The price of precision: trade-offs between usability and validity in the World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment Tool for walking and cycling.

OBJECTIVES: The widely used World Health Organization (WHO) Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for walking and cycling quantifies health impacts in terms of premature deaths avoided or caused as a result of changes in active transport. This article attempts to assess the effect of incorporating 'life-years' as an impact measure to increase the precision of the model and assess the effect on the tool's usability. STUDY DESIGN: This article is a methods paper, using simulation to estimate the effect of a methodological change to the HEAT 4.2 physical activity module. METHODS: We use the widely used WHO HEAT for walking and cycling as a case study. HEAT currently quantifies health impacts in terms of premature deaths avoided or caused as a result of changes in active transport. We assess the effect of incorporating "duration of life gained" as an impact measure to increase the precision of the model without substantially affecting usability or increasing data requirements. RESULTS: Compared with the existing tool (HEAT version 4.2), which values premature deaths avoided, estimates derived by valuing life-years gained are more sensitive to the age of the population affected by an intervention, with results for older and younger age groups being markedly different between the two methods. This is likely to improve the precision of the tool, especially where it is applied to interventions that affect age groups differentially. The life-years method requires additional background data (obtained and used in this analysis) and minimal additional user inputs; however, this may also make the tool harder to explain to users. CONCLUSIONS: Methodological improvements in the precision of widely used tools, such as the HEAT, may also inadvertently reduce their practical usability. It is therefore important to consider the overall impact on the tool's value to stakeholders and explore ways of mitigating potential reductions in usability.

A predictive model for the home outdoor exposure to nitrogen dioxide.

The aim of this study is to find and test a predictive model that could be suitable to estimate the outdoor NO(2) concentrations at individual level, by integrating ecological measurements recorded by local monitoring stations with individual information collected by a questionnaire. For this purpose, the data from the Italian centres of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey II (ECRHS II) has been used. Outdoor NO(2) concentrations were measured using NO(2) passive sampling tubes (PS-NO(2)), exposed outdoor for 14 days, between January 2001 and January 2003. Simultaneously, average NO(2) concentrations were collected from all the monitoring stations of the three centres (MS-NO(2)). Individual measurements carried out with passive samplers were compared with the corresponding NO(2) 2-week concentrations obtained as the average of all local (background and traffic) monitoring stations (MS-NO(2)). A multiple linear regression model was fitted to the data using the 2-week PS-NO(2) concentrations as the response variable and questionnaire information and MS-NO(2) concentrations as predictors. The model minimizing the root mean square error (RMSE), obtained from a ten-fold cross validation, was selected. The model with the best predictive ability included centre, season of the survey, MS-NO(2) concentrations, type and age of building, residential area and reported intensity of heavy-duty traffic and explained the 68.9% of the variance. The non-parametric correlation between PS-NO(2) and the concentrations estimated by the model is 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.85). This study shows that over short periods (2 weeks) a good prediction of home outdoor exposure to NO(2) can be achieved by simply combining routinely collected ecological data with dwelling characteristics and self-reported intensity of heavy traffic. Further studies are needed to extend this prediction to long-term exposure.

Chronic bronchitis and urban air pollution in an international study.

OBJECTIVES: The chronic effects of urban air pollution are not well known. The authors' aim was to investigate the association between the prevalence and new onset of chronic bronchitis and urban air pollution. METHODS: Subjects from the general population randomly selected for the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS I) during 1991-93 in 21 centres in 10 countries were followed up from the years 2000 to 2002 (n = 3232 males and 3592 females; average response rate = 65.3%). PM2.5 and elements, with the same equipment at centre level, and home outdoor NO2 in 1634 individuals were measured. Hierarchical models were used. RESULTS: The prevalence and new onset of chronic phlegm during follow up were 6.9% and 4.5%, respectively, 5.3% in males and 3.5% in females. Smoking, rhinitis, poor education, and low social class were associated with (prevalence and new onset of) chronic phlegm in both genders, and occupational exposures in males and traffic intensity (adjusted odds ratio for constant traffic, OR = 1.86; 95% CI 1.24 to 2.77) as well as home outdoor NO2 (OR > 50 microg/m3v < 20 microg3 = 2.71; 95% CI 1.03 to 7.16) among females. PM2.5 and S content at centre level did not show any association with prevalence or new onset of chronic phlegm. Similar results were obtained with chronic productive cough. CONCLUSION: Individual markers of traffic at household level such as reported intensity and outdoor NO2 were risk factors for chronic bronchitis among females.

