression with elastic net penalty, followed by best subset selection, to reduce the number of predictive metabolites further. We applied coefficients from the chosen models to measurements from different gestational ages to predict sPTB and sETB. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: sPTB and sETB. RESULTS: We identified 47 metabolites, mostly lipids, as important predictors of sPTB by two or more methods and 22 were identified by three or more methods. The best 4-predictor model had an optimism-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.703 at 28 weeks of gestation. The model also predicted sPTB in 12-week samples (0.606, 95% CI 0.544-0.667) and 20-week samples (0.657, 95% CI 0.597-0.717) and it predicted sETB in 36-week samples (0.727, 95% CI 0.606-0.849). A lysolipid, 1-palmitoleoyl-GPE (16:1)*, was the strongest predictor of sPTB at 12 weeks of gestation (0.609, 95% CI 0.548-0.670), 20 weeks (0.630, 95% CI 0.569-0.690) and 28 weeks (0.660, 95% CI 0.599-0.722), and of sETB at 36 weeks (0.739, 95% CI 0.618-0.860). CONCLUSIONS: We identified and internally validated maternal serum metabolites predictive of sPTB. A lysolipid, 1-palmitoleoyl-GPE (16:1)*, is a novel predictor of sPTB and sETB. Further validation in external populations is required.