The health relevance of ambient particulate matter characteristics: coherence of toxicological and epidemiological inferences.

The aim of this article is to review progress toward integration of toxicological and epidemiological research results concerning the role of specific physicochemical properties, and associated sources, in the adverse impact of ambient particulate matter (PM) on public health. Contemporary knowledge about atmospheric aerosols indicates their complex and variable nature. This knowledge has influenced toxicological assessments, pointing to several possible properties of concern, including particle size and specific inorganic and organic chemical constituents. However, results from controlled exposure laboratory studies are difficult to relate to actual community health results because of ambiguities in simulated PM mixtures, inconsistent concentration measurements, and the wide range of different biological endpoints. The use of concentrated ambient particulates (CAPs) coupled with factor analysis has provided an improved understanding of biological effects from more realistic laboratory-based exposure studies. Epidemiological studies have provided information concerning sources of potentially toxic particles or components, adding insight into the significance of exposure to secondary particles, such as sulfate, compared with primary emissions, such as elemental and organic carbon from transportation sources. Recent epidemiological approaches incorporate experimental designs that take advantage of broadened speciation monitoring, multiple monitoring stations, source proximity designs, and emission intervention. However, there continue to be major gaps in knowledge about the relative toxicity of particles from various sources, and the relationship between toxicity and particle physicochemical properties. Advancing knowledge could be facilitated with cooperative toxicological and epidemiological study designs, with the support of findings from atmospheric chemistry.

Smoke-free cafe in an unregulated European city: highly welcomed and economically successful.

OBJECTIVE: In a unique setting with two identical cafes, which only differed in their smoking ordinances, this study assessed the influence of smoking policies on the choice of the cafe, investigated regulatory preferences among customers, and evaluated the claim that smoking cafes have better sales performance in a city without smoking bans. METHODS: In a parallel assessment, customers of both cafes answered a questionnaire. Sales were compared and air pollutants were measured to confirm air quality differences. RESULTS: The two customer groups (n = 177) differed only with regard to smoking status (p < 0.01). The smoking regulation was the most often cited selection criterion (83%). In the non-smoking café, 89% indicated that they were usually annoyed by smoke in coffee houses, and 62% would avoid or leave cafes for this reason. Two thirds stated that all cafe/restaurants should offer the opportunity of a smoke-free environment. However, almost half stated that mandatory regulations are not needed and that customers should make individual arrangements based on tolerance and courtesy. Those who were informed about the health effects of secondhand smoke were more likely to call for clear policies. Whereas sales showed no differences, tips were 22% (p < 0.001) higher in the non-smoking cafe. CONCLUSION: In a generation raised in smoking friendly environments, customers paradoxically ask for a landmark shift towards smoke-free opportunities, while substantially adhering to the tobacco industry paradigm of promoting "tolerance" rather than smoke-free policies. Given the clear preference of a large number of customers, hospitality businesses could, however, greatly profit from offering smoke-free environments even in the absence of regulatory policies.

Association between annoyance and individuals' values of nitrogen dioxide in a European setting.

INTRODUCTION: Annoyance caused by air pollution has been proposed as an indicator of exposure to air pollution. The aim of this study was to assess the geographical homogeneity of the relationship between annoyance and modelled home-based nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measurements. METHODS: The European Community Respiratory Health Survey II was conducted in 2000-1, in 25 European centres in 12 countries. This analysis included 4753 subjects (from 37 in Tartu, Estonia, to 532 in Antwerp, Belgium) who answered the annoyance question and with available outdoor residential NO2 (4399 modelled and 354 measured) including 20 cities from 10 countries. Annoyance as a result of air pollution was self-reported on an 11-point scale (0, no disturbance at all; 10, intolerable disturbance). Demographic and socioeconomic factors, smoking status and the presence of respiratory symptoms or disease were measured through a standard questionnaire. Negative binomial regression was used. RESULTS: The median NO2 concentration was 27 microg.m(-3) (from 10 in Umeå, Sweden, to 57 in Barcelona, Spain). The mean of annoyance was 2.5 (from 0.7 in Reykjavik, Iceland, to 4.4 in Huelva, Spain). NO2 was associated with annoyance (ratio of the mean score 1.26 per 10 microg.m(-3), 95% CI 1.19 to 1.34). The association between NO2 and annoyance was heterogeneous among cities (p for heterogeneity <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Annoyance is associated with home outdoor air pollution but with a different strength by city. This indicates that annoyance is not a valid surrogate for air pollution exposure. Nevertheless, it may be a useful measure of perceived ambient air quality and could be considered a complementary tool for health surveillance.